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Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by JohnnyTheBone, Jul 31, 2017.
Per Lou Merloni on WEEI
For three prospects
Evan DrellichVerified account @EvanDrellich 1m1 minute ago
Sources confirm Red Sox and Mets are close to getting this official. Addison Reed for three minor league pitchers.
3 pitchers, so no Chavis which is nice
Speier confirms 3 pitchers
Three pitchers according to various reporters
Hopefully no Mata.
I really hope Groome is not involved, and I don't know the system nearly as well as many of you, but with the prices paid for pitching rentals I don't see another guy that could headline a package
For 20 innings, I'm confident in saying it's not Groome.
Speier says no Groome or Mata, Mayo says Gerson Bautista included
One of the less interesting Rule 5 eligible guys -- big arm (huge fastball), but definitely a reliever and a lot of stuff to figure out. Very much okay with him being in the deal.
Nishek got the Rockies #21 and a couple guys in the 30s. Fireable offense if Dombrowski went anywhere near the top 10.
It's also the Mets we are talking about here. They really couldn't get that lucky.
Gerson is really raw at 22 years old but he can hit 100 on the radar guns. I wonder if Jalen Beeks is gone. I could see Darwinzon, Shawaryn, Dedgar Jimenez being among the other guys included.
Callahan is another.
Per Jonathan Mayo
Another @Redsox relief prospect, Jamie Callahan, is another apparently headed to @Mets for A. Reed. Red Sox top 30:
I would think he's the best one going.
Callahan, Bautista, and Stephen Nogosek per Speier. Nogosek, for me, takes it from "easy win" to "questionable," but relievers being fungible, I guess I shouldn't complain.
I like Nogosek but he's only been in relief. I think it's fairly even overall.
It's Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista, and Stephen Nogosek to the Mets in the agreement for Addison Reed.
So two of three were Rule 5 guys. Callahan was maybe worth rostering.
Solid deal. Wish the team could have extracted Bruce but that probably would have costed a bit more.
Nogosek looks like an arm injury waiting to happen. I think this trade is a huge win. I doubt any of those 3 will have seasons nearly as good as Reed.
Seems like a quantity over quality trade. Its tough to dislike it. A stable 8th inning guy a huge need.
Reed's flyball numbers this year are strange. Here's to hoping the transition to Fenway isn't a rough one.
There goes Dombroski giving away the Farm system again! He should be fired!!
Okay, saved us all the trouble. I like it. Nice job Trader Dave.
Strikes me as exactly the kind of deal that is "whatever...fine" now and will then be lamented next year and beyond when we're wondering why the Sox can't find any cheap depth bullpen pieces from their own system. I hate reliever rentals overall but, again, whatever...fine.
Anecdotally, I asked my Mets fan buddy what he thought of him. "You'll know three pitches in whether or not he has it or he doesn't." Sounds oddly like the guy he is replacing.
I generally agree with this, except cheap depth bullpen pieces is like the one area where they actually have a bit of a surplus in the system.
Once again, this feels like Dombrowski overpaying to get "his guy" (A.J. Ramos cost the Mets far less than Reed is costing us), but he's overpaying from the right areas, so it'll come down to whether he's right about Reed being the right guy.
But but Dave never does the small trades only blockbusters..LIK
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Reed really was one of the best relievers in baseball last year.
2.6 WAR (even with Zach Britton) 10.55 k/9. 1.97 FIP.
He hasn't been as good this year, but I would think he'd get a boost for AL teams not seeing him much.
They still have plenty of bullpen pieces on the farm. It even looks like the one with the highest ceiling may have figured something out over the last month. Jake Cosart has struck out 14 and walked 4 over his last 11.2ip while giving up 8 hits. Considering he walked 32 and struck out 21 in his first 24.1, it's encouraging. They also have Williams Jerez, Chandler Sheppard, Ty Buttrey, Noe, Martin and a few SP who should arugably be converted to MR (Owens, Ball, possibly Darwinzon, Jimenez, Lakins).
I get none of those guys instill confidence but they are the same caliber prospects as the ones we just moved.
Here are summaries on all three from Soxprosects.
Summation: Potential seventh-inning reliever profile. Has made significant progress since his move to the bullpen in 2015. Potential for plus-to-better fastball and above-average splitter with a cutter that can keep hitters honest. Upside depends on consistency with fastball command and continued development of secondary pitches.
Summation: Projects as a middle reliever. Potential for two above-average pitches in fastball and slider, both of which show bat-missing ability. Effort in delivery and lack of third pitch limit him to bullpen role, but could move quickly if the organization wanted to push him aggressively.
Summation: Intriguing arm strength, but more of a lottery ticket at this point. Bullpen profile, but needs to physically mature as well as simplify and cleanup delivery. Has raw stuff to profile in a late-inning role, but extremely risky prospect with injury and command profile concerns due to delivery. Long way to go developmentally.
Or maybe he might be a guy whose current stuff doesn't translate to the AL (I know, he was w the CWS) like we've seen numerous times over the years. We just don't know. Trading for middle relief pitching at the deadline always feels like a crapshoot.
I still think they need a bat. Even Nunez thus far hitting well seems to have woken a few of the other guys up.
So acquiring Reed replaces Smith not being ready. When Kelly returns, and if we get anything out of Smith, we should have a really good pen the rest of the way.
I imagine Hembree and Abad are the two odd men out here. Workman looks like he's fully back.
I really like the deal, but some interesting stats to keep track of as he now becomes our 8th inning guy.
-88% LOB%. Bound to regress at some point, and not in the good way.
- His fastball pitch value was 17.9 last year, is only 3.3 this year. A little scary seeing as everyone was worried about Reed getting overworked by Collins this year.
He's an out and out upgrade in the 8th. Would love to see us keep his usage down so he can reclaim some of the stamina that seems to have hit him hard this year.
Any word on who he is replacing on the 25? Robby Scott? Doug Fister? They need a spot on the 40 too so releasing Fister accomplishes both. Josh Rutledge back to Colorado as well.
I think the only way the Sox end up regretting this trade is in the off chance Gerson reaches his ceiling and I don't see that happening. If it does, only the most bitter would complain about the least unlikely outcome happening. Callahan and Nogosek strike me as serviceable but replaceable.
My fondest Addison Reed memory is seeing him give up a walkoff to Cody Ross in what was probably the high-water mark of the Bobby V. era. Also saw Joan Rivers at that game.
Ya, it is always a crapshoot. I'll be disappointed if that's all they do, but I look at it as them having a surplus because they have a million good relievers ahead of him. At best he would have been an up and down guy next year.
I mean Callahan was the best guy they gave up and is the 15th-20th best prospect in a bottom tier farm system. The other guys are 2+ years away.
The Cubs gave up their top prospect for Justin Wilson and two months of a back up catcher.
That's all fair. I'm admittedly often at war with myself over Dombrowski. The "he always gets his man!" aspect is appealing on a visceral level. You always know he's going to do something to try to help his team win the World Series if they're in a decent enough position to do so. But the sort of extended GFIN phase that his teams find themselves in creates a "well, we've come this far we might as well keep the train rolling" process that makes things really painful if you can't win it in the targeted window (in this case, during Sale's time here).
As insane as it is, Fister is the listed starter for tonight's loss, I mean game.
So it will take some maneuvering to make him the answer to your question.
I hope Dave reads Reed's medicals charts closely, as it would kind of suck if this guy's an inning away from blowing out an elbow.
Now now maybe Fister will surprise all of us....
Well I mean I think this team needs to get an upgrade over Fister. Honestly, even if Price isn't out as long as last time 2-4 more starts of this guy is 2-4 starts too many.
Yeah, his K/9 rate is down from 10.6 last year to 8.8 (and it's actually been falling significantly over the course of this season as well), and he lost a tick off his fastball compared to last year. Hopefully it's nothing but SSS variation, but we will see.
Barring a trade, I don't know why Jalen Beeks hasn't been seriously considered unless they see him as nothing more than a MR. He's going to have to be added to the 40 after this season anyway and he's definitely going to be protected.
Someone bump the TJS threas, because we all know what's gonna happen now.
Solid trade, though.
His K rate is more in line with his career than 2016. He struck out 30.0% in 2016 and it's down to 24.0% this year. From 2011-2015, it was 24.4%. Since the beginning of June, it's only 18.4%. His BB rate is a career low 3.0% atm.
DD addresses a glaring need in the 8th. Hopefully, Kelly is back soon and can take the 7th and Barnes can be moved to the 6th or 7th where Kelly pitches the previous day. Carson Smith is a wild card for the pen if he can be back in September. We still need a bat but not convinced that will happen by the deadline. We should have signed Encarnacion over Moreland in the off season.
At this point, isn't Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson (if healthy) an upgrade over Fister? And they won't cost the team anything extra.