The next ten games

RedOctober3829 · Jul 21, 2014

If I were Ben, I wouldn't even look at the wild card. I'd only be focusing on the division. If the Sox are 6 games or less back in the division by the end of this stretch, I'd stand pat and go for it. Given that the deficit now is 7.5, that's not a far fetched scenario. 6 games in 2 months isn't that hard to make up.

TheoShmeo · Jul 21, 2014

I assume that Ben already knows and has charted out how he'll react to winning 0-3, 4-6, and 7-10 of the games, and what direction he'll go in.

Though the trend line, whether they suffer any key injuries and how the other teams are faring will all factor in, I suspect.

Ben esstentialy said that he would evaluate how they've done up until the deadline but will prepare to go either way in advance during his interview with D&C last week.

In Ben's shoes, I would not be a seller if the Sox win half or more of their ten games and have not suffered any key injuries. As bad as they've been this year, they have enough pitching to make a run, and the teams ahead of them are hardly the '27 Yankees. And we've all seen numerous teams come storming back from bigger deficits than this.

The trickiest situation is Lester. If Ben perceives the Sox to be out of it or most likely out of it, and if he perceives Lester as a goner (notwithstianding his public statements to the contrary), then it will be very hard not to salvage some value from his ace.

bosockboy · Jul 21, 2014

That's such an awful stretch for the O's we could be 3-4 back if we take care of our business. They have their shot.

dcmissle · Jul 21, 2014

My the NYY have a nice stretch here.

I would probe ground work for deals but would not pull any triggers until they clear Tor and TB and return home. Unless this road trip starts in a way I don't want to think about.

If this cost them a deal, fine. This could well be Lester's last 3 months In Boston, and I'm not pulling any plugs early given that they've started the second half on exactly the right note

IdiotKicker · Jul 21, 2014

I think the cutoff point for decision-making is at 7 wins. Below that, you look to move some pieces for prospects. Above it, you potentially look for some additions if the cost is right. You've got 4 starts with Lackey and Lester in that stretch, so in a perfect world, you'd like to grab those and then go .500 in your other games to get there. Huge stretch here against the teams you need to beat, so we're going to learn a lot about this team in the next two weeks.

bankshot1 · Jul 21, 2014

bankshot1 said:
I get it if the Sox are about 10-games out as we approach the trade deadline, then selling non-strategic assets (used to be called players) but whats the magic # in people's mind, that its worth staying mostly intact, and stay in the AL East race? I'm not a fan-boy, but I do think there's a reasonable chance to gain ground on the O's. I think it too early to bail on this seaso, but we are close. And some of the players (assets) being bandied about are worth keeping or trying to keep for '15.

I'm sticking with my opinio posted in deadline thread of, we ain't dead yet.

The Sox picked up 2-games this week-end, even though their relative position in the ALE did not change. I think there's a reasonable chance that the Sox pick-up another 2-games (they go 6-4, O's 4-6) and we gain ground on the O's and Toronto.

Other than Peavy, and maybe Gomes or Carp, I'm not a seller, but would look to add a hitter, but Rice circa '78 ain't there. I think the Sox personnel wise are pretty much who they are.

And Lester is pitching for the Sox in Fenway, the last series of the season, when the Sox clinch the ALE, against our longtime and respected foe.

MetSox1 · Jul 21, 2014

The Baltimore schedule is an absolute bear in this stretch. The Sox are only 4.5 games back of the yanks and Jays which is very doable, 7 back of the Orioles is where the trouble lies.

If the O's go .500 or better on this stretch, against those teams, I don't think there is any catching them from 7 games back even if the Sox get hot.

If the O's go 4-6 or worse, not only is the division wide open again (and will the Yankees be under a ton of pressure to buy at the deadline, which is somewhere between hilarious and horrifying) but the Sox will be right back in it with 6 wins or more.

I still probably hold except for Peavy if the O's falter and the Sox win 6, but if the Sox win 7+ with the O's stumbling, I'm selling out and looking for an impact player.

Edit: also, I'm concerned with Lackeys outings going into the break. If he doesn't pitch well in his two starts, I'm much more likely to sell.

jscola85 · Jul 21, 2014

MetSox1 said:
The Baltimore schedule is an absolute bear in this stretch. The Sox are only 4.5 games back of the yanks and Jays which is very doable, 7 back of the Orioles is where the trouble lies.

If the O's go .500 or better on this stretch, against those teams, I don't think there is any catching them from 7 games back even if the Sox get hot.

If the O's go 4-6 or worse, not only is the division wide open again (and will the Yankees be under a ton of pressure to buy at the deadline, which is somewhere between hilarious and horrifying) but the Sox will be right back in it with 6 wins or more.

I still probably hold except for Peavy if the O's falter and the Sox win 6, but if the Sox win 7+ with the O's stumbling, I'm selling out and looking for an impact player.

There's absolutely still a chance the Red Sox can catch the O's even if the O's go .500 in that stretch. The Sox still play them six times in September. While it is improbable that they could win all six of those, they could easily take 4 or 5 of them and close the gap by 2-4 games very quickly. That is the good thing about the remainder of the schedule - 36 of the remaining 64 games are against division rivals (56%). In the first 98 games, they've only played 38 divisional games, as a frame of reference.

This is why I agree that the division should be the focus. With all those games against each other, it's simply easier to see us leapfrogging up the standings.

EDIT - spelling

dcmissle · Jul 21, 2014

This really is the chart that never stops giving. Couple of other nuggets.

1. The team whose manager we live to hate has really made an impressive run, I think they were 15 games out of the division lead at one point, or close to it.

2. If I'm the Orioles and the Red Sox can't make up sufficient ground, I am all in for Lester at the deadline. Duquette has had a very nice year, but I don't see him having the pitching to make a serious WS run. Orioles are facing what seem to be almost permanent structural obstacles in this division, the legacy of a 15+ year Angelo's shit show.

It was not always that way. I'd give the RS whatever it takes, then I'd pay Lester whatever it takes to extend him within reason. Yes, they will need a Jason Werth style overpay to regain something of an equal footing longer term. Now is the time and Lester is the guy.

MetSox1 · Jul 21, 2014

jscola85 said:
There's absolutely still a chance the Red Sox can catch the O's even if the O's go .500 in that stretch. The Sox still play them six times in September. While it is improbable that they could win all six of those, they could easily take 4 or 5 of them and close the gap by 2-4 games very quickly. That is the good thing about the remainder of the schedule - 36 of the remaining 64 games are against division rivals (56%). In the first 98 games, they've only played 38 divisional games, as a frame of reference.

This is why I agree that the division should be the focus. With all those games against each other, it's simply easier to see us leapfrogging up the standings.

EDIT - spelling

My point was more that if the Orioles go .500+ against playoff teams with 7 of the 10 games on the road, they may actually be good. I know mathematically they are catch able, but if they finish strong, and going .500+ in this stretch would signal that they are, then no one is making up 7 games.

johnnywayback · Jul 21, 2014

For me, it would be not just our record over the next 10 games, but my assessment of the factors that would determine whether two months of excellent play is a likely scenario: whether Bradley's resurgence is real, whether Bogaerts wakes up, whether Pedroia/Ortiz get hot, whether Buchholz is really back, whether De La Rosa is really ready, etc.

But, honestly, I feel like whether I trade Lester depends on whether I think I'm resigning him. Whether I trade Uehara and Miller depends on whether I get blown away by an offer for either. Whether I trade anyone else outside of Peavy depends on what the offer is. And whether I trade Peavy depends on whether or not Brandon Workman is abducted by aliens.

In other words, I think a lot of my strategy over the next ten days would rely surprisingly little on whether the next ten days make me think winning the division is a 1.5% shot or a 15% shot. If I think Lester's about to walk and I can get a serious return for him now, or someone offers me six years of control over a legit bat for a late-inning reliever, I'd rather pursue that strategy even if it means giving up the 15% shot.

OCD SS · Jul 21, 2014

To me this is really only about whether the Sox sell off what they can for prospects; what the Sox need (extra offense from the OF or maybe SS) doesn't really look to be available, and I have a hard time seeing them add pitching (Philly price seems too high on Hamels, and that probably also extends to Lee). I'd be pleasantly surprised to be wrong, but the next 10 days is about who's leaving, and who's here in 2015.

glennhoffmania · Jul 21, 2014

While they're certainly still in it, it still seems like a significant long shot to me. They don't have to just play very good baseball for two plus months. They have to pass four other teams, so if one of them also plays very well they could still fall short despite going on a great run. I wouldn't sell off everything for a bunch of marginal prospects, but I definitely wouldn't act like buyers and I wouldn't turn down solid offers for several players that may help the team going forward.

The huge X factor obviously is Lester. If they really believe that they can't sign him and they are offered a Garza-type package I think they should take it. Holding onto him for a comp pick to try to make the playoffs this year seems short-sighted to me.

bankshot1 · Jul 21, 2014

Assuming no major trades are in the offing over the next 10 days, (I don't see them trading Lester for a few reasons already discussed) , IMO the X factor is the X factor. He could be the RH power bat they need.

His emergence from this miserable slump at some point this summer, could be critical to them making a run.

TomRicardo · Jul 21, 2014

Trade Peavy then look

Cumberland Blues · Jul 21, 2014

Speier's point about them looking for impact players is key - I think they're targeting the same guys regardless of their place in the standings on July 30 - they're looking to get better period.

I don't think anything they do over the next ten days changes anything trade-wise. I don't think they'll trade Lester or Uehara even if they go 0-10 because they want both of those guys back next year, and while trading them does not preclude them from re-signing them, it would seem to make doing so far less likely. And if they go 10-0, they're still a few games back with all the same question marks they have now so I don't see them giving up a bunch of future value just for a slightly smaller chance of coming up short in 2014. So the supporting bullpen guys, Peavy & Gomes are the guys who might be available - and any trades of those guys (w/ the exception of Miller) likely improves the 2014 edition even if the trade is made w/ more of an eye toward 2015 - the calculus doesn't change that much whether they're in or out for this year.

jscola85 · Jul 21, 2014

TomRicardo said:
Trade Peavy then look

Honestly I think they should trade Peavy whether they think they will be in it or not. Here's what Fangraphs projects for Peavy and Workman ROS:

Peavy - 4.21 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Workman - 4.63 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

To me, that's not enough of a gap to not at least throw Workman out there and see if he can show enough to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot next year, especially when you factor in that Peavy's BB rate has been almost a full walk higher per 9 than they are projecting, with no signs of declining.

bankshot1 · Jul 21, 2014

The "forgotten man" on the Sox is Felix Doubront. It seems he has been pushed down on the depth chart, I wonder if his future changes over the next 10 days.

koufax32 · Jul 21, 2014

jscola85 said:
Honestly I think they should trade Peavy whether they think they will be in it or not. Here's what Fangraphs projects for Peavy and Workman ROS:

Peavy - 4.21 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Workman - 4.63 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

To me, that's not enough of a gap to not at least throw Workman out there and see if he can show enough to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot next year, especially when you factor in that Peavy's BB rate has been almost a full walk higher per 9 than they are projecting, with no signs of declining.

To me, Peavy could be replaced by Webnaudman. If one seems to be on a hot streak then ride it. Peavy just doesn't really offer that possibility. Of course this doesn't take into account my wet dream of a couple Owens starts.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 21, 2014

bankshot1 said:
The "forgotten man" on the Sox is Felix Doubront. It seems he has been pushed down on the depth chart, I wonder if his future changes over the next 10 days.

Correct. I expected him to at least get a mop up inning yesterday

JimD · Jul 21, 2014

jscola85 said:
Honestly I think they should trade Peavy whether they think they will be in it or not. Here's what Fangraphs projects for Peavy and Workman ROS:

Peavy - 4.21 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Workman - 4.63 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

To me, that's not enough of a gap to not at least throw Workman out there and see if he can show enough to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot next year, especially when you factor in that Peavy's BB rate has been almost a full walk higher per 9 than they are projecting, with no signs of declining.

My thoughts exactly. Trade Peavy for whatever you can get.

I'd also trade Miller and Doubront if somebody makes an offer you can't refuse, regardless of how the team does. I'd lump Gomes into that category as well but if the teams does better than .500 then I don't see Ben messing with the chemistry that he brings.

bankshot1 · Jul 21, 2014

Lose Remerswaal said:
Correct. I expected him to at least get a mop up inning yesterday

Its a testament to pitching depth and the organization's ability to develop pitching internally, that the possible trade of Peavy and/or Doubront is generally seen as a positive move by creating space for RDLR and Workman, and adding pieces (value unknown), and not primarily a trading deadline salary dump (Peavy).

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Jul 21, 2014

I'm starting to sour on the idea of even trading Peavy. Starting pitching depth can turn into dearth in a hurry as the kids start reaching beyond the innings they've pitched in prior years. I have high hopes for Rubby, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo and hell Wright for that matter but these guys are all going to get tired. If you get decent value for Peavy then by all means send him out but I wouldn't trade him just to make room.

Hank Scorpio · Jul 21, 2014

I've been on the "trade Peavy" bandwagon for a while now, but I'm starting to wonder if maybe he can perform well enough down the stretch to warrant a QO, and if he can perform well enough to reject that QO. A sandwich pick is likely better than anything we could get for Peavy in a trade (unless the Allen Craig rumor was, and still is, a thing).

The question is, is the chance at a sandwich pick worth giving up on whatever Peavy could bring back in a trade?

As for the next 10 games, I don't think there needs to be a hard line at 5, 6, or 7 wins. If the team comes a part, looks horrible or loses significant ground, then fine. Sell. If they go 6-4 or 5-5, or even 4-6, but seem to be playing well overall, and are still sticking around 5-8 games out or so, I'd hang on to key parts.

And I'd still keep Lester, Koji and Miller no matter what. Same for any key veteran under contract next season.

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon · Jul 21, 2014

You don't think Peavy would accept the QO? Why not? He's been a bit better, but the Sox have still lost the last 8 games he's started.

Do you think another team is going to offer him something more than than $14m?

I think he's more likely to retire...

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 21, 2014

Hank Scorpio said:
I've been on the "trade Peavy" bandwagon for a while now, but I'm starting to wonder if maybe he can perform well enough down the stretch to warrant a QO, and if he can perform well enough to reject that QO. A sandwich pick is likely better than anything we could get for Peavy in a trade (unless the Allen Craig rumor was, and still is, a thing).

Peavy would be foolish to reject a QO, and therefore we'd be foolish to offer him one.

jscola85 · Jul 21, 2014

Peavy loves it in Boston. If the team gave him the QO he would accept it within minutes.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Jul 21, 2014

I would trade Peavy and Crap now while you can still have some sort of decent bargaining position (not seen as 100% seller) and then wait until the 30th or 31st for the rest if you fall out of it. Carp is surplus and Peavy is not bad but not worth keeping for age and salary reasons and we have enough depth in the position for our record. (if we're sitting where Orioles are, different story)

mattymatty · Jul 21, 2014

I believe the qualifying offer will be higher next season. I've heard around $16 million. I'm not sure that impacts whether they'd offer it to Peavy or not (I wouldn't either way). I expect they'll deal him regardless.

HriniakPosterChild · Jul 21, 2014

Lose Remerswaal said:
Correct. I expected him to at least get a mop up inning yesterday

I thought a mop up inning is when you're losing by 6 in the 9th...

benhogan · Jul 21, 2014

The next 10 games shouldn't dictate what we do with Peavy. Realistically we have till Aug 31st to deal Jake, he'll easily pass through waivers, so if we want more time its there. I'd just rather see Workman go for us sooner, since this is valuable development time without a major downgrade.

I can't envision the Sox offering Peavy a QO, we have an abundance of 'high-floor' pitchers at AAA that could fill his role at ML minimum. I'd much rather use money towards re-signing Lester, Miller and Koji or re-negotiating an extension with Lackey.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Jul 21, 2014

benhogan said:
The next 10 games shouldn't dictate what we do with Peavy. Realistically we have till Aug 31st to deal Jake, he'll easily pass through waivers, so if we want more time its there. I'd just rather see Workman go for us sooner, since this is valuable development time without a major downgrade.

I can't envision the Sox offering Peavy a QO, we have an abundance of 'high-floor' pitchers at AAA that could fill his role at ML minimum. I'd much rather use money towards re-signing Lester, Miller and Koji or re-negotiating an extension with Lackey.

Sure, but the receiving team is likely to give more for 7 more starts out of Jake if we deal him now rather than August 31st.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Jul 21, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
Debatable whether that's a good thing for the receiving team, though. Peavy has been pretty lousy.

I'd expect him to be traded, but on July 21st- the only way a team trades for him is if the Sox are basically giving him away. Wouldn't one expect that most legit contenders looking for pitching think they can do better than a guy whose ERA is currently +13% higher than the AL starter average?

I anticipate he's going to go the NL which in 2014 is the definition of parity and has weaker lineups and where he has been comfortable and successful. He should be an improvement for a handful of teams there.

Rasputin · Jul 21, 2014

As others have said, over the next ten games you have to work both sides of the street and you need to already have developed the criteria on which you're going to make the sell/standpat/buy decision.

I think we are aided by the fact that getting back into it is going to require that people perform. Which is to say, we could get back in it without Drew and Bogaerts coming around, but I tend to doubt it. And if we do, we already have one backup piece who can rectify that situation. He hasn't shown any inclination to do so, but it's at least a possibility.

I'd like to win eight of these games or more. That would put us at .500 or better and most likely vault us ahead of Tampa and Toronto. The Yanks have it relatively easy over this period and the Orioles have it pretty tough.

You know what the dream scenario is? We win most of these ten games, the Orioles struggle, we hit the deadline more or less tied with Baltimore with the Yankees a game or so ahead. We trade Peavy and bring in a relatively minor addition to the big club while management makes it clear we're trying to win this year.

And immediately after the deadline, we play the Yankees. We sweep them, take over first, and we don't look back.

pokey_reese · Jul 21, 2014

Cold water from Fangraphs:

Dan Szymborski: The season’s over. The Red Sox just aren’t that good. 7.5 doesn’t sound like a big deal, but essentially, on an annualized basis, the Sox need to be 20 games better/162 than the O’s *and* 8 games better/162 than the Blue Jays *and* Yankees.

jscola85 · Jul 21, 2014

Fangraphs' own Playoff Odds give the Sox a 10% chance of making the playoffs (7.3% through winning the division and 2.9% through winning a WC slot). That's long odds but certainly not dead in the water. The interesting thing is it looks like there should at least be a solid number of sellers at this point; after the Rays at 9%, there are 11 teams with less than a 1% chance at a wild card:

Mets
White Sox
Marlins
Twins
Padres
D-Backs
Phillies
Rockies,
Astros
Cubs
Rangers

Given there are 10 playoff spots now, having more than 1/3 of the league completely out of contention means there should be a fair amount of teams willing to deal veterans for future assets at the deadline, even excluding the Rays and Sox.

dcmissle · Jul 21, 2014

10% is about double what I had seen a week ago, though that might have been from another source. You get to 15%, there is almost no way I deal anybody critical to the Club this year. My quite arbitrary line is that you can't fold when your chances are almost1 in 6.

My only amendment to Ras' dream is that the Lester extension is announced on eve of deadline.

In any case. The Pecota gods owe us one after 2011.

Harry Hooper · Jul 21, 2014

I believe Pedroia's deal was announced on July 24th, albeit in the season prior to the last year of his previous contract.

Rasputin · Jul 21, 2014

dcmissle said:
My only amendment to Ras' dream is that the Lester extension is announced on eve of deadline.

The day before Game 5 of the Division Series against the Athletics. He signs. He shuts them down for seven. We win the series.

Bone Chips · Jul 21, 2014

dcmissle said:
10% is about double what I had seen a week ago, though that might have been from another source.

BP's Playoff Odds has them at 4.7%. I think the difference between the two is that FanGraphs is based on their projections going forward.

Whether it's 10-1 or 20-1, it's a real longshot. And that's just to make the playoffs. Their odds of winning the World Series are off the charts - 0.3% (BP) and 0.9% (FG). Personally I think those odds are bs given the Red Sox's dominance in the WS the last 10 years. I still can't believe I can say those words.

Plympton91 · Jul 21, 2014

Basically if you win the Division you've got a 12.5 percent chance give or take a percentage point or three of winning the Championship of the post season tournament. Let's call it 10 percent. So, if the odds of winning the Division are 10 percent then if you consider making the playoffs and winning the title to be uncorrelated the odds of winning the World Series are 1 percent.

That's really all they're doing.

bradmahn · Jul 22, 2014

So, they've won 8 of 9 at this point and have solidified the major league team with the return of Victorino and the call up of Vasquez. They've been pitching as well as they have all season (damn well, that is) and are as good as anyone else in the division in that regard, with lights out top of the rotation starters, set up men, and Koji. In this stretch of games we've seen life out of Xander, Bradley, Nava, Papi, and Napoli, all of which can be seen as the natural progression of the inevitable. They are such a significantly different (read: better) team without AJP and with a healthy Victorino and the return of the Nava/Gomes platoon's production that I just don't see any sense in blowing it up and packing it in against the field that is the AL East, especially when the trades that will net anything worthwhile (a B+/A- prospect) will also result in significantly lower chances of keeping assets that could help the 2015 iteration of the Red Sox (I'm looking at you, Lester, Uehara, and Miller).

I think 5 more wins sets them up well for a dogfight to win the division, which it will be for the eventual victor regardless of whether or not it's the Red Sox. As such, I'd be willing to toss off cursory players like Peavy, Breslow, Carp, or the like, to make room for the youth brigade, but Doubront is at his nadir and is a strong bullpen piece if not an average starter and the aforementioned FA triumvirate are more re-sign-worthy than trade-worthy, in my opinion.

Edited to add: even if pulling off the divisional comeback is a long shot with Lester, that plus the value of the sandwich pick and the ability to continue extension talks 'til the beginning of FA mean I'm having a hard time seeing how the Sox come far enough ahead in a deadline trade of Lester to make it happen.

Tyrone Biggums · Jul 22, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
If I were Ben, I wouldn't even look at the wild card. I'd only be focusing on the division. If the Sox are 6 games or less back in the division by the end of this stretch, I'd stand pat and go for it. Given that the deficit now is 7.5, that's not a far fetched scenario. 6 games in 2 months isn't that hard to make up.

I think you almost have to look at both. The Sox aren't out of either by any means especially since you're looking at a scenario where Anaheim and Seattle will be cannibalizing each other for the Wild Card spots allowing other teams to stay in the running.

Baltimore seems like a team that at some point will come back to earth. Toronto doesn't have the arms to compete and neither does the Yankees without Tanaka and CC. The deadline will tell a lot but I honestly expect Boston to finish the next 10 games 8-2. They seem to have that mentality back from last season. I love what Vazquez brings to the game and look forward to a future tandem of him and Swihart.

I also put $50 down on them to win the division on July 1st. I would love to collect!

bankshot1 · Jul 22, 2014

bankshot1 said:
The "forgotten man" on the Sox is Felix Doubront. It seems he has been pushed down on the depth chart, I wonder if his future changes over the next 10 days.

Speak of the devil,

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/07/21/felix-doubront-wants-pitch-here-elsewhere/SDTPOPE9vHI657sLUBamjJ/story.html

TORONTO — Felix Doubront, the No. 3 starter to start the season, has become the forgotten man of the Red Sox bullpen, sentenced to the amorphous role of long reliever.
The 26-year-old lefthander is starting to wonder if he might be better off with another team.
“I’m doing my work and trying to stay sharp. My mind is positive but this sucks,” Doubront said Monday before the Red Sox beat the Blue Jays, 14-1.
“I just want to pitch. If it’s here or somewhere else, I just want to pitch. I need an opportunity if it’s another team or this team.”

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jul 22, 2014

Felix was handed a great opportunity in Spring Training and he let it slip through his hands by not staying sharp. He's in the best place right now. I see them dealing Peavy and even if Workman takes his full time spot, I definitely see Doubront getting plenty of starts to give RDLR some rest.
His trade value is super low but his ceiling is still pretty high (no. 3 on an AL team... no.2 on a NL team?) if he can "stay sharp". Problem is that it seems he can't. When that kid is on, he's great... when he's not, he's not a competent starter. Inconsistency... or "staying sharp".

Stan Papi Was Framed · Jul 22, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
Felix needs to be quiet. He had his opportunity, and shit the bed. The team gave him 10 starts, and he averaged barely 5 innings a start, with 1.4 HR / 9, 4.1 BB / 9, and 6.3 K / 9. That's terrible.

Pitching in three games in a month is tough, but he's low man on the totem pole and is going to have to earn Farrell's trust. I suspect he'll get another shot (via a trade of Peavy or Breslow, perhaps), but it seems quite likely that he's not here next year.

yes. The team is finally showing signs of life and he's telling reporters that it sucks for him to be at the end of the bullpen. Deal him if at all possible.

sorry, emotional reaction. Obviously his trade value is low to non-existent right now. He really needs to be quiet though.

Rovin Romine · Jul 22, 2014

I suspect we hold everyone for depth, just in case the Very Improbable Run continues. If we're neck and neck with Baltimore three weeks from now, we'll need a surplus of players to trade if we have to plug an injury-related hole. Or we'll just start using those depth players more.

If/when the VIR ends, there are a number of what look like extra parts. Some have no future with the Sox: Peavy, Drew. Others might, but we might also be selling low on them: Doubront, Carp(?), Lavarnway(?).

mfried · Jul 22, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
Felix needs to be quiet. He had his opportunity, and shit the bed. The team gave him 10 starts, and he averaged barely 5 innings a start, with 1.4 HR / 9, 4.1 BB / 9, and 6.3 K / 9. That's terrible.

Pitching in three games in a month is tough, but he's low man on the totem pole and is going to have to earn Farrell's trust. I suspect he'll get another shot (via a trade of Peavy or Breslow, perhaps), but it seems quite likely that he's not here next year.

In all fairness, Doubront looked very sharp in yesterday's mop-up 8th inning. The guy clearly has more talent than smarts. I would reluctantly (and temporarily) rank him over Workman if Peavy is traded. And yes, he should pitch well and keep his mouth shut.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 22, 2014

Stan Papi Was Framed said:
yes. The team is finally showing signs of life and he's telling reporters that it sucks for him to be at the end of the bullpen. Deal him if at all possible.

sorry, emotional reaction. Obviously his trade value is low to non-existent right now. He really needs to be quiet though.

I suspect that it's a pretty universal emotional reaction. His feelings are totally understandable, but expressing them to a reporter right now, when the team is on a roll, makes him look dumb as a rock.

It's interesting to compare Doubront to his #1 BBref comp, Bob Ojeda. They've had similar careers so far, and I suspect their fates will also be similar...i.e., at some point fairly soon, we'll deal Doubront to an NL team and he'll have a few years as a pretty solid mid-rotation starter before declining. Hopefully whoever we get for him will have a happier place in Sox lore than Calvin Schiraldi.

The next ten games

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