The Angels: the perils of trading prospects

[FanSinceBoggs]

A interesting article on some of the mistakes the Angels made:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9384659/los-angeles-angels-woes-point-perils-trading-prospects?src=mobile
 
The article didn't mention the valuable draft picks the Angels lost for signing Pujols and Hamilton.
 
Also, it is worth noting that the guy who opposed the Haren trade (Eddie Bane) is now working for the Red Sox!

 

[JimD]

And yet there is probably a large contingent of Sox fans this morning who would be happy to see Ben trade multiple top prospects for Jonathan Papelbon.

 

[HillysLastWalk]

Nah.  I don't think people want to give up top prospects at all.  That's an exaggeration.

 

[Plympton91]

I'd like to see the Red Sox use their prospects for their highest value. There was a time where many SOSHers were planning to jettison David Ortiz to make room for Lars Annderson to be the DH. At that time the Red Sox could have traded Anderson for a very good major leaguer. Three years after the peak of that hype, he has now been DFAed by 3 teams.

Trading prospects can be a mistake, sure; so can holding on to them.

 

[nvalvo]

Or, closer to the Angels theme: Brandon Wood. 
 
There's no hard and fast rule. It all comes down to player evaluation. 

 

[CaptainLaddie]

I'd like to see the Red Sox use their prospects for their highest value. There was a time where many SOSHers were planning to jettison David Ortiz to make room for Lars Annderson to be the DH. At that time the Red Sox could have traded Anderson for a very good major leaguer. Three years after the peak of that hype, he has now been DFAed by 3 teams.

Trading prospects can be a mistake, sure; so can holding on to them.

Wait, wait, wait... MANY SoSHers?  MANY?  I mean, is this like saying five people equals many?  Because I'd love to see this definition of many, because even when Ortiz had his bad few months in 2009, he still ended up putting together a league average season (102 OPS+) while Lars Anderson put up a .673 OPS in AA.  So I'm trying to figure out where Ortiz had an awful stretch that was worth getting rid of him, while Lars put up monster numbers worthy of considering the first point.  Certainly not 2007, 08, or 10, though.
 
But yeah, holding onto them can be a mistake.  As nvalvo said, Brandon Wood is pretty much the biggest case for a prospect who had put up massive minor league numbers where the parent team got zero from them.

 

[alwyn96]

Or, closer to the Angels theme: Brandon Wood. 
 
There's no hard and fast rule. It all comes down to player evaluation. 

 
Hell, Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Dallas McPherson, Joe Torres. The Angels always seemed like they were loaded, and half the guys never really panned out. 
 
Once upon a time the Rangers had like the top 3 catching prospects in baseball in Salty, Teagarden, and Max Ramirez, and wound up not getting much of anything from them or for them. 

 

[dynomite]

Obviously it's all about evaluation at a certain point.  In the modern era, though, it seems that many MLB teams have developed consistent winners by:
 
- drafting and developing starting pitching internally
- refraining from giving big contracts to players in their 30s
 
Easier said than done, and it's hardly a golden rule, but the Angels (and Blue Jays and Yankees and Dodgers... and the Red Sox before them) took the exact opposite approach, and it didn't work.
 
Look at the Angels the last few years:
- Signed Pujols to 10-year, $254 million deal (for his age 31-40 seasons)
- Signed CJ Wilson to 5-year, $77 million deal (for his age 31-35 seasons)
- Signed Hamilton to 5-year, $125 million deal (for his age 32-36 seasons)
 
And this doesn't even include the trades mentioned in the article in which the Angels gave up highly regarded prospects for Haren, Greinke, Hanson, Kazmir, and others.
 
EDIT: Forgot to talk about their rotation. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that, through half of the 2013 season, the Angels have only gotten 10 starts from players who came up through their system (Jered Weaver and Michael Roth).
 
Compare that to 43 for the Red Sox (from Lester, Doubront, and Buchholz) or something like 60 for the Rangers.

 

[LondonSox]

You missed the trade for Vernon Wells and his full contract. I mean wtf

If these guys continue to fail on these epic contracts they have no shot to compete, they need to sign trout too IMO because if they wait a few years trout might really want out of that hell, because in a few years pujols and Hamilton might be horrible.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I looked over this article again in light of the Freese-Bourjos trade.  This organization has really gone to crap.  They sold low on Bourjos and weakened their farm system by trading away Grichuk.
 
Meanwhile, the Royals will get a compensation pick for Ervin Santana while the Mariners will get a compensation pick for Kendrys Morales.  What else can the Angels do wrong?

 

[skunk]

Weaver and Trout are the exceptions that proves the rule?

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

You missed the trade for Vernon Wells and his full contract. I mean wtf

If these guys continue to fail on these epic contracts they have no shot to compete, they need to sign trout too IMO because if they wait a few years trout might really want out of that hell, because in a few years pujols and Hamilton might be horrible.

They might already be horrible as they both were pretty bad last year

 

[mt8thsw9th]

 
Hell, Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Dallas McPherson, Joe Torres. The Angels always seemed like they were loaded, and half the guys never really panned out. 

 
I don't want to muck up the board with another thread, but it's absolutely amazing how hard these players failed. Part of it is the folly of having a team in the California league (sup, Lars Anderson--to an extent), but what brought me here was looking up Mike Napoli's (much more incredible than I realized) numbers.
 
Napoli was always a good hitting prospect for a catcher, but was never recognized by Baseball America given he wasn't never a good defender, and he was always stuck behind the younger phenom Jeff Mathias. Napoli ended up leapfrogging Mathis given that he actually could hit Major League pitching in the chances he got. To give some perspective, by 2004 the Angels had kept Napoli at A+ so Mathis could catch at AA. By 2005, Mathis was in AAA where he put up a .278/.342/.502 line while Napoli chugged along at AA at .237/.372/.508, a year older than Mathis. Napoli ended up sticking with the club in 2006, and as best as the Angels tried to replace Bengie/Jose Molina, only Napoli produced.
 
Mathis, always young for his league, put up a very good line of .277/.340/.446 in the minors, with enough of a glove to still allow him to be playing today. However, after 1871 plate appearances, he's managed a putrid 53 OPS+
 
Former #12 prospect Dallas McPherson: .932 OPS in the minors, 92 OPS+ in the majors (better than I thought)
 
Brandon Wood, former #3 prospect (behind Delmon "Ugh" Young and Justin Upton), .276/.340/.505 line in the minors (including .321/.381/.667 over 614 PAs between AA and AA at age 20): 40 OPS+ over 770 plate appearances
 
There are busts, and there are completely horrific busts like Mathis and Wood.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

It wasn't just the Cal League. That era of Angels hitting prospects (Sean Rodriguez is another one who flopped hilariously given his minor league numbers) was the perfect storm of park and league factors before those were popularly understood. They played in:
 
A+: California League: Rancho Cucamonga-->A neutral to slightly hitting friendly (its varied over the years) park in the most hitting friendly league in the minors.
AA: Texas League: Arkansas-->The old Arkansas park was one of the most extreme pro-hitter (particularly pro-HR) parks in the minors, in a league that is overall quite hitting friendly.
AAA: Pacific Coast League: Salt Lake-->Again, a very hitting friendly park in the second most hitting friendly league in the minors.
 
If minor league evaluators at the time had properly accounted for park and league factors, those guys are unlikely to have been as highly rated as they were. Everything about their playing environment was conducive to offense, and to HRs. Then they hit the MLB, and a park that is not offense friendly...and they collapsed.

 

[MakMan44]

Man, I just checked Brandon Wood's BBR page. He's putting a .314 OPS in 90 PA with the Sugar Land Skeeters.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Man, I just checked Brandon Wood's BBR page. He's putting a .314 OPS in 90 PA with the Sugar Land Skeeters.

 
Cousin Brandon Arroyo has a better OPS.