Sox acquire Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Wilson, and Gabe Speier

[Red(s)HawksFan]

On a side note to this...........there are 5 open spots now on the 40 man roster if I'm calculating correctly.
 
Rule 5 draft is coming up also.

 
Since the Rule 5 eligible players have already been added to the 40-man for protection (deadline was Nov 20), I assume you're suggesting that they may add a Rule 5 pick, which unless it's a reliever wouldn't make a ton of sense since they don't have a lot of flexibility with the 25-man roster.  Anyone in particular you think is a target?

 

[turnthe2]

 
Well - they wiil have to add Miley and Porcello so it's down to three

Sorry, I stand corrected. Still they have room to play with the roster now.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Awesome. Exactly the way we want them thinking about it. 
 
Zimmerman, Cueto or Shields and we have ourselves a front-runner for 2015. Ross would be acceptable but less exciting.

 
Ross is very intriguing. 3.25 FIP over his last 320 IP. He struck out 24% last year, generated ground balls at a 57% clip, so it's not exactly a Petco mirage. 
 
Fastball touches 96, 97 mph. Concerns? 41.2% slider rate. Might be worth rolling the dice on, as he's under control until 2018.

 

[turnthe2]

 
Since the Rule 5 eligible players have already been added to the 40-man for protection (deadline was Nov 20), I assume you're suggesting that they may add a Rule 5 pick, which unless it's a reliever wouldn't make a ton of sense since they don't have a lot of flexibility with the 25-man roster.  Anyone in particular you think is a target?

Yes, that was what I was getting at. Personally don't know who to target. Anyone have suggestions/thoughts on Rule 5 targets?

 

[pjr]

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
· 2m 2 minutes ago
going with cespedes to detroit are rhp alex wilson and a lefthanded minor-league pitcher. porcello to red sox.

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/543069007096459265

 

[DavidTai]

Hell, the rule 5 draft starts in an hour, we'd find out then anyway.
 
Cody Martin of the Braves, maybe?

 

[Brianish]

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
· 2m 2 minutes ago
going with cespedes to detroit are rhp alex wilson and a lefthanded minor-league pitcher. porcello to red sox.

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/543069007096459265

 
Send them Kukuk!
 
(Seriously though, my money's on Escobar). 

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
· 2m 2 minutes ago
going with cespedes to detroit are rhp alex wilson and a lefthanded minor-league pitcher. porcello to red sox.

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/543069007096459265

 
If low level LHP prospect could be Jhonathan Diaz or Gabe Speier.  Or maybe Cody Kukuk!

 

[k-factory]

Doesn't say low minors or starter. 
 
Could see them send Britton and open another 40 man slot.

 

[bosockboy]

Just sign Shields now and they've got their pitching without surrendering anything of value whatsoever.

Shields/Buchholz/Porcello/Miley/Kelly.

 

[mloyko54]

Not a top 30 prospect going back to Detroit according to Alex Speier 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Just sign Shields now and they've got their pitching without surrendering anything of value whatsoever.

Shields/Buchholz/Porcello/Miley/Kelly.

I would prefer
Hamels/Shields/Porcello/Buchholz/Wright

But that's just me. Use Miley and Kelly as Hamels ammo.

 

[jose melendez]

Sorry why do people love Porcello so much.  He had a nice year last year, and he's improved each year over the last five, but last year is the only year he's had an ERA+ above 96.  Even last year his WAR was -.1 and his best ever WAR was .1. 
 
Maybe the upward trends are good.  But I see a guy who, unless he pitches much better than he ever has, is a 3 at best.
 
I would have liked more for Cespedes.

 

[Koufax]

I feel glad for Alex Wilson.  He's paid his dues and always been a solid performer but never really had a chance, what with all the higher-profile pitchers in the system.   Maybe he'll get some major league miles in Detroit.  Good for him, and a good use of the resource by the Sox. 

 

[repole]

Sorry why do people love Porcello so much.  He had a nice year last year, and he's improved each year over the last five, but last year is the only year he's had an ERA+ above 96.  Even last year his WAR was -.1 and his best ever WAR was .1. 
 
Maybe the upward trends are good.  But I see a guy who, unless he pitches much better than he ever has, is a 3 at best.
 
I would have liked more for Cespedes.

 
Are you looking at his hitting WAR by any chance?

 

[inter tatters]

Sorry why do people love Porcello so much.  He had a nice year last year, and he's improved each year over the last five, but last year is the only year he's had an ERA+ above 96.  Even last year his WAR was -.1 and his best ever WAR was .1. 
 
Maybe the upward trends are good.  But I see a guy who, unless he pitches much better than he ever has, is a 3 at best.
 
I would have liked more for Cespedes.

The defense behind him, quite simply.
 
The Tigers' defense has been the worst in the Majors in Porcello's time in the league. His BABIP went down dramatically last year, due to an upswing in the Tigers defence, that should be even better here.

 

[Corsi]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  16s16 seconds ago
Alex Wilson will go to Tigers in Porcello/Cespedes deal, source confirms @alexspeier report.

 

[chrisfont9]

 
He's had a few solid years and he's only 25. He's pitched behind the worst infield defense in the major leagues.

His worst year the opposing BABIP was a rather robust .345. This past season it was a more typical .299, and we saw him at 116 ERA+, 4 WAR, or whatever reasonably encouraging metric you prefer. So yes, with a good defense behind him it stands to reason that he'll be effective.

 

[Corsi]

Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier  7s8 seconds ago
Gabe Speier is the lower levels lefty heading to Detroit.

 

[burstnbloom]

Sorry why do people love Porcello so much.  He had a nice year last year, and he's improved each year over the last five, but last year is the only year he's had an ERA+ above 96.  Even last year his WAR was -.1 and his best ever WAR was .1. 
 
Maybe the upward trends are good.  But I see a guy who, unless he pitches much better than he ever has, is a 3 at best.
 
I would have liked more for Cespedes.

 
I'm not sure where you're getting this from, Jose.  He has been a 3 WAR pitcher for the past three seasons and he's an extreme ground ball pitcher who has been playing in front of the worst IF defense in baseball.  There is a lot of reason to be optimistic about his projections playing for the Red Sox. 

 

[mloyko54]

Gabe Speier is the low level LHP going to Detroit. Coming off TJ Surgery, but showed good stuff late in 2014 after his recovery. 2013 Draft pick. 

 

[jose melendez]

 
Are you looking at his hitting WAR by any chance?

Yes.  It's the most critical meassure of an AL pitcher.
 
So, screw up by me. 
 
And actually, the WAR trends are pretty encouraging.

 

[benhogan]

I would prefer
Hamels/Shields/Porcello/Buchholz/Wright

But that's just me. Use Miley and Kelly as Hamels ammo.

not your worst suggestion, but probably won't work to have Shields + Hamels due to age and salary.
 
I'd think there is a 50/50 chance we see Hamels OR Shields.

 

[mloyko54]

Peter Gammons @pgammo

@pgammo Sox source says to expect one more starter.

 

[JimD]

 
Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo  28s28 seconds ago
Porcello for Cespedes and Alex Wilson tool for Boston pitching rebuild. Can sign Porcello has Vermont farm
 

 
Peter needs to leave his smartphone somewhere where his cat can't get at it.

 

[smastroyin]

 
Pretty nice draft class too - Porcello went at number 4, after Price, Wieters and Heyward, and before Maybin and MadBum.  Sox took our old friend Lars Anderson at 25.

 
No they didn't.  Lars was drafted in the 18th round the previous year.  Sox did not have a 1st round choice that year due to signing JD Drew.  Their first pick was Nick Hagadone in the supplemental round, number 55.  Bumgarner also came out of that first round, BTW.

 

[pockmeister]

 
No they didn't.  Lars was drafted in the 11th (?) round.  Sox did not have a 1st round choice that year due to signing JD Drew.  Their first pick was Nick Hagadone in the supplemental round, number 55.  Bumgarner also came out of that first round, BTW.

 
Apologies.  Bad reading of the link provided by me - multi-tasking!  I'll amend the original rubbish that I posted.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

not your worst suggestion, but probably won't work to have Shields + Hamels due to age and salary.
 
I'd think there is a 50/50 chance we see Hamels OR Shields.

I disagree on this because then Buchholz becomes expendable after next year on a bunch of club options. So essentially you lock up your top 3 of Shields Hamels and Porcello then let the kids develop as the 4 and 5. Plus with Napoli Uehara and Ortiz coming off the books within 2 seasons its highly possible.

 

[Wingack]

Great trade and I like how the Sox are assembling their staff, but I am kind of surprised by the reaction to Porcello here, it was not this positive when he was being discussed a week or so ago.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Sorry why do people love Porcello so much.  He had a nice year last year, and he's improved each year over the last five, but last year is the only year he's had an ERA+ above 96.  Even last year his WAR was -.1 and his best ever WAR was .1. 
 
Maybe the upward trends are good.  But I see a guy who, unless he pitches much better than he ever has, is a 3 at best.
 
I would have liked more for Cespedes.

If you believe FIP theory he's a solid #2 at least getting victimized by poor infield defense available at an age and a price when normally pitchers of his caliber are not.

 

[OCST]

Sorry why do people love Porcello so much.  He had a nice year last year, and he's improved each year over the last five, but last year is the only year he's had an ERA+ above 96.  Even last year his WAR was -.1 and his best ever WAR was .1. 
 
Maybe the upward trends are good.  But I see a guy who, unless he pitches much better than he ever has, is a 3 at best.
 
I would have liked more for Cespedes.

 
I like the durability.  Never fewer than 29 starts in 6 years.  

 

[In my lifetime]

I disagree on this because then Buchholz becomes expendable after next year on a bunch of club options. So essentially you lock up your top 3 of Shields Hamels and Porcello then let the kids develop as the 4 and 5. Plus with Napoli Uehara and Ortiz coming off the books within 2 seasons its highly possible.

 
This is just not realistic. The RS will not be adding 2 top of rotation starters after adding Porcello and Wade. Their AAV would top 220M, they would then have a glut of starting pitching and the RS are not the only team looking for top ot the rotation starters.  I know it would be nice if the RS had a roster composed entirely of 3+ WAR players, but that is not going to happen either.

 

[Leather]

 
Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo  28s28 seconds ago
Porcello for Cespedes and Alex Wilson tool for Boston pitching rebuild. Can sign Porcello has Vermont farm
 

 
People keep harping on the Vermont farm, but Porcello is also from Morristown, NJ, which is only about 4 hours down the highway from Boston.   

 

[mBiferi]

No Latos nor Cueto for the Tigers
 
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/543078728557817856

 

[Drek717]

Great trade and I like how the Sox are assembling their staff, but I am kind of surprised by the reaction to Porcello here, it was not this positive when he was being discussed a week or so ago.

Probably due to the growing awareness that the Sox see something in mid-20's groundball heavy pitchers.  The fact that a clear trait is obviously being targeted indicates a clear direction and as a result builds faith in the FO's plans.

 

[KillerBs]

This deal was so critical to the off-season. I was afraid the Cespedes market was collapsing with teams preying on our desperation -- post Lester -- demanding unpalatable add-ins before giving up the mid-level SP the Sox needed to exchange for YC. 
 
Plus I think I prefer Porcello to any of the non-Cueto Reds options. Even Iwakuma's late season collapse had me concerned.  
 
And of course  dealing Cespedes was the virtually required first step to make sense of the OF. We are down to 6 viable OF candidates, a small over supply which allows for a trade (Nava for a RP?), but also can be solved by way of starting Castillo, Betts or Craig in AAA, or DLing Victorino if he is not ready to go. Some things starting to come into focus.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Joe Kelly is also a GB guy.  3 seems like a lot to be a coincidence.  Hopefully Xander is working on his defense.  

Hopefully Xander is renting. Hamels?

This staff decreases his value to our team and his bat is now a question mark. Marrero's value to us just skyrocketed and his bat isn't a question mark.....it's non-existent! Tough to have both Marrero and Christian in the lineup together but interesting nonetheless.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Great trade and I like how the Sox are assembling their staff, but I am kind of surprised by the reaction to Porcello here, it was not this positive when he was being discussed a week or so ago.

 
Porcello isn't a home run, but he's a solid line drive basehit.  He gives 200 innings of MLB-quality starting pitching.  To me what's different from last week is (1) We need 200 innings of competent starting pitching now.  If we'd spent $150 million on Lester, you maybe hope Rubby turns into a lottery ticket, but that didn't happen.  At this point we're in need of birds in the hand instead of the bush.  (2) We got him for almost nothing.  Lester got $165 million guaranteed.  He wasn't going to come back.  Giving him away to the As for a couple of months turns out not to made a difference, and the piece we got back for doing that has now been turned into competent starting pitching.  
 
In short, while I don't love the player, I love the deal.

 

[67WasBest]

Great trade and I like how the Sox are assembling their staff, but I am kind of surprised by the reaction to Porcello here, it was not this positive when he was being discussed a week or so ago.

The unwashed have been saved?
 
Seriously, Porcello's name wasn't sexy and I think a lot of folks didn't realize he basically spent his developmental years pitching in MLB.  When those with negative reactions looked through a new lens, they saw what the early adopters did, a guy who is an ideal answer to what they are trying to do

 

[E5 Yaz]

Farrell was right ... Cespedes can play anywhere

 

[The Boomer]

Probably due to the growing awareness that the Sox see something in mid-20's groundball heavy pitchers.  The fact that a clear trait is obviously being targeted indicates a clear direction and as a result builds faith in the FO's plans.

 
It's like the Sox are assembling a pitching staff of Bob Stanleys (who Porcello physically reminds me of).  That's a contender's pitchers with good IF defense.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier  7s8 seconds ago
Gabe Speier is the lower levels lefty heading to Detroit.
 

 
Alex might have felt a twinge typing that.
 
 
Nice work by Ben. If this is indeed a deliberate strategy to pursue ground-ball pitchers, the Sox better be right that MLB isn't going to have the umps go back to the tighter strike zone.

 

[KillerBs]

I thought everyone's reaction when Porcello for Cespedes first emerged as a possibility was "yes please."
 
Porcello is not world beater, but Cespedes isn't either and was completely redundant to us.
 
Also Porcello certainly has improved markedly since mid-2013.

 

[Wingack]

The unwashed have been saved?
 
Seriously, Porcello's name wasn't sexy and I think a lot of folks didn't realize he basically spent his developmental years pitching in MLB.  When those with negative reactions looked through a new lens, they saw what the early adopters did, a guy who is an ideal answer to what they are trying to do

I think the deal makes all the sense in the world, but there was a contingent that thought they could get Zimmermann or some other ace for him.

 

[Frisbetarian]

I'm bummed to see Gabe Speier go. The kid had a 31 - 4 K/BB ratio in 33 2/3 post TJ surgery innings for the GCL Sox last season, and 3 of the 4 walks were in his last (playoff) start. BR and MiLB list him as a righty, but he is a left handed pitcher. Not a huge deal, but he was a ML binky for me.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I think the deal makes all the sense in the world, but there was a contingent that thought they could get Zimmermann or some other ace for him.

 
I don't think anyone here thought they could get Zimmermann for him unless other significant parts were included.  The real question was whether Washington wanted another OF.

 

[Traut]

Trading 11 meaningless Jon Lester starts for a year of Rick Porcello? Yes, please.
 
Porcello threw 204 innings last year posting and ERA+ of 116. Moves like these are why the Red Sox front office has been able to win 3 World Series championships in 10 years. Great move by the Red Sox. They need to get innings from major league starters. The 2015 Red Sox are going to be very good. 

 

[GilaMonster]

I absolutely love this deal. Cespedes is a guy that had no role on this team and you got a solid #3 in return. I'm a bit disappointed the right-handed power didn't command a little bit more, but I am a big Porcello fan and I curious to see what playing behind a good defense can do. 
 
This basically gives the Red Sox a solid rotation of #3ish starters and according to Steamer projections, a top 10 rotation in baseball along with the #1 offense.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9425,6893,3815,2717
 
I know we fall in love with the upside of pitchers like Cueto,Fister, or Latos, but Porcello has been just as good.

 

[jk333]

The defense behind him, quite simply.
 
The Tigers' defense has been the worst in the Majors in Porcello's time in the league. His BABIP went down dramatically last year, due to an upswing in the Tigers defence, that should be even better here.

 
Dramatically? In 2012 he was unlucky (344 BABIP) but other years he ranged from .307-.316; that's only slightly high. Last year he had a .299 BABIP, the Sox shouldn't be expecting that number to drop much further as pitcher BABIPs tend to range from .290-.310.
 
Porcello has improved but his greatest asset is his durability while providing average production.  The trade makes sense but isn't a great win. He's a 3.4-3.75 ERA starter based upon his FIP; that's good for about 40-50th best.
 
Edit: Let me add some for context to that last sentence...
In 2014, 120 pitchers pitched more than 130 innings. There are 150 "starting" spots in MLB. So, each team had ~4 "starters".
 
The breakdown on ERA was:
25th best - 2.93
50th - 3.46 
Top 75 - 3.72
Top 100 - 4.39
119th - 5.44
 
So, based on STEAMER projections for Buchholz, Kelly, Miley, the Red Sox have approximately the ~90th, 110th and ~80th best starting pitchers.  

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I can't be the only one who misread the title and wondered how the Sox could send Alex Speier to Detroit.
 
But hey, Porcello's aboard, and this is a really good trade.  And that doesn't even consider whether the Sox can negotiate an extension.
 
In 2015, Cespedes+Lester is likely to be a big step down from Hanley+Porcello, for a roughly equivalent AAV.