I agree 100%, other than Raheem Mostert is a stud. I posted in the game thread, but hes 7 carries away from being the all time leader in yards per carry with at least 500 rushes. He just can’t stay healthy
The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
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Does anyone actually track QB velocity? Obviously, as with pitchers, not the be-all and end-all, as off-speed/touch throws are a staple of the position. But also as with the pitcher that throws 101, it's nice to have.
To define the problem though how many of those guys are there? Five? So what's the realistic plan if you don't get one--we like to discuss essentially losing a ton of games until you get Caleb Williams but that doesn't sell a lot of tickets, satisfy fans, or help GMs and coaches keep their jobs. (Speaking personally as a fan I want at least a decent team to root for every year, even if they never have the QB that can make them a perennial super bowl contender.)
I think there are a little more. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Lawrence, Hurts, Herbert... I'd even throw Dak in there, but I'm higher on him than most. Of course you can debate some of these players, but I think none of their teams are looking for a quarterback or thinking about moving on at the end of their current deals.
Therein lies the problem - to get a franchise QB you typically have to draft them. Are people ok with a two or three win season if it gets them a shot a player like Williams or Penix Jr? Based on my time around this forum I would argue no.
More to the point, its taken as a given that BB won't ever tank a season. Assuming that's true, the path to contention is by building around a non-franchise QB or what we have now. We are living the plan in real time. Its not super encouraging.
The alternative is being godawful in the HOPE that your high draft pick QB turns out to be great and not Trey Lance or Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf. And sadly there’s tons of those guys out there.
There is still a path being a decent-or-better team to getting an elite QB: you can trade for the draft pick to get them. Trey Lance comes to mind (okay, bad example)... but the Mannings and John Elway would also qualify.
The Pats could put together a package of 2-3 first rounders and Keion White and get pretty high in R1.
EDIT: Add Mahomes to the Manning/Elway list
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I mean, the Bills were a playoff team and traded up for Allen, same with the Chiefs and Mahomes. Lamar was picked at the end of the first round. It's not like Burrow and Lawrence at number 1 overall are the only way to get that guy. Herbert went 6th overall, you can trade from, say, 14th to 6th. But yeah, that requires identifying a player and getting him, not waiting for one to fall in their lap.
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Yeah, just look at the most recent Super Bowl champions. If you take the Patriots out of the mix, you have Manning (as a Bronco), Foles, Brady (as a Buc), Stafford. Only Mahomes was drafted by his club. (Well, Foles was too, but he came back as a FA.)
Entirely true. And there are plenty of other high picks who have had respectable NFL careers but aren't going to win games on their own.
In short, if we are going to see the Pats in the Superbowl anytime soon, its likely because they did so without an elite QB. Maybe something changes with BB or someone unexpectedly becomes available or Mac levels up further. But absent those developments, this team's shot seems to be building around the position rather than starting from it.
And then hope they don't draft the next Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Kyler Murray, Haskins, Mayfield, Darnold, Josh Rosen, Trubisky, Mariota, Winston, etc.
For every draft that looks like the 2020 QB Class, there's a lot more that look like 2021.
And KC traded up from 29 for Mahomes at 10. No two or three win season for them.
Bills traded up a few spots for Allen as well. They were mediocre for a few years but never really bottomed out.
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I"m all for it, I think that probably is the right way to handle it but you might be fucked for a couple years if you are a pretty decent team and you do what, for example, Buffalo did (trading in essence Watkins, Glenn and a first--so a good tackle and a solid young receiver) and you get a Trey Lance of Zach Wilson.
Sure, but you could also get a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson in the second round, or at 19, and history tells us there's a correlation between draft spot and performance for quarterbacks. If you don't want to suck so you take your pick, you'll have to go grab one. All that matters is that you hit on the guy, if you do no one cares what you gave up. I wouldn't be deathly afraid of missing on the pick. It's the only way out of purgatory unless you build the 49ers roster, and I'd argue that's not any easier than finding a QB.
I agree-I think basically the smartest play is to be in purgatory and in those years when you do see a guy who you love, go up and get them. Like keep Mac on the team with a series of shoter term contracts and hope that you're right on your assessment of the next mahomes/allen who slides from the top five and go crazy to get that guy even if you have Mac on the team with a real contract.
I have a buddy who is adamant that NFL teams without star QBs should be drafting a QB every single year. His contention is that if I ts truly the most important position in the game, then you should take as many shots as possible at finding a viable starter.
That may be extreme, and perhaps a bit unsustainable, but I get his point. Especially when we consider that there are a lot of undrafted RBs, WRs, OLmen, etc. kicking around the league at any given time.
As for Mac, I think we’ll know what his future with the Pats looks like by the end of this season. At this very moment I see a guy who *could* be someone who can get you to the playoffs with the right pieces around him. I’m not sure Bill’s the guy to get those pieces, but that’s another issue. I suspect 15 games from now we’ll know if we should get those pieces, or move on from Mac.
That may be extreme, and perhaps a bit unsustainable, but I get his point. Especially when we consider that there are a lot of undrafted RBs, WRs, OLmen, etc. kicking around the league at any given time.
As for Mac, I think we’ll know what his future with the Pats looks like by the end of this season. At this very moment I see a guy who *could* be someone who can get you to the playoffs with the right pieces around him. I’m not sure Bill’s the guy to get those pieces, but that’s another issue. I suspect 15 games from now we’ll know if we should get those pieces, or move on from Mac.
I assume he means it in the sense of... Can consistently take you to the playoffs under less than ideal circumstances. Just about every QB can occasionally makes the playoffs
I'm not sure this year clarifies things unless he starts playing much better or much worse. If he plays the next 15 games like he did the last two and has, what does it work out to, 34 to 17 td to picks, 4500 yards, on this board we'll still be basically split were we are now. Like, I'd give the guy who played the last two games the fifth year option but I'm sure otherws would not.
Your buddy's point is insane. You can't even tell after a year whether the guy you drafted is a star (should the Jaguars have drafted Kenny Pickett after lawrence's bad first year) but by definition there are going to be 27 teams without top 5 quarterbacks--should they just give up, be bad, and not sell a lot of tickets?
To me the question is "can Mac lead a BB coached team deep into the playoffs and make the correct plays with the game on the line" - not "can Mac single handedly take the patriots to the playoffs" like Mahomes or Allen.
Yeah I think it's something inbetween... I didn't mean drag you to the playoffs even with terrible teams every year, but has to add some value. ie, if you have a mediocre team can he still make enough positive plays to make the playoffs... if you have a pretty good team can he take you deep.
I don't need Mahomes to invest in you, but I do need you to break the Dalton line.
I don't know that this is fair. I don't see anyone other than a top 3-5 qb dragging a mediocre team to the playoffs in this currently constituted AFC East. 3-4 years ago, maybe.
If Mac Jones had prime AJ Green to throw the ball to now, and we were having the same results, I'd toss him right under the bus.
Which is the most aggravating part of this situation. The Pats have a good enough defense to do some real damage if they could get into the playoffs, and of course, they have BB. The problem is they have completely ignored/whiffed on the other side of the ball.
We all think pretty highly of Justin Herbert. Big arm, seems like he has all the tools.
First three seasons: 66.9%, 14,089 yds, 7.2 y/a, 94 td, 38 int, 96.2 rating, 109, 108, 105 rate + those three seasons.
Has had really good receivers (both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are very good) and an elite RB in Ekeler.
However...
Career record of 25-26.
Made the playoffs one time in his career, and lost that game.
There are reasons why Herbert has had such limited success in the NFL. He's had very meh teams around him. He hasn't been able to elevate mediocre coaching and mediocre play from other aspects of the team to see playoff success.
First three seasons: 66.9%, 14,089 yds, 7.2 y/a, 94 td, 38 int, 96.2 rating, 109, 108, 105 rate + those three seasons.
Has had really good receivers (both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are very good) and an elite RB in Ekeler.
However...
Career record of 25-26.
Made the playoffs one time in his career, and lost that game.
There are reasons why Herbert has had such limited success in the NFL. He's had very meh teams around him. He hasn't been able to elevate mediocre coaching and mediocre play from other aspects of the team to see playoff success.
I always found it interesting that Baltimore said, we're not going to try to win the QB lottery, we're going to design an offense around a Lamar Jackson-specific skill set. How about something like that with Malik?
Also, keep in mind that Baltimore hasn't really won anything with Lamar Jackson either.
He's got a very good record (47-16, .746), but he's 1-3 in the playoffs and his numbers in the playoffs aren't good at all.
L, 23-17 - 14-29 (48.3%), 194 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 78.8 rating, 54 rush yds
L, 28-12 - 31-59 (52.5%), 365 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 63.2 rating, 143 rush yds
W, 20-13 - 17-24 (70.8%), 179 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 74.8 rating, 136 rush yds
L, 17-3 - 14-24 (58.8%), 162 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 61.5 rating, 34 rush yds
So they've averaged 13.0 points a game in his four playoff games, and the team is 1-3 in those games. It's not like their D has been totally lit up either, allowing an average of just 20.3 points a game. For whatever reason, he hasn't been able to get it done, and this guy is a former MVP.
I'm not sure if this says more what I think of Tua or Mac, but watching Sundays game and watching the two QBs playing generally, I would not at all be surprised if the Dolphins and Patriots looked largely the same if you just swapped them out. It's so hard to evaluate either for because of the talent around them, it's just they are on opposite spectrums when you factor in their OLs. Personally, I have been mostly impressed with Mac this year. Yeah, he's missed some throws and made a few young QB decisions, but given what he's had, I think he's done some things, including extending plays to the extent I did not think he was capable. I still don't love those designed rollouts, though...
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As down as many of us are on Bill the GM, Bill the HC is still able to make a difference. It’s part of what’s so frustrating about this team post-Brady.
Yeah I think the OL has been a painfully slow-moving train wreck that we could see developing in preseason. Even if we have all top guys healthy, it still takes time to gel. It's tough to evaluate a QB under these conditions. Rookie mistakes have factored in too (Boutte, Douglas) Mac has done well, and they aren't getting blown out against good teams. I think we could see some impressive wins in a few weeks if/when these factors improve. It's probasbly too late at that point to save the season from 9-8 doldrums, but can give us answers on the future of Mac.
I get the general point, that few young QBs can overcome bad teams.... but also, if Herbert had been on the Patriots the last 3 years I think we win more games. He had a top 5 offense when his weapons were healthy, and the year his guys were hurt a bunch and he was behind a terrible line and played most of the season with broken ribs... still 12th best offense. The problem is he's played opposite some horrendous defenses. Now not saying he'd fix all the problems here, he wouldn't. The line is still bad, the WRs need to be better.... but I have no doubt the offense would be better with Herbert.
There maybe 3 or 4 QBs in the league that can make plays and throws like Caleb Williams. Only health could stop him from being a top 5 QB.
View: https://twitter.com/Jordan_Reid/status/1701947618803249550
Drake Maye is a more of an unknown.
I wonder how often John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan think, if only we had picked Mac no one would be questioning our decision to move up. Mac could absolutely do what Purdy has done in SF. Mac could prob win a SB in SF the way that team is built.
I'm already on record as saying I wanted two things out of this season. A competitive team with improvement from Mac, or 0-17 and Caleb Williams.
I love him, think he might be a unicorn, but getting him is going to be damn near impossible. There is still hope though. The way our offensive line is playing, Mac could get lit up at any moment and be done for the year, and 0-17 will be legitimately in play if that happens.
One concern I see with Williams... he never sets his feet, he's always nervous, like Russel Wilson on meth. Gonna walk into a ton of sacks in the league if he doesn't fix it. (the first play is never, ever happening in the NFL, defenders are way better and faster than that.
He looks so much like Mahomes to me, but you’re definitely betting on him making a similarly big leap as a pocket passer playing within structure/on time.
And if he's drafted by the Pats, chances are he may have a downgrade at receiver than what he has this year at USC.
That long touchdown was caught by none other than Jerry Rice's son, Brenden. The other went to Dorian Singer, who made AP All Pac-12 as a sophomore last year with Arizona.
The point I was trying to make wasn’t that he isn’t a good QB - he is. He’s better than Mac. It’s that even Justin Herbert hasn’t been able to overcome the deficiencies in his team to produce a real winner. LA’s deficiencies are different than NE’s, but regardless, Herbert hasn’t been able to overcome them.
Mahomes and Allen can pull off that first play in the NFL.
I've watched most of his snaps and he does set his feet on most of his throws, but the thing that makes him special is he's wildly accurate, with velocity,when he does throw off his back foot or on the run. Unfortunately for him, he won't be getting Andy Reid as his coach.
View: https://twitter.com/FF_Hulsey/status/1594322011718709248
I'm a stanford football fan--go ACC baby--and while Williams obviously obliterated our guys there were a lot of times when he was running around and our 5.4 40 yard dash defensive line guys _almost_ got him. that's not going to work against the jets defensive line.
Watching modern (successful) NFL offenses operate makes me think the way to design an offense in 2023 is to have a quarterback with an arm and mobility like (or better than) prime Brett Favre and focus heavily on scheming elite-speed and elite-shiftiness receivers open (like we see with the Dolphins and Hill).
So, less focus on drafting a guy that’s an assassin pre-snap (because they’re insanely rare and hard to find) but instead one that can extend plays and toss darts to 4.3 receivers that’ve been picked or motioned (pre-snap) “open” down field. Draft peak athleticism and have the coaching staff do all the thinking.
It’s so wild to see how this game changes decade to decade.
So, less focus on drafting a guy that’s an assassin pre-snap (because they’re insanely rare and hard to find) but instead one that can extend plays and toss darts to 4.3 receivers that’ve been picked or motioned (pre-snap) “open” down field. Draft peak athleticism and have the coaching staff do all the thinking.
It’s so wild to see how this game changes decade to decade.
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I am absolutely OK with this and I wish they would have tanked in the Cam Newton year (I know, that class wasn't all that great unless they could get Lawrence, but they didn't know that at the time). But the problem is that Bill isn't OK with this.
Edit: I would also Add that Bill has done a pretty decent job in identifying QB talent, obviously the GOAT but also Garoppolo and Mac were some of the better players in their classes, and Brissett was serviceable for a late pick. The problem is that none were elite, but I think if Bill were willing to trade up and take a shot at someone I'd be comfortable with him making that call. He just has never done that for whatever reason. Does he think it's not worth the draft capital? Would be an interesting question to hear him discuss
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I am not sure that BB is wrong. As others have noted, you can go through a tank but imo those are painful and risky for a variety of reasons - your pick could easily wind up a bust.
Also, I wonder if organizations who deliberately lose/tank are selling short the deleterious effects of losses as an objective. Obviously if you upgrade in terms of skill its going to help your potential results and we have seen teams come back from losing seasons pretty quickly. I just wonder about the team culture impacts to accepting losses for any reason.
I think team culture is a major part of it. And that players are literally putting their lives and health on the line, and it's borderline unethical to ask them to lose or try to lose games while they are out there.
Belichick is a player's coach, despite the gruff demeanor. I do not think he would ever be comfortable not trying to win games because it's disrespectful to the players on the team.
Yeah but almost no one from 2020 is on the team still. I really question what they learned by changing their offense and being just mediocre vs flat out sucking (Keep in mind they were fairly lucky that Mac even fell that far).
Also you don't literally ask players to lose. You give young guys a chance and trade off some veterans and everyone still plays hard.