This is absolutely correct.I'm still going to challenge it; a healthy Kemba Walker isn't going to lose minutes to Brad Wanamaker.
This is absolutely correct.I'm still going to challenge it; a healthy Kemba Walker isn't going to lose minutes to Brad Wanamaker.
This seems right. They'll live with Jimmy shooting over screens, the same way that they lived with Ibaka launching from deep or Siakam posting...because the alternative is worse. JB getting in foul trouble or Jimmy getting easy elbow jumpers is bad.I'm still going to challenge it; a healthy Kemba Walker isn't going to lose minutes to Brad Wanamaker. And while, if everyone is healthy, I think we could see stretches where Smart plays with the starters, I don't think it'll materially decrease Kemba's minutes.
I don't buy that Jimmy Butler has magically become a good three point shooter in the bubble. He shot 24% from three this year, which probably is a bit of an outlier as well. For his career, he's at 33%. I'd go under screens against Butler all day and let him launch over the screen. That's not how Miami wants to play on offense; they want to move the ball, attack the interior of the defense, and generate open looks for their best shooters. I think the C's need to dial down the switching in this series, keep Butler and Dragic out of the paint, and live with some of those Butler threes, even if they're going in.
I do think that Miami will pick on Kemba on offense, especially if they can get him switched onto Butler. I'm still way less concerned with that, given the rest of the Celtics' defense, than I would be about Kemba picking on guys like Goran Dragic or Duncan Robinson, if I were a Heat fan. Said differently, the matchup problems that Kemba gives the Heat on offense far outweigh his defensive limitations.
Agree Kemba will be targeted on defense, he always will be. If Duncan Robinson is attacking the basket off the dribble into the middle of the Celtics defense we can live with that. Not sure Coach Spo would be thrilled with that idea.Small sample and all but Butler has gone from a 24% 3-pt shooter during the regular season to hitting 9-18 in the bubble during the playoffs. Bubble shooting is much different for many players due to the great disparity in depth perception and sight lines down in Orlando.
In theory, it sounds so simple for Kemba to go over screens however this would play right into Miami’s hands as it would give the ballhandler angles off the dribble. This forces help which leads to shooters being open for 3. I expect Spo to target Kemba repeatedly to create mismatches as he is the guy the Heat want both defending the dribble as well as closing out on all of their perimater
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Kemba losing minutes this series to Wanamaker or a Smart/Hayward backcount if the latter returns.
So I shouldn't believe the bubble is the reason Grant Williams is 8 of 12 from three in postseason?I don't buy that Jimmy Butler has magically become a good three point shooter in the bubble. He shot 24% from three this year, which probably is a bit of an outlier as well. For his career, he's at 33%.
Or that Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell are Steph and Seth in Dell’s backyard. Depth perception is real. The bubble effect is real. We can discount individual increases based on sample size of one player but what about when the overall sample is consistent with other known factors?So I shouldn't believe the bubble is the reason Grant Williams is 8 of 12 from three in postseason?
100% agree on depth perception. Gyms vs Arenas vs Stadiums. I attended about 50 games in the Carrier Dome, and that place has probably the worst lighting/shooter depth perception on the planet. It affects long-distance/FT shooting for sure.Or that Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell are Steph and Seth in Dell’s backyard. Depth perception is real. The bubble effect is real. We can discount individual increases based on sample size of one player but what about when the overall sample is consistent with other known factors?
I don't think the overall sample shows that though. Sure, there are players like Murray and Mitchell who have shot lights out, but here are the pre-bubble and bubble 3P% shooting for all 8 teams that made it to the semi finals.Or that Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell are Steph and Seth in Dell’s backyard. Depth perception is real. The bubble effect is real. We can discount individual increases based on sample size of one player but what about when the overall sample is consistent with other known factors?
Yeah Jimmy on Kemba is really the only gross matchup here, and CBS will find a way to mostly stay out of that. If that means more 3s for Jimmy, they'll have to live with it. Sitting down Kemba is a terrible alternative, as that allows Miami to blitz Tatum and frankly leaves way too many points on the table with Kemba generating easy shots off breaking down Miami guards. Dragic isn't terrible, but he's a big step down from Lowry/FVV on Kemba, and Robinson/Herro is highlight film stuff.100% agree on depth perception. Gyms vs Arenas vs Stadiums. I attended about 50 games in the Carrier Dome, and that place has probably the worst lighting/shooter depth perception on the planet. It affects long-distance/FT shooting for sure.
Just haven't seen Jimmy turn up the # of attempts in the bubble vs. the regular season. It's a pick your poison situation, Jaylen chasing over screens screams Butler free-throws attempts. I think we'll see Jaylen go under and not get Kemba switched on to Jimmy, which was my original point.
Is that including the playoffs? Because if so, you’d have to figure it accounts for significantly more intense defenses.I don't think the overall sample shows that though. Sure, there are players like Murray and Mitchell who have shot lights out, but here are the pre-bubble and bubble 3P% shooting for all 8 teams that made it to the semi finals.
LAC - 36.8 vs 40.8 (+4.0)
TOR - 37.1 vs 39.1 (+2.0)
BOS - 36.3 vs 37.4 (+1.1)
DEN - 35.8 vs 36.6 (+0.8)
MIL - 35.6 vs 34.5 (-1.1)
HOU - 34.8 vs 32.6 (-2.2)
MIA - 38.3 vs 34.8 (-3.5)
LAL - 35.4 vs 30.3 (-5.1)
That did not include the playoffs. Playoff shooting looks like thisIs that including the playoffs? Because if so, you’d have to figure it accounts for significantly more intense defenses.
There’s been a lot of talk about improved shooting in the bubble, with a bunch of players talking about the better sight lines, and benefit of playing on the same court night after night. 538 wrote a piece on it:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-have-nba-offenses-been-so-good-in-the-bubble/amp/
I totally overlooked this when I asked, but since bad teams (correlated with bad defenses) didn’t even make the bubble, it’s tougher to compare regular season vs bubble.That did not include the playoffs. Playoff shooting looks like this
That article is from AUG 20. At that point, teams were averaging 113.17 points per 100 possessions.Is that including the playoffs? Because if so, you’d have to figure it accounts for significantly more intense defenses.
There’s been a lot of talk about improved shooting in the bubble, with a bunch of players talking about the better sight lines, and benefit of playing on the same court night after night. 538 wrote a piece on it:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-have-nba-offenses-been-so-good-in-the-bubble/amp/
Right, so the article is looking at all regular season bubble games. I’m not sure why you’re just looking at 8 teams. In any event, I specifically pointed out that it was bad to look at playoff vs regular season numbers- because defense is more intense in the playoffs, and playoff teams typically don’t get to feast upon the worst defenses in the league like they do in the regular season. Then, as I later noted, the latter was true for bubble teams even before the playoffs since the bubble was mostly comprised of good defensive teams.That article is from AUG 20. At that point, teams were averaging 113.17 points per 100 possessions.
In the playoffs, only 3 teams are scoring that efficiently. However, compared to the previosu few years, scoring is way up in the playoffs
Which are what? Not being sarcastic/snarky, honestly curious.Some data. Miami was 21-31 down low. That is 67.7%. They also shot 47.1% from the field. Once Stevens gets done yelling at Kemba to try harder and Tatum for not being ready and himself for all the things he did wrong, he has some actual fixes he can make.
I don’t think anyone in the gamethread thinks Kemba needs to “try harder” or “just play better”. I think we’re concerned his knee is bothering him again and he is physically incapable of playing better.Some data. Miami was 21-31 down low. That is 67.7%. They also shot 47.1% from the field. Once Stevens gets done yelling at Kemba to try harder and Tatum for not being ready and himself for all the things he did wrong, he has some actual fixes he can make.
Congrats champ, you finally got something right.DD is echoing every point I came here to make regarding shooting in bubble and the decrease in playoff shooting due to defensive intensity/game plan.
For starters, they need to do a better job on Dragic. He was 8-11 in the painted area. They clearly also need to be more connected to Crowder. That is just for starters.Which are what? Not being sarcastic/snarky, honestly curious.
Edit: I do think Brad should be playing Wanamaker more over Kemba. That's not just a knee-jerk reaction to Kemba's struggles in this game - when BW came in was one of the Cs better stretches because he's more of a facilitator, is better on defense, and doesn't try to do too much. Plus, if Kemba is still hurting, getting him more rest earlier in games is a good idea anyway.
This. I'm very concerned. He is struggling to generate space against Tyler Herro.I don’t think anyone in the gamethread thinks Kemba needs to “try harder” or “just play better”. I think we’re concerned his knee is bothering him again and he is physically incapable of playing better.
And the Kemba we’ve seen the last few games is a major liability on both ends. We haven’t heard anything about his knee or treatment so it’s all speculation, but to me he looks way slower than he did against Philly and in the first half of the Toronto series.
How many 6-foot scoring guards have not fallen off a cliff once they hit age 30? Even the best of them all, Allen Iverson, did and he wasn’t really damaged goods. The energy and effort, the wear and tear, that a 6-foot guard has to generate is what causes them to consistently break down quicker than other position players or style of players. Kemba has gone HARD for the past dozen years dating back to UConn. Similar to Isaiah.....that tank is close to E.I don’t think anyone in the gamethread thinks Kemba needs to “try harder” or “just play better”. I think we’re concerned his knee is bothering him again and he is physically incapable of playing better.
And the Kemba we’ve seen the last few games is a major liability on both ends. We haven’t heard anything about his knee or treatment so it’s all speculation, but to me he looks way slower than he did against Philly and in the first half of the Toronto series.
Agree on both counts. This team gets incredibly tight when trying to hold on to late leads. That stretch after 105-100 lead was just pure trash. You simply can’t blow 5 point leads with a minute to go. They were 1 stop away from winning the game...again.Two things stood out to me and probably a lot of other folks in the last few games:
1) The end of game / overtime offense is just horrible. This team tightens up way, way, too much, way too early. Meanwhile Miami runs their offense, for better or worse.
2) Something is wrong with Kemba. He was stumbling a lot, especially when driving. Didn't often lead to turnovers but just killed the flow of their offense. I don't think the floor was particularly slippery.
That's a stretch. The C's went up five on a Kemba jumper with 1:09 left, and Herro hit a 3-pointer seven seconds later.You simply can’t blow 5 point leads with a minute to go.
It was a 2 point lead because they didn’t get a stop. The fact of the matter is they were up 5 with 1:09 to go. They were 1 stop away from a win. Get a stop on that possession and it’s over. Get a score on the ensuing possession and it’s not over but it’s close. They failed on both accounts. Right after the Herro make, Kemba didn’t even get a shot off. Just terrible execution.That's a stretch. The C's went up five on a Kemba jumper with 1:09 left, and Herro hit a 3-pointer seven seconds later.
It might have been different had the C's had a five-point lead and possession, but this was a two-point game with a minute left.
Did the C's look awful in the final minute, especially on offense? Absolutely. But a two-point lead is anything but insurmountable.
Agreed. Bad losses happen all the time. We’ve already seen some really bad ones these past few games. It sucks but it’s one game. I’m more concerned about...Glass half full take: Miami won't continue to shoot 44% from three. Grant Williams has discovered a good three-point shot and is becoming much more valuable on the second unit. Wanamaker had a great game. Maybe he matches up well against Miami?
Glass half empty take: Kemba looks worse than ever. Notice that he's not taking charges anymore? Not sure if it's because he's not quick enough to get in position or doesn't want to risk tweaking the knee. Also, zone seemed to bother Celts at times, though that should be fixable. Also, Miami just seemed to have a better game plan than the Celts last night.
Yep. I didn't wake up feeling particularly optimistic either. Miami is just going to keep playing zone and, like against Toronto, the Celtics have no answer for it with a Kemba who is getting trapped so easily. I said it in the GT and maybe it's crazy, but I'd absolutely try Kanter off the bench tomorrow. Rob Williams wasn't effective, the small-ball lineups weren't effective, and Miami has nobody who can check Kanter inside.Agreed. Bad losses happen all the time. We’ve already seen some really bad ones these past few games. It sucks but it’s one game. I’m more concerned about...
The Kemba issues just have me feeling very pessimistic right now. The version of Kemba is a complete albatross hanging over the Celtics’ neck. We’re still waiting for Hayward to come back and even when he does, we have to temper our expectations. Tatum can’t be a superstar every game against Butler. Jaylen obviously needs to play better as well for us to have a chance at beating these guys 4 times in 6 games.
I mean, if we’re going to give up a million wide open 3’s without Kanter anyways, might as well see if he can give us an offensive boost off the bench.Yep. I didn't wake up feeling particularly optimistic either. Miami is just going to keep playing zone and, like against Toronto, the Celtics have no answer for it with a Kemba who is getting trapped so easily. I said it in the GT and maybe it's crazy, but I'd absolutely try Kanter off the bench tomorrow. Rob Williams wasn't effective, the small-ball lineups weren't effective, and Miami has nobody who can check Kanter inside.
I’m not sure what else the Celtics could have done on that possession. The defense forced Herro to make a contested 3 off the dribble.It was a 2 point lead because they didn’t get a stop. The fact of the matter is they were up 5 with 1:09 to go. They were 1 stop away from a win. Get a stop on that possession and it’s over. Get a score on the ensuing possession and it’s not over but it’s close. They failed on both accounts. Right after the Herro make, Kemba didn’t even get a shot off. Just terrible execution.
Isn't the solution here getting Kemba to pass the damn ball earlier? It's not like he should be surprised that the trap is coming yet he keeps getting pressed to the half-court by two guys and has to make really difficult passes out of it, which throws off the whole rhythm of the offense because it's so much easier for Miami to get into position to defend the player receiving the pass when that player has to reach for a pass coming at them from a shitty angle. Coach needs to come up with something here asap because this what 6, 7, 8 straight games of them getting snuffed by the zone without any answers.Kemba who is getting trapped so easily.
It’s not about that one possession. They had a 5 point lead with 1:09 left and a 87.4% win probability. They gave up the 3. Then, they had a horrible possession and didn’t even get a shot off. Then, they gave up another 3. And then had another horrible possession to end it and were lucky to even get to OT.I’m not sure what else the Celtics could have done on that possession. The defense forced Herro to make a contested 3 off the dribble.
Kanter is unplayable against MIA's offense. While Kanter would certainly get a few points on offense, he'd given them all back on defense. MIA shoots to well to have someone who doesn't cover any ground on defense.Yep. I didn't wake up feeling particularly optimistic either. Miami is just going to keep playing zone and, like against Toronto, the Celtics have no answer for it with a Kemba who is getting trapped so easily. I said it in the GT and maybe it's crazy, but I'd absolutely try Kanter off the bench tomorrow. Rob Williams wasn't effective, the small-ball lineups weren't effective, and Miami has nobody who can check Kanter inside.
Yeah, that was just a killer shot by Herro. I cannot complain about the defense down the stretch, it was the fucking offense that killed the Celtics.I’m not sure what else the Celtics could have done on that possession. The defense forced Herro to make a contested 3 off the dribble.
They gave up 35 points in the 4th quarter. The defense was absolutely part of the problem.Yeah, that was just a killer shot by Herro. I cannot complain about the defense down the stretch, it was the fucking offense that killed the Celtics.
Kanter would be a nightmare on the floor for us. If you think that the Heat were targeting Kemba in the paint on switches now they would have another easy 2 or an open 3 virtually every time down the floor.I mean, if we’re going to give up a million wide open 3’s without Kanter anyways, might as well see if he can give us an offensive boost off the bench.
If they were tired, and I agree that that played a factor, the every other day schedule isn't going to do them any favors in that regard.I attribute this loss to the Celtics being exhausted from a seven game war against Toronto.
Giving up a bunch of easy 2’s would be a relief at this point given all the easy 3’s they gave up. I’m just irritated today. Hate losing to Riley and hate giving games away like that.Kanter would be a nightmare on the floor for us. If you think that the Heat were targeting Kemba in the paint on switches now they would have another easy 2 virtually every time down the floor.
It’s Game 1 and as I wrote the other day, Miami is going to get clean looks from 3 at the start of the series until the defense becomes accustomed to how and where they are getting these shots. We were going to have a ton of trouble winning the first two games for this reason. If we don’t adapt to what they are doing then the Heat likely will continue to hit 40-45% of their 3’s however as the series progresses they shouldn’t have nearly as many open looks as last night.