The Allen Bomb

TheoShmeo

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A Ben Volin tweet today:

PFF says Dwayne Allen is the only TE in the league to run more than 20 routes this year and not have a catch. He has run 60 routes
Here's what we know about Dwayne Allen:

- He doesn't play all that much.

- When he does play, he does not catch passes. Seven games is still a smallish sample but it's big enough to not be the blip that we saw with Cooks in the first few games, for example.

- Brady and he failed to connect a few times when it appeared that the throw was slightly off and that Allen could have adjusted to make the catch. This happened on the very first play from scrimmage this year, oddly enough.

- It appears as if Brady is reluctant to look in Allen's direction or Josh is reluctant to call plays for the same.

- If Allen is blocking well, it is not getting a lot of attention and is instead operating below the radar.

- the player he backs up, Gronk, tends to miss time most every season, sometimes in big chunks.

- the player behind him, Holllister, appears to be a pass catching TE and has had limited reps. Again, the sample is small but that's how it looks thus far.

The sum total of this seems worrisome to me. I fully appreciate that the Pats cannot have redundancy at every position. Salary cap. And that having a guy like Martellus Bennett behind Gronk last year was extraordinary.

On the flip side, a frequent debate is between the relative value of Gronk and Edelman. Fans and media types seem to be divided on the question. My view is that Gronk is more valuable in the context of this team precisely because Edelman has several very competent guys who also play WR. None of them are a "Mini Julian" but between Cooks, Hogan and Amendola, a lot of what Julian gives them can be replicated or at least covered. The players behind Gronk are obviously quite different.

So what is Bill thinking? Is it that he believes that if Gronk goes out, that the Real Dwayne Allen will emerge? Next Man Up? Johnson Bademosi Redux? Or maybe he thinks that between the receivers and backs, and possibly Hollister, that they will have enough?

That's all plausible but it still seems to be a bit odd to me. This offense is built around the TE position being key. The Pats won without Gronk being that TE last year but, while he dropped off somewhat in the second half, Bennett was pretty damned effective.

Make no mistake, I well appreciate that BB is who he is. I am not suggesting that he's lost his mind here. At the same time, I am surprised that he has seemingly left the team so exposed in the event of a Gronk injury and has not tried to adjust. Maybe the trade deadline will net a TE. But unless and until that happens, thoughts on this topic are welcomed.
 

tims4wins

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Clearly he is not the guy they thought he was when they made the trade. I think there is very little chance he is on the roster in 2018.
 

Shelterdog

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They tried to get an ok number two tight end for the year and it hasn't worked out. Hard to tell how much is physical and how much is his reported problems with the playbook. But it's hard to get a tight end who can materially contribute; there are only 16 in the league who average 40 yards receiving a game.

If Gronk goes out for a while we're kind of screwed and I assume the team will try and get by without meaningful production from the TE spot.
 

Super Nomario

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The A.J. Derby trade is not looking great right now. He's not a world-beater but I'd rather have him than Allen or Hollister (or, for that matter, Matt Lengel, who they ended up picking up last year).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Mitchell seemed to give them a different looking dimension even with Marty in the game after Gronk went out last season. Not that Mitchell was running TE routes, but he seemed to be a good size target for Brady on seem routes and the to the outside picking up some slack.

The last bit of information we got was pessimistic about Mitchell. So I'm not sure it even matters, but he could theoretically pick up some of the slack if he's back.

Edit: It seems I should have said "seam" not "seem".
 
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Shelterdog

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The A.J. Derby trade is not looking great right now. He's not a world-beater but I'd rather have him than Allen or Hollister (or, for that matter, Matt Lengel, who they ended up picking up last year).
I feel sort of the same way about cutting Austin Carr. We've all seen so many players come in and out who don't get the offense at all that I hate to give up on a young receiver/te who does appear to be able to understand the offensive system fairly quickly even if they are offensively limited.
 

Stitch01

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I dont really get the confusion about what BB was thinking. First off and obviously no one can replace Gronk if he goes down. They have to switch up the offense. Gronk is more valuable than Edleman: JE is a very good player, Gronk is maybe the best tight end of all time. But the Pats tried to do what Theo suggested to give themselves some protection by acquiring Allen, a starting caliber tight end to back up Gronk. They look to have swung and missed on the player evaluation, and that's fair game for criticism, but Allen has the 8th highest cap number on the team. He's the 17th highest paid tight end in football. They can move on from him after the season for nothing, so that's at least some good news.

The Pats also went into preseason with enough depth at RB and WR to reasonably think that they could move the focus of the offense away from the tight end if Gronk got hurt. They also have Hollister as a developmental guy and have signed Will Tye to provide another layer of depth. Its disappointing that Allen's not working out and its going to make a Gronk injury more painful, but the thought process seems sound. Not sure what else they could have done to shore up the position Maybe take a tight end with one of their higher draft picks to upgrade Hollister? Maybe make a trade now, but doubt they are gonna get someone with as much pedigree as Allen had coming into the season and Miguel has estimated the Pats have about $2-$3MM of cap room and otherwise would have to start pulling some levers.

Just seems like a pretty straightforward thought process, but Dwayne Allen hasn't being able to do what the team expected/thought they could do.

The A.J. Derby trade is not looking great right now. He's not a world-beater but I'd rather have him than Allen or Hollister (or, for that matter, Matt Lengel, who they ended up picking up last year).
Id guess Derby is better than Hollister, but I dont have a high degree of confidence that Im right.
 

TheoShmeo

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I dont really get the confusion about what BB was thinking. First off and obviously no one can replace Gronk if he goes down. They have to switch up the offense. Gronk is more valuable than Edleman: JE is a very good player, Gronk is maybe the best tight end of all time. But the Pats tried to do what Theo suggested to give themselves some protection by acquiring Allen, a starting caliber tight end to back up Gronk. They look to have swung and missed on the player evaluation, and that's fair game for criticism, but Allen has the 8th highest cap number on the team. He's the 17th highest paid tight end in football. They can move on from him after the season for nothing, so that's at least some good news.

The Pats also went into preseason with enough depth at RB and WR to reasonably think that they could move the focus of the offense away from the tight end if Gronk got hurt. They also have Hollister as a developmental guy and have signed Will Tye to provide another layer of depth. Its disappointing that Allen's not working out and its going to make a Gronk injury more painful, but the thought process seems sound. Not sure what else they could have done to shore up the position Maybe take a tight end with one of their higher draft picks to upgrade Hollister? Maybe make a trade now, but doubt they are gonna get someone with as much pedigree as Allen had coming into the season and Miguel has estimated the Pats have about $2-$3MM of cap room and otherwise would have to start pulling some levers.

Just seems like a pretty straightforward thought process, but Dwayne Allen hasn't being able to do what the team expected/thought they could do.



Id guess Derby is better than Hollister, but I dont have a high degree of confidence that Im right.
I agree that the pre-season thought process was sound. While there were early training camp signs that Allen was not getting it and was prone to drops, he was a reasonably productive last year. What I mean is that I am surprised that BB has not made a move to shore this up by now. Maybe this thread would be better posted AFTER the trade deadline if no move is made. But my focus is on the lack of an adjustment after seeing that Allen is very possibly a bust on this team.
 

Super Nomario

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I agree that the pre-season thought process was sound. While there were early training camp signs that Allen was not getting it and was prone to drops, he was a reasonably productive last year. What I mean is that I am surprised that BB has not made a move to shore this up by now. Maybe this thread would be better posted AFTER the trade deadline if no move is made. But my focus is on the lack of an adjustment after seeing that Allen is very possibly a bust on this team.
What do you want him to do at this point? It's not like teams are falling all over themselves to give away TE, and as far as giving up trade chips I think they have bigger fish to fry than TE depth.
 

Stitch01

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I agree that the pre-season thought process was sound. While there were early training camp signs that Allen was not getting it and was prone to drops, he was a reasonably productive last year. What I mean is that I am surprised that BB has not made a move to shore this up by now. Maybe this thread would be better posted AFTER the trade deadline if no move is made. But my focus is on the lack of an adjustment after seeing that Allen is very possibly a bust on this team.
They signed Will Tye to the practice squad. That's not exactly an impact move, but I dont really know there's much to be done in season. Do you have some names in mind? I tried to comb through with a WAG list of who might be available (no idea if these guys are good or good fits) but it seems like pretty slim pickings of guys who might be available. Eric Ebron was the first name that came to mind as he's out of favor in Detroit, but Im not sure he's very good. Gates might have been a possibility if he was willing to ring chase and SD fell out of it as Henry is winning that TE job but at (hopefully) 3-5 not sure they punt the season. Maybe Philly parts with one of the Celek/Burton combo? Seems like a long shot though. Derrick Carrier is kind of buried in LA. Any hot backup TE prospects people are fired up about?
 

The Big Red Kahuna

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I agree that the pre-season thought process was sound. While there were early training camp signs that Allen was not getting it and was prone to drops, he was a reasonably productive last year. What I mean is that I am surprised that BB has not made a move to shore this up by now. Maybe this thread would be better posted AFTER the trade deadline if no move is made. But my focus is on the lack of an adjustment after seeing that Allen is very possibly a bust on this team.
You don't think the Tye signing had anything to do with what they've seen from Allen thus far? Other than middle/low tier moves, not sure you're going to see anything from a practicable standpoint.
 

5dice

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This offense is built around the TE position being key.
Is this even true anymore? I know this has been an assumption in the past based on personnel at various times. This year seems to have different strategy everywhere. Healthy Gronk offers all kinds of options in both passing and running scenarios, but I'd hesitate to say this offense is "built around" anything besides the QB at this point and morphs a lot game to game and series to series.
 

tims4wins

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Bennett's presence last year was very lucky. The guy is a top 10 TE in football and we were fortunate to have him for one year. While on the surface Bennett and Allen make similar money, I think the Pats were hesitant in giving a signing bonus to the 30 year old Bennett. Instead they got the 27 year old Allen, with whom they could cut ties immediately with no cap hit. They didn't want to be stuck with Bennett's cap hit for a couple years. Now, hindsight being 20-20, that move looks questionable. But it kind of made sense on the surface. Plus, you never know about motivation with a guy like Bennett. Sometimes even BB swings and misses on this sort of thing.

But the only reason Bennett was so crucial is because Gronk went down. All things equal, I'd rather have Gronk on the field than Edelman. They were able to win a title because they had Bennett in reserve last year, whereas in 2012 and 2013 they had nothing behind Gronk. They have better WR depth this year - when healthy - to sustain a loss of Edelman than they did in terms of TE depth in 2012-2013 when they lost Gronk.
 

Stitch01

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He wasnt having one with Rodgers at the helm either. They've really tried to get him going in the passing game and he hasnt been effective. High drop rate, low yards per route, not grading out great as a blocker.
 

tims4wins

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I wonder if Hooman might be available from NO? He is not exactly tearing things up, but he knows the system.

I have no idea of the cap ramifications, on either end, for a straight up TE-for-TE trade, but maybe?
Fun Hooman fact: he caught twice as many passes in the 2014 playoffs (6) as the 2014 regular season (3).

Interesting idea though.
 

Stitch01

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He's got 40 snaps a game the last few weeks from the Saints. Actually leading the team in TE snaps. So possible, but he's playing real role on their team, not sure he's on the block
 

joe dokes

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He wasnt having one with Rodgers at the helm either. They've really tried to get him going in the passing game and he hasnt been effective. High drop rate, low yards per route, not grading out great as a blocker.
It seemed obvious to me that last year was going to be his last as an effective full-time (or nearly close to it) player. He was hurt most of the year and managed to play through it. Every time he made a tough play, it looked like a struggle to keep going. The next step for a guy with his mileage and over 30 is usually diminishing effectiveness.
 

Super Nomario

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If the problem is that Allen is contributing nothing as a pass catcher, trading for a guy who contributed nothing as a pass catcher seems an odd solution. Gronk got hurt basically all of 2013 and Hoomanawanui finished with 12 catches. He had 25 catches in 45 games with the Pats.
 

nattysez

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This thread seems to be ignoring Allen's abilities as a blocker. At the time of his acquisition, my impression was that he was a risk as a pass-catcher, but a guy who could ably fill in for Gronk as a blocker in the event of injury. Is there any indication he's not ably filling the blocker role?
 

tims4wins

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One thing we do know: despite the health situation of the receivers, the Pats are playing far more 2 WR / 1 RB / 1 TE / 1 FB and 3 WR / 1 RB / 1 TE sets than they are playing 2 TE sets, which was a staple of their offense when they had two capable TEs. Early on Allen was getting a lot of snaps, but not in the last few weeks. Not a positive data point either.
 

Seels

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You know while we're talking about Dwayne. Ryan hasn't been good either. I thought he should have been cut coming in to this year.

Can't imagine either guy makes the roster next year.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I agree there's not much mystery in what the Pats were thinking but the big mystery is why they seem to have swung and missed so badly.

I still just don't get it. We have a few quotes from August where he was talking about how hard it is to adjust to the Patriots' system, and Belichick had some quotes about Allen working hard, and about needing to learn different ways to play the position. But this isn't some rookie or project. This is a guy who can play football in the NFL. He's been good for two catches per start pretty consistently, he's had some red zone success, and he has made 84 first downs on 126 catches in his career.

I guess the answer must just be the Occam's razor answer. Brady has at least 5 and maybe more like 7 guys who are better at catching the balls and running routes. Maybe that doesn't mean that Allen is bad, just that at the present time he's not necessary.
 

nothumb

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Is this even true anymore? I know this has been an assumption in the past based on personnel at various times. This year seems to have different strategy everywhere. Healthy Gronk offers all kinds of options in both passing and running scenarios, but I'd hesitate to say this offense is "built around" anything besides the QB at this point and morphs a lot game to game and series to series.
I think it's still true. They can obviously execute with 4 or 5 WR, but with Gronk on the field they can run or pass effectively and test defenses in so many different ways. Against good defenses this makes a huge difference.
 

Stitch01

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This thread seems to be ignoring Allen's abilities as a blocker. At the time of his acquisition, my impression was that he was a risk as a pass-catcher, but a guy who could ably fill in for Gronk as a blocker in the event of injury. Is there any indication he's not ably filling the blocker role?
FWIW Bedard skewered him for one play this week where he seemed to blow up a run play by screwing up a blocking assignment (basically blocked the wrong guy and shoved him into the intended hole to boot). In Bedard's opinion, the film shows Allen as bad at blocking overall this season.
 

tims4wins

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Apparently Marty Bennett said he is going to retire after this year. So even if Allenis a total bust, seems like the Pats moved on with good reason