What do we think the fall out in Leaf land ends up being? Seems we have this discussion every year but it feels like this one has to be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel's back. I don't really know how they do it without getting worse. I also don't know how they can justify the running it back approach any more.
They kind of have a run-and-gun, no attention to defense or details reputation, but it's kind of the opposite. They can't score goals in the playoffs. Their goals for in their last 12 playoff games: 2,2,2,2,2,1,3,2,1,2,2,1.
Shannahan? The Shanna-plan is in year 10. 8 playoff appearances, 7 first round exits. Asserted control last year by firing Dubas. Does MLSE ax him?
Treliving? Only been there a year so I assume he's safe and will get a chance to put more of a mark on the team. Shannahan being fired would introduce some uncertainty for Treliving's future, but again, GM's tend to get more than a year.
Keefe? This seems to be the easist, and probably happens. 5 years behind the bench, only 1 series victory. 5 years is kind of a lot for any coach these days, let alone one with no playoff success. Additionally he wasn't hired by the current GM (although he may have been extended by him). The old adage of "you can't change all the players.." thing probably applies.
The core 4? Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, Marner. Tavares is 33, entering the final year of his contract at $11 million AAV, and has a ful no-move. That'd be a tough sell in terms of getting Tavares to waive (the guy posted a photo of him as a kid sleeping in Maple Leaf pj's and sheets when he signed) and also finding value in a trade. Matthews just signed a huge extension with a full no-move and scored 69 goals this year. He's also nominated for the Selke. He's a terrific hockey player, trading him would be dumb. The ink is still fresh on William Nylander's 8-year, $11.5 million AAV contract with a full no-move. He ain't going anywhere. That leaves annual whipping boy Mitch Marner. That one, too, won't be easy. He's got, you guessed it, a no-move and is entering the final year of a $10.9 million AAV contract. So the acquiring team has to be suitible enough for Marner to waive the NMC, have the cap space for a $10.9 million winger next season and also be prepared to offer him more than that on an extension. Good luck finding fair value.
Elsewhere? We maybe could expand the core 4 to the core 5 with Rielly. He's really the only non-core guy making any money. $7.5 million for 6 more years. The rest of the group is short-term guys. Bertuzzi and sone of Tie are UFA's and probably walk. Jarnkrok and Kampf are signed to modest deals. Reaves stinks but is there for a reason and doesn't make a ton. But these are always the places the roster churns over year-to-year.
Kind of fascinating. They have $18 million in cap space but have to replace/re-sign Domi, Bertuzzi and at least 2 defensemen (they only have 4 NHL D under contract for next year).
Edit: There was an article in the Athletic that noted that the time to move a core piece was last year. Nylander and Marner didn't have no-moves and in Nylander's case was entering the final year of his deal. But they won a round so they fired the GM and are now a bit boxed in.
