Sampo Gida said:
I noticed this too on the slider/cutter at Brooks. I recall in the offseason an article where Porcello credited his cutter with his improved performance last year, but Brooks had him throwing more sliders. I think they are just classifying it correctly now as cutters. Good question to ask him though.
Looking at the vertical movement on the cutter this year and last, it looks like its a bit flatter this year with less vertical drop. Batter are hitting 400 against the cutter with a 571 SLG, both of which are higher than last year.
His problems are likely multi-factorial though, location, increased use of the 4 seamer, smaller park, tougher offensive division, etc, all of which have been discussed before are likely all contributors to his regression
Oh yeah, Porcello's problems are totally multifactorial. Other than injury/mechanical issues, "messed up in the head/isn't understanding pitching right now," or "just isn't a very good pitcher in general," which are all further up on the causal chain and more the why than the how, it's tough to pick out any one thing and say it's the sole cause of Porcello's problems. It's all a rich tapestry.
EDIT: Just to clarify my why v how of Porcello's suckage (not intended to be an exhaustive list):
How (hittability):
poor command
predictable sequencing?
breaking pitches that don't break well / bad finish/bite/late life on pitches
not getting groundballs - too many HR
fastball too straight? (I have no idea)
bad luck (maybe a little, but clearly there's legit bad pitching here)
Why:
injury?
mechanics?
bad gameplans/catching/coaching?
mental (confidence/stupidity/distraction/general messed upness)?
just not a good pitcher?
If the front office is going to dump Porcello, then they should probably be focusing on the "why" of Porcello's suckage (and of course for each how there is a set of plausible whys). 'Just not a good pitcher' seems the most troubling. He's never had big strikeouty stats or a particularly great season, but if you have good control and keep the ball on the ground, that can be ok. Worked for Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt. Porcello used to be able to keep the ball on the ground and has good not great control that maybe could get better cause he's young? It's not insane, but it requires some improvement to get there. Given that Detroit brought him up early and kept him in the rotation despite his struggles, that's at least some 'outside the Red Sox organization' confidence that Porcello has some talent/potential and isn't just a bad pitcher - or at least baseball people believed he had the potential to get better. Plus his FIPs were decent lately or something (and if you're into some deep fangraphs shit, his SIERA ERA is almost exactly the same as last year's - 3.91 v 3.88). So there's that, for what it's worth.
If he's got some mental issues, like seemingly every other Red Sox pitcher ever (or maybe all pitchers? pitchers are weird), then who knows. I guess you hope he figures that shit out? If it's career-killing injury or something they have no hope of ever figuring out then yeah, trade the hell out of him.
EDIT2: I guess this was less of a reply and more of a general musing. Sorry.