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The Brad Stevens thread - More Clueless Than Alicia Silverstone

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by DeJesus Built My Hotrod, Nov 6, 2017.

  1. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This is interesting:

     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    So, I had a number of drinks tonight, but this quote is backwards right?

     
  3. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Well, in the first half tonight, he wasn't. Yabu? Monroe? Ugh.
     
  4. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    I hope so.
     
  5. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Trying to make Love play defense to get TT off of Horford.
     
  6. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Pretty much trying anything to erase a 25-7 deficit or whatever it was. Can't really blame Brad for changing things up when his starters were in a haze or as my old coach used to call it, "the glare."
     
  7. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    What?
     
  8. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    So there's a thread on Reddit about KAT vs Thibs and that the Wolves should (duh) keep KAT if they have to choose.

    The thread is full of people saying that Stevens is the only coach they would keep over the team best player.
    I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.

    Rather than everyone choose their own adventure.
    Whould you keep Stevens over
    A) Kyrie
    B) horford
    C) Hayward
    D) Brown
    E) Tatum

    I would absolutely (personally) keep young controlled talent over the coach, but Kyrie is possible, Horford maybe (age), Hayward probably not but maybe (injury)

    I thought it might be an interesting discussion. Because it's really a team where any one player hasn't seemed to make a huge difference and the coach has been given a great deal of (deserved) credit.
     
  9. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The ironic thing about that hypothetical is that a lot of Brad's value comes from the fact that you don't have to choose between him and star players. No salary cap for coaches is a very real thing; it's just that most coaches don't move the needle enough for it to matter.

    For the hypothetical itself, I think that Danny would keep Brad over everyone on that list except maybe Tatum. 10+ years of a possible MVP-level player is tough to turn down.

    Thibs over KAT would be laughable.
     
  10. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Yeah, I'd go with "everyone but Tatum" too right now, but damn you for making me think about that.

    Next time, on LondonSox's Funhouse Mirror, it's "which third-world dictator would you prefer rule over you in a post-apocalyptic hellscape?", followed by "if you had to trade Mookie to the Yankees for a bag of balls, or let them cut off a finger of your dominant hand, which fingers would you consider?"
     
  11. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    Pinkie obviously.
     
  12. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    This is impossible to answer without knowing who the new coach would be, right? Or what player would be taking the place of the departed player?

    If the option is something Steve Kerr + Jaylen Tatum, or Brad Stevens + Jeff Green, I will sadly say goodbye to Stevens.
     
  13. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    If the Sixers had to give up Embiid or Simmons for Stevens which would you choose?
     
  14. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Neither. I would choose a different coach.

    I I hypothetically had to give up one (ie which do I prefer) I guess Simmons.

    I don't think there's enough data to know how much impact a coach has, and I believe it's not that hard to get an ok coach
    Great is hard, but great over good is worth what? I am highly dubious it's worth more than a good young player.
     
  15. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    This is totally fair.. I’m interested as well.. to me there are def coaches throughout sports that clearly make a tangible difference in how their team plays and how they develop teamwork or young talent.. but even with that it’s all on the players and their talent to execute.

    It’s prob more relevant in college where there are definitely teams that are coached due to talent issues or disparities.. like Princeton as an example.

    Edit: is their a WAR stat in basketball? Because it seems to me if you used that stat or similar you could use that to see how a certain coach got a higher end result than was expected. I’m guessing a lot of Pops teams won more games than they were expected to.
     
    #365 lars10, May 24, 2018
    Last edited: May 24, 2018
  16. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Curious if you would choose Stevens or Covington. :)
     
  17. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Covington is not good enough to stop me having the coach I want.
    But that is first team all defense Robert Covington btw
     
  18. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    More like First Team Only Defense, amirite?
     
  19. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I mean he shot 37% from 3 for the season on 7 a game.
     
  20. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I agree with this. The downgrade or lateral move from Covington to his replacement is a fair price to pay for the upgrade or lateral move to the coach you want. This values a role player and a coach similarly which has always been my position. However to consider Embiid or Simmons for a coach is about as outrageous a question as I've ever heard.
     
  21. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    To be fair HRB that's in response to me asking if Stevens > various players based on the Reddit thread about it. Where nearly everyone was in agreement that Boston was on the only place the coach was more valuable than their best player.

    I'd disagree, but it's not my team so I thought I ask people who weren't Reddit sheep
     
  22. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    It's certainly close either way. I've been sympathetic to people saying "let's pump the brakes on this, maybe see a ring first before we go crownin' him", so I've tried to be cautious in my enthusiasm. That said, the last sports-team manager I was this impressed by even before he won a title was Terry Francona, who was getting rave reviews even on SoSH, a scant few months into his tenure - and our collective instincts proved pretty correct* about him. So if we're seeing these kind of signals with Stevens, maybe we're right to make statements that would sound crazy about most other coaches.

    * You can argue that getting to Game 7 against the Cubs with the Indians roster he had might have been more impressive than reversing the curse with his murderer's row of a 2004 roster.
     
  23. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'm still new to this "new NBA" and I love this subforum for what I've been able to absorb when I picked up the Celtics again last off-season and it's been an amazing ride, one I've been able to appreciate all the more for being able to check in here to find out wtf is going on at times.

    So, here's what I don't get: This coach v. player value thing.

    It's a really interesting discussion in the NBA that's different from other areas... but I don't get it. Like, bracketing the fact that the coach doesn't count against the cap so should be considered as a "multiplier" and not a straight up value added thing (although maybe that should be part of player evaluation too--do they make others around them better? If so, does it matter what kind of player it is in terms of value added? etc.)...

    But if Stevens isn't "worth" a significant number of "wins", then how fucking good would this team be with Kyrie and Heywould? Like, I understand the logic, but the numbers suggest to me that Stevens has to be adding significant wins, because the it seems like the null hypothesis is that a healthy Celtics teams would be an 83 win team.


    Addendum: Writing this made me consider a new thought--what if a coach doesn't multiply or add wins, but whacks around at the error bars on team variance? Like, maybe Stevens doesn't add wins, but softens the losses of players or resets the floor on the variance bars?

    Dunno... I'm just trying to figure out how the logic of coaches in the players league meshes with what the Celtics are doing. Looking for some kind of M-theory to combine the too conflicting theories that each make sense on their own but not together.
     
  24. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  25. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I was responding to London because I knew he was a Sixers fan and he’d asked what celts player Brad was worth so I figured I’d ask him about his team
     
  26. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I think coaches impact is incredibly hard to actually value.
    I would say Rev is right, the fact that coaches are outside the cap means there's little excuse for losing one who is good.

    The NFL seems more extreme, harder cap, more importance of play calling. Of all people New England area people should appreciate this.

    But BB was bad by most measures before the Patriots. Well not bad, but nothing special. It's really over time we see the clarity.

    Stevens is also hard, I mean are the players just good so actually Ainge is the bigger deal?
    Or are they who we think they and Stevens is amazing.

    I mean the Celtics have only won one road game all playoffs. What they are doing is great, obviously, but how much is the garden a factor?

    There's a Twitter guy who is coach in training and a smart analytics guy and he scouted coaches and Stevens was up there. But really it's been almost intangibles that have impressed. The system, the culture and the strong mental aspect of dealing with injuries.
    I have little idea how to value that.

    How much praise is ainge vs Stevens? Or development coaches? How much is browns improvement due to Stevens?
    There's so much it's hard to know

    For the sixers, brown held together the rebuild, built a culture in some of the hardest environments imaginable, and has progressed when given a chance. But how good is he at coaching? I don't know. I think he's earned the time to see.

    I think Stevens probably deserves the benefit of the doubt, but <shrug> who knows.
    I'd never value him over any good player.
     
  27. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Great post. And this is exactly the line of thinking I'm trying to engage, but you laid it out better.

    Like, if it's not Stevens, then what is it? The Garden is also an intriguing suggestion... but at some point, theoretically all wins can be accounted for. And this team... it doesn't scan according to what I'm presented with as conventional understanding.

    Although I've also been wondering why home court is so valuable in the NBA. And this team culture is strong, which could have relationships to that.

    Basketball is mad fascinating right now. And, well...

    I love this team.
     
  28. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Well also, re: NFL v. NBA, the marginal impact of any one player in the latter is tremendously higher than the former.

    So even if the coach had the same absolute impact on winning percentage in both leagues (and the variance between the potential options at coach were the same (VORC?)) the NFL coach would be much more likely to be more important than a player than their NBA counterpart.
     
  29. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I dunno, I don't think it's revisionist history to say that in 1994 and 1995, people who knew what was up in Cleveland saw that their coach was making a lot of progress, and that the whole was more than the sum of the parts. Belichick's 1990 gameplan that beat the Bills is in the HOF; he was probably one of the most famous coordinators in the game at that point, and of course was hired away. And as soon as Parcells got him back, he (again, famously) tried underhanded tricks to keep him in-house, rather than let him go run his own ship again. So yeah, it took him his first few years to find his feet as a HC (and setting Bernie Kosar on fire probably took a lot out of his political capital), but it's not like in 2001, after 25 years in the league, he suddenly had a eureka moment. I think the comparison to Stevens - who showed promise immediately, but didn't show results for a few years - is fairly apt, despite the differences in their sports.
     
    #379 InstaFace, May 25, 2018
    Last edited: May 25, 2018
  30. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Seems to me that Stevens is def worth a few extra wins given that he’s taken two Celts teams with completely different and potentially undermined rosters to the ECF.. and almost NBA Finals... and has the team playing some of the best defense in the league. I think Boston is a year early for getting this far with this roster so he def. deserves some of the credit. I guess how much credit is where his value lies.
     
  31. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It depends on what you mean by "any good player" but I am in the camp that, if you are trying to win over a sustained period, you absolutely would value an elite coach (and again I know there are those who don't consider Stevens an elite coach yet or perhaps they never will) over "any good player".

    Would you really take peak Russell Westbrook on your team over, say, Popovich? I know some would and it also depends on what the rest of your roster looks like but I would lean toward no. What about someone like Karl Anthony Towns? Again, its dependent on how the rest of your team looks but I would have to think long and hard about it.

    I know HRB and others think that's crazy but as we have seen in these playoffs, while talent is absolutely the dominant predictor of success, aside from the truly elite players (say top five or so players), coaching and adjustments are what win series.

    And to be clear, while I think that the narrative that the Celtics beat more talented teams this post-season is off (mostly because it undervalues guys like Tatum, Brown, Rozier and even Average Al Horford), its hard to argue that the Celtics would be at this point with any average NBA coach.
     
  32. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    This is a good point too.

    I think the head coach in football does probably underestimate the value of the rest of the coaches too.

    And I think that matters here too. Rozier, brown and we'll tatum vs college have all improved. How much is the shooting coach worth?

    I note the sixers are looking to hire more shooting gurus (they have a feeeeeew guys who could use it).

    I'd love to figure out a coach's stat but I think that's going to be impossible, maybe an off court impact thing?
    How consistent are players outperforming with team A vs B
    Home court advantage
    Improving shooting for your team vs average
    Etx
     
  33. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Well I think that's the thing it's very hard to separate these things.
    How much is him, how much is it the staff underneath, how much is ainge, how much is it the fans. How much is luck?
    If it's all Stevens why the home away split?

    I think it's very hard to say.
    And I'd obviously take KAT over pop. Westbrook sure and that's despite my dislike for him.
     
  34. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    As y'all know, I'm not a basketball guy but an educator. I remember that when Brown's friend killed himself, I instinctively thought, "Well, Brad's the guy I'd want to be his coach in that situation." It's instinctive for me when I hear about such a thing--who's on point with that person, who do they have? because it happens so often in education and you're told by a student and you have to figure out what to do, what to say. So that's what I mean when I was thinking, man, well, he's in a good situation to deal. It was automatic. Because I think Brad is that guy.

    And I also think that's part of whatever deal Ainge landed at his house with when he flew over there on the X-men jet to give him a godfather deal: Brad gets to run some of this his way. They even announced that "no tanking, ever" was part of the deal--which is to say, there was a deal.

    Now, does what Brad brings to veterans what he brings to a kid suffering grief like Jaylen? I have no idea. But Brown's development has been off the charts. Tatum's has left the table. I'm pretty sure Marcus Smart is a mutant. Rozier might disappear into the ether of energy. But then, there's Horford, who I think is Superman in glasses. So how much of this is Danny?

    But then... Brad is part of Danny's plan too.

    I really don't know. Where I'm at is, I understand all the theories of how you win in the league (I think), but it seems like they clearly leave some amount of Celtics wins unaccounted for. As such, the existing theory is insufficient... so... WTF??? This team is cool as shit, so I want to know what's going on!
     
  35. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I think one of the confounding factors London cited swamps all the others. With Popovich and Belichick, you know that you're getting elite roster construction, contract negotiation and cap management at the same time as you're getting elite in-game tactics, season-long strategy, player development, and other coaching aspects. With Stevens, so much of the franchise has been Ainge (PP/KG, Billy King), or Stevens + Ainge acting in concert (IT4, drafts of Brown and Tatum), that it's really hard to unscramble that egg. We'll never know how crucial Stevens' input was in Ainge's ultimate decisions there, despite knowing plenty about his role in other key events (e.g. the free-agent sales pitches to Horford and Hayward, where Ainge is pretty much just there to sign the contract and shake hands).

    And even upstream from there, both Ainge and Belichick, and Popovich, and several others, have incredibly patient ownership who have wisely rode out storms and taken the long view. Not that it's an unqualified good as an attribute (I mean, Mike Scioscia must have some russian-pee-tape level blackmail material), but used in the right situations, that patience insulates the GM and coach for being able to invest in the long term. To not over-react to short-term fan demands or quirky results or prospects not developing as fast as you'd hoped. Belichick under Art Modell ended in fiery disaster so epic that they made a 30-for-30 about it. As soon as David Griffin started making progress, a paranoid Dan Gilbert canned him. Examples of short-term-ism ruining otherwise quality coaching or GM'ing are legion.

    So you really have to evaluate it in context. Would your team draft Stevens ahead of an all-star? Well, you'd have to first ask yourself:
    - How good is this ownership, would they give him an appropriate amount of both rope and control?
    - How good is the GM, will he listen and defer? Can he make magic happen? Does he really get what Stevens wants at a deep level?
    - Where is our roster and financial situation in the lifecycle? Are we positioned to make best use of his talents in the next year or two? Can we even afford to spend on the roster to the point where the difference he makes might result in something special happening?

    Every fanbase, even thinking rationally, would probably answer those questions differently. So there's no one answer that takes into account context. Stevens in Memphis or Sacramento would be pearls before swine. Stevens in Houston might be a bad fit for the current strategic vision. Stevens in Philadelphia, or, say, Minnesota, would terrify me, to say nothing of Lakerville. San Antonio might trip over themselves to offer him team equity if they could, just to secure a successor and keep the party going, but you'd have GM questions the minute Pop fully steps aside. So if you add in that context, there are certainly some situations where he's worth his weight in gold, and others where you'd rather just try to get the talent and roll the dice.
     
  36. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You, Rev and Denz all raise good points. That said, even if the Celtics lose tonight, the road record thing is just complete bullshit. I know you are referring to the playoffs the but just so we establish some context, the Celtics had the third best away record in the league this regular season. Last year Boston was tied for fourth best road record during the regular season. The year before that they were tied for eighth best.

    Now with regards to the playoffs, are people really dinging a guy who has - aside from Al Horford and some emerging players this season who are still in their very early 20s - had no real star players to feature in games on the road? Recall that last in last season's playoffs, after IT4 finally peaked, the Celtics had to contend with the death of his sister as well as his hip injury - an injury that eventually shut him down. Furthermore, its been pretty well documented here and elsewhere that for all of his amazing offense, Thomas was a massive liability on defense.

    IMHO, we shouldn't be dinging Stevens teams for not winning games on the road. We should be marveling at the fact that he won any playoff games with guys like Evan Turner, Jonas Jerebko, Tyler Zeller and even Jared Sullinger getting some playoff run. Now if he can't win on the road when the Celtics are at full strength with Irving and Hayward, there is absolutely a conversation to be had.
     
  37. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Well, to say nothing of if he wins the whole. fucking. thing. :)
     
  38. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    One thought.. given the salary cap in the nba.. that young, cost-controlled talent is ultra valuable.. if you could trade veterans for coaches it may make more sense.. if there were no salary cap considerations for bringing in a max player, for instance. The years of available growth for a young star are probably more valuable than a star at the end of a career.. of course their needs to be a balance.

    Also.. not sure who it was talking about Stevens.. but they say he tracks offensive tendencies (probably defensive too) so that when he puts a player in he can put him in position where he’s most comfortable and has been proven to score over time. I think the example was Larkin scored a lot more going to his right and on the right side of the court so Brad would run plays specifically for those tendencies. Maybe every coach does that, but it was interesting to think about... and especially thinking of how you then make that happen for all five players at the same time and then tracking certain players together, etc.
     
  39. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah.. the whole road playoff thing is overblown.. especially since they haven’t lost at home. Not a lot of teams win on the road in the playoffs.. especially when your two young stars get zero calls.. or not nearly as many as an established star.

    One other thought.. one criteria for a good coach is how good players fair when they leave.. so far solid players in Boston have gone on to fail in other cities.. for various reasons
     
  40. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It is still weird that this team goes on the road and immediately starts taking whole halves and quarters off.

    It is inexcusable that they completely bailed on the second quarter tonight. Yes Cleveland did some things but they didn’t make the Celtics decide that the only good shot was a contested 3 early in the clock.
     
  41. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    It's not just the Celtics that go on the road and disappear. The Cavs are 0-3 on the road this series. Home Court is huge in the NBA, more so than any other sport and given how young the Celtics are, probably more so for them.
     
  42. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I'd be fine with the disappearing if they were just missing shots, or Cleveland was playing with incredible energy on D.

    But in Game 6, the Celtics came out with a clear plan on offense, executed it, and then stopped. No timeout was called until they were down 10, and it took them until late in the 3rd quarter to start going back to what had worked. It was really, really bizarre.
     
  43. The Social Chair

    The Social Chair Member SoSH Member

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  44. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    So we can thank Brad for bringing (keeping) someone else to Boston?
     
  45. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  46. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    Here is the ESPN article (Jackie MacMullen) that the Yahoo article is referencing. Probably best to read it directly: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...-mental-health-nba-african-american-community

    That was a great read and really let's you see another side of some of the players. ESPN is doing a great job tackling this mental health topic, I really hope they can keep it up.
     
  47. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Yes, sorry---I grabbed the article to read later, not realizing it was a short blurb based on a longer one. Thanks.
     
  48. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The day will come when we will weep, for their are no more teams to conquer.

    I love this piece so fucking much.

    This organization so has its shit together.

    I jumped on the bandwagon because I got that inkling last summer, needed something to follow like this, and wanted to see if they could really be all that...

    They've been so much more. I mean, IT is still loyal to them, and I've never seen anything like that in a droid before. I remember thinking, "Jaylen's in good hands," when I heard about his best friend, and that was a neat thing to be able to feel about the team--think of all the athletes who are emotionally and psychically worse off than they'd be in another profession, and then think about how Brad and Danny are taking care of these guys.

    It's not a model for other NBA franchises... I mean, it is, but for elite organizations--part of which can and perhaps should be to develop elite people--and they should take notice.
     
  49. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    This stuff about Shane Larkin....wow

    He needed a "daily number". Once it came from seeing on ESPN that Ray Allen had hit 8 threes the night before. His number for the day was 8.

     
  50. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Shane Larkin is Barry Larkin's son?!

    /thing I learned recently
     

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