Jerry Thornton was at the game so he could watch coverage schemes and said they played almost exclusively cover 2 and nothing "new wrinkley" for whatever that's worth.
The Game Ball Thread: Wk 14 vs Ravens
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That was my guess from the game feed. Its not the sexiest storyline but I think a lot of our success was just players like McCourty and Harmon playing well and executing relatively simple schemes.
I thought he was trying to throw it over the endzone and just couldn't get it out there.
My thoughts exactly. You have to consider how good BAL's defense has been.
The Pats averaged 7.6 yards per play. BAL has the 5th best yards per play against at 5.1. They went into the game 3rd best at 4.9. The Pats are averaging 6.1 yards per play for the season (not sure if updated from last night). The highest yards per play offense for the season is the Falcons at 6.5 yards. 7.6 is astounding.
Cover 2 is a bit unusual though, as they've been mostly a one-high safety team the past few seasons. I saw a lot of Chung deep, which is unusual. They were definitely mixing it up in the front six / seven in terms of who rushed and how many rushed.
A little bit. They've played cover two against Baltimore in previous matchups and the context is a discussion about playing more aggressive/not playing soft zones.
I didn't go back and chart it, but they certainly rushed corners more than I can remember. It didn't look like they brought more than four very often, mostly just mixed where the rush was coming from, and they did rush three a fair bit. ESPN showed a stat that the Pats had rushed 3 22% of the time for the season vs. 8% for the NFL average, but I haven't had time to go back and see if they were above/below that yesterday.
I didn't go back and chart it, but they certainly rushed corners more than I can remember. It didn't look like they brought more than four very often, mostly just mixed where the rush was coming from, and they did rush three a fair bit. ESPN showed a stat that the Pats had rushed 3 22% of the time for the season vs. 8% for the NFL average, but I haven't had time to go back and see if they were above/below that yesterday.
They did a fair amount of faking the double A gap blitz and dropping back into coverage yesterday. One notable play was KVN dropping back and tipping a ball straight up into the air.
I think that the defense did a fantastic job overall, outside of those two unfortunate situations where they were forced into short yardage/red zone drills by turnovers, and there were some standout performances in all three levels there.
That said, we should keep in mind that while the Ravens are one of the best teams that the Pats have faced this year overall, their offense is in the bottom 5-10 range in the NFL this season. Opponent strength matters when judging how well they did, especially in the context of the discussion around using points allowed as a measuring stick. While I loved a lot of the schemes I saw, rush packages, and the individual efforts (it seemed like the Pats were really flying to the ball), it helped that Flacco made a bunch of bad throws, and the Ravens were pretty one-dimensional on offense from the get go.
Obviously, you play the teams you are given, but it's worth noting that the only above-average offense we've played all year is Buffalo (not counting PIT w/o Ben), and that most of our games have been against the worst offenses in the league. I'm not saying that it means our defense is bad, just that it is very hard to evaluate. All that said, I really did think that they looked like a different unit last night, and they stepped up and made a lot of plays when they had to, regardless of the opponent.
That said, we should keep in mind that while the Ravens are one of the best teams that the Pats have faced this year overall, their offense is in the bottom 5-10 range in the NFL this season. Opponent strength matters when judging how well they did, especially in the context of the discussion around using points allowed as a measuring stick. While I loved a lot of the schemes I saw, rush packages, and the individual efforts (it seemed like the Pats were really flying to the ball), it helped that Flacco made a bunch of bad throws, and the Ravens were pretty one-dimensional on offense from the get go.
Obviously, you play the teams you are given, but it's worth noting that the only above-average offense we've played all year is Buffalo (not counting PIT w/o Ben), and that most of our games have been against the worst offenses in the league. I'm not saying that it means our defense is bad, just that it is very hard to evaluate. All that said, I really did think that they looked like a different unit last night, and they stepped up and made a lot of plays when they had to, regardless of the opponent.
With Ninkovich (who might have picked it off if not for KVN's tip) dropped into coverage even deeper.
What could have been, man. Wonder if he regrets not taking the New England deal and playing with Flacco instead of Brady at this point. He's have his ring, too. Maybe more than one.
You know who didn't get a game ball last night? Devin Hester:
Give em a call Bill! He'd be our best returner. (sarcasm)
Give em a call Bill! He'd be our best returner. (sarcasm)
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Smith had a few outbursts towards his own sideline during the game. I am guessing he is not a big fan of the checkdown offense being run.
I love how he accurately captured the concept of a shit sandwich without actually having to use the word "shit".
Has anyone figured out yet what Butler did to draw the personal foul? Cursory searches haven't been able to find anything yet.
I was in northern Virginia today, and in the rental on the way home I was stuck with their local sports talk.
First show was (I think) John Riggins and someone and they were sort of poo pooing all the Brady/Belichick records because it was just lucky they they hooked up so early in their respective careers and Riggins (???) actually said that if Joe Theismann had hooked up with Joe Gibbs earlier, then this would be a different conversation. Okay, that's ludicrous, but he then said, swear to God, "Maybe even Doug Williams and Gibbs. I mean, who knows?"
Who knows indeed Riggo?
The second show was Brian Mitchell and some others and they were genuflecting towards the Pats. "Why did I ever go against them? Why? Never again."
They also ragged on Harbaugh a bit "Hey, if that jumping over the center thing really pissed him off, it'll be illegal next year, watch"
First show was (I think) John Riggins and someone and they were sort of poo pooing all the Brady/Belichick records because it was just lucky they they hooked up so early in their respective careers and Riggins (???) actually said that if Joe Theismann had hooked up with Joe Gibbs earlier, then this would be a different conversation. Okay, that's ludicrous, but he then said, swear to God, "Maybe even Doug Williams and Gibbs. I mean, who knows?"
Who knows indeed Riggo?
The second show was Brian Mitchell and some others and they were genuflecting towards the Pats. "Why did I ever go against them? Why? Never again."
They also ragged on Harbaugh a bit "Hey, if that jumping over the center thing really pissed him off, it'll be illegal next year, watch"
The best part about the jumping over the center thing was in Collngsworth mind he was back to the old standard of if you simply touch the center it's a foul versus the standard the Cardinals got upset at where the guy brushed the center and it wasn't a foul.
DVOA/DYAR certainly has their problems but when I was browsing the individual rankings tonight I noticed something interesting.
Player: DVOA/Rank DYAR/Rank
The rank is for their position. For WR's they only rank players with a minimum of 50 receptions (83 players). For guys, like Amendola, who do not have 50+ passes I will give you their rank based on where they would fit in with the top 83 and mark it with a *. For running backs the rank is out of 45, for tight ends 44, and for QBs 32. Top ten are in bold and bottom ten underlined.
Brady: 34.6%/2nd 1,022/6th
Gronk: 51.9%/1st 155/4th
Bennett: 33.6%/4th 163/3rd
Edelman: -16.1%/72nd -34/75th
Amendola: 27.6%/4th* 86/42nd*
Hogan: 27.7%/4th* 150/25th *
Mitchell: 17.0%/10th* 104/37th*
White: 10.4%/10th* 24/21st*
Lewis: -18.8%/37th* -5/37th*
Aside from Lewis, who started his season mid-season, the only receiver with a negative DVOA and DYAR is Edelman. Football outsiders give us the following warnings:
Player: DVOA/Rank DYAR/Rank
The rank is for their position. For WR's they only rank players with a minimum of 50 receptions (83 players). For guys, like Amendola, who do not have 50+ passes I will give you their rank based on where they would fit in with the top 83 and mark it with a *. For running backs the rank is out of 45, for tight ends 44, and for QBs 32. Top ten are in bold and bottom ten underlined.
Brady: 34.6%/2nd 1,022/6th
Gronk: 51.9%/1st 155/4th
Bennett: 33.6%/4th 163/3rd
Edelman: -16.1%/72nd -34/75th
Amendola: 27.6%/4th* 86/42nd*
Hogan: 27.7%/4th* 150/25th *
Mitchell: 17.0%/10th* 104/37th*
White: 10.4%/10th* 24/21st*
Lewis: -18.8%/37th* -5/37th*
Aside from Lewis, who started his season mid-season, the only receiver with a negative DVOA and DYAR is Edelman. Football outsiders give us the following warnings:
- We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
- These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
- All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.
I have the misfortune of occasionally listening to Riggins on my commutes or whenever. That's about as lucid a commentary as you'll get from him. Maybe Trump will invite him to some official functions so we'll get more drunken incidents to amuse us.
And DC sports radio loves bashing the Ravens. So at least that's not bad.
Apropos of nothing, but from the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half of the AFC divisional game, through the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half on MNF - in other words, 60 straight minutes of football - the Pats outscored the Ravens 44-6.
Andy Hart @JumboHart 43s43 seconds ago
#Patriots run defense, which is now No. 6 in the #NFL, hasn't allowed a run longer than 9 yards in three-plus games.
#Patriots run defense, which is now No. 6 in the #NFL, hasn't allowed a run longer than 9 yards in three-plus games.
Yeah, obviously the four main components of their formula are targets, catches, TDs, and Y/C. Edelman has a 60:1 Target:TD ratio this year, so he'll be at the bottom of their ratings. In years where he scored more TD (2015, 2013) he did much better.
And outside of those times, they outscored us 48-21. In other words, I would like to not play this team again until fall 2017 at the earliest, our solid performance notwithstanding.
Meh I'd rather face them in Foxboro than Pittsburgh, Denver, KC, or Oakland. Or even Miami (if Tannehill is healthy). Or Buffalo. About the only opponent I would prefer over Baltimore is the south winner.And outside of those times, they outscored us 48-21. In other words, I would like to not play this team again until fall 2017 at the earliest, our solid performance notwithstanding.
Brady said today that he was trying to throw it out of the back of the end zone on the pick. Makes some sense. Bad execution.
This is by far his worst year by their measures as a full time contributor.
It's not just the lack of TD's it is also a decline in catch%, a dip in yards per catch, and probably a decline in "success" in a) the red zone, b) on 3rd downs, c) overall how they measure success. C was a bit redundant. Of course we'll never know the specifics unless Aaron Schatz fills us in on the contents of the black box. I'll ask him on twitter about it.
I declined to purchase PFF this year - how does he look there? How does he compare to other receiving options we have?
I assume BB kicks (maybe wrongly) there every time on 4th down to make it a three score game. So it was still kind of stupid not to just eat the sack when the difference is kicking a FG from the 8 instead of the 2.
Agreed, especially because he could have probably been called for grounding if he just chucked it way out of the end zone. Think he was still in the pocket.
Didn't Brady get called for that a few years ago?
I feel like he got called for that and the one in the end zone in the start of the Super Bowl that I've never seen called on anyone else.
Yeah in Seattle in 2012
And I agree he has been called for those two calls that I am pretty sure I have never seen called on anyone else
Grounding in that situation is really not that big a deal. In fact, if there's ever a time not to care about grounding, that's the play. It was third down and the difference between a 19 yard and a 29 yard field goal, while not nothing, is relatively insignificant.
DVOA (I know, I know) has the Ravens at #11, behind the Raiders but ahead of the Broncos (and Bills and Dolphins).
Honestly, without Gronk I would be nervous for a playoff game against any of the Chiefs, Raiders, Steelers, Ravens, or Broncos. Gotta get there first though, and make sure we play any of em at the Blade.
The grounding call in Seattle is definitely not something I've seen either before or since, and I could almost guarantee I see QB's throw balls over the back of the end zone on a regular basis. A couple of other points about that play that bear mentioning: there was 1 second left in the first half, so if Brady scrambled any longer to get outside the tackle box, time would have ticked off the clock anyway. IIRC, the refs took a while to throw the flag, which was annoying. And the offensive penalty caused a mandatory 10 second count off, so the Pats came away with zero points after having 1st-and-goal at the 9 and 2 timeouts remaining. If there was a mistake, it was Brady waiting too long to begin to scramble out of the pocket.
In Monday's game, even a grounding would have still been a likely 3 points. It was an uncharacteristic mistake for him.
In Monday's game, even a grounding would have still been a likely 3 points. It was an uncharacteristic mistake for him.
[QUOTE="lexrageorge, post: 2053511, member: 34669"]The grounding call in Seattle is definitely not something I've seen either before or since, and I could almost guarantee I see QB's throw balls over the back of the end zone on a regular basis. A couple of other points about that play that bear mentioning: there was 1 second left in the first half, so if Brady scrambled any longer to get outside the tackle box, time would have ticked off the clock anyway. IIRC, the refs took a while to throw the flag, which was annoying. And the offensive penalty caused a mandatory 10 second count off, so the Pats came away with zero points after having 1st-and-goal at the 9 and 2 timeouts remaining. If there was a mistake, it was Brady waiting too long to begin to scramble out of the pocket.
In Monday's game, even a grounding would have still been a likely 3 points. It was an uncharacteristic mistake for him.
[/QUOTE]
There was a play in the SD games this week where Rivers not under pressure threw the ball away from inside the red zone and it landed in the end zone near no one. It was not called Grounding because he was not under pressure according to the ref.
That call in the Seattle game still pisses me off as Brady was not under pressure when he threw that ball away.
In Monday's game, even a grounding would have still been a likely 3 points. It was an uncharacteristic mistake for him.
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There was a play in the SD games this week where Rivers not under pressure threw the ball away from inside the red zone and it landed in the end zone near no one. It was not called Grounding because he was not under pressure according to the ref.
That call in the Seattle game still pisses me off as Brady was not under pressure when he threw that ball away.
My recollection is he just threw it randomly, way over the endzone, not remotely near anyone.
The pick on Monday, there was a guy in the area, and all he needed to do it throw it too high/too far, and I think they would have given it to him.
Not that it mattered...grounding or the sack would have been better, obviously.
Wasnt the Seattle call when he was in His ends zone? Or near it?
No that was the SB that shall not be mentioned, right? Like the first play of the game.
Yea I was going to say that QBs can usually throw it 15 feet high through the back of the end zone (as long as its on "a line"...IE "I guess Gronk just couldnt jump that high") and not get called. I am sure a chuck into the stands would draw a flag. But yea Brady was the only one I ever saw that followed that "unwritten caveat" to the rule and got flagged.
No that was the SB that shall not be mentioned, right? Like the first play of the game.
Yea I was going to say that QBs can usually throw it 15 feet high through the back of the end zone (as long as its on "a line"...IE "I guess Gronk just couldnt jump that high") and not get called. I am sure a chuck into the stands would draw a flag. But yea Brady was the only one I ever saw that followed that "unwritten caveat" to the rule and got flagged.