Eduardo Rodriguez' departure to greener pastures in the Midwest — I, for one, will miss him — seems like an opportune moment to start a thread on future of the starting rotation, with more focus than the general off-season thread.
I thought I'd get us started with a look at the recent statistics of the healthy SP in the system who could potentially throw big league innings, starting with the five guys who would be our rotation if the season started tomorrow. As I get to it, I'll do shorter write-ups for our minor league pitching pipeline, potential free agent targets, and trade targets. And of course, I am gathering this all together because I would love to hear your thoughts.
The Incumbents
Chris Sale's 2021 line may look better than his appearances felt to watch, but the fact of the matter is that he came back, made nine regular season starts, and seven of them were at least pretty good. The postseason added 7.1 IP of pretty poor pitching against excellent offenses, for an overall 4.14 ERA in 50 IP. Sometimes guys take a minute to come all the way back from TJS — his changeup, a "feel" pitch that is often the last to come back, was MIA at moments, leaving him precious little margin for error against righties — so I'm not sure he's quite in his final form, but I have to say I was encouraged after watching his late inning efforts. He may not be an ace ace again, but he was still missing bats in the strike zone. He should be a useful arm in 2022. But for how many innings? You'd have to imagine that 120 IP or so is the most we'd want to let this guy throw.
Sale is signed through 2024, with a vesting option for '25. He has an opt-out after the 2022 season. Right now, few expect him to exercise that option.
Nathan Eovaldi was extraordinary in 2021, coming in 12th in IP and 27th in FIP, a combination that made him the most valuable pitcher in the American League by Fangraphs WAR, and third overall. When he came back from injury mid-2020, Eovaldi basically stopped walking people. Then in 2021, he sharply cut back on HR allowed. He still gives up base hits, but with so few walks and less than a HR every other start, they don't amount to much. We have one more season with Eovaldi, and I see no reason that it won't be a great one. The only caveat is the obvious one: Eovaldi is already the most accomplished pitcher to ever return from a second TJS. How much tread can possibly be left on those tires?
Eovaldi will be a FA in the 22-23 offseason.
I feel like I know about how Pivetta struggled in Philadelphia and needed a change of scenery to unlock his obvious potential, but actually looking at the last few seasons worth of numbers really underscores how remarkable his turnaround at the 2020 alternate site was. He still walks plenty of guys and gives up his share of HR, but that just means he should be the fourth or fifth best pitcher on a good staff. With Rodriguez gone, Pivetta looks primed to play a crucial role in the rotation. In 2021, he provided reliable innings, averaging precisely 5 IP/start at a tic better than league average quality, which is better than it sounds when you consider that it came after what amounted to a lost season. That is wildly valuable in a arb-eligible player. As of today, we only have two starters with a realistic chance to throw 180 IP next season, and Pivetta is one of them.
Pivetta will be a FA in the 24-25 offseason.
Tanner Houck is a great reminder of the adage about "not scouting the box score" in the minors. His combined minor league track record (270 IP, 4.17 ERA, 1.393 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9) does not scream "prospect." But after his call up, it comes out that the team was making him throw terrible changeups all the time, so he was walking guys and getting hit around. So he came up and was better in every respect: his regular season MLB career is now 86 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. And I think this is why some of us — myself very much included — have trouble fully believing in Houck. How is this guy who was just getting shelled in high-A now posting a stat line comparable to some of the best young starters in the game? Normally, you have to throw well in the minors before you throw well in the majors. It's bizarre.
I will say that I am tentatively on board with Houck in the rotation now. It took me awhile to come around on that, but the splitter looks like it should help him keep the lefties at bay just enough to navigate a lineup two or even — dare I say — three times. He has a moderate platoon split, and it looks like it may have been a bit bigger without BABIP discrepancies that were likely caused by our asymmetrical infield defense and home ballpark. Something to watch.
In 2021, Houck threw 21 IP in AAA, 69 in the MLB regular season, and 10 more in the post season: exactly 100 IP. I would expect him to have a cap around 145 IP.
Houck will not be a FA until 27-28, because the team shamefully used the COVID double-header rules to monkey with his service time.
Not quite so mystifying as Houck, Whitlock's 2018 was excellent across three levels (120 IP, 2.24 ERA, 122 K to 41 BB, 3 HR), and then his 2019 was good-not-great (fewer strikeouts) until he eventually was shut down for surgery. 2020 was a good year to be minor leaguer rehabbing from TJS.
I will say, I am a big believer in Whitlock as a starter. He has the build. He is stingy with walks. Unlike Houck, he has the minor league track record and the unambiguous full complement of pitches: 4-seam, 2-seam, changeup, slider. The changeup is so nasty He keeps the ball on the ground, which could help him be efficient (if we are able to improve our infield defense). He actually had a big platoon split in 2021, but it was mostly BABIP driven (.070 point difference in BABIP leading to a .300 point OPS difference). He seems like he could be good at it, and he would clearly be more valuable in that role. If we want to stash him for depth as a high-lev reliever, or if we want to get another year away from his surgery before stretching him out to a full starter's workload (perhaps as Eovaldi's replacement), that would be fine, but he should be a starter eventually. Really, my only concern is the innings buildup. He threw ~82 IP between the regular season and the postseason, so he shouldn't be counted on for more than 130 or so.
Whitlock will not be a FA until 26-27.
Which brings me to the real focus of the thread: these five guys could be a starting rotation. But best-case, before any injuries, we're looking at 750 innings. Our starting rotation in 2021 threw 810ish; the best starting rotations (Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Oakland, Houston, Chicago) threw more in the 850-900 range. So, we're probably going to see 50-150 IP innings thrown by a starter not mentioned here. If we retain Houck or Whitlock in the bullpen, that number goes up considerably.
Here's where Rodriguez would really have helped. We have a ton of upside in this group; what we need are reliable innings. So I expect us to add, potentially from the farm and outside the organization.
I thought I'd get us started with a look at the recent statistics of the healthy SP in the system who could potentially throw big league innings, starting with the five guys who would be our rotation if the season started tomorrow. As I get to it, I'll do shorter write-ups for our minor league pitching pipeline, potential free agent targets, and trade targets. And of course, I am gathering this all together because I would love to hear your thoughts.
The Incumbents
Chris Sale's 2021 line may look better than his appearances felt to watch, but the fact of the matter is that he came back, made nine regular season starts, and seven of them were at least pretty good. The postseason added 7.1 IP of pretty poor pitching against excellent offenses, for an overall 4.14 ERA in 50 IP. Sometimes guys take a minute to come all the way back from TJS — his changeup, a "feel" pitch that is often the last to come back, was MIA at moments, leaving him precious little margin for error against righties — so I'm not sure he's quite in his final form, but I have to say I was encouraged after watching his late inning efforts. He may not be an ace ace again, but he was still missing bats in the strike zone. He should be a useful arm in 2022. But for how many innings? You'd have to imagine that 120 IP or so is the most we'd want to let this guy throw.
Sale is signed through 2024, with a vesting option for '25. He has an opt-out after the 2022 season. Right now, few expect him to exercise that option.
Nathan Eovaldi was extraordinary in 2021, coming in 12th in IP and 27th in FIP, a combination that made him the most valuable pitcher in the American League by Fangraphs WAR, and third overall. When he came back from injury mid-2020, Eovaldi basically stopped walking people. Then in 2021, he sharply cut back on HR allowed. He still gives up base hits, but with so few walks and less than a HR every other start, they don't amount to much. We have one more season with Eovaldi, and I see no reason that it won't be a great one. The only caveat is the obvious one: Eovaldi is already the most accomplished pitcher to ever return from a second TJS. How much tread can possibly be left on those tires?
Eovaldi will be a FA in the 22-23 offseason.
I feel like I know about how Pivetta struggled in Philadelphia and needed a change of scenery to unlock his obvious potential, but actually looking at the last few seasons worth of numbers really underscores how remarkable his turnaround at the 2020 alternate site was. He still walks plenty of guys and gives up his share of HR, but that just means he should be the fourth or fifth best pitcher on a good staff. With Rodriguez gone, Pivetta looks primed to play a crucial role in the rotation. In 2021, he provided reliable innings, averaging precisely 5 IP/start at a tic better than league average quality, which is better than it sounds when you consider that it came after what amounted to a lost season. That is wildly valuable in a arb-eligible player. As of today, we only have two starters with a realistic chance to throw 180 IP next season, and Pivetta is one of them.
Pivetta will be a FA in the 24-25 offseason.
Tanner Houck is a great reminder of the adage about "not scouting the box score" in the minors. His combined minor league track record (270 IP, 4.17 ERA, 1.393 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9) does not scream "prospect." But after his call up, it comes out that the team was making him throw terrible changeups all the time, so he was walking guys and getting hit around. So he came up and was better in every respect: his regular season MLB career is now 86 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. And I think this is why some of us — myself very much included — have trouble fully believing in Houck. How is this guy who was just getting shelled in high-A now posting a stat line comparable to some of the best young starters in the game? Normally, you have to throw well in the minors before you throw well in the majors. It's bizarre.
I will say that I am tentatively on board with Houck in the rotation now. It took me awhile to come around on that, but the splitter looks like it should help him keep the lefties at bay just enough to navigate a lineup two or even — dare I say — three times. He has a moderate platoon split, and it looks like it may have been a bit bigger without BABIP discrepancies that were likely caused by our asymmetrical infield defense and home ballpark. Something to watch.
In 2021, Houck threw 21 IP in AAA, 69 in the MLB regular season, and 10 more in the post season: exactly 100 IP. I would expect him to have a cap around 145 IP.
Houck will not be a FA until 27-28, because the team shamefully used the COVID double-header rules to monkey with his service time.
Not quite so mystifying as Houck, Whitlock's 2018 was excellent across three levels (120 IP, 2.24 ERA, 122 K to 41 BB, 3 HR), and then his 2019 was good-not-great (fewer strikeouts) until he eventually was shut down for surgery. 2020 was a good year to be minor leaguer rehabbing from TJS.
I will say, I am a big believer in Whitlock as a starter. He has the build. He is stingy with walks. Unlike Houck, he has the minor league track record and the unambiguous full complement of pitches: 4-seam, 2-seam, changeup, slider. The changeup is so nasty He keeps the ball on the ground, which could help him be efficient (if we are able to improve our infield defense). He actually had a big platoon split in 2021, but it was mostly BABIP driven (.070 point difference in BABIP leading to a .300 point OPS difference). He seems like he could be good at it, and he would clearly be more valuable in that role. If we want to stash him for depth as a high-lev reliever, or if we want to get another year away from his surgery before stretching him out to a full starter's workload (perhaps as Eovaldi's replacement), that would be fine, but he should be a starter eventually. Really, my only concern is the innings buildup. He threw ~82 IP between the regular season and the postseason, so he shouldn't be counted on for more than 130 or so.
Whitlock will not be a FA until 26-27.
Which brings me to the real focus of the thread: these five guys could be a starting rotation. But best-case, before any injuries, we're looking at 750 innings. Our starting rotation in 2021 threw 810ish; the best starting rotations (Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Oakland, Houston, Chicago) threw more in the 850-900 range. So, we're probably going to see 50-150 IP innings thrown by a starter not mentioned here. If we retain Houck or Whitlock in the bullpen, that number goes up considerably.
Here's where Rodriguez would really have helped. We have a ton of upside in this group; what we need are reliable innings. So I expect us to add, potentially from the farm and outside the organization.
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