The future at 3rd

[jasail]

It's been said many times before. You don't just dump WMB for a bag of balls. You give him every chance to prove he can meet the potential once seen in him...and you give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe it was a compilation of injuries and other physical issues that could have crippled his hitting. You give him all of Spring Training to show what he has, and then make a decision...unless the Sox have gone out and acquired another 3B (in lieu of pitching).
 
He get's another shot at losing the starting 3rd base job.

 
I disagree with that last statement. Considering his potential, he certainly gets another chance to win the 3B job, but under no circumstance should that be his job to lose next year. He 100% has to play his way onto the 2015 roster.   
 
Also, why is it that you think that if the Sox go out and acquire a 3B it will be in lieu of pitching? I think it's very conceivable that they do both.  

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Also, why is it that you think that if the Sox go out and acquire a 3B it will be in lieu of pitching? I think it's very conceivable that they do both.  

 
If they want to stay under the luxury tax cap, it's going to be hard to do both.  In a world where even back end of the rotation guys are $15 million a year on short term deals (and are there even any Ryan Dempsters out there?) the money just doesn't go all that far.  The late seasons signings and trades -- Cespedes, Castillo, and Clark -- already added $25 million, and I think we didn't dump any 2015 commitments (except Lackey's 500k).

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
You misunderstand .. I meant it was the same type of problem .. good prospects on the horizon (Cecchini=Vazquez) but not yet ready for the majors so a one year stop gap will be required. 

 
The problem, as the C position this year demonstrated, is that one year stop gaps who are actually good at baseball are really hard to find. Here are our three catchers this season plus Salty:
 
Ross: 184/260/368
Pierzynski: 252/285/343
Vazquez: 243/311/312
Salty: 220/320/362

 

[Al Zarilla]

"Sandoval is a fat dude..." He could be the best defensive third baseman ever, that doesn't change the fact he has serious conditioning issues. I think the likelihood of him holding up over a 5 or 6 year contract is slim.

No pun intended with the "slim", or is there? I agree with you though. His weight's been up and down too many times. How many chances do you give a guy? 

 

[mauf]

 
The problem, as the C position this year demonstrated, is that one year stop gaps who are actually good at baseball are really hard to find. Here are our three catchers this season plus Salty:
 
Ross: 184/260/368
Pierzynski: 252/285/343
Vazquez: 243/311/312
Salty: 220/320/362

 
You're looking at stopgaps that only cost money.
 
It's useless to speculate exactly who will be available, but I think it's likely that BC will trade from the club's prospect depth to find quality guys who are under control for a year or two at reasonable prices. As you'd expect, those guys tend to be better than guys who cost only money and aren't in a position to demand long-term, big-money contracts. Doug Fister is the most obvious example, but a deal could work out a lot less well than that one and still be worth doing.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
They brought Jack Clark back?!?1? When will they learn!!???
 
They have something around $60M available before they approach the luxury tax ceiling. They need a backup catcher, a closer, a 3B and two SP, with some more bullpen arms being a luxury. They can easily fit that in and there's no reason to think they wouldn't be willing to cross the barrier for a year while they have contracts coming off after 2015 (Victorino, Napoli, Mujica and possibly Clay). 
 
They can easily do both. 

 
Clark did have a pretty swing, though.
 
From the 2015 Red Sox thread, I was under the impression the amount they projected to have was closer to $55 million or so, before the Castillo signing.  Hope that's wrong.  I admit I don't follow it too closely.  Even for $60 million, two SPs and a 3B chews up an awful lot of that though.  Third base is going to be a tough spot.  It seems like there are three eight figure a year free agents out there, and then a bunch of guys who may not be that much of an improvement over Holt/WMB.  Not much in between.  Youk is available, though, I understand.

 

[Plympton91]

I think they did away with the "sign after the season starts" loophole, didn't they?

I agree with the idea the team should be looking at trades for this years crop of Ryan Hannigan, Dexter Fowler, Matt Kemp types to fill 3B. And they should be looking into Cuetto/Latos types for the rotation.

Headley, Lester, Shields/Santana, Uehara/Robertson are probably too expensive.

For the pen, I saw that the Royals might be looking to move one of Davis or Holland, given that they have a bunch of huge, cheap arms and budget constraints. Signing Hochever to be a reliever coming off TJ surgery might be a good bullpen move too. That would be a direction I'd pursue in addition to Uehara.

If they can get Latos and Davis, that might free up the money for Headley or Panda.

 

[alwyn96]

I think they did away with the "sign after the season starts" loophole, didn't they?

I agree with the idea the team should be looking at trades for this years crop of Ryan Hannigan, Dexter Fowler, Matt Kemp types to fill 3B. And they should be looking into Cuetto/Latos types for the rotation.

Headley, Lester, Shields/Santana, Uehara/Robertson are probably too expensive.

For the pen, I saw that the Royals might be looking to move one of Davis or Holland, given that they have a bunch of huge, cheap arms and budget constraints. Signing Hochever to be a reliever coming off TJ surgery might be a good bullpen move too. That would be a direction I'd pursue in addition to Uehara.

If they can get Latos and Davis, that might free up the money for Headley or Panda.

 
In terms of teams the Red Sox match up well with in trade (ie, teams that look to be on the downswing and maybe interested in prospects), I see:
NL West
San Diego (Cashner, Ross, Kennedy, Quentin)
Colorado (Tulo, Gonzalez)
Arizona (Montero, uhh...man Arizona is terrible. It stinks that Eric Chavez retired. He'd be perfect. 
 
NL Central
Cinncinnati (Latos, Cueto, Frazier)
Milwaukee (Lohse, Gallardo, Garza, Fiers, Parra)
 
NL East
Miami (the obvious)
Philadelphia (Lee, Hamels, Brown)
 
AL West
I think everyone's kinda going for it in this division. Might be the strongest division in baseball right now. 
 
AL Central
Minnesota (Plouffe....hmm, I guess that's it?)
 
AL East 
Not going to happen
 
 
So from that group, the San Diego and Milwaukee pitchers seem interesting, other than the other obvious candidates. Plouffe is the other 3B, although he stinks against RHP and just had a career year. Frazier has better splits, but is also coming off a career year. There's always the Trade Out Of Nowhere as well.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Cespedes transitioning to 3B would give Ben by far the most latitude in terms of roster construction, but his willingness/ability to do so is unknown.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Castillo has actually played third base in Cuba. The only talk of Cespedes ever playing there was him taking some grounders there the other day "in fun." Cespedes had an issue of not wanting to play CF in Oakland and seemed to not want to try RF this season with Boston. He doesn't seem like someone who likes to move around the diamond defensively. 
 
If either Cuban OF played third, Castillo would be way more likely, and the team has already said that he is an OF.
 
Either Castillo or Betts playing some third base would really fix the roster issues, but the team has made it pretty clear that they won't be doing that, despite how appealing it might look. 

 

[MakMan44]

Yeah that's pretty strange. Castillo to 3rd, and Mookie to CF would be pretty great going into next season. 

 

[judyb]

I wonder if the Cubs are interested in trading Luis Valbuena, and what they'd want in return.

 

[TomRicardo]

I wonder if the Cubs are interested in trading Luis Valbuena, and what they'd want in return.

 
What is the difference between Valbuena and Brock Holt exactly?

 

[mauf]

 
In terms of teams the Red Sox match up well with in trade (ie, teams that look to be on the downswing and maybe interested in prospects), I see:
NL West
San Diego (Cashner, Ross, Kennedy, Quentin)
Colorado (Tulo, Gonzalez)
Arizona (Montero, uhh...man Arizona is terrible. It stinks that Eric Chavez retired. He'd be perfect. 
 
NL Central
Cinncinnati (Latos, Cueto, Frazier)
Milwaukee (Lohse, Gallardo, Garza, Fiers, Parra)
 
NL East
Miami (the obvious)
Philadelphia (Lee, Hamels, Brown)
 
AL West
I think everyone's kinda going for it in this division. Might be the strongest division in baseball right now. 
 
AL Central
Minnesota (Plouffe....hmm, I guess that's it?)
 
AL East 
Not going to happen
 
 
So from that group, the San Diego and Milwaukee pitchers seem interesting, other than the other obvious candidates. Plouffe is the other 3B, although he stinks against RHP and just had a career year. Frazier has better splits, but is also coming off a career year. There's always the Trade Out Of Nowhere as well.

 
Good post.
 
Unfortunately, I don't think Cincy will be selling, and none of the other options are terribly compelling. And even the ones that are mildly interesting don't solve the hole at 3B, unless the plan is to move X there and acquire a SS.

 

[judyb]

What is the difference between Valbuena and Brock Holt exactly?

Maybe nothing, but he has a little more of a track record and he seems to do most things the Red Sox are probably looking for just a little better so far, walked more, hit for more power, and plays 3B better. The one thing he doesn't seem to do better is hit LHP, which may not be a priority considering how RHH heavy the Red Sox appear right now.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Maybe nothing, but he has a little more of a track record and he seems to do most things the Red Sox are probably looking for just a little better so far, walked more, hit for more power, and plays 3B better. The one thing he doesn't seem to do better is hit LHP, which may not be a priority considering how RHH heavy the Red Sox appear right now.

 
Valbuena is also two years older than Holt and set to make at least 4X his salary.  Not sure whatever upgrade he might be is worth the extra salary and the player/prospect cost to get him.

 

[Pilgrim]

Looks like Daniel Murphy and the Mets aren't going to extend, and they might trade him.
 
Murphy was a 3B in the minors.  Definitely a short term, decent LH bat worth considering.
 
Some home/away splits:
 
2014:  .652/.805  OPS
2013:  .679/.785

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Murphy's an interesting concept as a Cecchini placeholder. He's a fringe-average player, but a reliably fringe-average player, and he does hit RHP pretty well. He'd allow us to start Cecchini in Pawtucket, but we wouldn't be invested enough in him that there need be any hesitation to bench, release or deal him if Cecchini catches fire and earns a promotion.
 
As with Valbuena, though, it's not clear that he's superior enough to Holt to be worth giving up much for. It would have to be lottery tickets.

 

[TomRicardo]

Murphy's an interesting concept as a Cecchini placeholder. He's a fringe-average player, but a reliably fringe-average player, and he does hit RHP pretty well. He'd allow us to start Cecchini in Pawtucket, but we wouldn't be invested enough in him that there need be any hesitation to bench, release or deal him if Cecchini catches fire and earns a promotion.
 
As with Valbuena, though, it's not clear that he's superior enough to Holt to be worth giving up much for. It would have to be lottery tickets.

 
Murphy is the best solution I have seen so far.

 

[koufax37]

 
We want to keep Swihart at catcher because catchers are more valuable than third basemen.
 

 
I don't move him yet, but I don't think it is as simple as positional value.  You also need to account for defensive contributions at each position, potential replacement at each position, and improved offense and durability when stopping catching for any player who has a better bat than glove behind the plate.
 
There are a variety of reasons that Mauer, Donaldson, Napoli, Martinez, Santana, etc. made complete sense to move off of catcher, but the general trend is when the offense is better than the defense, get 150+ low wear and tear games instead of 130- worn down games.
 
Just to be clear, I am *NOT* in favor of moving Swihart any time soon or potentially at all.  But *IF* Vazquez sticks and develops as a decent hitter to go with elite defense, and Swihart progresses into an elite bat, I absolutely would want a switch in a year or two.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

 
In terms of teams the Red Sox match up well with in trade (ie, teams that look to be on the downswing and maybe interested in prospects), I see:
NL West
San Diego (Cashner, Ross, Kennedy, Quentin)
Colorado (Tulo, Gonzalez)
Arizona (Montero, uhh...man Arizona is terrible. It stinks that Eric Chavez retired. He'd be perfect. 
 
NL Central
Cinncinnati (Latos, Cueto, Frazier)
Milwaukee (Lohse, Gallardo, Garza, Fiers, Parra)
 
NL East
Miami (the obvious)
Philadelphia (Lee, Hamels, Brown)
 
AL West
I think everyone's kinda going for it in this division. Might be the strongest division in baseball right now. 
 
AL Central
Minnesota (Plouffe....hmm, I guess that's it?)
 
AL East 
Not going to happen
 
 
So from that group, the San Diego and Milwaukee pitchers seem interesting, other than the other obvious candidates. Plouffe is the other 3B, although he stinks against RHP and just had a career year. Frazier has better splits, but is also coming off a career year. There's always the Trade Out Of Nowhere as well.

 
It's discouraging that the list only includes 3 LHH

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Looks like Daniel Murphy and the Mets aren't going to extend, and they might trade him.
 
Murphy was a 3B in the minors.  Definitely a short term, decent LH bat worth considering.
 
Some home/away splits:
 
2014:  .652/.805  OPS
2013:  .679/.785

Very interesting! We've had success with these type of fringe/semi-good/still young players in the past......Mueller, Millar, Papi, Bellhorn, etc

He also played 15 games at 3rd this year.

 

[Montana Fan]

I also like the Murphy option. Good post there, Pillgrum.

I'm also not disliking the Panda idea with him playing 3rd in 2015, 1b in 2016 and rotating/DH'ing in 2017. Would the standard 3 yr, $39 million deal get it done?

 

[jscola85]

Murphy is also the kind of guy that you could acquire using some of these 4th/5th starter types we seem to have.  A guy like Workman and/or Ranaudo could look very interesting to the Mets given their stadium and the NL factor.

 

[jasail]

Don't the Mets already have a lot of guys just like that, though?

Harvey, Wheeler, Colon, Niese, Gee, deGrom...they seem pretty well stocked at SP.

 
I agree that the Mets are not going to be looking for SP. If anything they are going to be looking to trade some of that to improve themselves at SS/OF and add some power to that lineup. I don't see Murph coming with much of a price tag. Perhaps a package around a guy like Brentz or Marrerro has some appeal to them. 

 

[snowmanny]

I also like the Murphy option. Good post there, Pillgrum.

I'm also not disliking the Panda idea with him playing 3rd in 2015, 1b in 2016 and rotating/DH'ing in 2017. Would the standard 3 yr, $39 million deal get it done?

He was supposedly looking for Pence's 5/90 extension over the winter and I doubt the price has dropped.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

He was supposedly looking for Pence's 5/90 extension over the winter and I doubt the price has dropped.

 
I don't think he's going to get that, but I don't think he'll need to settle for 3/39 either. We got Victorino for that because he was a 32-year-old coming off a terrible season. Sandoval is a 28-year-old coming off a pretty good season. If he doesn't get at least four years and $50-something million, he should fire his agent.

 

[alwyn96]

I didn't see much of Jemile Weeks in the field this year, but I gather he doesn't really have the arm strength for 3B?
 
He's been able to get on base pretty well in the minors (career AAA - 286/389/391), is a switch hitter who hits RHP better than LHP, doesn't cost anything, is already on the 40-man, and has an option remaining. He's not gonna set the world on fire, but if he can field the position (and I really have no idea if he can...he probably can't), he might be able to put up an OBP-heavy 100 OPS+ that's a little less dependent on high BABIP than Holt. 

 

[mauf]

 
I don't think he's going to get that, but I don't think he'll need to settle for 3/39 either. We got Victorino for that because he was a 32-year-old coming off a terrible season. Sandoval is a 28-year-old coming off a pretty good season. If he doesn't get at least four years and $50-something million, he should fire his agent.

A 739 OPS in that home park in the current offensive environment is nothing to sneeze at, but I don't think teams are going to be lining up to give him that kind of money.

Then again, I didn't think Jhonny Peralta would get $54mm either, so what the hell do I know?

 

[jscola85]

 
It would be the third year in a row they go with this strategy, and it has been a massive failure the last two years.  Fangraphs has us dead last in production out of 3B this year at -1.8 WAR.  

 
The gaping hole at 3B is one of the biggest reasons I think this team can turn it around quickly.  One of the easiest ways to improve a team is to go from awful to average.  Adding a 2-3 win player at 3B (ie, Headley, Panda, Hanley) would on its own likely improve the roster by 5 wins.  CF is another position where we could improve by massive leaps and bounds.  26th in overall production there this year.  Just getting to league average thanks to Rusney/Victorino playing every day in CF would likely add 2-3 wins as well.

 

[jscola85]

I didn't see much of Jemile Weeks in the field this year, but I gather he doesn't really have the arm strength for 3B?
 
He's been able to get on base pretty well in the minors (career AAA - 286/389/391), is a switch hitter who hits RHP better than LHP, doesn't cost anything, is already on the 40-man, and has an option remaining. He's not gonna set the world on fire, but if he can field the position (and I really have no idea if he can...he probably can't), he might be able to put up an OBP-heavy 100 OPS+ that's a little less dependent on high BABIP than Holt. 

 
Weeks definitely impressed me in the short time span.  He has a top-prospect pedigree.  Baltimore has had a lot of success with some of these post-hype prospects like Chris Davis and Stephen Pearce.  I'm not saying just hand him a job, but a guy like Weeks makes me much more willing to trade Holt away if a team is willing to buy high on him.

 

[Plympton91]

In addition to Coyle, one player who isn't getting much mention as a potential future option at 3B is Carlos Asuaje. He's a 10th round pick who had a great season between low-A and high-A this season (927 OPS with almost no drop off after the promotion) splitting time among several positions including at lot of 3B. Obviusly, he's not an option for 2015, or maybe 2016, but in thinking about a 5-year plan for 3B involving a 1 to 3 year stopgap free agent signing, you could have some appropriately discounted probability of him being in the picture 2 or 3 or 4 years out play a role in that decision. Lowrie for 2 years might be better than Panda for 5, for instance.

 

[jscola85]

Nobody likes Asuaje as much as I do.  Kid did nothing but rake this year.

 

[alwyn96]

He's got over 1000 major league PA's, and an OPS <700. I'd be fine with either him or Holt as the team's utility infielder (probably Holt, as he seems a lot more versatile defensively), but the team has got to do better at starting 3B (Weeks has never even played third at the big league level).

 
He basically had a good partial season and a bad partial season in a notorious pitcher's park. Steamer projects him to a 98 OPS+, which is a hell of a lot better than what the Red Sox got from 3B this year, and he's played some SS before, so it's possible he could make the transition to 3B. Betts never played CF before, either. 
 
I agree that the Red Sox should try to do better though, and I would be pretty surprised if Weeks wound up the opening day starter, but I think Weeks could wind up getting on base better than a lot of teams' 3B. Not being able to field the position could certainly be an issue, though .
 
Between Weeks, Hassan, Holt, Brentz, and Marrero, I think the Red Sox currently have some pretty sweet Plan C/D type depth, which as we have seen, comes into play more often than you'd think. I think the first 4 could be ok starters on a non-contending team, and wouldn't tank a contending one if they were pressed into service. We can get caught up in the debates between who's elite and who's just good, but the distinction between who's merely below average and who totally sucks can sometimes be nearly as important a distinction. 

 

[MakMan44]

PS: Another potential black hole for the Sox is third base. MLB traderumors does seasonal summaries http://www.mlbtrader...fseason-outlook for each team once the regular season is over and they did the Twins and mentioned that, "Plouffe strikes me as an under-the-radar trade target for teams in need of help at the hot corner." Fodder for thought.

 
Cross posting-credit to seantoo
 
My problem with Plouffe is that he's just put up the best season of his career. He's going to cost more to acquire because of that, and you don't know how likely he is to repeat that kind of season. It's an interesting name to toss into the ring, but not one I'd want to overpay for.  

 

[jscola85]

 
Cross posting-credit to seantoo
 
My problem with Plouffe is that he's just put up the best season of his career. He's going to cost more to acquire because of that, and you don't know how likely he is to repeat that kind of season. It's an interesting name to toss into the ring, but not one I'd want to overpay for.  

 
Nothing looks really fluky about Plouffe's season at the plate.  He just did small things better than last year - he cut down on his K's by 3%, improved his BB rate by 3%, and added a bit of additional power.  His season wasn't BABIP induced and didn't rely on an abnormally high HR/FB rate; in fact, his HR rate was 3% lower than his career average.
 
One area that stands out was his defense went from subpar to above average.  The three prior years were all pretty bad per UZR and DRS, but it turned positive this year.  Did not watch nearly enough Twins games to determine if he improved or it was just a fluke, but I would almost certainly not pay up for his defensive improvement.  I can certainly buy the offensive improvement.
 
If Minnesota understands what he is - a good hitter and a subpar fielder (ie, a 2-2.5 win player), he'd be a nice addition.  All that said, he's another righty and has a massive platoon split over his career (126 wRC+ vs lefties, 89 vs. righties).  There would seem to be better options for the Sox at least.

 

[MakMan44]

Thanks for breaking that down. Agree with everything you say.

 

[seantoo]

I can't say that I really think the Sox will or should prioritize 3B given their need for frontline starting pitching, but if they do I hope they go for this guy:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?redir
 
Its amazing that he is just 30 years old - the upside of what Ramierez has to offer if healthy is signifigant enough to take a chance on.  Barring that, I'd rather see the Sox just roll with what they have for another year, maybe adding a sleeper type to the pot if they are ready to give up on Middlebrooks (I am). 

More importantly it gives the Sox a chance to have an all farmhand infield.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

More importantly it gives the Sox a chance to have an all farmhand infield.

 
I suppose it's true that Napoli did play minor league ball *somewhere* before hitting the field in Anaheim. In all seriousness, though, the only real advantage of having all former Sox farmhand players would be keeping costs down, which means having all recent farmhand players filling those spots. Pedroia is on a great value contract, but isn't exactly cheap and Hanley will be flat out expensive no matter what. I guess it's neat for the fans, but the earliest this could happen is 2016 and only if they fill first base with an in house option like Nava, Shaw or Travis. I'm guessing it's more likely they extend Napoli or Craig ends up there, though.
 
I love Hanley's bat, but his glove at short makes Xander look like a gold glover and I'm not sure that he's all that willing to move to third. I've really come around on the idea of Headley on a 3 year deal, or 3 with a vesting option for 4. It would mean needing to deal with the Craig/Castillo/Betts/Cespedes/JBJ/Nava crunch, but I guess that falls into the "good problem to have" end of the spectrum.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

I found this http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/49972/third-baseman-pablo-sandoval-is-giants-most-valuable-defender to be an interesting read re: Panda's defense.

 

[jscola85]

How about Pedro Alvarez as a potential acquisition candidate?  He had a bad year but his peripherals suggest that may just be bad luck.  His BB rate improved 2.3% and K rate declined 4.9%, but his HR/FB rate plummeted from ~25% the prior two years down to 16% in 2014.  With his raw power, that 25% HR rate seems more in line with reality than 16%.  He made $4M this year and will almost certainly get a raise in arbitration, then will be a FA after the 2016 season.  The Pirates have Josh Harrison at 3rd and Ike Davis is a lot cheaper than Alvarez to play 1B.
 
Seems like they could be a good trading partner as well - Liriano is a FA and Jeff Locke turned into a pumpkin post-ASB, while Vance Worley may be another smoke and mirrors guy.  Would seem that they'd be interested in some of the AAA arms we have, even with Taillon in the wings.

 

[MakMan44]

Alvarez apparently can't play 3rd, and I don't think he's good enough to displace Napoli.  

 

[jscola85]

Alvarez's defensive problems this year mainly came down to an erratic arm.  It may just be between the ears for him, like Salty throwing back to the pitcher or Knoblauch throwing at 2nd base.  He's not ideal but he also wouldn't cost much and brings some needed lefthanded power.

 

[seantoo]

Murphy's an interesting concept as a Cecchini placeholder. He's a fringe-average player, but a reliably fringe-average player, and he does hit RHP pretty well. He'd allow us to start Cecchini in Pawtucket, but we wouldn't be invested enough in him that there need be any hesitation to bench, release or deal him if Cecchini catches fire and earns a promotion.
 
As with Valbuena, though, it's not clear that he's superior enough to Holt to be worth giving up much for. It would have to be lottery tickets.

He's better than you give him credit for by OPS+ the past four years he's 126, 103, 108, 111. He's had between 166 and 188 hits the past three years so he's fairly durable too. I have no idea about his glove/arm at third however he is a good hitter, about 10% better than league average, at at 29 YO he should continue to be so for a few more years.

 

[Drek717]

How about Pedro Alvarez as a potential acquisition candidate?  He had a bad year but his peripherals suggest that may just be bad luck.  His BB rate improved 2.3% and K rate declined 4.9%, but his HR/FB rate plummeted from ~25% the prior two years down to 16% in 2014.  With his raw power, that 25% HR rate seems more in line with reality than 16%.  He made $4M this year and will almost certainly get a raise in arbitration, then will be a FA after the 2016 season.  The Pirates have Josh Harrison at 3rd and Ike Davis is a lot cheaper than Alvarez to play 1B.
 
Seems like they could be a good trading partner as well - Liriano is a FA and Jeff Locke turned into a pumpkin post-ASB, while Vance Worley may be another smoke and mirrors guy.  Would seem that they'd be interested in some of the AAA arms we have, even with Taillon in the wings.

Alvarez also has a pretty significant split, absolutely horrible (mid-.500's OPS) against LHP.  If the Sox can clear enough OFs off the roster to make it work on the 25 man roster an Alvarez/WMB platoon could be worth a shot if the Panda/Headley markets are too rich after fixing the rotation.

 

[MakMan44]

Alvarez's defensive problems this year mainly came down to an erratic arm.  It may just be between the ears for him, like Salty throwing back to the pitcher or Knoblauch throwing at 2nd base.  He's not ideal but he also wouldn't cost much and brings some needed lefthanded power.

Yeah I guess a platoon wouldn't be the worst idea in the world if his yips can be cured. I have trouble seeing Nava, Alvarez, Middlebrooks, and Craig all on the same roster though.

 

[kazuneko]

Alvarez also has a pretty significant split, absolutely horrible (mid-.500's OPS) against LHP.  If the Sox can clear enough OFs off the roster to make it work on the 25 man roster an Alvarez/WMB platoon could be worth a shot if the Panda/Headley markets are too rich after fixing the rotation.

Can't see WMB being counted on for anything next season- even a platoon role. I mean, this season he was somehow even worse against LHP (.454 OPS) than he was against RHP (.544).    

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Can't see WMB being counted on for anything next season- even a platoon role. I mean, this season he was somehow even worse against LHP (.454 OPS) than he was against RHP (.544).    

 
I'm not as completely bearish on WMB as you, but I can't see spending two 25-man slots on guys who play 3B and basically nothing else.

 

[ehaz]

I wonder if Ryan Zimmerman could be available with Rendon manning third. With that contract (looks like 5/83 remaining + an option) there's bound to be some compromise with money going back to the Sox and/or someone like Craig/Victorino going to the Nats.  Even in his bad 2014, he's kept up a 117 OPS+.  

 

[Lowrielicious]

I wonder if Ryan Zimmerman could be available with Rendon manning third. With that contract (looks like 5/83 remaining + an option) there's bound to be some compromise with money going back to the Sox and/or someone like Craig/Victorino going to the Nats.  Even in his bad 2014, he's kept up a 117 OPS+.  

He's not playing 3B because he has been a mess there defensively. That and the injuries.