SoSH Survivor Pool - Week 1 Discussion

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Bill Barnwell has some candidates for teams that could do substantially worse than they did last year: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-2015-season-predictions-part-2-the-falling-stars/. Perhaps this might give us some insight so we can avoid doing what we did last year and staking 1/2 of our picks on teams that eventually won five or fewer games.
 

I understand your pick and it seems to me that from a strategy POV, putting all (or almost all) of the entries on one's best pick has the highest potential reward, particularly if the goal is to get 20 entries to week 2. As Tony and Pals said upthread, it's far easier to go 1-0 or 2-0 versus 6-0 or even (I would surmise) 5-1.

OTOH, you're basically putting five grand on the Dolphins to win.
 

I understand.

I won't always bet like this. Truthfully, I feel that people aren't giving the Dolphins their due in this thread, so I'm throwing all my votes behind them to get them more picks.

They're a good team, but due to scheduling, there really isn't a ton of weeks I'd be confident taking them. If they had more votes, I'd split my picks with more variety. They dont, so I didnt. I'm just trying to make us some cash, homie.

 

[Stitch01]

This is another reason why I think its better to try and vote on an overall slate than individual games, and that's not a knock at KFP because I thought of doing the exact same thing so you end up with this weird gaming the system type of vote.

 

[tonyandpals]

This is another reason why I think its better to try and vote on an overall slate than individual games, and that's not a knock at KFP because I thought of doing the exact same thing so you end up with this weird gaming the system type of vote.

 
FWIW, Drop KPs 20 votes to MIA moves them from a mid 5 to a high 4, or the matter of 1 pick (maybe)
 
edit: But point taken - I just dont know how the other way will work logistically

 

[Vegas Sox Fan]

Picks so far:
 
5.6 MIA
5.1 GB
4.2 NE
1.1 DAL
.65 MIN
.59 SEA
.35 NYJ
.35 PIH
.24 SD
.24 AZ
 
edit: Yes I did miss AZ for a silly reason...These should be correctish.

 
It seems there should be thresholds. If you throw out anything less than 1 pick you are left with 16 picks. If you redistribute based on the remaining four teams proportions you get something like 7 for MIA, 6 for GB, 5 for NE and 2 for DAL. That seems reasonable to me.

 

[tims4wins]

 
It seems there should be thresholds. If you throw out anything less than 1 pick you are left with 16 picks. If you redistribute based on the remaining four teams proportions you get something like 7 for MIA, 6 for GB, 5 for NE and 2 for DAL. That seems reasonable to me.

 
I generally agree with this logic, although we could quibble on where the cutoff point should be, e.g., if a team is at 0.95 votes then maybe we should give it 1 entry. Maybe 0.75 should be the threshold?

 

[tonyandpals]

 
It seems there should be thresholds. If you throw out anything less than 1 pick you are left with 16 picks. If you redistribute based on the remaining four teams proportions you get something like 7 for MIA, 6 for GB, 5 for NE and 2 for DAL. That seems reasonable to me.

 
Agreed. We did that last year. I believe the threshold was a bit loose, but close to 1 as possible.

 

[Stitch01]

 
FWIW, Drop KPs 20 votes to MIA moves them from a mid 5 to a high 4, or the matter of 1 pick (maybe)
 
edit: But point taken - I just dont know how the other way will work logistically

It wouldn't be easy, we'd have to free our inner anarchists in some ways. You'd have to have someone each week lead the discussion and try to synthesize the discussion and people's viewpoints into an overall strategy and then tweak it from there until there was a consensus and no strenuous objections. But it probably will lead to more strategic decisions than individuals picking individual games will, which likely will involve us mostly picking with the crowd. We're going to have to do a little bit of art vs. voting anyways as we progress because you have to start deciding which picks go on which trees.

Im fine with the way we do it too, I hope we win but this isn't a money making exercise at heart.

 

[chief1]

My picks would be appropriated as follows:
 
Miami 8
GB 6
Dallas 3
Minn 2
NYJ 2

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Appropriated is a fantastic word. Well done sir.

 

[tonyandpals]

My picks would be appropriated as follows:
 
Miami 8
GB 6
Dallas 3
Minn 2
NYJ 2

 
It's also appropriate, because we are up to 21 sheets too.  So if anyone wants, they can add a vote. I don't think it will matter too much as we'll have to hash through the last ones anyway.

 

[tims4wins]

My one extra vote goes to Miami

 

[tonyandpals]

Up to 7800 entries or 585k

 

[FL4WL3SS]

My one extra vote goes to NYJ.

 

[crystalline]

 
FWIW, Drop KPs 20 votes to MIA moves them from a mid 5 to a high 4, or the matter of 1 pick (maybe)
 
edit: But point taken - I just dont know how the other way will work logistically

You could:
Mon-Wed: let anyone propose a full set of picks for the week and justify it. Hopefully people would explain how they are considering future weeks in making their slate.
Thu: thread votes on full slates for that week. Majority vote wins.

 

[tims4wins]

I like that idea - get 3-5 proposals and see how everyone thinks.

One thing to keep in mind: as the weeks go on we will need to allocate time to figuring out which picks go with which entry

 

[tonyandpals]

22 sheets is our final count. I've locked us in there, no more shares for sale. Keep adding votes if you like, but 1 isn't really going to shift things much.

 

[j44thor]

NE - 5
GB - 8
MIA - 6
NYJ - 3

 

[tonyandpals]

We're at 4.6 on the Pats right now, so it looks like we'll have 5 going on them tonight.

 

[AirborneSas]

GB - 9
MIA - 9
NE - 4
 
x2 shares

 

[tonyandpals]

Pool is up to 8400 or 630k

 

[glennhoffmania]

Would it make sense to have a Google doc where everyone can enter their votes and it could keep a running count of the percentages?  There could be a separate tab for each week.  This would allow everyone to see how the votes are going in real time and would save Tony some time and effort.  I've never set one up so don't know if there's a way to restrict who has access to modify the data.  If not I guess this wouldn't work.

 

[tonyandpals]

Would it make sense to have a Google doc where everyone can enter their votes and it could keep a running count of the percentages?  There could be a separate tab for each week.  This would allow everyone to see how the votes are going in real time and would save Tony some time and effort.  I've never set one up so don't know if there's a way to restrict who has access to modify the data.  If not I guess this wouldn't work.

 
I appreciate it, but it's really not much time. As the picks come in, I enter them and the sheet has a bunch of calcs that does the rest.  I can give updates daily on the %s, but would almost rather people not know and just vote as if they were their own.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

So Tony - are we locked on five picks for NE?  I'm just curious.
 
Everyone up there keep dry - I hear there might be inches of rain falling along the 95 corridor tonight.

 

[tims4wins]

My 22nd vote would go to Philly

 

[tonyandpals]

Yes 5 locked on pats
 
edit 8600+ close to 650k

 

[axx]

I am voting for the Fish.

 

[chief1]

my 22nd pick would be added to Miami. 
 

My picks would be appropriated as follows:
 
Miami 8
GB 6
Dallas 3
Minn 2
NYJ 2

my 22nd pick would be added to Miami (9)

 

[tonyandpals]

I am voting for the Fish.

 
Hey Axx - this is only if you bought in @ $25 a share. If I missed you, let me know.

 

[tonyandpals]

Any guesses on how many of the 8700 will be on the Pats tonight?
 
I'm going w/ just under 10% @ 850 

 

[tims4wins]

Is it a NE centric pool? If so I'd guess closer to 20% than 10%

 

[tonyandpals]

The guy who runs it is in NJ.

 

[tims4wins]

Then I'm with you. 750-850

 

[tonyandpals]

1096 on the Pats
1 on Pitt
 
out of 8900 so 12% ish

 

[axx]

Hey Axx - this is only if you bought in @ $25 a share. If I missed you, let me know.

 
Oh no, I am not gambling. I'm too cheap for that :buddy:

 

[tonyandpals]

Good start!

 

[tims4wins]

Indeed. We can use those Pats entries on Pittsburgh at home next week vs SF

 

[Stitch01]

Lol at whoever picked Pittsburgh. There is contrarian and there is wrong.

 

[tims4wins]

T&P, where do the %s stand as of today? We need to allocate the remaining 17 entries. Seems something like 8 GB, 8 MIA, 1 DAL?

 

[tonyandpals]

%s to picks (I've left off anything under half a pick)
 
GB - 6.133 
MIA - 6.133
DAL - 1.558
MIN - .633
NYJ - .584
 
With 17 remaining, my spread would be
8-8-1 or 8-7-2 (on MIA or GB. Not don't really have a preference at this point)
 
I dont like picking more than 3-4 games a week. I look at it as: If we're going to lose 8 on GB, that's shitty.  If we lose 9 on them, it's slightly more shitty. But I think the chance of all 9 on GB winning are better than the 1 hitting on MIN or NYJ.  Diversifying 1 pick on something that barely registered in the votes doesn't do it for me.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

%s to picks (I've left off anything under half a pick)
 
GB - 6.133 
MIA - 6.133
DAL - 1.558
MIN - .633
NYJ - .584
 
With 17 remaining, my spread would be
8-8-1 or 8-7-2 (on MIA or GB. Not don't really have a preference at this point)
 
I dont like picking more than 3-4 games a week. I look at it as: If we're going to lose 8 on GB, that's shitty.  If we lose 9 on them, it's slightly more shitty. But I think the chance of all 9 on GB winning are better than the 1 hitting on MIN or NYJ.  Diversifying 1 pick on something that barely registered in the votes doesn't do it for me.

Agreed. My extra pick goes to GB.

That's right.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Good start!

 
If we win, can we give a partial share to Josh Scobee?

 

[Stitch01]

I want to diversify a little more so we have different tree options so Im going to go 
 
20-NYJ (3 shares)
 
EDITED

 

[glennhoffmania]

Mine goes to Dallas (I think I have 2 more picks since I originally only did 20).  I think Dallas is a solid pick and I'm surprised it's only around 1 or 2 slots right now.
 
So mine are Miami 5, NE 5, GB 5, Dallas 7.

 

[tims4wins]

I would be fine with ignoring Dallas and just going 8/9 with GB / Mia. Try to get all 22 thru.

Edit: with the thought that winning fewer games is easier

 

[tonyandpals]

I want to diversify a little more so we have different tree options so Im going to go 
 
20-NYJ (3 shares)
 
EDITED

 
I had you as Pats-4, so I put you in for 18 on the NYJ

 

[Stitch01]

So yeah that's right, good catch.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I would be fine with ignoring Dallas and just going 8/9 with GB / Mia. Try to get all 22 thru.

Edit: with the thought that winning fewer games is easier

 
I hear you but road teams still scare me.  Dallas at home seems as safe as GB and Miami on the road.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Picking Dallas is kind of silly when they're playing the Giants. That's a toss-up game. Those teams have played so close and so many times, I don't want to waste a pick on that game.
 
What is the rationale for picking Dallas?

 

[glennhoffmania]

I guess I disagree that Dallas is a toss up.  The latest line I saw was -6.  GB is -6.5.  Miami is -3.5.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Giants win, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Miami stumbles.  Given how bad Chicago supposedly looks that would be the biggest surprise of the three to me.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I don't really care what the lines are, those are meant to entice betting not predict who will win the game. These teams intimately know each other, it's a toss-up game if there ever was one.