My jaw dropped after I was reminded of the work @nvalvo did last year beginning the 2022 rotation thread; I offer no such wealth of thoughtful research here. It did seem like the 2023 rotation needed its own thread, however, so here it is.
To get us started, carried over from the Paxton thread, is the question of Brayan Bello and potential innings pitched limits moving forward. Bello pitched 152 innings in 2022. @chawson mentioned a litany of young SP injured after throwing 150 IP plus innings at 24.
We also have just learned that both Whitlock and Houck have been told to prepare as starters, with Houck potentially moving to the bullpen.
We know Paxton will be with the team, but we've no idea if he'll be healthy. Bloom said he was "expected to make a full recovery" after his lat injury. This gives us a potential rotation of
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Bello
Whitlock (edit)
Houck SP/RP
What more do we need? Are we comfortable rolling in with the above plus Crawford, Winckowski, and Seabold? Will the Sox offer Eovaldi the QO (likely)? Will he take it (unlikely)?
To get us started, carried over from the Paxton thread, is the question of Brayan Bello and potential innings pitched limits moving forward. Bello pitched 152 innings in 2022. @chawson mentioned a litany of young SP injured after throwing 150 IP plus innings at 24.
How will the Red Sox handle Bello this year?Probably, but there's not a ton of precedent in the last decade for 24-year-olds to throw more than 150 IP, and many of those that have have gotten hurt in the next year or so (Bieber, Buehler, Cole, Shelby Miller, Eovaldi, Severino, Wheeler, Bundy, Fulmer, Harvey, Jon and Sonny Gray, et al.).
Bello throws a harder fastball than any of those young pitchers besides Severino. I have no idea what leads to increased injury risk in young pitchers, but throwing 97 m.p.h. high-spin fastballs over 175-200 IP would have me a little worried about Bello's arb years.
We also have just learned that both Whitlock and Houck have been told to prepare as starters, with Houck potentially moving to the bullpen.
We know Paxton will be with the team, but we've no idea if he'll be healthy. Bloom said he was "expected to make a full recovery" after his lat injury. This gives us a potential rotation of
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Bello
Whitlock (edit)
Houck SP/RP
What more do we need? Are we comfortable rolling in with the above plus Crawford, Winckowski, and Seabold? Will the Sox offer Eovaldi the QO (likely)? Will he take it (unlikely)?
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