I couldn't be happier that he's the guy who changed his mind. What would the alternate universe look like had he not?
The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
- Start date
PKSD is a thing.
There’s no need to make lovegtm’s case for him. He’s doing fine on his own.
So the Warriors pick projects to be in the Bronny James range. Which opens up the possibility of Lebron joining the team a year from now. Doubt this has anything to do with any moves this offseason, but fun to dream on Lebron and his son coming off the bench for the defending champs.
I'm pro-Marcus but also pro-Marcus/KP trade.
Among reporters analyzing this trade, the biggest reasons not to like it:
Among reporters analyzing this trade, the biggest reasons not to like it:
- Porzingis' health
- Porzingis not having a track record as a winning player
- Porzingis is a very high usage guy joining a team with 2 others - will he lose some value as a third option
- Doubts about whether he can play with Rob
- The Celtics, a mediocre passing team, just traded its best passer for someone who is merely an adequate passer and created a hole at PG (this was Zach Lowe)
- Loss of Smart's impact on defense and his leadership
- I think something needed to change on this team, after two disappointing playoff exits in 2 years, the second one more disspointing than the first. I think running it back one more time was just too great a risk to take. Once they decided that the coach was staying, and
(to all appearances) Jaylen was staying, they needed to make some other impact move. Smart didn't necessarily need to go, but the Celtics needed to do more than try a third time with the same basic look. - Two of the Celtics three top ballhandlers - Smart and Brown - have poor handles and turn the ball over a lot, especially under playoff pressure. Sure, we're shipping out our best passer, but we are also shipping out a guy who, as PGs go, is well below average at taking care of the ball. Maybe either he or Brown had to go.
- Offensively, Smart is best with the ball in his hands. But the Celtics have never committed to him as primary ballhandler - it has always been a mix of him and Tatum and Brown and White and Brogdon. And his off-ball offensive value is lower.
- Porzingis might be a better complement to Tatum, Brown, and White than Smart was, because he can do things and create mismatches that other Celtics could not.
- I think White is the player Brad wants as his PG, and White was a bit buried in the Brogdon/Smart/White arrangement. White plays with pace, moreso than any other Celtic ballhandler, and is quick to recognize and exploit mismatches and openings. There will be more of those with Porzingis on the roster. If part of the Celtics plan is to redefene themselves as a defense first team, they need to explait transition chances whenever possible.
- While Zach Lowe is skeptical about Porzingis/Rob lineups, Brad most definitely isn't. They cannot do "switch everything" with Porzingis, But if they have Porzingis at the 5 and Rob on the worst shooter/helping, points in the paint should be difficult to get against them.
- There's also some uncertainty around the current bigs due to Horford's age and Rob's health.
Carlos Boozer literally lied to the face of his blind owner convincing him not to pick up his option so he could remain a Cavalier.
What is different about Jaylen? His contract will be one of the worst in the league before the ink is dry. Obv i get why Wyc would sign off on it but those megadeals to the non-elite of the elite rarely work out well....have they ever or have they ever been given to a teams #2 guy?
Yes, I used to be in the "supermax is fine, because they can trade him" camp, but I'm starting to think that it might significantly reduce his value in a trade.
Jaylen with 1-year left and a verbal commitment to re-sign a normal max might well have more trade value than Jaylen with 5 years at the supermax.
And yes, I'm factoring in the small chance he joins the small group of guys who have reneged on such a commitment. Teams trade good value for guys with those commitments all the time. The key is that there needs to be something of a bidding war, which there would be in Jaylen's case.
Rob Williams is a much better passer than MS. Better instincts and better vision. Marcus would make two nice passes in a row and try to go into Magic Johnson mode with often deleterious results.
Yeah.. Smart was very far from the Celts best passer…he was their primary point guard and got assists because of it.. but as you said he loved making the flashiest pass rather than the simple one.
Rob Williams has excellent passing skills, but rarely had the ball in his hands other than to finish. Rob had Assist/TO/Usage percentages of 8.5/15.3/11.8. Marcus' line from last year was 26/18/18. That's 3 times the assist rate with a similar TO rate and a much higher usage.
I think the concern that we were a bad passing team is warranted. If Marcus wasn't the best passer I'd like to know who was.
Brad & Co are so adept at trades/deals I'd rather have them NOT operate as an "over the 2nd apron team". I'd take the perception of a slightly less player (ie Mikal Bridges) with a team-friendly contract over a Super Maxed Brown to keep them under the 2nd apron.
I do expect them to kick the can down the road by maxing JB, & getting another season out of the "JAYs". After the next TV deal is signed Owners/GM/NBA talking heads are going to be giddy. Trading an All-NBA player like Brown at $60MM/yr shouldn't be so scary then.
OTOH, I can see the risk of keeping Brown for another season. He will probably never be higher than 2nd Team All-NBA. If Brad can create a bidding war amongst several NBA teams (NBA execs realize the TV windfall is on its way) this summer, then it could happen. Besides the new CBA, the Porzingis addition (& his subsequent extension on July 6th) has changed the Brown "Super-MAX" dynamics.
Brad's ability to deal Smart at the drop of a hat, shows just how opportunistic, cold-blooded, & shrewd he can be. Nothing would shock me if he thinks he can make the Celtics slightly better.
Rob is a good passing big, but that aspect of his game has stagnated since Ime's arrival and there is no good reason to think he can run an offense.
He is their best natural passer, imo, but he'll likely never be used in a manner that leverages that skill to its fullest. It'd be nice if there was a way to unlock the potential though. A bit apples to oranges comparing a big to a guard, I suppose.
Klay, which captures the entirety of the issue nicely. A poor value even in the best circumstances but a good ROI given the opportunity cost of not signing it.
Yeah, that's the thing. Jaylen is not worth the deal in the abstract---and offering it to him is still better than the Celtics alternative, imo. Getting the right chemistry between your top players is critical and hard. I wouldn't say Jays are perfect together, but they are in the upper quarter of star pairing outcomes.
As to Jaylen being a bad contract---I mean, he'll be a better player and younger and on a better deal then Beal, who still returned value in a trade. So while it may or may not be true he's worth more today than after an extension I wouldn't let trade value prevent me from extending him. Also, though I don't think it's going to happen, adding KP creates a more realistic way to move off Jaylen than they had before too. So, while I share some of the concerns about Jaylen's value and a bit of them around fit...it's still pretty clear the right move is to resign him and figure it out later, imo
He wasn't asked to be last year but Brogdon is likely the best passer on the team. He played the Marcus role in IND and produced better assist rates and significantly better turnover rates.
I'm partial to Derrick White and his ability to move the ball quickly. Derrick doesn't throw highlight reel passes, but he protects it better while being a threat to shoot. I'm not sure if 19.4/10.1/17.7 AST/TOV/USG% does it for you.
BUT I expect White at PG with KP rather than Smart at PG will create a more efficient offense
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Yeah I agree with all of this. Brown next offseason will be a much more valuable trade piece next offseason than Beal was this season just due to the position he plays and the fact he actually contributes something on the defensive end. Plus, assuming Brown doesn't demand to be traded, the Celtics will have leverage the Wizards didn't, which is to just say "eh you know what we don't like the offers we're getting we're going to keep Jaylen for another year."
All that said, I'd understand if Cs ownership wanted to avoid the second apron and tried to shop Jaylen this offseason - it's not a crazy strategy by any means. But there are no indications (yet, anyway) that they have any intention of doing that.
Jaylen is a couple years younger Beal/Dame when they signed their super max deals, and he's been more durable (and is likely to age better due to his size, at least through his prime).
The biggest difference between Brown and some other super max deals is the team's situation. Washington maxed Beal for what, a ceiling of a 1st round playoff exit? Lillard signed his deal coming off the best playoff performance for Portland since 2000, but they've yet to win a conference finals game with Lillard on the roster. Whatever these teams are overpaying for, it's not to have a realistic title shot. Boston is close enough to a title that it's worth overpaying to keep your #2 (because his ideal replacement either doesn't exist or is impossible to get). This is what you do when you're close.
I see that point but I definitely disagree with the durability angle. Lillard missed a total of 37 games over the first 9 years of his career. I'd have Beal and Jaylen fairly equal in this area at the same age but agreed that Beal is certainly the most overpaid of the group.
Is Jaylen likely to age better (from a health standpoint) than Lillard, at the time the latter signed his deal? Even when smaller guards manage to keep up their level of play into their 30s, they still seem to break down more frequently (Lillard, Curry). It might be the same for wings like Jaylen, I have to dig more into that.
Even in neutral situations, there's no way Jaylen can turn out as badly as Beal (absent a catastrophic injury). He's in the same group as Towns, a guy who should make all-star teams when healthy and the occasional all-NBA team, has some playoff issues and ultimately isn't more than a really good #2. Towns' contract is ridiculous and looks terrible, in part because the Gobert deal just crippled Minnesota (both the money and assets, good lord), but if Ant becomes a 1st team all-NBA level player and KAT becomes a major part of a title contender, people won't be complaining about his (KAT's) contract. That's the situation that Boston and Brown are in, right now.
Even in neutral situations, there's no way Jaylen can turn out as badly as Beal (absent a catastrophic injury). He's in the same group as Towns, a guy who should make all-star teams when healthy and the occasional all-NBA team, has some playoff issues and ultimately isn't more than a really good #2. Towns' contract is ridiculous and looks terrible, in part because the Gobert deal just crippled Minnesota (both the money and assets, good lord), but if Ant becomes a 1st team all-NBA level player and KAT becomes a major part of a title contender, people won't be complaining about his (KAT's) contract. That's the situation that Boston and Brown are in, right now.
I wouldn’t hate a Brown deal that brought Bridges, Whitehead, and a couple of picks.
Curious how folks are thinking about the intersection of three things:
1. Grant (likely S&T, but I guess you never know)
2. The MLE
3. PP and his desire for more PT
To me, these intersect with the answer to Brogdon's health to give a sense of their priorities across trade and MLE
What are MLE targets----I'd guess they want a wing who can defend and (secondarily) hit threes, as Smart and likely Grant will be gone. Always hard to know where market will fall on guys, possible candidates for that include Keita Bates-Diop; Troy Brown; Terrence Ross (not so much on the D); Jae Crowder (don't really think he's leaving MIL, but can imagine some warmth for Brad?); Josh Richardson; Yuta Watanabe (emphasis on the 3 of 3&D); Will Barton; Nickeil Alexander-Walker (seems likely to seek more PT and $); Dario Saric (more a big than wing, and likely to have more of a market, but hard to say given defensive questions....kind of a plug and play Gallo replacement in impact if not completely in style) Maybe Trey Lyles, who is more of a 4, and skews offense, but might fit.
If Grant Goes (as I expect) you'd like to add a defensive wing (ideally) or a defensive-oriented big to balance out Kornet a bit.
If you keep PP, you are out of the guard market and looking for wings or a big. If you deal PP, though, a bigger defensive PG or a more pure distributor is on yourlist.
What's this net out to? My baseless speculation/guess:
- They hold PP and promise him a bigger role post-Smart
- They do a Grant sign-and-trade, targeting picks as the real value in a deal. Though, I do wonder if there's an Atlanta deal for one of their wings (which would free up MLE to chase something else)
- They sign one of the above 3&D wings to the MLE day one. If I had to guess, Troy Brown or Watanabe with Richardson on the radar.
1. Grant (likely S&T, but I guess you never know)
2. The MLE
3. PP and his desire for more PT
To me, these intersect with the answer to Brogdon's health to give a sense of their priorities across trade and MLE
What are MLE targets----I'd guess they want a wing who can defend and (secondarily) hit threes, as Smart and likely Grant will be gone. Always hard to know where market will fall on guys, possible candidates for that include Keita Bates-Diop; Troy Brown; Terrence Ross (not so much on the D); Jae Crowder (don't really think he's leaving MIL, but can imagine some warmth for Brad?); Josh Richardson; Yuta Watanabe (emphasis on the 3 of 3&D); Will Barton; Nickeil Alexander-Walker (seems likely to seek more PT and $); Dario Saric (more a big than wing, and likely to have more of a market, but hard to say given defensive questions....kind of a plug and play Gallo replacement in impact if not completely in style) Maybe Trey Lyles, who is more of a 4, and skews offense, but might fit.
If Grant Goes (as I expect) you'd like to add a defensive wing (ideally) or a defensive-oriented big to balance out Kornet a bit.
If you keep PP, you are out of the guard market and looking for wings or a big. If you deal PP, though, a bigger defensive PG or a more pure distributor is on yourlist.
What's this net out to? My baseless speculation/guess:
- They hold PP and promise him a bigger role post-Smart
- They do a Grant sign-and-trade, targeting picks as the real value in a deal. Though, I do wonder if there's an Atlanta deal for one of their wings (which would free up MLE to chase something else)
- They sign one of the above 3&D wings to the MLE day one. If I had to guess, Troy Brown or Watanabe with Richardson on the radar.
FWIW, I think that we talk about PP way too much already around here. He has a couple of NBA skills (ok distance shooter and great handle). He has huge deficiencies in size, footspeed, and athleticism. And he really doesn't pass the ball well at all. If Brad is spending a lot of brainpower wondering about how to get him more minutes or how to move him somewhere where he might get minutes, I'd be pretty surprised. He's a nice guy to have around for depth ballhandling and sniping for games where Brogdon/Hauser are out, and maybe he slides up the depth chart to "plays more games than not" if Brogdon is traded.
I'd love to see them hold onto Grant if his market tanks. Otherwise if there is a deal for a useful wing to be made for Grant S&T or the MLE, that would be fantastic. If Grant leaves, it wouldn't be the worse thing to replace him with a wing, big, or even a tweener.
I mentioned it in the other thread, but I'd do a S&T of Grant to bring in a PG, preferably Monte Morris.
Then I'd move PP for a similar 2nd draft type Big or wing who is less likely to have problems with a fringe rotation role.
Any S&T would take them over the 2nd apron so no MLE. Then I'd grab a defensive minded wing at the minimum.. Javonte Green?,
Pretty much this on Grant. I don't want him if he costs any more than TL.
At the moment PP is their 4th ball handler, & a defensive liability. BUT he's cheap & comes with RFA if he plays well next season. I can't imagine Brad is too worried about PG, unless Brogdon has surgery. There is always the DC firesale to pluck spare parts if need be.
The one thing we can be confident about is whatever fake trades, contracts, or extensions we conjure up around here, Brad will top them. He's been on an impressive run as President.
Brad... 17
Cellar... 0
After finding out that Brad had deals lined up to move Brogdon and Smart, I now imagine that Brad has been worried about PG. I wonder how he feels about playing Brogdon or Pritchard as the smallest player in the lineup when White isn’t on the court.
Pritchard isn't really in line for more minutes, though? More 2 BIGZ lineups are definitely happening assuming reasonable health. Brown will probably play the 2 primarily, so White/Brogdan/Brown will eat up the vast majority of minutes available. PP would be looking at 15 a game at most on average.
Oy, he traded Smart (& almost Brogdon) because it was a position of strength. Didn't you listen to his presser?
People will get hurt, so moving up 1 spot in the depth chart at guard means more minutes. Plus Horford, TL and KP will all get more rest days than the guards likely.
I agree with your last statement, with an emphasis on the added value KP will bring as a passer. Our players better be ready to move without the ball for backdoor cuts; KP will find them.
I think Morris would be a great fit but why would the Wizards do this? They’re in tear-down mode so presumably they’d want an expiring contract as opposed to someone on a new contract, unless Brad were to staple a first-round pick to Grant which would be an overpay I’d think.
Also, Grant would have to want to go to the Wizards and in a scenario where the Cs tell him “hey we’re not going to re-sign you, go out and find the team you want to sign with and we’ll work out a deal” I suspect he’s find someone other than the Wizards.
With the addition of Poole/Jones, DC is holding a PG firesale, either Delon Wright ($8.2MM) or Monte Morris ($9.8M) would be an upgrade over PP. Both value the ball.
Wright's defense & size would make him attractive
Morris is the better 3pt shooter/offensive player
It's been suggested above that a Grant S&T + Champagnie would be enough salary to get either
A Grant S&T with any NBA team would net the salary to make a Delon or Monte deal work. So they aren't limited in dealing with the Wizards only.
The Wizards added Jordan Poole & Tyus Jones. They will own the ball in that offense.
Filler & a crappy late 2nd would easily net either Delon or Monte, is my guess, after watching their recent work.
Love the Javonte Green idea!
He’s a defensive wing and he would be great for the vibes. He has enough skill offensively that he can play a bit.
Oh yeah to be clear it's 3 way deals. Grant goes wherever will pay him the most, the Celtics get Morris, 2nds and filler as needed.
So as an example, let's say Grant's best offer is Indiana... the Celtics send a pretty crappy 2nd with him to IND, they send Champagnie and a good 2nd, maybe 2 to WAS, WAS sends Morris to Boston. Best case is someone over the cap with a TPE to take him, since then you don't have to pay them at all.
Yeah, my only concern is I think he'll get offers above the minimum.
Javonte Green is a really good idea, & something we kicked around in-season. Brad has a $5MM MLE to work with, right?
He's been a decent Corner3 shooter (40%) over his career & where the Celtics would plant him as the 4th or 5th offensive option.
$5MM should be enough to sign him
There isn't really a path to use the MLE unless Grant walks for nothing. But yeah he'd be an option there if Grant leaves for free.
I'm curious about Alec Burks. He has some size, plays reasonable defense, can shoot the three... maybe he's tired of playing for dogshit teams and he'd do a one year on the tax MLE? It would be a nice addition to our guard/wing rotation and doesn't feel like too much of a dream.
ATL could come in play with their brand-new TPE. They could bring Brogdon home, send back 2nds + ~10MM in bottom roster filler players (that would be an HR for the Hawks)
Then Boston could easily add Monte or Delon, Kyle Anderson, Javonte Green with space, filler & 2nds
Good idea also, Alec Burks is another "Friend/family of Tatum", that would help & could be added with the Brogdon space
The Cellar is cooking...
Did Detroit decline its option on Bucks for $10 million? The last thing I read from out of Detroit is they were exercising the option. He’s a very close Friend of JT.
I think there is a near zero chance Brad trades Brogodon for not much. Smart or Brogdon was going out, both makes little sense, Monte or Delon are awesome for this team's 3rd ballhandler, they're both downgrades from Brogdon as the #2, and a backcourt of White/Monte/Pritchard is a huge downgrade from White/Brogdon/Smart.
I honestly don't think Brogdon moves at all, since the role they would most need if they traded him would be..... Brogdon?
I mean, just based on that trade.... we downgrade 6th man to improve wings who'll play maybe 10 minutes in the playoffs?
Trading Grant to get depth makes a lot of sense, he's a bench player for us and is going to make starter money over multiple years, he's likely gone. Trading Brogdon for depth does not, he's a key contributor now, and his skillset is what we most need.
Burks option deadline is (according to this - https://clutchpoints.com/nba-free-agency-2023-10-best-shooting-guards-ranked) June 29 so I don't believe that DET has done anything yet. From what I am seeing, DET is expected to pick it up although they have a crowded back court.
Absolutely. And from what Brad said publicly about wanting to now keep Brogdon, expecting him to be healthy, expecting him to have a great year for the Celtics, it wouldn't be a great look.
Brad's agenda was seemingly to trade Smart or Brogdon to get an upgrade at forward, but not both. Once the Brogdon trade failed, he had Memphis on speed dial from an offer they had previously made. It has been suggested by some that Brad still would have made the Smart trade if the Brogdon trade had gone through, which makes zero sense. It makes equally little sense to trade Brogdon now.
Pritchard is the one I'm curious about. I think Brad will look for an upgrade, but he likely stays.
I don't think they trade Brogdon for nothing either. BUT there is an avenue to adding several players by using Brogdon's contract if need be. Basically, Brad's hands aren't tied if people are still hyperventilating about Brogdon's defense (which isn't nearly as important when coming off the bench versus opposing 2nd stringers)
Brad was trading from positional (PG) strength "Smart or Brogdon", to add to a position of weakness (frontcourt). If Brad wants to play longer (as he said in the presser) then he probably is still looking for a cheap 4/5 to back up KP/Al/TL
If they want to improve on PP (or Payton still wants OUT) then the Grant S&T is an option to land one the Wizard PGs. BUT expect PP to stay & play a bigger role with more minutes than last season.
The trade I'd really like to see Brad do with ATL is to go get Okongwu for Brogdon+, but really doubt ATL is moving Double O. OR use Brogdon+++ to get WCJ.
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In case you ever feel bad about not understanding some of the subtle nuances of the cap remember... NBCS literally pays this moron who wrote (and they promoted) and entire article where he doesn't understand the difference between trades and signing in free agency
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1673732815693791248
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1673732815693791248