Sale to IL with “left shoulder inflammation.”

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Here’s a Kiké quote on Sale from earlier this season:
“He’s got everything going for him,” Hernández told reporters. “I’ve been on this team for three years and I haven’t played that much behind him. So to see him be the Chris Sale that I saw from afar, that I faced in the World Series in ’18 and all those years in the past, it’s just a lot of fun and I’m really proud of him because he’s had to work his (expletive) off to get to where he’s at right now.”
Yeah, definitely sounds like a guy he doesn’t give a shit about.

Hey, I asked, so thank you. Nice to see one teammate speaking up for him.

He hasn’t been terrible ‘most of the time’ when he’s actually been healthy. You and I both know that’s a lie.

Since the start of 2019? I beg to differ.

2019: 25 GP, 6-11, 4.40 ERA, 147.1 IP, 1.086 WHIP
2020: DNP
2021: 9 GP, 5-1, 3.16 ERA, 42.2 IP, 1.336 WHIP
2022: 2 GP, 0-1, 3.18 ERA, 5.2 IP, 1.059 WHIP
2023: 11 GP, 5-2, 4.58 ERA, 59 IPA, 1.186 WHIP

His K rate had also gone down every year until his brief resurgence this season before the injury. He's averaging less than 6 innings pitched every year. He has had flashes, to be sure, but since signing that extension, he's been as close to the exact opposite of what he was before as it probably gets in that vocation. He's toast and his arm might just fall right off if he goes back out and tries to throw gas.

 

[deconstruction]

Hey, I asked, so thank you. Nice to see one teammate speaking up for him.



Since the start of 2019? I beg to differ.

2019: 25 GP, 6-11, 4.40 ERA, 147.1 IP, 1.086 WHIP
2020: DNP
2021: 9 GP, 5-1, 3.16 ERA, 42.2 IP, 1.336 WHIP
2022: 2 GP, 0-1, 3.18 ERA, 5.2 IP, 1.059 WHIP
2023: 11 GP, 5-2, 4.58 ERA, 59 IPA, 1.186 WHIP

His K rate had also gone down every year until his brief resurgence this season before the injury. He's averaging less than 6 innings pitched every year. He has had flashes, to be sure, but since signing that extension, he's been as close to the exact opposite of what he was before as it probably gets in that vocation. He's toast and his arm might just fall right off if he goes back out and tries to throw gas.

You said in your previous post that he's "averaged less than 6 starts a year since 2018" and clearly your own research into the matter here has proved this claim false!

And a 4.21 ERA over that span is a 113 ERA+. He's been good when he's available, and great in flashes.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

You said in your previous post that he's "averaged less than 6 starts a year since 2018" and clearly your own research into the matter here has proved this claim false!

My apologies: I'm an English major. He's actually averaged 9.4 starts a year over the last 5 seasons, including the current one (where it's probably safe to bet he won't pitch again). So a third more than the number I threw out there. My bad.

And a 4.21 ERA over that span is a 113 ERA+. He's been good when he's available, and great in flashes.

True, but, in this case, just not good enough to let it slide.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

My apologies: I'm an English major. He's actually averaged 9.4 starts a year over the last 5 seasons, including the current one (where it's probably safe to bet he won't pitch again). So a third more than the number I threw out there. My bad.

technically 50% more. 9 is 50% more than 6..

 

[E5 Yaz]

technically 50% more. 9 is 50% more than 6..

True, but, in this case, just not good enough to let it slide.

 

[radsoxfan]

I remember back in the day when Sale signed a SUPER team friendly contract early in his White Sox career and was dramatically underpaid for a long time (part of the reason he had so much trade value when the Red Sox trade was made).

White Sox Contract

He provided a ridiculous about of excess value for that 32.5M but is obviously making up for it on the back end....with the Red Sox picking up the tab of course.

Unfortunate, but that's how it often goes with MLB pitching.

 

[Rovin Romine]

My apologies: I'm an English major. He's actually averaged 9.4 starts a year over the last 5 seasons, including the current one (where it's probably safe to bet he won't pitch again).

Looking at the average innings pitched for an injured pitcher is another way of saying, "Hey, this guy was injured."

As opposed to, "Hey this guy can't be any good when healthy."

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Why is it two separate variables? Injured yes/no and how good when not injured?

Why not just look at his body of work as a Red Sox of which injuries are a part and make it one variable? He has been good for about 96 runs over replacement (bref) as a Red Sox. That’s about 17.8 per season — though the number will go down as the season progresses since he won’t play. Call it 16.5. Looks as though they get him for about another season, maybe a touch more. Assume some regression due to age — a good chunk of those runs over average were his age 29-30 years.

It seems reasonable to expect maybe 15 more runs from him. That takes into account everything, including the possibility of additional injuries. It is a pretty rough way to do it, but none of us has a crystal ball. It will be more if he stays healthy and fewer if not.

Expecting more seems irrational. Valuing him at significantly less seems equally so. 15 runs is not a big deal. Especially for $50 million or whatever he has left to earn. But it’s not nothing either.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

True, but, in this case, just not good enough to let it slide.

Too true

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

technically 50% more. 9 is 50% more than 6..

Like I said, English major.

 

[chrisfont9]

You said “safe bet” Sale doesn’t pitch again this year. It’s borderline. Healing time is 6-8 weeks supposedly. De Grom missed four months though. If Sale is on the low end where he can pick up a ball by late July, he will kick the door down to play again. But…?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Like I said, English major.

As.

(I don't know, accountant)

 

[Archer1979]

Hey... if we make him a coach, do we still have to pay him?

We're stuck with him, his luxury tax hit, and probably his roster spot until the contract runs out. It would have been great if his arm came back to the Chris Sale that once was, but the talent/ability that he was born with apparently had an earlier expiration date than anticipated.

I feel fucking awful for Chris Sale. I know he's rich AF, but the dude worked so hard to get back out there. This sucks.

This really epitomizes the human aspect to following sports. We tend to get callous, but yeah, as a former Little League coach, this would be the take I would have if this were one of the kids that I coached. This guy really did work hard to get back on the field. Its not really his fault that he got the most money that he could have from DD.

 

[PapnMillsy]

You said “safe bet” Sale doesn’t pitch again this year. It’s borderline. Healing time is 6-8 weeks supposedly. De Grom missed four months though. If Sale is on the low end where he can pick up a ball by late July, he will kick the door down to play again. But…?

It’s 6-8 weeks of rest then at least a month of buildup to get back to game action. Assuming no setbacks. So yeah, I’d say it’s safe to say he doesn’t pitch again this year. He should use the time to consult with specialists to figure out why his bones keep breaking. He might have osteoporosis or something.

 

[Harry Hooper]

It’s 6-8 weeks of rest then at least a month of buildup to get back to game action. Assuming no setbacks. So yeah, I’d say it’s safe to say he doesn’t pitch again this year. He should use the time to consult with specialists to figure out why his bones keep breaking. He might have osteoporosis or something.

Wacha was shelved for 2.5 months midseason back in 2014. If Sale follows that scenario, he's back for September. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[PapnMillsy]

Wacha was shelved for 2.5 months midseason back in 2014. If Sale follows that scenario, he's back for September. We'll have to wait and see.

That’s true. There’s actually been very few documented cases of this injury in pitchers so we don’t have a lot of data to go by. One thing’s for sure, Sale will work as hard as he can to get back as soon as he can, as he has always done.

 

[geoflin]

He should use the time to consult with specialists to figure out why his bones keep breaking. He might have osteoporosis or something.

You might want to stay away from making medical diagnoses based on newspaper reports. It's not particularly unusual to have a bone break when you get hit by a 100 mph line drive or when you fall off a bike. And I'm pretty sure the Red Sox might have already had him consult with specialists.

 

[PapnMillsy]

You might want to stay away from making medical diagnoses based on newspaper reports. It's not particularly unusual to have a bone break when you get hit by a 100 mph line drive or when you fall off a bike. And I'm pretty sure the Red Sox might have already had him consult with specialists.

Yeah but I’m not talking about those incidents. Those are freak accidents. But this is his second stress reaction in less than a year and a half. His bones are breaking just from throwing. That’s not normal.

 

[Doc Zero]

I mean, how much does “normal” factor into things when you’re hurling an object as hard as you can, repeatedly, for decades?

 

[radsoxfan]

I mean, how much does “normal” factor into things when you’re hurling an object as hard as you can, repeatedly, for decades?

"Normal" is relative to other major league pitchers.... not 99.999% of the population.

There is a sample size of thousands over the years you can compare to.

Of course none of this is "normal" in a general sense.

 

[joe dokes]

This could go in a bunch of different threads:

Chris Sale threw two simulated innings on Monday and is scheduled for live batting practice on Thursday in Worcester. From there, the lefty could start a rehab assignment.
Don’t expect Sale to be in the minors for long. The Sox are considering building up his innings as an opener, something they’ve done with success before.
“It’s something we still have to have more conversations about,” Bloom said.

Kike Hernandez trade to the Dodgers was necessary for Red Sox (bostonglobe.com)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Has Worcester replaced that TV yet? If not, they might wanna wait on that a couple of weeks.

 

[Fishy1]

This could go in a bunch of different threads:

Kike Hernandez trade to the Dodgers was necessary for Red Sox (bostonglobe.com)

Rooting for Sale to finally return to health. He was very healthy from ages 23-30, pitching over 200 innings four times and nearly 200 another. Rich Hill is a nice goal for him - another left-hander with nasty stuff who struggled to stay healthy in his late 20's and into his mid 30's, but who found his way back to health and is still pitching at 43.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Rooting for Sale to finally return to health. He was very healthy from ages 23-30, pitching over 200 innings four times and nearly 200 another. Rich Hill is a nice goal for him - another left-hander with nasty stuff who struggled to stay healthy in his late 20's and into his mid 30's, but who found his way back to health and is still pitching at 43.

Sale has always thrown much harder than Hill and has a skinnier build which puts far more stress on his arm.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Rooting for Sale to finally return to health. He was very healthy from ages 23-30, pitching over 200 innings four times and nearly 200 another. Rich Hill is a nice goal for him - another left-hander with nasty stuff who struggled to stay healthy in his late 20's and into his mid 30's, but who found his way back to health and is still pitching at 43.

It's interesting that his FB velocity is pretty close to his career highs this season on par with 2017/2018...maybe just a smidge less, but significantly higher than 2019/2021 (he missed 2020 shortened season). Hopefully he's able to figure out a regime that works for him to stay healthy for 150-175 innings....he's prob never going to throw 200+ again.

 

[Fishy1]

Sale has always thrown much harder than Hill and has a skinnier build which puts far more stress on his arm.

A good point. Possible, of course, that he learns to dial back the velocity in order to stay healthier, but he's a proud guy, so I doubt he makes that sort of adjustment unless he gets injured again. Putting on more muscle would be the move, I would think, but I don't know much about this stuff. He should be looking more like Randy Johnson and less like Hill if he wants to stay on the mound.

 

[biollante]

Sometimes I forget Sale is on the team, hopefully he can put some innings in for the team. He always seems to want to be competitive. He has put up 59 innings so far this year.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Sometimes I forget Sale is on the team, hopefully he can put some innings in for the team. He always seems to want to be competitive. He has put up 59 innings so far this year.

Unfortunately he has put up only 107 IP since the beginning of 2020.

 

[Sin Duda]

I like the idea of him as an opener to start. He throws 3 innings and Pivetta throws 5. Next time out it's 4+4. 3rd time out it's 5+3. I know that's best case scenario, but Sale could start that way by Aug 10 or so, by September he'd have (relatively) no restrictions. Giddyup!

 

[AlNipper49]

I like the idea of him as an opener to start. He throws 3 innings and Pivetta throws 5. Next time out it's 4+4. 3rd time out it's 5+3. I know that's best case scenario, but Sale could start that way by Aug 10 or so, by September he'd have (relatively) no restrictions. Giddyup!

Sale is useless unless the Sox make the playoffs. The way playoffs are done these days are exactly what you describe. The Sale fragility issue could be a benefit if you squint hard enough.

 

[Sin Duda]

Sale is useless unless the Sox make the playoffs. The way playoffs are done these days are exactly what you describe. The Sale fragility issue could be a benefit if you squint hard enough.

Well, my "best case scenario" outline of Sale's return could get us *into* the playoffs should he pitch as well as he did earlier this season. He'll come online right in time to give the bullpen workhorses some well deserved rest. The fact that Sale is already pitching and soon ready for rehab starts makes his return more realistic to me.

 

[AB in DC]

Even if he can just replace some innings pitched by guys like Walter/Murphy/Bleier it's a huge step forward

 

[Fishy1]

Even if he can just replace some innings pitched by guys like Walter/Murphy/Bleier it's a huge step forward

Not really disagreeing, but elaborating. Walter has already been demoted, but I think Murphy and Bleier actually have a chance to be a part of this staff. Next to go down would be Jacques, I would guess. I don't love Joely -- walks too many people -- but they'll probably keep him around since he doesn't have options. Here's the active roster of pitchers:



I think getting Sale back will be more about extending the staff by pushing Whitlock or Houck to the bullpen. When Houck and Whitlock come back, assuming they do and that there's no more injuries, there will be more tough calls.

Also worth noting that the pitching staff has had a 3.68 ERA over the last 28 days and a sub 4 ERA from June forward. Removing Kluber and some other underperformers, and this staff has actually been pretty good since a really rough start.

 

[JM3]

I think Joely's issues were likely primarily injury-related (hopefully).

In his 6 games since coming back, he has pitched 7 innings, allowing 0 runs on 6 hits with 0 walks, striking out 9. I think he's going to be pretty solid (although obviously not that good).

Bleier I am a bit dubious on, because his stuff isn't nearly as good. In his 3 games since returning, he's pitched 3.2 scoreless innings, but has allowed 5 hits & 2 walks with 2 strikeouts, so not a particularly sustainable path.

& yeah replacing Murphy's & Walter's innings going forward may be useful I guess, especially Walter, but Murphy has a 1.80 ERA & Walter had a 3.07 ERA prior to demotion, so they weren't exactly hurting the team.

 

[Fishy1]

I think Joely's issues were likely primarily injury-related (hopefully).

In his 6 games since coming back, he has pitched 7 innings, allowing 0 runs on 6 hits with 0 walks, striking out 9. I think he's going to be pretty solid (although obviously not that good).

Bleier I am a bit dubious on, because his stuff isn't nearly as good. In his 3 games since returning, he's pitched 3.2 scoreless innings, but has allowed 5 hits & 2 walks with 2 strikeouts, so not a particularly sustainable path.

& yeah replacing Murphy's & Walter's innings going forward may be useful I guess, especially Walter, but Murphy has a 1.80 ERA & Walter had a 3.07 ERA prior to demotion, so they weren't exactly hurting the team.

I took a look at Joely's numbers and the issues with walks aren't as bad as I thought they were - but they're still not great. Over 4.5 BB/9 last year. Better the year before that, though. His xFIPs have always been better than his ERAs, maybe something to do with low LOB%'s.

Bleier's always been a guy who hasn't struck many people out. I could see them moving on from him, though.

Murphy also has been great. It's a great sign that we're not sure who to get rid of.

The good news is I don't think, unless something catastrophic happens to the pitching staff, we'll have to see Ort again this year. There's actually going to be competition for these spots among good pitchers.

 

[JM3]

Joely made a pretty significant adjustment during last season which made him a different pitcher in the 2nd half than the 1st, which is why I was so optimistic about the signing to begin with.

Here's the breakdown.

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-yankees/the-yankees-should-reunite-with-this-talented-bullpen-arm/

 

[Slocumb If Ya Got Em]

Agree with Houck going to the pen. If they do sell and trade Jansen, they might as well see if Sale can be a closer, similar to how Eckersley progressed later in his career.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Why would they trade Jansen? I haven’t seen that reported as a real possibility.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Why would they trade Jansen? I haven’t seen that reported as a real possibility.

Well if they truly had collapsed and lost like 12 out of 15 to fall out of the wildcard race, some people advocated for a total sell off of Jansen, Duvall, Turner, etc. However in reality the Sox have been really successful and are still in the race, so the trade Jansen movement lost credibility.

 

[Looch]

Could someone please update the title of this thread to something more upbeat and current? Every time it pops up to the top, my blood pressure elevates before my mind eventually recalibrates In recognition that there’s not a new injury.

 

[chrisfont9]

Why would they trade Jansen? I haven’t seen that reported as a real possibility.

It was a Pete Abe unsolicited advice bit from a few weeks ago when he wasn’t satisfied with whatever happened five minutes before he wrote the column. Nothing more than troll-level stuff.

 

[Sin Duda]

Sale's ERA after his first 3 starts in April is 2.87 and 6 IP (if you also skip his last game when he left with his injury) Getting, on average, 6 IP and 2 ERs allowed on his starts would be *very* helpful, and it's not unreasonable to expect that from him after 3-5 starts in August and early Sep.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1684656672541663232

Sale/Pivetta may be an interesting tandem.

 

[AB in DC]

Sale/Pivetta may be an interesting tandem.

Maybe after Whiltock or Houck comes back. Unless you really want them to keep trotting out Bernardino/Murphy/?? every five games.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Maybe after Whiltock or Houck comes back. Unless you really want them to keep trotting out Bernardino/Murphy/?? every five games.

I think the idea is that Sale can return from the IL sooner as an opener who eventually builds back up to starter pitch counts/innings rather than go spend 2+ weeks in the minors doing effectively the same thing. Makes all the sense in the world since it should presumably end the need for Murphy as a bulk guy a turn or two sooner.

 

[JM3]

I think the idea is that Sale can return from the IL sooner as an opener who eventually builds back up to starter pitch counts/innings rather than go spend 2+ weeks in the minors doing effectively the same thing. Makes all the sense in the world since it should presumably end the need for Murphy as a bulk guy a turn or two sooner.

Yeah, that was my general thought. Plus it's nice to have the left/right combo.

Not that Murphy has been bad at all in a bulk role.

 

[joe dokes]

I think the idea is that Sale can return from the IL sooner as an opener who eventually builds back up to starter pitch counts/innings rather than go spend 2+ weeks in the minors doing effectively the same thing. Makes all the sense in the world since it should presumably end the need for Murphy as a bulk guy a turn or two sooner.

The unspoken part of that plan is that he might only have so many bullets left. Once it's clear that he's healthy enough to pitch 2 major league innings, might as well use as many of them as possible in the majors.