Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

[Jnai]

 
Basically a bad four-seamer, a nice sinker, average changeup, and above average slider.....He doesn't throw a curveball. I don't mind it, but I would like a slightly better changeup from a lefty.

 
Uhh... curve's right there in the data...
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2014&month=9&day=27&pitchSel=489119.xml&game=gid_2014_09_27_slnmlb_arimlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2014_09_27_slnmlb_arimlb_1/

 

[jimbobim]

 
I'm rationally critiquing the move, not freaking out.
 
The point wasn't that Miley is a crappy guy to get to be a top of the rotation guy, the point was that WE DID NOT FILL A HOLE. We did not have a need for a fifth starter. Back of the rotation depth is the one thing that this team has in fucking spades. Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar. That's NINE guys who were candidates for the fifth starter spot at some point in 2015. There is no way these guys couldn't get 200 innings. There's almost no way none of these guys were going to be decen enough for a fifth starter.
 
We paid decent value for minimal improvement and that is something that should be criticized.

 
It's not rational to keep insisting he is a 5th starter. He's just not and we had nothing comparable to him.

 

[gammoseditor]

 
I'm rationally critiquing the move, not freaking out.
 
The point wasn't that Miley is a crappy guy to get to be a top of the rotation guy, the point was that WE DID NOT FILL A HOLE. We did not have a need for a fifth starter. Back of the rotation depth is the one thing that this team has in fucking spades. Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar. That's NINE guys who were candidates for the fifth starter spot at some point in 2015. There is no way these guys couldn't get 200 innings. There's almost no way none of these guys were going to be decen enough for a fifth starter.
 
We paid decent value for minimal improvement and that is something that should be criticized.

 
Yeah, but you don't get to try them all out for 100 innings and then keep the best one.  What were the odds that the guy who was pitching in the fifth spot would be as good as Miley?  Now what were the odds that it was going to be Webster or de la Rosa, because if it's anyone else they will prove it in AAA and be called up in case of an injury.  

 

[Rasputin]

So, Ben shouldn't make any pitching moves at all until he nets a true replacement for Lester?

 
Stupid strawman alert!
 
That was a stupid strawman.
 
Of course you're wrong.
 
Had this been a deal for a really good lefty reliever instead of a middling starter, I wouldn't be complaining unless it was a really bad deal for a really good lefty reliever.

 

[GilaMonster]

 
Uhh... curve's right there in the data...
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2014&month=9&day=27&pitchSel=489119.xml&game=gid_2014_09_27_slnmlb_arimlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2014_09_27_slnmlb_arimlb_1/

 
Also known as 2% of the pitches he threw.... 

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
I'm rationally critiquing the move, not freaking out.
 
The point wasn't that Miley is a crappy guy to get to be a top of the rotation guy, the point was that WE DID NOT FILL A HOLE. We did not have a need for a fifth starter. Back of the rotation depth is the one thing that this team has in fucking spades. Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar. That's NINE guys who were candidates for the fifth starter spot at some point in 2015. There is no way these guys couldn't get 200 innings. There's almost no way none of these guys were going to be decen enough for a fifth starter.
 
We paid decent value for minimal improvement and that is something that should be criticized.

Wade Miley is a #3 at worst. none of the guys you listed should be going in ST as a 3. He's significantly better than all of those guys, he's a #3 with a real chance to be a #2, nobody other than Buch on the roster can say that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Webster's performance in AAA was fine, although his peripherals weren't really any better than the IL averages, and he was pretty terrible in his limited major league time. He walked way too many and struck out way too few. I don't get way people liked him- nor do I understand why he seems to be so much more beloved than Workman- a guy with better peripherals who has actually had some big league success. Rubby seems like the potential loss- although he was pretty poor after a hot start and seemed to be the benefit of some good luck. What am I missing re Webster?

 
The fact that he had hardly any time in the major leagues, so we really had no idea how good he was/is going to be. 89 innings just isn't enough to draw any conclusions from. He had a great September, which could be small sample voodoo, or could mean he was actually getting over a hump. The only way to find out would have been to give him more starts. I don't object to the idea of cashing in his potential for proven mid-level competence; I only object to the idea that we had seen enough and it was time to get rid of him.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
I'm rationally critiquing the move, not freaking out.
 
The point wasn't that Miley is a crappy guy to get to be a top of the rotation guy, the point was that WE DID NOT FILL A HOLE. We did not have a need for a fifth starter. Back of the rotation depth is the one thing that this team has in fucking spades. Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar. That's NINE guys who were candidates for the fifth starter spot at some point in 2015. There is no way these guys couldn't get 200 innings. There's almost no way none of these guys were going to be decen enough for a fifth starter.
 
We paid decent value for minimal improvement and that is something that should be criticized.

They filled a spot at the bottom of the rotation with cost certainty.  None of the guys you mention have ever pitched 200 innings in a big league season.  Miley has.  I thought you'd have learned from last year to not put all your eggs in the rookie basket.  

 

[LondonSox]

 
I generally love your posts, but I have to take issue with this. "Average starters" don't throw 200 IP/season. That has tremendous value to a staff, even if the quality of those innings is merely decent. 

Yeah I may feel stupid later about this. I don't know enough about Miley and I am a big RDLR guy. I think he is going to be a stud. I don't mind the other pieces, Webster is a bullpen arm for me and Barnes is better.
I think ruby had turned the corner and the stuff is just fantastic. I think RDLR is going to be a stud. That's really why I am annoyed. I don't want to lose him. I may be wrong. But I think he is going to be the best guy in the trade when we look back. I have no problem with the sox trading multiple guys for studs. I just think they moved the wrong guy here.

Also I'm sick and drunk.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Definitely an uninspiring trade .. I suppose they have upgraded the RDLR/Webster rotation spot .. But what I really don't like about this is that it appears they will enter next season with five veteran SPs .. Thus leaving no room for The AAA guys knocking on the door. I wanted that 5th spot open to see if one of the prospects breaks through. Now it looks like it will take an injury. Of course this presumes that Owens or Rodriguez or Barnes will still be on the team.

 

[Rasputin]

 
It's not rational to keep insisting he is a 5th starter. He's just not and we had nothing comparable to him.

 
Guess what?
 
Another stupid strawman alert.
 
I haven't said he's a fifth starter.
 
If we get good Buchholz--and assuming we still add the two guys at the top--then Miley is our fourth starter and Kelly is our fifth starter. Net effect, small improvement at the back end of the rotation.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'm not a Webster guy at all but RDLR has the stuff that could play up in a closer role. I was looking forward to seeing him step in after Koji next year. Cyrus is solid though and this helps us a lot in '15.

 

[Pumpsie]

How can you not like this trade at least a little bit?  You get a legit left-handed lower half of the rotation MLB starter for, basically, RDLR.  Webster has become the type of player Yogi Berra was talking about when he once said of an older prospect "he used to have a future." You get rid of two of the many pitching prospects the Sox have who have the least upside.  And, as someone noted, these two can hardly be considered "prospects" any more.  They were just clogging up the 40-man when the Sox have to clear as much room there as they can.  The Sox are better now than they were before this trade. You can quibble about how much better but it's definitely better.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
Guess what?
 
Another stupid strawman alert.
 
I haven't said he's a fifth starter.
 
If we get good Buchholz--and assuming we still add the two guys at the top--then Miley is our fourth starter and Kelly is our fifth starter. Net effect, small improvement at the back end of the rotation.

 
Are you seriously breaking this down to specific rotation slots? Damn. The Red Sox need starters, and an idea of how many starters they need--probably three at the end of the day. Wade Miley is a durable, healthy starter who gives you innings and reliable performance. It took two young pitchers who haven't come close to Miley's track record yet to get him. It stings, but he fits our need.
 
This nonsense about fourth and fifth and back of the rotation is not relevant. The Red Sox upgraded their rotation today. Your last sentence here--isn't that kinda the idea?

 

[Rasputin]

They filled a spot at the bottom of the rotation with cost certainty.  None of the guys you mention have ever pitched 200 innings in a big league season.  Miley has.  I thought you'd have learned from last year to not put all your eggs in the rookie basket.  

 
One roster spot is not putting all anything in anything.
 
Also, THERE ARE NINE OF THEM.
 
You don't think they can average 23 innings each?
 
 

Wade Miley is a #3 at worst. none of the guys you listed should be going in ST as a 3. He's significantly better than all of those guys, he's a #3 with a real chance to be a #2, nobody other than Buch on the roster can say that.

 
Hey, third stupid strawman alert. Discussing things really works better if you actually take the time to read and understand what the other person is saying.
 
We had the fifth spot covered. The net effect of getting Miley is to push Kelly back to fifth and if Buchholz is mediocre, push him back to fourth. He's our third starter at best unless the front office really doesn't get the job done this off season.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Guess what?
 
Another stupid strawman alert.
 
I haven't said he's a fifth starter.
 
If we get good Buchholz--and assuming we still add the two guys at the top--then Miley is our fourth starter and Kelly is our fifth starter. Net effect, small improvement at the back end of the rotation.

 
 

 
I'm rationally critiquing the move, not freaking out.
 
The point wasn't that Miley is a crappy guy to get to be a top of the rotation guy, the point was that WE DID NOT FILL A HOLE. We did not have a need for a fifth starter. Back of the rotation depth is the one thing that this team has in fucking spades. Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar. That's NINE guys who were candidates for the fifth starter spot at some point in 2015. There is no way these guys couldn't get 200 innings. There's almost no way none of these guys were going to be decen enough for a fifth starter.
 
We paid decent value for minimal improvement and that is something that should be criticized.

 
Also, we only have spots in the Pawtucket rotation for five of those nine guys, and Escobar is the only one who could reasonably be sent to Portland. There needed to be trades. 
 

 
One roster spot is not putting all anything in anything.
 
Also, THERE ARE NINE OF THEM.
 
You don't think they can average 23 innings each?
 
 
 
Hey, third stupid strawman alert. Discussing things really works better if you actually take the time to read and understand what the other person is saying.
 
We had the fifth spot covered. The net effect of getting Miley is to push Kelly back to fifth and if Buchholz is mediocre, push him back to fourth. He's our third starter at best unless the front office really doesn't get the job done this off season.

 
This is ridiculous, Ras. You're ranting. 

 

[smastroyin]

My disappointment in this trade lies entirely with the fact that the Sox couldn't get Allen Webster figured out. I have not been much of a believer in him based on results but his stuff certainly says he could be a lot better.

Regardless that's neither here nor there. Miley is a fine acquisition, almost sure to provide more value than RDLR and Webster combined to the Red Sox. Arizona gains some potential upside. I don't really love the trade for either team but I think I would like it less as a dbacks fan.

I assume this means the Sox will be spending elsewhere. I would have preferred McCarthy for no prospects even if you overpay him, but there's a long way to go.

I don't love the fact that his k rate increase came with a 30% slider pitch rate. I wouldn't want him to keep that up. Maybe Farrel and Nieves can teach him Lester's cutter.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Are you seriously breaking this down to specific rotation slots? Damn. The Red Sox need starters, and an idea of how many starters they need--probably three at the end of the day. Wade Miley is a durable, healthy starter who gives you innings and reliable performance. It took two young pitchers who haven't come close to Miley's track record yet to get him. It stings, but he fits our need.
 
This nonsense about fourth and fifth and back of the rotation is not relevant. The Red Sox upgraded their rotation today. Your last sentence here--isn't that kinda the idea?

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

This is from an NL West scout (a pal):  I think Miley will be very good for Boston.  Not sure how old the two guys are that Boston gave up, but from what I've read it's not a sure thing either of them are going to reach their potential as starters.  Wade Miley will be good and is a guy that I'd feel confident starting game three of a playoff series for my team.  I try to look at pitchers that way a lot of times and helps put it in perspective.  So I'm in with the Red Sox.  Not sure why the Dbacks sign Tomas then give away a starting pitcher unless they think they are a year or two away.

 

[Wallball Tingle]

He's a good bet to provide a good quantity of innings with solid quality as well...something neither Webster nor RDLR were likely to provide next year. SOMEONE has to throw 180+ on a staff with Kelly and Buchholz.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Guess what?
 
Another stupid strawman alert.
 
I haven't said he's a fifth starter.
 
If we get good Buchholz--and assuming we still add the two guys at the top--then Miley is our fourth starter and Kelly is our fifth starter. Net effect, small improvement at the back end of the rotation.

While I'm waiting to see the prospect or prospects involved before I decide if I like it, this move fits well with their strategy going into 2013. It's easier to gain wins filling in from the bottom than to make gains at the top. Assuming they still intend to pick up a real front line starter, this is a good approach... in theory at least.

 

[Rasputin]

This is ridiculous, Ras. You're ranting. 

 
I tend to do that when people do things like not bother to spend a second to understand what I am saying. We needed top of the rotation guys and still do because Wade Miley is not a top of the rotation guy. We traded solid arms to make a small improvement in an area that was already very very deep.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

This is like criticizing the Sandoval signing by saying we already had 3rd base and the 9th spot in the batting order covered by WMB and Cecchini. At best, Sandoval slots in at sixth and Cespedes, Bogaerts and Vazquez all move down one in the order.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

 
Joe Kelly can be very good, but he has not shown that he can provide reliable innings. Clay Buchholz can be otherworldly good, but he has not shown that he can provide reliable innings. 
 
Wade Miley is a complementary piece to those two because his skill is reliable innings. That wasn't something RDLR was likely to offer, let alone Webster. 
 
I also hope Miley isn't the best pitcher they acquire, but he definitely deepens the staff. 

 

[Lowrielicious]

 
One roster spot is not putting all anything in anything.
 
Also, THERE ARE NINE OF THEM.
 
You don't think they can average 23 innings each?
 
 
 
Hey, third stupid strawman alert. Discussing things really works better if you actually take the time to read and understand what the other person is saying.
 
We had the fifth spot covered. The net effect of getting Miley is to push Kelly back to fifth and if Buchholz is mediocre, push him back to fourth. He's our third starter at best unless the front office really doesn't get the job done this off season.

 
 
Or Clay could lose time to injury again this year.
Kelly has averaged just over 100IP over the last two years.
You seem to have them both locked in for 200 IP.

 

[Rasputin]

He's a good bet to provide a good quantity of innings with solid quality as well...something neither Webster nor RDLR were likely to provide next year. SOMEONE has to throw 180+ on a staff with Kelly and Buchholz.

 
NINE of them. We had NINE of them. It doesn't matter if those innings get thrown by one person or by five, WE HAVE THE DEPTH.
 
Now maybe we're about to trade it all away and they wanted to lock someone up before they did that, but I find it difficult to believe we're not going to have at least a handful of these guys left come opening day.

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

Well he's been a better pitcher than any starter on the Red Sox roster over the last 3 years by most of the numbers, so that's a pretty good reason to think he'll be better than Kelly and probably Buchholz as well.

 

[MakMan44]

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

I mean, Miley is the only guy I'd feel comfortable penciling in for 200 IP next season barring an injury. That's got a fair amount of value for a contender. Sure, you can use your depth to get by throughout the season but you're going to have to wade through a lot of shitty starts to get to teh good ones. It's debatable whether they gave up too much for Miley, but it's really not a stretch to argue that the Sox made a smart move by acquiring him.  
 
EDIT:Based on your last post you don't give a shit about this point. Personally, I think it's stupid to argue that they should just rotate through the 9 guys to find the one that sucks the least. If the cost of cutting through that is Webster and RDLR, I think that's worth it because again, every game lost trying to find the best 5th starter is a game that matters in October. 

 

[Rasputin]

This is like criticizing the Sandoval signing by saying we already had 3rd base and the 9th spot in the batting order covered by WMB and Cecchini. At best, Sandoval slots in at sixth and Cespedes, Bogaerts and Vazquez all move down one in the order.

 
Sandoval is a lot more better than WMB and Cecchini than Miley is better than Kelly.
 
So not, it's not like that at all.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
NINE of them. We had NINE of them. It doesn't matter if those innings get thrown by one person or by five, WE HAVE THE DEPTH.
 
Now maybe we're about to trade it all away and they wanted to lock someone up before they did that, but I find it difficult to believe we're not going to have at least a handful of these guys left come opening day.

How exactly do you go about deciding which of the nine to start with? How long do you let them go if they don't succeed? How do you decide who goes second?

 

[Lowrielicious]

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

Better xFIP every year. Last year significantly so.
200 IP for three years running versus 100 and 124 the last two years.
 
Miley is significantly better.

 

[KillerBs]

Webster did put up a 3.10 ERA in the IL last year, where the league ERA was over 4. Significantly less than a h/ip for second year in a row. Kept the ball in the park reasonably well. Admittedly his K/BB took a step back. 
 
The only point being is he that he is hardly a lost cause/throw in, and still has a decent (maybe less than even) chance to turn into a good big league pitcher. 
 
That said, I can see the logic of this esp in the context of the surplus of AAAA pitchers we have. 

 

[Darnell's Son]

 
I tend to do that when people do things like not bother to spend a second to understand what I am saying. We needed top of the rotation guys and still do because Wade Miley is not a top of the rotation guy. We traded solid arms to make a small improvement in an area that was already very very deep.

But it's still an improvement. And like you said we had NINE guys, so why not use two of them to improve, even if it's a small improvement.
 
I honestly don't get your point at all.

 

[Cellar-Door]

How exactly do you go about deciding which of the nine to start with? How long do you let them go if they don't succeed? How do you decide who goes second?

13 man rotation.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
Sandoval is a lot more better than WMB and Cecchini than Miley is better than Kelly.
 
So not, it's not like that at all.

Based on existing body of work, Miley is better than RDLR and Webster as Sandoval is to WMB, which is the valid comparison.

 

[nvalvo]

 
I tend to do that when people do things like not bother to spend a second to understand what I am saying. We needed top of the rotation guys and still do because Wade Miley is not a top of the rotation guy. We traded solid arms to make a small improvement in an area that was already very very deep.

 
I disagree. We need 900 innings from the rotation, which is 180 IP/slot. Buchholz and Kelly can't be depended on to reach that level, so Ben acquired someone who is a good bet to do so.  

 

[jimbobim]

 
I tend to do that when people do things like not bother to spend a second to understand what I am saying. We needed top of the rotation guys and still do because Wade Miley is not a top of the rotation guy. We traded solid arms to make a small improvement in an area that was already very very deep.

While it's amusing watching you throw up straw man alerts your position ignores the usefulness of the spot in between top of the rotation and the backend. I can confidently say Miley projects to be at the least a servicable 200 ip number 3 starter at the very least. 
 
I don't think that can be said of Kelly or Buch . Kelly at his best is probably a three but due to injury inconsistency and lack of another pitch properly characterized as a backend number 4 of 5. Buch you just never know a true number 5 guy if you want to be playoff competitive. 
 
Finally, they needed innings and Miley is a way better bet to provide that at an average or above average level than Rubby or Webster. 

 

[smastroyin]

While I'm waiting to see the prospect or prospects involved before I decide if I like it, this move fits well with their strategy going into 2013. It's easier to gain wins filling in from the bottom than to make gains at the top. Assuming they still intend to pick up a real front line starter, this is a good approach... in theory at least.

Can we stop quoting this as a grand strategy? 2013 worked because the "fill in from the bottom" players largely exceeded expectations... By a lot in some cases (Vic, uehara)

If you think there is a reason to expect that again then fine. But the red Sox did not find the new market efficiency in 2013 and then stray from it in 2014. They had a bunch of guys perform near the top of their confidence interval. Many of the same guys hit the bottom last year. Hence 71 wins.

 

[PrimusSucks626]

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

 
Joe Kelly's FIP by year: 4.00 in 2012, 4.01 in 2013, 4.37 in 2014 (3.97 in St. Louis, 4.62 in Boston).
 
Wade Miley FIP by year: 5.07 in 2011 (in only 40 innings), 3.15 in 2012, 3.98 in both 2013 and 2014.
 
Joe Kelly has never pitched more than 124 major league innings. Miley has broken 190 in each of his three full seasons.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

How exactly do you go about deciding which of the nine to start with? How long do you let them go if they don't succeed? How do you decide who goes second?

 
Also this idea that the hypothetical innings pitched we're going to split among THE NINE so seamlessly ignores that the more you have to switch all the more poor performance you are, by definition, absorbing. The Red Sox cashed in two of THE NINE for a cost-controlled better bet. He's acknowledging this... like it's a bad thing?

 

[CSteinhardt]

I like the idea of getting Miley.  I don't really care what number you care to slot him at -- a rotation of 5 Wade Mileys would make us a strong contender, and given his age, heavy ground ball profile, and history, he's IMO more likely to overperform than to underperform over the next few years.  
 
Instinctively, I still don't like the trade, because I'm still really high on Rubby and suspect that the better of Webster and DLR will end up being a very good starting pitcher, and also because it comes at the opportunity cost of figuring out which of our younger pitchers should end up with a rotation spot in the long-term.  I'd be more comfortable with the trade if the rotation ends up being Miley, Kelly, Buchholz, and at most one more experienced pitcher, leaving one or two spots open for rookies depending upon the quality of Buchholz early in the year.  If we end up getting two experienced starters, I really hope that Buchholz leaves as part of the acquisition cost, because one of the major goals of the 2015 season as an organization has to be figuring out which of our strong AAA rotation are keepers as starters, which are keepers in the bullpen, and which have no long-term role with the Sox.  
 
Having said all of that, both Webster and DLR have been frustrating at times while showing potential, and at age 26, it made no sense to keep them if they weren't going to have a major league role this season.  So, if the talent evaluation is that neither one was going to break camp with the Sox, then this is a good decision -- I'd really like to have thought we could get more for the two, but I also think we have a keeper in Miley.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Joe Kelly has never put up an xFIP (or regular FIP) under 4.00. Miley in his 3 full seasons as a starter has never had an xFIP higher than 3.77. The difference between the two total in the past 3 seasons is 4.14 vs 3.67 for xFIP.
 
The difference isn't small.

 

[curly2]

You get rid of two of the many pitching prospects the Sox have who have the least upside.

De la Rosa absolutely had more upside than Workman and Ranaudo and probably Johnson. You can argue that it looks like he would never REACH that upside, and that's certainly a fair argument given his age and lack of a minor-league option.

I thought the potential was there for him to flourish in the pen like Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar did after washing out as starters.

I'd love for Miley to pull a McCarthy and turn it around leaving Arizona.

I also think we have to wait until we hear who the other guy going to the D-backs is yo judge the trade. Montas seemed like a throw-in in the Peavy trade but he looks like he could be a lot more.

 

[BoredViewer]

I feel like we're going to see about 180 innings of ERA 4.50 from Miley. That doesn't strike me as something I'd want to give up much value for. I would've liked to have seen another year from RDLR and Webster.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

 
Christ people, this isn't difficult. No, the Red Sox did not need starters. They did, and still do, need GOOD starters. Starters whose defining characteristic is that they're going to be significantly better than Joe Kelly. If you want to try to convince me that Wade Miley is that, go right ahead, I'd love to be convinced.

Wade Miley career FIP: 3.79
Joe Kelly career FIP: 4.11
 
is that significant? I don't know. League average over the last 3 years is 3.87.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Hopefully, people in Red Sox baseball ops never consider terms like "fourth starter" or "third starter".

Make decisions that improve the pitching staff. Then make another. And so on.

 

[Rasputin]

At the probable numbers that Miley will be able to? No.

 
No shit.
 
 

Some of them may be able to, sure. The two guys they traded didn't seem like great bets to. The NINE you listed are a mix of equally enigmatic SPs, guys that are best in the BP or guys that aren't ready for thge show.

How many games would you like them to piss away trying to find out which is the guy that can do it? In what is shaping up to be a close divison, how long of a leash do you give each to show he's the guy? How many BP arms are worth blowing out in the process?

It's not about NINE guys combing to average 23 IP to replicate the production. It's about the odds that you are able to find one of them to before you've done too much damage to the cause, if you even can at all.

 
To reiterate, no shit. The Sox have a ton of young pitchers. They have to figure out where those guys are going to fit on a major league team. They can't do it without giving them major league innings.
 
If we get two guys at the top of the rotation and everyone is healthy enough when the 2016 season starts, what are you doing with Henry Owens and Eduardo Rodriguez? If all they have had is the occasional spot start due to an injury, you haven't seen enough to evaluate them, and you have five established starters in the positions they could fill. You've gotten no closer to getting a rotation spot filled by a good young pitcher which is ridiculous when you have so many of them that need and deserve that opportunity.
 
I don't think one rotation spot is too much to ask to figure out which of the young guys is going to stick and which aren't.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I wonder if they're considering using Kelly as a reliever and still giving the last spot in the rotation to the kids.

 

[nvalvo]

How exactly do you go about deciding which of the nine to start with? How long do you let them go if they don't succeed? How do you decide who goes second?

 
ALSO: We have nine pitchers. None have anything to prove in AA. 
 
One goes to the rotation, let's say Webster. Workman goes to the pen. That leaves a Pawtucket rotation of Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, Ranaudo, Johnson, RDLR and Escobar. Hmm. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Can we stop quoting this as a grand strategy? 2013 worked because the "fill in from the bottom" players largely exceeded expectations... By a lot in some cases (Vic, uehara)

If you think there is a reason to expect that again then fine. But the red Sox did not find the new market efficiency in 2013 and then stray from it in 2014. They had a bunch of guys hit near the top of their confidence interval. Many of the same guys hit the bottom last year. Hence 71 wins.

I didn't say it was a grand strategy, just that they targeted improvements over the weakest parts of their roster. A lot of things were at play in 2013, but the team clearly wasn't looking to make a lot of gains on the higher end of the WAR spectrum that winter.

This year is a different story with Pablo and Hanley, and not to mention their interest in pitchers like Lester and Shields. That doesn't mean an improvement over the weakest starting pitcher on the roster can't be significant just because the acquisition isn't a front of the rotation guy.

Ras is foaming at the mouth because Miley isn't enough of an upgrade for his tastes. I was just trying to illustrate that bringing up the floor is as effective, if not more so, than raising the ceiling.