He had a lot to say.Sure sounds like a tool.
He had a lot of nothing to say.
He had a lot to say.Sure sounds like a tool.
I assume BB wasn't considering Lombardi for the Pats OC job. As noted, he did not have to call plays for Las Vegas last season.I get letting your coaches leave for promotions but wouldn’t they all have received promotions in New England due to McDaniels’ departure? I mean, even OC in NE is probably a bigger promotion than OC in Vegas because McDaniels would still be the play caller.
They may also just like working with Josh. He’s probably been their direct mentor most of the time.I assume BB wasn't considering Lombardi for the Pats OC job. As noted, he did not have to call plays for Las Vegas last season.
Bricillo is an interesting one, as he essentially took the same role (OL coach) with the Raiders. Bo Hardegree also took what appears to be a lateral move, but my guess is that he was given greater responsibilities as the Raiders QB coach.
This is because coaches and GMs are usually trying to avoid getting fired. If you have a Cousins on a big long contract you will probably be saved from a <6 win season that would get you canned and occasionally you can put enough around him to make a playoff run. Fans will always have some interest because you have a shot and because of that the owner will be happy. But that's what we call QB purgatory because you're going to need everything to go perfect (more than usual) to win the big one.It's a pretty common refrain on this board that they should move on from Jones is he's not a top 5-10 QB any maybe the Pats are the outlier on this but I've got to say teams that have a steady starter in that 10-20 range--your Cousins, your fitzpatricks, your Daltons and Flaccos, Alex Smiths and Matt Cassells-tend to hold onto those players. Yeah Mahomes makes it a lot easier to be a consistent winning team, but there's not surer way to lose than to play a a Jacoby Brissett or Zach Wilson.
Very thoughtful answer, though, considering that it looks like he was ambushed (I dont mean that pejoratively here) while waiting at an airport.The look on Brown's face when being asked the questions about Mac is priceless. And, man, he's a big dude.
Best shape of his life!!There was a Mac Jones workout video posted yesterday!! He's ready!!
Does the QB market almost make it more of an easy decision to just pull the trigger on the 5th year salary? What would that be, low-mid 20s?So it isn't official yet, but good sources saying Daniel Jones is closing in on a deal with NYG that will pay him $40M+ in AAV.
Really puts a point on why this is such a make or break year for Mac. This is the last year before the 5th year option has to be decided on, and it's the year you're really deciding... "do I see myself giving this guy a minimum of $40M a year (likely more) to be my starting QB." If the answer is no you're looking for that guy.
Maybe? If you don't think he's your guy, your decision on exercising might be more about what it does for trade value, and where you DO think you're going to find your next QB.Does the QB market almost make it more of an easy decision to just pull the trigger on the 5th year salary? What would that be, low-mid 20s?
It'd be over 30 million considering he's made a Pro Bowl. That tier of 5th year option for QBs this season amounts to a 29.5 million number.Does the QB market almost make it more of an easy decision to just pull the trigger on the 5th year salary? What would that be, low-mid 20s?
Nah, it's only people who get in on the original ballot. The fake, 15th alternate pro-bowlers don't count.It'd be over 30 million considering he's made a Pro Bowl. That tier of 5th year option for QBs this season amounts to a 29.5 million number.
Oh, cool. Makes it more palatable.Nah, it's only people who get in on the original ballot. The fake, 15th alternate pro-bowlers don't count.
Depends how he gets to those numbers... if he does it with a 4.86 ANY/A on 820 pass attempts then... no.Mac is on pace for 68% completions, more than 4,300 yards, and 34 passing TDs. Obviously enormously small sample size, but let's say he finishes with those numbers, but the team only wins 5 games.
That would be an ENORMOUS statistical improvement for Mac over 2022, and even over 2021. So if he does that, is he worth the fifth year option, or even an extension?
And guys like Jefferson and Tyreek Hill make the other receivers around them better, because defenses have to do so much to focus on stopping them. When you put a guy like Stefon Diggs or Justin Jefferson on the other side, a guy like Adam Theilen is running free. It opens up the tight ends, it opens up the running game.Watching the pats has gotten me thinking, when it comes to receivers you can’t piece together yards. Having one tyreek hill or Justin Jefferson is so much better than having three mid tier guys. Brady had moss, gronk, welker, Edelman. Mac hasn’t had a single person who’s that guy
Does he have the 850 attempts he's on pace for in that scenario? Because if so, those volume stats become far less impressive. Either way, unless he completely implodes he'll be worth the 23 million or so of the fifth year option, at worst he's a representative QB and that's a very reasonable price for one of those in this market. The extension stuff is super muddy. If this is the player he is, I'm letting him go after year 5 and starting over at the position, unless he takes a discount for some reason. I believe if he continues the trajectory of being between the 14th and 18th best QB in the league, he'll want about 42 million dollars a year in an extension. I don't think he'd be worth that. Now, if he improves I'd be willing to reconsider.Mac is on pace for 68% completions, more than 4,300 yards, and 34 passing TDs. Obviously enormously small sample size, but let's say he finishes with those numbers, but the team only wins 5 games.
That would be an ENORMOUS statistical improvement for Mac over 2022, and even over 2021. So if he does that, is he worth the fifth year option, or even an extension?
Yeah great question. He won't go the whole year at 5.5 yds/att, as they figure some things out. But he's MUCH better now than he was in 2022 or 2021. And I definitely (as of now) exercise the fifth year option, but hold off on an extension. And as of this moment, I am also drafting another QB, maybe in the first round if one of the good ones is still available when they draft. Maybe it ends up being an Alex Smith/Pat Mahomes situation. They liked Smith, who was a useful and pretty decent NFL QB for them, but they had a chance to get a star, and they took it. That's what I'd be thinking if I was NE.Does he have the 850 attempts he's on pace for in that scenario? Because if so, those volume stats become far less impressive. Either way, unless he completely implodes he'll be worth the 23 million or so of the fifth year option, at worst he's a representative QB and that's a very reasonable price for one of those in this market. The extension stuff is super muddy. If this is the player he is, I'm letting him go after year 5 and starting over at the position, unless he takes a discount for some reason. I believe if he continues the trajectory of being between the 14th and 18th best QB in the league, he'll want about 42 million dollars a year in an extension. I don't think he'd be worth that. Now, if he improves I'd be willing to reconsider.
Assuming Mac plays well, which is obviously a big if, it's really going to depend on the cap at that point. In 2025, the projected cap is around 282 million. If you pick up his option, and then extend him starting in 2026, when the cap is over 300mil, you're probably looking at a % of the cap at 40mil of 13%, but he won't be a 40mil cap hit in year one. Those numbers won't kick in until later when the cap goes up even further, which would actually put him in a spot that's probably below what most teams are dealing with.Does he have the 850 attempts he's on pace for in that scenario? Because if so, those volume stats become far less impressive. Either way, unless he completely implodes he'll be worth the 23 million or so of the fifth year option, at worst he's a representative QB and that's a very reasonable price for one of those in this market. The extension stuff is super muddy. If this is the player he is, I'm letting him go after year 5 and starting over at the position, unless he takes a discount for some reason. I believe if he continues the trajectory of being between the 14th and 18th best QB in the league, he'll want about 42 million dollars a year in an extension. I don't think he'd be worth that. Now, if he improves I'd be willing to reconsider.
QB | Team | Contract | % Of Team's Cap |
Deshaun Watson | Browns | $64.0M | 26.1% |
Dak Prescott | Cowboys | $59.5M | 23.3% |
Kyler Murray | Cardinals | $51.9M | 21.2% |
Mathew Stafford | Rams | $49.5M | 20.2% |
Josh Allen | Bills | $47.1M | 19.2% |
Great work. I just think if this is the player he is, I'd rather go with a veteran who's marginally worse but makes a lot less while drafting a rookie and allocating the savings in other areas of need. Now, if by Year 5 he's Joe Burrow, give him whatever he wants. I'm just not a fan of investing even moderate money into the QB position if the guy isn't a difference maker. And so far I don't think he is one, though I haven't closed the door on the possibility.Assuming Mac plays well, which is obviously a big if, it's really going to depend on the cap at that point. In 2025, the projected cap is around 282 million. If you pick up his option, and then extend him starting in 2026, when the cap is over 300mil, you're probably looking at a % of the cap at 40mil of 13%, but he won't be a 40mil cap hit in year one. Those numbers won't kick in until later when the cap goes up even further, which would actually put him in a spot that's probably below what most teams are dealing with.
Here's a pretty good article on cap hits by QB and team success.
https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/nfl-qb-contract-trends-what-is-the-optimal-cap-hit-to-win-a-super-bowl
In the 12 years since the no-cap season of 2010, just three Super Bowl winners were led by QBs still on their rookie contract: Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks in 2013, Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016 (with a caveat) and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019.
Wilson’s $681,000 made up less than one-half percent of Seattle’s cap space. Wentz didn’t play in the postseason due to injury (Nick Foles led the Eagles over the Patriots) but was the starting QB most of the regular season.
On the flip side, no QB with a cap percentage over 13.1% had ever won a Super Bowl – until this past season. Mahomes’ cap hit was a massive 17.16% of the team total, way more than the 13.1% of Steve Young in the very first year of the cap (under a contract that was signed before a cap existed).
Since the no-cap season, seven of the 12 winning QBs have ranged from 10.6%-12.3% of the team's cap -- in other words, moderately high-priced veteran types.
The only non-veteran, non-rookie-deal QBs to buck both trends were Joe Flacco, who commanded just 6.6% of the Ravens’ cap space in the 2012 season, and Tom Brady, who took a short-term pay cut in 2016 and accounted for 8.6% of the Patriots’ number.
The only one of the aforementioned seven that wasn’t No. 1 on their team docket was Matthew Stafford. His $20 million hit ranked No. 2 behind the $24 million of dead cap owed to Jared Goff – who was traded to the Detroit Lions in a package that brought Stafford, and ultimately a Super Bowl, to L.A.
Check out where these QB's are going to be as a percentage to cap next year:
Projected Top 5 QB Cap Hits For 2024
QB Team Contract % Of Team's Cap Deshaun Watson Browns $64.0M 26.1% Dak Prescott Cowboys $59.5M 23.3% Kyler Murray Cardinals $51.9M 21.2% Mathew Stafford Rams $49.5M 20.2% Josh Allen Bills $47.1M 19.2%
Seeing in real time why teams use top picks on raw athletic guys like Fields or Lance.At this point it feels like we are in this weird spot where drafting Mac has turned out to be a good outcome relative to where he was drafted and especially in comparison to his draft class, but a not-good outcome in terms of having an elite quarterback on which you can build a franchise.
One thing I'll say is that while I liked and not loved Fields, I wanted them to trade up for him so bad in that draft and have been proven completely wrong. I'm sure he'd be a better player and win more games in NE than in the mess he has around him in Chicago, but the kid can't process. I think we'd have an inkling if he could at this point. Much rather have Mac.Seeing in real time why teams use top picks on raw athletic guys like Fields or Lance.
Yes, I'm with this. If we finish with a pick that might net us JJ McCarthy (or whoever), then that has to be part of the calculus. Still, I'd also love to see Mac lead us on a few game winning drives. While I believe he can be an average NFL QB, I'm reluctant to make a long term commitment to average.Finishing with 5 wins last season got the 4th pick in the draft which turned into Anthony Richardson. If there is a QB like that available who has tremendous upside but raw then I would exercise the 5th year option for Mac. Let the rookie learn for year without pressure then make a decision for 2025.
If I'm Chicago, at this point I just turn him loose to run. What's to lose? He clearly can't win by being a straight passer. He can only be successful if he runs a lot. Yes he will probably get hit a ton. But they need him to be at his very best, and his very best requires the full use of his arsenal. The Pats found out how good he can be at this.One thing I'll say is that while I liked and not loved Fields, I wanted them to trade up for him so bad in that draft and have been proven completely wrong. I'm sure he'd be a better player and win more games in NE than in the mess he has around him in Chicago, but the kid can't process. I think we'd have an inkling if he could at this point. Much rather have Mac.
I agree with that. I don't think he's a difference maker either, but I do believe that he can be a winning quarterback in this league.Great work. I just think if this is the player he is, I'd rather go with a veteran who's marginally worse but makes a lot less while drafting a rookie and allocating the savings in other areas of need. Now, if by Year 5 he's Joe Burrow, give him whatever he wants. I'm just not a fan of investing even moderate money into the QB position if the guy isn't a difference maker. And so far I don't think he is one, though I haven't closed the door on the possibility.
I prefer to be more blunt in the assessment - at this point it looks like Mac's ceiling is game manager or something like Alex Smith.At this point it feels like we are in this weird spot where drafting Mac has turned out to be a good outcome relative to where he was drafted and especially in comparison to his draft class, but a not-good outcome in terms of having an elite quarterback on which you can build a franchise.
I have no idea what that coaching staff is doing. Last year they had some real success when they made him a runner, it not only was very effective offense, it also made passing easier for him.If I'm Chicago, at this point I just turn him loose to run. What's to lose? He clearly can't win by being a straight passer. He can only be successful if he runs a lot. Yes he will probably get hit a ton. But they need him to be at his very best, and his very best requires the full use of his arsenal. The Pats found out how good he can be at this.
I was the same, I badly wanted Fields and thought Mac was light-years behind him. Shows what I know.One thing I'll say is that while I liked and not loved Fields, I wanted them to trade up for him so bad in that draft and have been proven completely wrong. I'm sure he'd be a better player and win more games in NE than in the mess he has around him in Chicago, but the kid can't process. I think we'd have an inkling if he could at this point. Much rather have Mac.
It does feel like the defense is young enough to be good for a few years without going bonkers in spending. I'd definitely look to seriously upgrade the offense - first the OL, then a WR, if Mac shows me enough to keep him around.I agree with that. I don't think he's a difference maker either, but I do believe that he can be a winning quarterback in this league.
If they spend some of that 85 million they have sitting around next year, and draft some help, Mac with an offensive line that isn't a turnstile, at least one stud to throw the ball to, and another year with BoB, the Pats are in a sweet spot to make some noise with their roster in 2024 and 2025 and I think Mac can get them there. I mean, they aren't exactly getting blown out each week, it's a play here, a play there, and a revamped offensive line and playmakers might be the entire difference.
Of course, I've been saying this for 3 years now, and they haven't done it for him, so I'm not holding my breath. I'm just very, very concerned that if they don't give Mac help (meaning the next guy won't have any help either), we're just doing this dance again in 2025 and onward. There's no guarantees a #1 QB drafted will be good, never mind whichever QB they'll be able to draft, and some veteran off the street is a veteran off the street for a reason and they won't be a difference maker without difference makers either.
Yeah, this is all predicated on the savings they get from QB being used to help the QB, but then again that's what we were expecting with having a starter on a rookie deal, so it's probably stupid to make the same mistake in projection.I agree with that. I don't think he's a difference maker either, but I do believe that he can be a winning quarterback in this league.
If they spend some of that 85 million they have sitting around next year, and draft some help, Mac with an offensive line that isn't a turnstile, at least one stud to throw the ball to, and another year with BoB, the Pats are in a sweet spot to make some noise with their roster in 2024 and 2025 and I think Mac can get them there. I mean, they aren't exactly getting blown out each week, it's a play here, a play there, and a revamped offensive line and playmakers might be the entire difference.
Of course, I've been saying this for 3 years now, and they haven't done it for him, so I'm not holding my breath. I'm just very, very concerned that if they don't give Mac help (meaning the next guy won't have any help either), we're just doing this dance again in 2025 and onward. There's no guarantees a #1 QB drafted will be good, never mind whichever QB they'll be able to draft, and some veteran off the street is a veteran off the street for a reason and they won't be a difference maker without difference makers either.
Alex Smith was on the verge of busting out of the league until he got into the tender clutches of Andy Reid in KC. Mac may need a similar QB whisperer, because right now if he became Alex Smith at his best it would be both impressive and unexpected.I prefer to be more blunt in the assessment - at this point it looks like Mac's ceiling is game manager or something like Alex Smith.
That can change, of course, but as others have noted, this means they need to get the other pieces right around him if they want to compete. At this point its an open question whether this is going to work (in terms of winning) on this team, with this coaching staff. Mac isn't likely beating anyone on his own and the roster, at present, isn't good enough to offset his limitations.
This doesn't preclude the Patriots from winning with him but they will need a lot to go right to do so. It feels like teams tend to move on from those players rather than building around them but this is the BB led Pats so who knows.
FWIW, Alex Smith, from ages 27-33:I prefer to be more blunt in the assessment - at this point it looks like Mac's ceiling is game manager or something like Alex Smith.
That can change, of course, but as others have noted, this means they need to get the other pieces right around him if they want to compete. At this point its an open question whether this is going to work (in terms of winning) on this team, with this coaching staff. Mac isn't likely beating anyone on his own and the roster, at present, isn't good enough to offset his limitations.
This doesn't preclude the Patriots from winning with him but they will need a lot to go right to do so. It feels like teams tend to move on from those players rather than building around them but this is the BB led Pats so who knows.
They are trying to force him to play QB traditionally and he can't do it. I mean, the offense sucks, but when it works he can't do it. His biggest flaw in college was that he needed to see guys break open to throw the ball, lacked anticipation and vision and that's been magnified to the nth degree in the NFL. He can't process in terms of "NFL open", he's hesitant, he skips reads and won't pull the trigger on plays that happen as designed. Just recognize that and put the kid on the run, do creative stuff around his athletic ability, you're not going to punish him into becoming Peyton Manning. Just let it go.If I'm Chicago, at this point I just turn him loose to run. What's to lose? He clearly can't win by being a straight passer. He can only be successful if he runs a lot. Yes he will probably get hit a ton. But they need him to be at his very best, and his very best requires the full use of his arsenal. The Pats found out how good he can be at this.
You know about the same as me. I see guys "open enough" but not for long enough to account for the not-velocity on the ball. At the same time (because what do I know), it could be that Mac isn't releasing the ball early enough, or the receivers are making their cuts a yard or two too deep (or aren't coming back to the ball), but that extra beat seems consistent across all the receivers. And it seems to lead to a lot of DBs being able to recover in situations where it looks like the receiver made a good quick cut to get open.I just continually worry about his arm. Those throws outside the numbers don't seem to be quick enough to me. But what do I know.
I don't know why but I've been morbidly fascinated watching the latest QB school videos (1 hour and 1.5 hour) on Fields and Chicago...and while there are certainly scheme issues....Fields is just not good at basic QB reads. It needs to be drastically simplified to see if its salvageable.I have no idea what that coaching staff is doing. Last year they had some real success when they made him a runner, it not only was very effective offense, it also made passing easier for him.
This year.... they have gone from 5+ designed runs a game to basically none. That is just sabotage.
Let's not ignore the fact that he didn't just get Andy Reid. After his first season in KC, they got Travis Kelce (they had Jamaal Charles at his best in his first year) and Andy Reid went and got his boy Jeremy Maclin from Philly, who was coming off an 85 catch, 1,300 yard season in Philly.Alex Smith was on the verge of busting out of the league until he got into the tender clutches of Andy Reid in KC. Mac may need a similar QB whisperer, because right now if he became Alex Smith at his best it would be both impressive and unexpected.
I just continually worry about his arm. Those throws outside the numbers don't seem to be quick enough to me. But what do I know.
I'm trying REALLY hard not to mentally think of those Brady lasers to the outside, that's an impossible standard to match.You know about the same as me. I see guys "open enough" but not for long enough to account for the not-velocity on the ball. At the same time (because what do I know), it could be that Mac isn't releasing the ball early enough, or the receivers are making their cuts a yard or two too deep (or aren't coming back to the ball), but that extra beat seems consistent across all the receivers. And it seems to lead to a lot of DBs being able to recover in situations where it looks like the receiver made a good quick cut to get open.