Can we take a moment to recognize how insane it is that “3 or 4 seed and one playoff win” isn’t considered a successful season for this team?
I mean I know it isn’t given what they have accomplished, but the bar is kind of insanely high if we can’t appreciate a season like that. Most teams would absolutely take that at the start of the season.
This is what I shared in the game thread. The Patriots are 7-3. As of this moment, that's good for 3rd in the AFC, and 5th overall in the NFL. They should finish 11-5 at worst, win the division, and if things go right, be in the thick of the race for the #2 seed (sadly, I think #1 seed is gonna be almost impossible now).
This is what a very good team looks like. Very tough at home, and about .500 on the road. Let's look at some 10-6 to 12-4 teams from 2017 and 2016:
2017 Saints (11-5): 7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road
2017 Panthers (11-5): 6-2 at home, 5-3 on the road
2017 Falcons (10-6): 5-3 at home, 5-3 on the road
2017 Chiefs (10-6): 6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road
2017 Jaguars (10-6): 6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road
2016 Dolphins (10-6): 6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road
2016 Steelers (11-5): 6-2 at home, 5-3 on the road
2016 Raiders (12-4): 6-2 at home, 6-2 on the road
2016 Chiefs (12-4): 6-2 at home, 6-2 on the road
2016 Giants (11-5): 7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road
2016 Falcons (11-5): 5-3 at home, 6-2 on the road
2016 Seahawks (10-5-1): 7-1 at home, 3-4-1 on the road
And every one of those teams lost to a crummy-to-mediocre team or two. None of those teams were *elite* teams, but they were all good or very good. That's what the Patriots probably are at this point. Good or very good, but not elite. They can absolutely beat elite teams, if they play well, just like these teams listed above did. And it's not a stretch for them to beat an elite team. Not at all. I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots won the Super Bowl this year. I don't expect it given the bed they've made for themselves, but I wouldn't be surprised at all. But because they're not elite, their margin for error is much smaller than it used to be, and they can't afford to fall behind and make the kind of mistakes (coaching, kicking, tackling, coverage, communication, etc) that they've made and expect to get away with it.
But they're still really good. A few bad games doesn't make them not very good. Rest up on the bye. Get injured guys back. Then pound the Jets to go 8-3. Then beat the Vikings at home (which I think they'll do) to go 9-3. Then win in Miami to go 10-3, and then the biggie at Pittsburgh. Lose that one maybe (though they usually find a way against the Steelers) and then win the last two against conference foes and finish 12-4. Maybe 11-5. That's where I thought they'd be at the start of the year and that's where I think they'll be at the end. I just didn't quite see it playing out like this, with three losses on the road where they got manhandled by mediocre-to-bad teams.