I somehow feel Lebron will be the Tom Brady of the NBA if he wants to keep playing, in which case I would have him as a top asset as well. I know that is maybe crazy but its the season for hot takes to compensate for how cold I was in Michigan.
Trae Young is the only name I can think of that you may have left off your list. I crossed off a bunch because of age, they just don't have enough of their prime years left to be as valuable as JB will be over the next 10 years. I crossed off Fox because I don't think he's good enough to be in the group with the rest of those guys. I could see people trying to include Siakam but I don't think he's good enough to be there either.I think the much more interesting question is, where is Jaylen on this list?
I think after this start it’s minimum top 20. Due to age, I think I would put him top 15?
As you said, after that top 6 it gets really murky
Luka
Giannis
Tatum
Jokic
Zion
AD
(Just thinking aloud with these next names and after typing them all out, I guess it’s how you define “asset” really)
Embiid?
Kawhi?
LeBron?
Harden?
Curry?
KAT?
Lillard?
PG?
Bam?
Booker?
Morant?
Beal?
Mitchell?
Murray?
Fox?
Giannis is a whopping 2 months older than Jokic.Booker, Jaylen, and Mitchell are probably the top guys in the "already good, locked up, and with room to improve" basket. (Below that Luka/Tatum/Jokic tier).
Yeah, everyone knows who the awesome tier is, so didn’t bother naming them all. I was just filling out the one below.Giannis is a whopping 2 months older than Jokic.
edit: Nevermind, he was named in the original post.
The leap he’s taken is ridiculous, and you can see ways for him to go further. 27/7/4 is....not many wings get there, ever.I feel like it’s gone somewhat under the radar, but Tatum has been a monster so far. Considering that he had to miss two weeks with covid and hasn’t had much time to really get into one of his insane rhythms, pretty impressive. It’s crazy how he consistently carries all bench lineups against other teams starters.
27/7/4, 59% TS. Team has a +7.9 net rating when he plays, and a -2.3 when he sits.
Yeah I’m not too worried about him continuing to improve as a playmaker, he pretty consistently makes the right read, outside of a few times a game where he tries overdribbling through traps.The leap he’s taken is ridiculous, and you can see ways for him to go further. 27/7/4 is....not many wings get there, ever.
Also, when you see assist numbers for a guy who doesn’t bring the ball up the floor, they’re generally deflated because assists are so generous. I.e. if you watch a lot of Smart’s assists, they are basically Brown/Tatum isos where Smart was the guy who passed to them coming off the initial screen the Celtics like to run.
Point being that 4 assists/game at the wing is more than it looks, although he can still improve there.
Probably because he does a ton of the time. He was one of the very top self-created 3 guys for volume and % last year.It feels like every time he dribbles into a 3 from the top of the three point arc he drains it.
“Jayson Tatum can play point, and so we’ll but him in that role some and play big in that way if we need to. We’ll see how the game is going, see who is productive — especially in that first half seeing how that feels. But I have no problem putting Tatum at the 1 as well.”
This could be fun to watch, as the 22-year-old has taken his game a step higher than even last year’s level, which was worthy of All-NBA honors.
With how much work Tatum has put in to grow as a facilitator, averaging a career-high 3.7 assists per game this season, reps at point guard very conceivable could help expedite that.
He’s doing this for a championship contender too, not putting up crazy numbers on a bad team where he has to take all the shots.The leap he’s taken is ridiculous, and you can see ways for him to go further. 27/7/4 is....not many wings get there, ever.
Also, when you see assist numbers for a guy who doesn’t bring the ball up the floor, they’re generally deflated because assists are so generous. I.e. if you watch a lot of Smart’s assists, they are basically Brown/Tatum isos where Smart was the guy who passed to them coming off the initial screen the Celtics like to run.
Point being that 4 assists/game at the wing is more than it looks, although he can still improve there.
He was quite literally the best player in the league for a month, I don't think it's fair to expect that level of play going forward. However, he's really not far off that pace. In February and March he averaged 29.2/7.6/3.3, while shooting .476/.468/.752. So far this year he's averaging 26.8/7/1.3.6 while shooting .483/.431/.833.People keep mentioning Tatums leap this year but I don’t see it (and I’m a Tatum Stan). He hit a level higher last year before the break (February) that was amazing. I don’t think he is back there yet.
He’s a much better playmaker now than he was during that run. I agree that during that stretch, he was getting to his 3 more in ways that were more compromising for the defense.People keep mentioning Tatums leap this year but I don’t see it (and I’m a Tatum Stan). He hit a level higher last year before the break (February) that was amazing. I don’t think he is back there yet.
PP will give a bump to JT's efficiency.People keep mentioning Tatums leap this year but I don’t see it (and I’m a Tatum Stan). He hit a level higher last year before the break (February) that was amazing. I don’t think he is back there yet.
His TS is up on last year, as are his assist and rebounding rates and scoring/40, at a 10% higher usage rate, all with no bump in turnover rate (9.0 to 9.1). He is objectively a better offensive player. And he had Covid.He’s a much better playmaker now than he was during that run. I agree that during that stretch, he was getting to his 3 more in ways that were more compromising for the defense.
His TS is up on last year,
That's fair. I don't have the time to pull his bubble numbers out distinctly, but I'm not sure how predictive the bubble is really either. His future leaps are likely in the overall efficiency and playmaking realms imo, and he seems to have made obvious strides on last year in the latter.He started somewhat slow last year (for him, Russillo was off him a bit, I had diamond hands), and then after it was announced he made the AS Team, he went bonkers. I'm saying he isn't a "leap" different than post AS announcement. It's a minor point. He might be a little better this year. Brown seems like he made more of a leap. Tatum and Brown were pretty even for a while last year(debatable who was going to make AS game), then Tatum took off.
Absorbing coaching is one thing. But Tatum also implements it quickly. “Share something with Jayson once,” says Celtics coach Brad Stevens, “and he usually does it the next time down the floor. Stevens recalls a sequence during an exhibition game in Charlotte in Tatum’s rookie season. The Hornets ran a play the Celtics hadn’t worked on defending. Tatum got lost the first time. When Charlotte ran the same play a few possessions later, Tatum broke it up. Last season Celtics assistant Jay Larranaga showed Tatum a clip of Kemba Walker getting to the rim with an in-and-out dribble. The next night Tatum scored on a similar move. “His brain never gets sped up,” says Larranaga. “You tell him something in a game and he is able to immediately apply it.”
JT leaves Boston. That and when Beal's contract is up he'll be on the wrong side of 30.How does Bradley Beal not become a Celtic some day, if he and JT are close like brothers?
374 | .396 |
423 | .473 |
Tatum will continue to get better at the rim as he matures and adds 5-10lbs of muscle every offseason. He will hunt for contact, play through it, and draw more fouls. see Brown, JaylenI can’t believe I’m the first to point this out (perhaps it’s up thread further than I read) but the most salient leap Tatum made this year is finishing around the rim. Last year even into the playoffs he struggled to finish his drives to the hoop. He went from .618 last year 0-3 to .676 this year on big volume. He’s actually shooting better on almost all 2PT shots
3-10. 10-16
374 .396
423 .473
His mix is a bit worse so his 2pt% overall has only gone from .480 to .507.
During his heater last February he was just unconscious from 3 with even circus shots in a way that was unsustainable for any human including Curry. Even though it may look flatish he has progressed in very important ways for reaching the next level as a high efficiency/ late game player.
For me the knocks are that in the bubble he was getting to the line more and creating for his teammates better. We know he’s capable and if he brings that back he’s vying for first team all nba.
I really don’t like the frame on this Vermeer....I'm not worried about scoring at the rim, but his lack of free throws is annoying. Right now it's the only real flaw in his game (he could improve other aspects, but he's at least average everywhere else). His FT rate is just .181, the lowest of his career (.250 career rate). He's 7th in the league in ppg, and is shooting fewer free throws than anyone in the top 20. It's nice that he's so efficient with such an obvious hole in his game, but it's still frustrating.
To my eye, the lane has been clogged with this double BIG crap for a lot of JT's minutes this season. Once everyone is healthy, Brad will stop going with this nonsense. The floor will be spread and the lane will open up for Tatum. He'll be able to get downhill and draw on his man.I'm not worried about scoring at the rim, but his lack of free throws is annoying. Right now it's the only real flaw in his game (he could improve other aspects, but he's at least average everywhere else). His FT rate is just .181, the lowest of his career (.250 career rate). He's 7th in the league in ppg, and is shooting fewer free throws than anyone in the top 20. It's nice that he's so efficient with such an obvious hole in his game, but it's still frustrating.
There were those who questioned if he’d ever be an elite finisher around the rim (as he’s looking right now) due to his smaller hand size making it hard to control the ball like the best of them in tight space. Remember he used to get stripped with regularity. He’s worked on incorporating adjustments that are imperceptible to people like me (things like when he starts his gather I wouldn’t know except that I’ve read about them) but the results are obvious.Tatum will continue to get better at the rim as he matures and adds 5-10lbs of muscle every offseason. He will hunt for contact, play through it, and draw more fouls. see Brown, Jaylen
People grabbed their pearls last fall when Tatum struggled at the rim. At the time, JT was really figuring out how to be the #1 option, not settle for mid-range 2s (as he did in 18-19), and drive it to the rim. As was noted at the time, JT just needed to get comfortable, develop a few tricks (euro step, two foot, keep dribble, etc) and add strength. check, check, check
#stillascending
Part of it is looking for contact instead of looking to avoid contact, which is a change in approach from his early years. He's creating space to get his shot off with his now burly frame and able to finish even through a lot of the hands and arms that were able to interfere with finishing previously.There were those who questioned if he’d ever be an elite finisher around the rim (as he’s looking right now) due to his smaller hand size making it hard to control the ball like the best of them in tight space. Remember he used to get stripped with regularity. He’s worked on incorporating adjustments that are imperceptible to people like me (things like when he starts his gather I wouldn’t know except that I’ve read about them) but the results are obvious.
It’s crazy how fast I had forgotten that endless strip parade whenever he drove.There were those who questioned if he’d ever be an elite finisher around the rim (as he’s looking right now) due to his smaller hand size making it hard to control the ball like the best of them in tight space. Remember he used to get stripped with regularity. He’s worked on incorporating adjustments that are imperceptible to people like me (things like when he starts his gather I wouldn’t know except that I’ve read about them) but the results are obvious.
Trying to give this more context.I can’t believe I’m the first to point this out (perhaps it’s up thread further than I read) but the most salient leap Tatum made this year is finishing around the rim. Last year even into the playoffs he struggled to finish his drives to the hoop. He went from .618 last year 0-3 to .676 this year on big volume. He’s actually shooting better on almost all 2PT shots
3-10. 10-16
374 .396
423 .473
His mix is a bit worse so his 2pt% overall has only gone from .480 to .507.
During his heater last February he was just unconscious from 3 with even circus shots in a way that was unsustainable for any human including Curry. Even though it may look flatish he has progressed in very important ways for reaching the next level as a high efficiency/ late game player.
For me the knocks are that in the bubble he was getting to the line more and creating for his teammates better. We know he’s capable and if he brings that back he’s vying for first team all nba.
Bumping this because I was just looking at Tatum's numbers and I don't think I really realized how bad he is at getting to the line compared to potential comps. His free throw rate this year is .238. By contrast, here are the rates of other players when they were 22: Kobe .369, Durant .439, Butler .455 (technically his age-23 season, his first season of major playing time), Paul Pierce .409, Harden .587(!). Granted the league-wide FT rates have come down a bit over the years, but Tatum is still far from where he needs to be and the fact that most other stars seem to have had this skill (ability to get to the line) pretty much from the get-go does give me a good amount of concern that he'll ever bring those numbers up to where they need to be for him to truly make the next leap.I'm not worried about scoring at the rim, but his lack of free throws is annoying. Right now it's the only real flaw in his game (he could improve other aspects, but he's at least average everywhere else). His FT rate is just .181, the lowest of his career (.250 career rate). He's 7th in the league in ppg, and is shooting fewer free throws than anyone in the top 20. It's nice that he's so efficient with such an obvious hole in his game, but it's still frustrating.
I don't think it really has a ton to do with a lack of "superstar treatment" since, for example, Marcus Smart's rate this year is .330. And LeBron's rate in recent years has been around the .350 mark or so - which is much better than Tatum, but not outlandish.Is he not drawing contact or is he not getting the superstar treatment that the other guys get?
When he upfakes he's far more likely lean around them for a closer shot then take the contact. He's got excellent footwork so it's all well and good when he can step into a layup, but for anything farther away he really should be taking the contact, not avoiding it. Someone with his shot profile should be getting 2-3 trips to the line each game just on upfakes, let alone when he goes to the rim.Tatum doesn’t really use the shots that elite FT getters do. I’m thinking the Harden/Curry kick out three, or the Pierce upfake and lean-in jumper. It doesn’t explain his entire deficiency in that regard, but some of it.
Agree with previous posts - JT's habit is to avoid contact plus he doesn't have the "Go-To-Get-Fouled" move that others, like Trae Young, has. Athletic did an article on this after ATL loss: https://theathletic.com/2396034/2021/02/18/trae-young-celtics-fouls-hawks/. One part:(Jaylen's numbers are also very low in this regard which could suggest this is an intentional thing that Brad is specifically coaching, but if that's the case I don't think it's a particularly wise strategy.)
I’m sure it has affected him, but I think the ball-stopping, isolation style of offense he has decided to play lately has more to do with the team’s overall struggles.Wondering (aloud) how much this has to do with some of the Celtics fourth quarter meltdowns:
The 22-year-old Tatum has done so despite a recent bout with covid-19, which he said left him getting “fatigued a lot quicker than normal” because it “messes with your breathing a little bit.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/02/22/boston-celtics-disappointing-season/