The Goat Thread: Wk 4 vs Bills - Patriots didn't cheat enough

BaseballJones

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I would not give the defense a pass. Poor play on D was a major factor in putting them in a 13-0 hole, and the D let Buffalo control the ball all game. They forced only one three-and-out and zero turnovers. Buffalo only had nine drives - they scored on four of them, missed a FG on a fifth, and had two drives where they dominated clock (running 4 of the last 5 minutes off in Q2 and running 6 minutes off in Q4) before punting.

The offense was the bigger problem yesterday, but that should be expected with Brissett (who might not have been healthy). They needed the D to step up like it did against Houston, and it fell flat on its face.
Nobody gets a pass for yesterday's performance.

But as crappy as it was, keep in mind that:

- The Bills were playing their "Super Bowl".
- No Brady, no Ninkovich, and basically no Gronk.
- No JG either, when most of us thought he was going to start.
- Brissett playing with an injured right thumb, which got whacked several times yesterday.
- Some very, very bad reffing that really hurt the Pats.
- Lost opportunity for like 17 points (7 on the 90 yard play that got called back, 7 or at least 3 on the bad spot/refs out of position/Pats penalty/Brissett fumble sequence, and then Ghost uncharacteristically missing a FG).
- Holding Buffalo to just 16 points despite shaky defense.

The Pats had basically everything going against them yesterday and the result *easily* could have been different.

I'll take 3-1 with Brady returning. I really hope Gronk gets better. I'm dying to see him and Bennett on the field together.
 

lexrageorge

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Offensively, it's a bit unfair to put everything on Brissett. Consider the Pats drives:

1. Opening big reception negated by two dumb and unnecessary penalties committed by the Pats. Blount is later stopped 1 yard short of a first down, for which credit should go to the Bills for making a good tackle (that happens). Punt.

2. Brissett completes first down pass to set up 2nd-and-short, but then the coaching staff got cute and the direct snap to Edelman was sniffed out by the defense (and the home audience and the announcers) before the play even begun. Third down would have been a good time to put the ball in Blount's hands, but instead they call some strange James White run that goes nowhere. Punt.

3. Brissett completes pass to Bennett to open drive. But then a false start sets up a 3rd-and-15. Punt.

4. The drive starts on yet another nice completion to Bennett. But Blount's carry that would have set up first and goal from the 7 was negated by yet another penalty on the Patriots. Brissett was put into a difficult situation facing 3rd-and-11 and the result is a sack and fumble.

5. Brissett is sacked for a 14 yard loss on the first play of the drive, and the Pats decide to run out the clock to end the half. By this point, Brissett had completed 4 passes, but only out of 6 attempts. The fumble was on him, but of the 4 real drives in the first half, 3 were affected by penalties, and the other by just poor play calling on the part of the coaching staff.

Meanwhile, the defense allowed the Bills to score on their first 3 drives, and chew up 4 minutes of clock on the 4th, which basically meant that the Pats would get the ball back with only a minute left in the half, starting from their own 20 with a rookie 3rd string QB playing with a bad thumb. Looking at the 2nd half drives:

1. Brissett probably did about you can really ask of him to start, completing 4 of 6 passes. A bit of a coaching error here, as they probably should have run the ball more on that final set of downs. Then Ghost turns into a ghost.

2. A chop block and a false start dooms whatever chance this drive had of going anywhere. Asking Brady to pick up a 3rd-and-19 is one thing; asking that of your rookie QB is another.

3. 2 more penalties (one declined) destroys the opening drive of the 4th quarter. Jacoby gets sacked on 3rd-and-15.

4. Thanks to the Pats defense, the Bills 3 drives following their opening 3-and-out have chewed up over 13 minutes of clock, including 6 minutes of the 3rd quarter. Essentially needing 3 scores with 7 minutes to go, the Pats are now in desperation mode, and fall short after moving deep into Bills territory. Brissett did show he's not exactly ready for prime time here.

5. End of game.

Ignoring the two end of half drives, I count 5 of 8 drives that were basically destroyed by penalties, one by a missed field goal, one by poor play calling, and one by desperation. And the fact that the Pats had the ball for only 7 meaningful drives is 100% on the defense.

Anyway, big picture is that the Pats went 3-1 without Brady and with a limited Gronk. And Ninkovich. Garappolo showed he can play if something should happen to Brady, and I would assume he'll be ready to go in a couple of weeks. The defense is a concern, in that there's been a lot of inconsistency early in the season. As for the penalties and generally uninspired play by the Pats, I would put this game in the same category as one those weird losses that happens every season (home against Arizona, in Cleveland, in KC, home against the Eagles last year, the other Bills win in Gillette, that game in Baltimore they should have lost in 2007). The fact that's it's fairly easy to name them without doing a lot of recall shows how rare those type of games have been under Belichick/Brady.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Whaddayaknow department: every team in the AFC has played 4 games. NEP have allowed the least points at 61 (Denver is next at 64).

In the point differential stat, NEP is 3rd:
  1. Denver: +47
  2. Pitt: +28
  3. NEP: +20
That's because the Brady-less offense has scored a very non-Patriots like 81 points so far, only good for 10th in the AFC.
 

Stitch01

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If the D "wore down" it was in part because of the O but also in part because they were totally unable to get off the field. Buffalo marched down the field with a 7:11, 12-play TD drive when the D was fully rested at the beginning of the game. Only on two drives was the D able to get the Bills off the field in fewer than eight plays, and one of those was the last drive of the game where the outcome was settled.

Not all 16 point defensive performances are equal. Usually, that's an excellent defensive performance. Yesterday, the D was bad and still allowed only 16 points.
I thought Taylor played a good game. The defensive game plan seemed to be centered around making Taylor complete underneath throws accurately and consistently enough to sustain a drive and he did a good job of it. Also thought the D played well in the second half, particularly given the time of possession advantage.

I dont think it was a strong performance by the defense or anything. They didnt get a lot of pressure and were mediocre on early downs (bad first half, pretty good second half). But it was the kind of defensive performance that usually wins with a Brady led offense. Id classify it as more uninspiring than bad.

Two concerns on defense, to me, are 1) the front seven hasnt done a good job getting pressure outside of the Houston game. They are getting almost no pressure with four and even when they blitz they arent really getting there (or the offense has a good play on, like on the Bills TD yesterday). Hard to see how this can be a top five unit or w/e without consistent pressure in the QB

2) Ive been trying to think about turnovers and how to think about them

Biggest hallmark of BB/Brady teams has been winning turnover battles, they do that every year.

Outside of turnovers, I think this defense (while not quite the elite unit we'd hope for) has gotten much better over the last several years, but they aren't getting turnovers the weaker units did earlier in the decade.

Last year they were 5th, which is actually low for a BB/Brady team (3rd, 8th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 10th, 3rd, 5th in the other Brady/BB years, +7 lowest since 2009), but 22nd in takeaways.

This year, early, and turnovers correlate with a good offense and playing from ahead, but the defense isn't taking the ball away very much (2 of the fumbles in the Houston games were on special teams, which obviously count for the team, but not as much in figuring out how to evaluate the defense)

(Buffalo -1, 0, 1)
Houston +3, 3, 0)
(Miami +3, 4, 1)
(Arizona -2, 0, 2)

Turnovers can be sort of fluky, so I don't know if there's anything to take from this, but the defense hasn't been taking the ball away as much lately (takeaways since 2010: 38, 34, 41, 29, 25, 21)

Could be good news (defense can expect to get more turnovers going forward, I didn't get a chance to dig through fumble/recovery stats), bad news (defense doesn't force as many turnovers as they used to), no news (team just ran white hot for a few years, nothing much to take away there).
 

Valek123

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I thought the Defense played very well given the fact they basically lived on the field for 60% of the game and were constantly put in horrible situations. The injuries and suspensions caught up with them, no big deal. 3-1 with all that's gone down is house money.

My biggest concern is the injuries up-front on defense as they seem to be stacking up. The offense with Brady even with the injuries will be fine, the defense is catching some tough luck right now but still grinding games out.
 

Morning Woodhead

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Is it too early to be worried about Ghost? He seems to kissing the uprights this year, either just in or just out. Obviously ended poorly last year too in Denver.
 

heavyde050

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They mostly looked fine to me.

Brisset was holding the ball forever - which made them look worse than they were. He's just not an NFL quarterback at this point - he missed too many open passes, did too many dumb things (which is entirely expected for a rookie at this point)

And while the defense wasn't great, they held a team to 16 points who put up >30 in both their previous games, while the offense turned the ball over and generally did nothing. They weren't the problem.
Jacoby, who by no means was great yesterday, was not helped out by the offense either.
He definitely missed a wide open Amendola that most good QBs would make that pass, but Bolden dropped an almost perfect pass for a TD.
JB is a rookie and I expected the uneven performance.
It also doesn't help when Hogan has two penalties on the same play to negate a 90 yard play.
Also, the refs really put him in some unenviable positions specifically on the attempted hurry up on third and short when the refs couldn't get set in time.
 

Super Nomario

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I thought Taylor played a good game. The defensive game plan seemed to be centered around making Taylor complete underneath throws accurately and consistently enough to sustain a drive and he did a good job of it. Also thought the D played well in the second half, particularly given the time of possession advantage.

I dont think it was a strong performance by the defense or anything. They didnt get a lot of pressure and were mediocre on early downs (bad first half, pretty good second half). But it was the kind of defensive performance that usually wins with a Brady led offense. Id classify it as more uninspiring than bad.

Two concerns on defense, to me, are 1) the front seven hasnt done a good job getting pressure outside of the Houston game. They are getting almost no pressure with four and even when they blitz they arent really getting there (or the offense has a good play on, like on the Bills TD yesterday). Hard to see how this can be a top five unit or w/e without consistent pressure in the QB
I'm not as high as you on the second half - I think Buffalo realized the Pats would have trouble scoring and just focused on chewing up clock, which they did - but I agree everything else you wrote. Pats took away the deep stuff (Bills didn't have a gain longer than 23 yards) and dared Buffalo to matriculate down the field, which they did with ease. There were a lot of three-man rushes and attempts to keep Taylor in the pocket, but he still made some plays scrambling and the pass rush was non-existent.

2) Ive been trying to think about turnovers and how to think about them

Biggest hallmark of BB/Brady teams has been winning turnover battles, they do that every year.

Outside of turnovers, I think this defense (while not quite the elite unit we'd hope for) has gotten much better over the last several years, but they aren't getting turnovers the weaker units did earlier in the decade.

Last year they were 5th, which is actually low for a BB/Brady team (3rd, 8th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 10th, 3rd, 5th in the other Brady/BB years, +7 lowest since 2009), but 22nd in takeaways.

This year, early, and turnovers correlate with a good offense and playing from ahead, but the defense isn't taking the ball away very much (2 of the fumbles in the Houston games were on special teams, which obviously count for the team, but not as much in figuring out how to evaluate the defense)

(Buffalo -1, 0, 1)
Houston +3, 3, 0)
(Miami +3, 4, 1)
(Arizona -2, 0, 2)

Turnovers can be sort of fluky, so I don't know if there's anything to take from this, but the defense hasn't been taking the ball away as much lately (takeaways since 2010: 38, 34, 41, 29, 25, 21)

Could be good news (defense can expect to get more turnovers going forward, I didn't get a chance to dig through fumble/recovery stats), bad news (defense doesn't force as many turnovers as they used to), no news (team just ran white hot for a few years, nothing much to take away there).
Turnovers basically come from two places: forced fumbles on sacks (~20% of sacks force fumbles, while ~1.5-2% of other plays result in fumbles) and interceptions. The 2012 team (41 in your list) was insanely unsustainable at forcing fumbles on non-sacks; basically no one other than Charles Tillman and Tyronn Mathieu repeatedly generates fumbles on non-sacks.

I think the switch from primarily a zone defense (where defenders face the QB) to primarily a man-to-man defense (where their backs are to the QB) has led to fewer INTs. Of the 15 TB/BB Pats teams, 2013/4/5 are all in the bottom five in picks, and 2016 is on pace for the same 12 as last year. That puts them more dependent on the pass rush to generate turnovers via the strip-sack. Interestingly, last year was the highest sack total in the BB era (49) but that didn't translate into more fumble recoveries.

Worth noting also: turnover rate is down league-wide. It was a consistent 1.8 per game in 2003-5, 1.5 from 2014-current. That doesn't sound like a lot, but on a percentage basis it's significant.
 

Stitch01

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Is forcing fumbles on sacks something that tends to regress to the 20% or is it a skill?

EDIT: Yeah I didn't think they did a very good job containing Taylor. He didn't have many long scrambles but they had a number of plays where he got free and had an easy underneath throw to the side he was rolling towards.
 

Toe Nash

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Preparation gets mentioned because of the uncharacteristic stupid mental mistakes they made. Missing tackles is one thing, but that's a physical error. Aggravating, yes, but a product of doing. Being unable to figure out kickoff returns is quite another. Getting 2 penalties for lining up in the neutral zone is yet another. Getting called for 8 penalties plus a bunch more that were declined is yet another. Brissett not knowing when to slide and fumbling upon getting hit is yet another.

We rarely see this team make those kinds of stupid mental mistakes. I do see shitty teams like Jacksonville and Cleveland make them all the time.
So Cyrus Jones was unprepared (or he's just bad), the refs were flag-happy, and JB is a rookie facing a good aggressive defense. I don't see how this translates to "The team was unprepared because they had a big win 10 days before" that some people are saying.
 

tims4wins

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Is forcing fumbles on sacks something that tends to regress to the 20% or is it a skill?

EDIT: Yeah I didn't think they did a very good job containing Taylor. He didn't have many long scrambles but they had a number of plays where he got free and had an easy underneath throw to the side he was rolling towards.
Von Miller has 17 career FF and 65.5 career sacks, but not sure if some of the FF came on non-sacks. If not, his % would be 26%

JJ Watt has 15 on 76 sacks - same caveat as Miller - so just under 20%
 

Super Nomario

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Von Miller has 17 career FF and 65.5 career sacks, but not sure if some of the FF came on non-sacks. If not, his % would be 26%

JJ Watt has 15 on 76 sacks - same caveat as Miller - so just under 20%
Those were the first two guys I checked, too. I see 11 forced fumbles on sacks by Miller, so he's a bit below 20%. Robert Quinn has 14 forced fumbles on 52 career sacks; that's pretty high, but it's also within the realm of statistical noise. I think there's a problem where even the high-sack guys don't really have enough of a sample size to demonstrate a skill. Anecdotally, it would seem like the interior guys would have a harder time with the "hit the arm as he's pulling it back and knock the ball out" strip-sacks.

Actually, it looks like the 20% figure is wrong - it's more like 13-15%.
 

Stitch01

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IIRC there's skill in QBs not fumbling like there's skill to QBs avoiding sacks, so lots of variables. Was more thinking of it in the context of if the Pats were "unlucky" on fumbles on sacks last year, perhaps a place where they could expect to see improved results as we go forward this year.
 

tims4wins

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I would definitely believe there is a skill in not fumbling for QBs. Brady has become very good (though not completely immune) at avoiding them.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Is it too early to be worried about Ghost? He seems to kissing the uprights this year, either just in or just out. Obviously ended poorly last year too in Denver.
I think this is something many are glossing over. Kickers can go south quickly. I hope it's not the case here, he's been good for too long.

If he made that XP who knows what would have happened. Then he had 7 months to sit on it.
 

Stitch01

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Ghost has missed two kicks. I think its a bit early to press the panic button.

He hit two field goals in the 4th quarter including a 53 yarder in the opener, so Im not sure there's been Denver carryover.

Also been great on placing kickoffs.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Slater is clearly on tape signaling to take a knee on the opening kickoff.
That's the point. He's doing what a good leader would do. But the bigger problem is that (potentially) our best KR needs a 3rd base coach. Any Bama fans around to tell us if he did this shit in college? Drives me up the wall.
 

Stitch01

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I find it plausible its Slater's call and plausible that he didnt say to sit on the second one, but I was agreeing with you on the first kickoff.
 

Ed Hillel

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Amendola was on the radio today and said the rule when he returned kickoffs was take it out if you are within 5 yards of the end zone and not moving backwards when the ball is caught. He didn't think that had changed with the new kickoff rules. If that's the case, Belichick seriously ought to re-consider.
 

BigSoxFan

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Maybe I'm too risk averse but with this offense I'd rather just take the ball at the 25. We've returned 5 kicks this year and only 1 went past the 25....to the 26.
 

Stitch01

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Its a high variance strategy for sure. In a game like yesterdays I can see taking more risk on running the kick out. Obviously when your teammate is telling you to stay in the end zone rather than run it out, that doesnt apply.
 

tims4wins

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Not sure best place to put this but 3 Bills were fined for the pre-game scuffle. No word if any Pats were fined