This is my first time seeing this site. Any idea why the Cornell game is rated as a half star and the southern Illinois game is one and a half? I would have assumed the big discrepancies between his system and Vegas would lead to a max rating.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
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The star ratings are watchability and have nothing to do with the lines. The more stars, the better the game for a viewer to enjoy.
Sorry for not posting ahead of time but realized right before tip off there was an 11AM EST/10AM actual game time Bowling Green/Hampton 153.5 O/U. Looking ahead there's a holiday tourney kicking off in Hawaii later this week with some rise and shine games so something to keep an eye on.
@HomeRunBaker thoughts on taking some under Bucks 53.5 regular season wins +105 given this brutal upcoming schedule? Would do it tomorrow/Thursday after they take care of the Spurs tonight.
Spurs tonight, then host Orlando, then 8 of 9 games on the road before hosting Jazz, Celtics, warriors, kings, before another 3 game road trip.
Spurs tonight, then host Orlando, then 8 of 9 games on the road before hosting Jazz, Celtics, warriors, kings, before another 3 game road trip.
I was telling someone just yesterday that the Bucks have quietly been coming together. Personally I wouldn't touch that number either way. I've been very conservative on my futures this year.
Couple overnights for tomorrow.
* T-Wolves +3
* Rockets -3
Phillys stretch of cupcakes tend to cause teams to lose their edge which showed some in the Bulls loss. Embiid could get frustrated from not having everything come to him so easily and see weak side help that he hasn't had to deal with in weeks.
Rockets competing hard as usual under Ime and the Hawks road record is padded with wins over Pistons, Wizards and Spurs. Most of their quality wins came earlier in the year when they were much sharper. Gun to head, I'd rate Houston ahead of Wolves....I like them a lot here.
Leans would be Bulls +4.5 and possibly Kings should the Celtics win tonight (which I expect them to do).
* T-Wolves +3
* Rockets -3
Phillys stretch of cupcakes tend to cause teams to lose their edge which showed some in the Bulls loss. Embiid could get frustrated from not having everything come to him so easily and see weak side help that he hasn't had to deal with in weeks.
Rockets competing hard as usual under Ime and the Hawks road record is padded with wins over Pistons, Wizards and Spurs. Most of their quality wins came earlier in the year when they were much sharper. Gun to head, I'd rate Houston ahead of Wolves....I like them a lot here.
Leans would be Bulls +4.5 and possibly Kings should the Celtics win tonight (which I expect them to do).
Hopefully you avoided that Siena under. They scored 33% of their points in the last 8 mins of the game and a similar flurry right at the end of the 1st half.
Otherwise a relative stress free night on the other two.
Not a smash off a loss. Going to get a terrible number off an OT game. Sacramento will likely close -3 or a tick higher now as opposed to +2 with a Boston win.
I did one unit on Cornell, one on Southern Illinois, .25 on those two parlayed, and .5 on Sienna under, so all good!
Do you just pick out whichever games have the largest spread diff between Hasla and the lines?
I’ve just started playing with it and I’m not going to pretend it’s all that scientific yet.
What I’ve done so far is scan through and identify the handful of biggest differences between Hasla and the lines.
I then click into the previews of those looking for the biggest exploitable difference (i.e. One team has a super highly ranked Offense vs a really poor D etc). I’ve tried to stay away from match ups that by the analytics seem more even, even if the vegas line is off.
Here is an example of a game I’m targeting. Delaware -10 vs Hasla -19. If you read the game preview, Delaware has a sizable analytic advantage on Offense to exploit while also having the better D: https://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=5063&tid2=119&neut=0
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Celtics -1.5 coming off an OT game and no Tatum tonight…What am I missing?
These are usually the spots I like playing this side especially coming off a loss. I'm passing.
I'd look at some Live Under in Pistons/Jazz. 66 in 1Q with Olynyk and Bagley combining for 9-10.
Edit: Sorry for being short but tried getting this out as I'm logging in and clicking. Closed 233.5 got it after 1Q at 239.5 I see 241.5 now
Edit: Sorry for being short but tried getting this out as I'm logging in and clicking. Closed 233.5 got it after 1Q at 239.5 I see 241.5 now
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Got the perfect. I added more at 242.5 and not only got the perfect but even the preflop Under which was about half of each of the live clicks. Almost didn't post but glad I did and that you guys got it. F-Yeah!
Do you get alerts from here? Is there a more efficient way? I know I can text you but I mean for everyone. Live is always my bread and butter.
I have an alert on the thread, so if I’m on SoSH it lights up. Texts are always open too. Though I was driving a few weeks ago and “Gary (SoSH)” popped up and that was about a 5 minute eye roll from my wife…
Same. I have this thread watched and set for email alerts when there is a new post (it only emails you once until you reopen the thread so you don’t get spammed too badly).
Initial thought is that had the Wizards lost last night I'd be more inclined to play them in this spot. It's the key variable that would take me off them here but I was thinking this exact same thing yesterday when looking at future setups.
Running around w family stuff this morning but favorite look early is Under in Suns/Kings. Got bet early from 244.5 to 243 and I wholeheartedly agree with the move. The Suns pace and midrange propensity doesn't support these type of numbers. One way I like to view these is by adjusting 10 pts each way and asking self which is more likely....U233 is very real but to get to 253 so much would have to go perfect. Took it here bc it may crash later.
There was a discussion here around the Thanksgiving tourneys with early/neutral court unders.
This week I've been playing Noon or earlier starts:
Bowling Green/Hampton 153 actual 140
Samford/Valparaiso 157.5 actual 140
Western Illinois/Central Arkansas 144.5 actual 119
Nevada/Temple 147.5 actual 136
TCU/Old Dominion 146.5 actual 198
Hampton/Eastern Michigan 149.5 actual 141
Obviously small sample size and all that but it’s been a good week so far.
Speaking of afternoon basketball:
Bucks @ Knicks tomorrow at 12:30 in NY carries and O/U of 240.
also Celtics @ Clippers at 12:40 local time for 231.5.
Bucks @ Knicks tomorrow at 12:30 in NY carries and O/U of 240.
also Celtics @ Clippers at 12:40 local time for 231.5.
Bucks and Knicks run it back Christmas Day, again at noon. Should be another good look for the Under.
Anyone interested in some 2H college action I played some UCLA -5.5, who are down 43-28 at the half to Maryland, and some Under 70.5. The latter for half the stake as the side.
Jahmir Young has 23 in the 1H on 8-9 shooting including all 4 of his threes. Nobody else is involved in the offense. On the Bruin side only Sebastian Mack has more than 5 pts but aside from Young going nuclear I saw the Bruins outplay them and have an enormous advantage inside to exploit in the 2H.
Edit: I rarely watch college ball these days but nothing live in the NBA was interesting me so I found this potential gem.
Jahmir Young has 23 in the 1H on 8-9 shooting including all 4 of his threes. Nobody else is involved in the offense. On the Bruin side only Sebastian Mack has more than 5 pts but aside from Young going nuclear I saw the Bruins outplay them and have an enormous advantage inside to exploit in the 2H.
Edit: I rarely watch college ball these days but nothing live in the NBA was interesting me so I found this potential gem.
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More power to people who can watch college basketball today. UCLA threw the ball away 4 times on one possession only to save each one with the play ending on a midrange straight away bank shot. This never was an awful product but I'm ready to file this one next to the WNBA as unwatchable very soon.
Having said that, this 2H is playing out close to what I was expecting. Slow pace, tough defense, awful offense and UCLA clawing their way back.
Having said that, this 2H is playing out close to what I was expecting. Slow pace, tough defense, awful offense and UCLA clawing their way back.
Anyone see that in the Suns game? Clock inadvertently added a minute.
Live O/U was at 253. Ref gets called to the monitor by Secaucus and they remove the minute.
As it was happening, I snuck a bet in at U253. Live line immediately dropped to 246 when clock updated.
Live O/U was at 253. Ref gets called to the monitor by Secaucus and they remove the minute.
As it was happening, I snuck a bet in at U253. Live line immediately dropped to 246 when clock updated.
Both teams combined for 25 1Q FT's. I'm adding some live Under 248.5 after 1Q as the refs have to recognize this and begin to swallow.
Boom and Half Boom! Perfect read, 2H really shouldn't have even been a sweat. Cash and move on to the Kings/Suns Under that is looking great at the half especially the live add.
went to bed at halftime assuming the game would end around 230, and with the UCLA double wins in hand was in a good spot. Quickly checked the total during the night (225) and figured it went as expected. Opened this thread to discover the path was VERY different haha. Nice calls HRB.
We’re onto noon NBA now…
I know @HomeRunBaker mentioned the other day with regard to futures that it feels like the Bucks are starting to figure it out.
Typically, noon tips are auto plays. Any pause given the Bucks recent tear?
Personally I'll play my auto regardless for a portion of a normal play then I'll add accordingly but nothing here. Bucks has lost only 2 games since Thanksgiving, vs Indiana when they were actually trying to defend and in Chicago. They have been a train for nearly as long as the Clippers stretch lasted.
The Knicks match up badly against the Bucks and I think are 0-6 against them since last season. They have trouble with the size of Giannis/Lopez even with a healthy Mitchell Robinson, right now they’re down to the just signed Taj Gibson as backup center.
Uh, what? Losing team takes the ball and tries to score. This happens every game.
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