My new book,
Baseball Greatness: Top Players and Teams According to Wins Above Average, 1901-2017, was published earlier this month. You can listen to me discuss it
on a podcast here, if you wish--note there are several ways to reach the podcast--and it's available here, where you can also see prepublication comments from Rob Neyer and others.
Let me quickly summarize what it had to say about the 2017 Red Sox and what it implies for the 2018 Red Sox.
The focuses on the metric Wins Above Average (WAA, not WAR). It shows that it's very difficult to win a pennant without at least one player with at least 4 WAA, which is defined as a superstar season. 2-3 WAA is defined as a star season. The Red Sox of 2017 were unusual. They did not have a single everyday player that good, although Mookie Betts just missed that level with 3.9 WAA., after reaching it in the previous two seasons.Not a single other player in the lineup earned as much as 2 WAA and the lineup as a whole was about three wins below average. The pitching staff carried the team, earning a remarkable +15 WAA--a very unusual figure--led by Chris Sale, of course, with 4.9, followed by Drew Pomeranz (3.1) and Craig Kimbrel (2.8). It will be surprising if the pitching staff can sustain that level of performance for another year, putting pressure on the lineup to improve.
Devers, and perhaps Benintendi, could advance to the star or even superstar level, although I think it's unlikely that both of them will. People won't want to hear this, but Bradley and Bogaerts have already proven that they are not going to be the kind of major asset that gets you into postseason. As for J. D. Martinez, he had his best year ever last year with 2.7 WAA, only the second time that he has had 2 or more. It would not be surprising if he slipped a little this year because average hitting performance is higher in the AL than the NL.
As many of you recall, the Red Sox' 94 wins last year represented their true level of ability, while the Yankees' run differential should have given them 101 wins. Giancarlo Stanton figures to be better than J. D Martinez, suggesting that their superiority may increase. The reason we watch and write about baseball is that you never know what will happen until the game is played, and no one
knows how the AL East will turn out. It seems most likely to me, however, that the Yankees will win it comfortably while the Red Sox fight for a wild card slot.