Maybe it's interesting that BB cares what other people think?What is interesting about it? It's kind of an important decision, he's just getting final buy-in.
Maybe it's interesting that BB cares what other people think?What is interesting about it? It's kind of an important decision, he's just getting final buy-in.
I saw a bunch of highlights of Jones throwing frigging lasers to the middle-distances, some in the midst of heavy traffic. And he throws it 50+ yards with ease. So I dunno..this isn't my field of expertise. I just see a guy putting the ball where it needs to be, either on a rope or with touch, pass after pass after pass.That's a nice throw... it doesn't really show much as to what level of NFL arm strength he has though, that's a ball floated out there for Smith to run onto, if he couldn't throw the ball that far in the air he wouldn't get drafted at all. Real nice touch, which is 100% a thing that Jones has, one of his better qualities. He has good accuracy and pretty nice touch on the ball over the top. It's why even people down on him think he was at least a 2nd/3rd round grade, he has a lot of positives.
The throws people are more concerned about are the ones that need zip on them, whether that the 15 yard out, or the 35-40 yard ball down the field that needs to get in before the safety gets across, or the 25-30 yard ball high and outside on a flat tragectory that only the WR can get.
When analysts talk about him having a marginal arm, they mean by NFL QB standards, where it's not just "how far can you throw it" (which in the NFL... a bad arm can still throw it 45-50 yards and good ones throw it 70-80+), it's how fast can you get it there.
I think people are mistaking worries about how consistently he can throw NFL deep balls with physical incapability. I mean... I worry about Cam's ability to throw deep with his shoulder... he still showed last year that if a guy is open deep he can lay it out downfield for the guy to run onto, it's the zip (and control) he was missing.
Now maybe there are some people REALLY down on Jones, but I think I'm one of the less enthusiastic.. I still think his most likely outcome is marginal starter/good backup... it's just a question of whether he'll be able to make it to... "guy you want to give a 2nd contract at good money to be your starter" levels, which is what you're hoping for out of a 1st round pick if you want to be a consistent SB contender.
Who knows, even the people whose area of expertise is QBs get stuff wrong all the time. Generally I don't see his arm as that strong on tape, and his numbers on tight window throws aren't that great which seems to back up a marginal arm. I tend to defer to guys like SMU on here, and Klassen for experts, who see him as solid but marginal on arm talent.I saw a bunch of highlights of Jones throwing frigging lasers to the middle-distances, some in the midst of heavy traffic. And he throws it 50+ yards with ease. So I dunno..this isn't my field of expertise. I just see a guy putting the ball where it needs to be, either on a rope or with touch, pass after pass after pass.
Love that Kraft calls out his 4.0 gpa. Bob did his homework on this kid.
That this got into the final video is no accident. The local reporters have been hurling bombs at Bill for not listening to his scouts/personnel guys in recent years (see: NKeal Harry), and you can be sure Bill is aware of it. Remember that Kraft a few weeks alluded to some ‘changes’ they’ve made (not Kraft-directed though) in how they run the operation.Maybe it's interesting that BB cares what other people think?
From NFL Draft Kickoff: #Patriots coach Bill Belichick is said to be excited about grooming a young QB again, which means that he'll probably now coach forever.
Rookie QBs, particularly ones who can't run are usually very bad. I don't think Jones raises the floor for QB play this year, that floor is probably still the bad version of Cam. I do think he provides a lot more future certainty than Stidham though. I don't see a scenario where 2022 comes around and Jones isn't at least a guy you feel comfortable having back up.Last year's team, if Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB probably wins 10 games. We added a ton. Jones IMO provides a floor for QB play well above last year's play. He looks to me to be likely at minimum to be not incompetent on the field, which Hoyer was in his start, and Newton largely was the second half of the season.
If their desire was to find a QB to invest energy into for the future, I'm happier to have a guy who I think could step into a game this year and not be a negative. I think Lance will need a little time, and I'm just not sure how Fields will immediately develop, though I think with a little time will be outstanding and I'd have been thrilled to get. But I think Jones gives them a chance to win games should Newton not allow them to.
You may be right, but having a reasonable floor as "Bad Cam" is painful to think about.Rookie QBs, particularly ones who can't run are usually very bad. I don't think Jones raises the floor for QB play this year, that floor is probably still the bad version of Cam.
There are plenty of clips of him under throwing deep balls to Waddle and Smith where they’re slowing down to catch the ball and then accelerate to evade defenders after the catch.What evidence is there that Jones can't throw deep?
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kepnNobCOjI
Jones looks off a safety, hits his #3 receiver (so not Waddle or Smith) down the right sideline, a throw that travels 45 yards and hits him *perfectly* in stride right on the sideline (so no room for error due to the boundary).
I think it’s a legit question as to whether QBs train themselves to make less risky throws when a WR is wide open. You don’t wanna risk overthrowing a wide open WR if you can get it in the area and guarantee a catch. But you risk losing yards being safe, too. I dunno.There are plenty of clips of him under throwing deep balls to Waddle and Smith where they’re slowing down to catch the ball and then accelerate to evade defenders after the catch.
It goes down in the books as a deep completion, but only because the receivers made the play while the ball was in the air.
Mac has an ok arm, and for the Pats offense it’s probably perfectly fine. However the difference between his arm and someone like Fields is why he’s viewed more as a higher floor, lower ceiling guy.
People keep saying Pennington, and I see it, but the guy I see is Rivers. Minus the douche face. And 9 kids.Have people watched his tape? His arm is fine. It’s not a rocket but it’s plenty strong. Has tape making all the throws. The discussion around him not having a good arm is because it’s the worst arm of the top 5 guys, but that’s because the other 4 all have cannons. Special arm talent from the other 4, but Mac’s arm isn’t Chad Pennington. Plenty of tape of him ripping it.
I can't say anything about "elite" QB play, but at a high school level this is definitely true.I think it’s a legit question as to whether QBs train themselves to make less risky throws when a WR is wide open. You don’t wanna risk overthrowing a wide open WR if you can get it in the area and guarantee a catch. But you risk losing yards being safe, too. I dunno.
You can find clips of every even great NFL quarterback with any number of under throws. That’s not the issue to me. The issue is whether Jones has the arm to get it there when it needs to be there. And I have seen enough clips of him throwing absolute lasers into coverage and hitting deep balls in stride to tell me that he has the ability to get it there. I just don’t know that lack of arm strength is going to be an issue. Plus, of course, I believe his arm strength will improve.There are plenty of clips of him under throwing deep balls to Waddle and Smith where they’re slowing down to catch the ball and then accelerate to evade defenders after the catch.
It goes down in the books as a deep completion, but only because the receivers made the play while the ball was in the air.
You also saw it in his pro-day. He tried to showcase his arm a few different times and was inaccurate because he doesn’t have a natural, easy power arm. So when he loads up, sometimes the ball is inaccurate because it requires more effort than other QBs.
Mac has an ok arm, and for the Pats offense it’s probably perfectly fine. However the difference between his arm and someone like Fields is why he’s viewed more as a higher floor, lower ceiling guy.
I don’t disagree that his arm is fine. Tools usually equate to margin of error. So if his arm is good but not great, he has to get the ball out on time to hit a window. He doesn’t have the luxury of being late on reads.You can find clips of every even great NFL quarterback with any number of under throws. That’s not the issue to me. The issue is whether Jones has the arm to get it there when it needs to be there. And I have seen enough clips of him throwing absolute lasers into coverage and hitting deep balls in stride to tell me that he has the ability to get it there. I just don’t know that lack of arm strength is going to be an issue. Plus, of course, I believe his arm strength will improve.
Possible. Generally though Bad Cam was ugly, but he had some floor because he didn't turn it over that much and he could run. The issue with rookie QBs a lot of the time is that they just turn it over and take negative plays way too much.You may be right, but having a reasonable floor as "Bad Cam" is painful to think about.
I think that by midseason, "Good Mac" (let's say he's exceeding midpoint expectations in practices and limited game action) has a pretty decent shot to be better than the bad version of Cam we saw mid to late last season.
Focusing on the word "bust" to miss the point that your post was really a bad one is kind of disingenuous.And you're the one pretending that means I called him a bust. I didn't. At all. Your continued disingenuous faux outrage is tiresome.
The second round tonight. They should cut their losses with Jones now.After reading through this thread, there's really only one question left to be answered about Jones:
When do the Patriots begin thinking about drafting his replacement?
Jarret Stidham weeps.View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1388153336919117825
Poor choice of words here by Rapsheet IMO
No, you are the only person to watch his tapes. Guys like SMU and those that get paid to do this haven't bother to watch tape of Jones.Have people watched his tape?
I agree that the Burrow comparisons are hard to make and doesn’t have Burrow’s mobility, but he also didn’t really need it. Burrow was pressured at least twice as often as Mac (I think it was something like 16% pressure rate vs closer to 30% for Burrow).I wouldn’t read much into his RAC numbers. Way too much noise with the scheme and the receivers he had.
I have been through 6 games with him. 2 from 2019 and 4 from 2020. He doesn’t have Burrow’s kind of elite placement and accuracy: 44 tight window throws vs 120+ for Joe via PFF. You’re going to see a lot of underthrows on deeper balls where his receivers rescued him. You will also see balls sails on him. He doesn’t have Burrow’s kind of pocket mobility too.
If anyone wants to go through Mac Jones at 6:00pm eastern I am game to zoom. I’ve come around on Jones even if I’m not at @EL Jeffe levels. I think our biggest disagreement is I am not going to budge much on my eval of his arm strength and ball placement right now. I absolutely believe he can improve there though.
View: https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/1345092582414626817?lang=enI agree that the Burrow comparisons are hard to make and doesn’t have Burrow’s mobility, but he also didn’t really need it. Burrow was pressured at least twice as often as Mac (I think it was something like 16% pressure rate vs closer to 30% for Burrow).
As to the tight window throws - how much of that is Burrow is just elite vs Mac didn’t need to throw in as many tight windows? I’m not making an argument I’m just curious how you analyze it. Burrow is also older and had quite a few more starts before his breakout. While Mac might not have the improv skills of Burrow, maybe there’s more development there in terms of ball placement.
From a pure arm strength perspective, I don’t see a difference between Burrow and Jones.
It's okay that Jones isn't as good as Burrow. The Pats don't need him to be.View: https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/1345092582414626817?lang=en
Part of it is Jones didn't do that well throwing into tight windows when he needed to. It's my biggest concern (and I do think his armstrength isn't as good as Burrow).
That would mean running a sub 4.0 Forty...which would be Bolt-ing.Is Mac Jones the only player in college history to have a higher GPA than 40 time? I mean I haven’t actually seen his 40 time, just assuming based on visual evidence from this thread.
I mean.... yes, but at the same time if NFL Jones is significantly worse than NFL Burrow he's probably not a starter.It's okay that Jones isn't as good as Burrow. The Pats don't need him to be.
True. Unless Burrow is a generational player and "significantly worse" can still be "good NFL starter".I mean.... yes, but at the same time if NFL Jones is significantly worse than NFL Burrow he's probably not a starter.
Bama's also one of those schools where a 4.0 isn't necessarily straight As; you can have a few lower grades mixed in there because A+s are worth more than 4 (oddly, though, if your final GPA comes out above 4 they list it as 4.0 instead of what it actually was).Mac's 4.0 at Alabama calls to mind the John Cena SNL sketch. I'm sure academics for the starting QB at the University of Alabama is very rigorous in real life, though.
I hear that. I’ll continue to hope that the graph on 80th percentile 2021 Mac crosses with 20th percentile 2021 Cam at some point this season.Possible. Generally though Bad Cam was ugly, but he had some floor because he didn't turn it over that much and he could run. The issue with rookie QBs a lot of the time is that they just turn it over and take negative plays way too much.
Say the last 4 games of last year, Cam's worst stretch... he took an awful 12 sacks... but he didn't have a single turnover. Then take someone like Tua, a pretty good high pedigree rookie.. he took 10 sacks and turned it over 5 times in his last 4 games, or looking at the mid-round picks in 2019...
Jones... 38 sacks 32 TOs in 12 starts
Haskins- 23 sacks 13 TOs in 7 starts
Josh Allen rookie year.. 28 sacks 20 TOs in 11 starts.
100% with you. My biggest issue with him was - for a guy with his physical tools you really want them to have elite accuracy AND placement. But it is clear his mechanics are impacting his throws and if he works hard enough at that he can change it. But yeah, I am with you.View: https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/1345092582414626817?lang=en
Part of it is Jones didn't do that well throwing into tight windows when he needed to. It's my biggest concern (and I do think his armstrength isn't as good as Burrow).
Something about this stat example really confuses me:View: https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/1345092582414626817?lang=en
Part of it is Jones didn't do that well throwing into tight windows when he needed to. It's my biggest concern (and I do think his armstrength isn't as good as Burrow).
Pennington also retired after an NFL career that lasted over a decade with the best completion % in league history, and averaged about the same Y/A as Cam Newton and Matt Stafford. I get that Brady made us all jaded, but if a draft pick turns out to be Chad Pennington that's a lot better than you'd normally expect.In regards to the Pennington comps. I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to Pennington. From my recollection, Pennington was a pretty good QB and it wasn't until major rotator cuff injury and surgery that his arm strength became an issue. I remember him looking really bad at the end. I don't recall any issues with his arm strength early in his career.
Good question - it's not like they played in difference conferences. Same opponents (generally).Something about this stat example really confuses me:
According to this, Burrow averaged 13 "tight window" attempted throws per game in 2019, whereas Mac Jones only averaged 6 per game in 2020. The question to me is why Burrow faced more than 2x the number of tight window throws per game that Jones did. I mean, it's not like Burrow was throwing to a group of less talented receivers in Jefferson, Chase and Edwards-Helaire, all of whom were first round NFL picks. Terrace Marshall Jr will probably get his name called today as well. That's a really skilled group of pass-catchers and it seems like a stretch to say that they were twice as likely to struggle to get as "wide open" as Smith, Waddle, Metchie and Harris.
Is it possible that Jones is better than Burrow at finding open receivers?
Good question. I mean, Jefferson, Chase, and CEH are every bit as good as Waddle, Smith, and Harris. Both teams were absolutely off the charts good offensively (both undefeated national champs). Why would Burrow be throwing to that many more tight windows? It doesn't make sense to think that Jefferson and Chase couldn't get as open as Smith and Waddle, based on their respective skill levels. So what's the reason for this? It's worth exploring.Something about this stat example really confuses me:
According to this, Burrow averaged 13 "tight window" attempted throws per game in 2019, whereas Mac Jones only averaged 6 per game in 2020. The question to me is why Burrow faced more than 2x the number of tight window throws per game that Jones did. I mean, it's not like Burrow was throwing to a group of less talented receivers in Jefferson, Chase and Edwards-Helaire, all of whom were first round NFL picks. Terrace Marshall Jr will probably get his name called today as well. That's a really skilled group of pass-catchers and it seems like a stretch to say that they were twice as likely to struggle to get as "wide open" as Smith, Waddle, Metchie and Harris.
Is it possible that Jones is better than Burrow at finding open receivers?
Haha I think a real objection may have been more interesting. "What are you doing Bill we need to trade down NOW this kid is garbage!!!"Maybe it's interesting that BB cares what other people think?
I would guess that "tight window throws" is a pretty subjective measure and if you had different people charting games you could end up with pretty different rates.Something about this stat example really confuses me:
According to this, Burrow averaged 13 "tight window" attempted throws per game in 2019, whereas Mac Jones only averaged 6 per game in 2020. The question to me is why Burrow faced more than 2x the number of tight window throws per game that Jones did. I mean, it's not like Burrow was throwing to a group of less talented receivers in Jefferson, Chase and Edwards-Helaire, all of whom were first round NFL picks. Terrace Marshall Jr will probably get his name called today as well. That's a really skilled group of pass-catchers and it seems like a stretch to say that they were twice as likely to struggle to get as "wide open" as Smith, Waddle, Metchie and Harris.
Is it possible that Jones is better than Burrow at finding open receivers?
Yep, I was waiting for someone to come to that conclusion too. Which means that the stat itself as a measure of QB effectiveness is relatively worthless. Any time you've got a highly subjective stat that doesn't seem to stand up to logic, it's safe to say that you can probably ignore it completely.I would guess that "tight window throws" is a pretty subjective measure and if you had different people charting games you could end up with pretty different rates.
Part of it is volume... Burrow threw 31% more passes overall.Something about this stat example really confuses me:
According to this, Burrow averaged 13 "tight window" attempted throws per game in 2019, whereas Mac Jones only averaged 6 per game in 2020. The question to me is why Burrow faced more than 2x the number of tight window throws per game that Jones did. I mean, it's not like Burrow was throwing to a group of less talented receivers in Jefferson, Chase and Edwards-Helaire, all of whom were first round NFL picks. Terrace Marshall Jr will probably get his name called today as well. That's a really skilled group of pass-catchers and it seems like a stretch to say that they were twice as likely to struggle to get as "wide open" as Smith, Waddle, Metchie and Harris.
Is it possible that Jones is better than Burrow at finding open receivers?