Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo 5m5 minutes ago
Red Sox have signed Rich Hill out of the @AtlanticLg. He heads to AAA.
Red Sox have signed Rich Hill out of the @AtlanticLg. He heads to AAA.
Red Sox sign Rich Hill
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
Rich Hill = Sprowl Viagra
Personally, I love this guy as well. When he's right—which isn't that often unfortunately—his stuff is devastating.
Personally, I love this guy as well. When he's right—which isn't that often unfortunately—his stuff is devastating.
I thought this said "Rich Garces" and it briefly crossed my mind that the FO would attempt to make Panda look like he slimmed down by just standing next to El Guapo
Yep, the movement on his curve is so exciting it's downright kinky.Van Everyman said:
Hill was also a big contributor to the bullpen percussion troupe. Maybe he can revive the Fenway soundtrack, now that Three Little Birds have returned to Capistrano.
When I saw the title I thought someone had bumped an old thread from 2010. Or 2011. Or 2014.
edit: actually just looked it up on BR. The Sox had signed hm 5 separate times previoulsy. This is #6!
edit: actually just looked it up on BR. The Sox had signed hm 5 separate times previoulsy. This is #6!
So....he's starting at the Trop this weekend. Has he shown anything in Pawtucket to warrant this? or are they just seeing what happens back at the MLB level?
His Pawtucket line was very good IIRC .. On my phone so no linksScott Cooper said:
If memory serves he had two or three excellent outings and one crappy one.
Certainly worth a flyer
Edit: Here's his stats page
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t533&player_id=448179#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
I'm guessing this has more to do with lightening the load down the stretch on Rodriguez & Owens than it has to do with anything Rich Hill did or didn't do in Pawtucket.
This, all the way. EdRo has already thrown 152+ innings, which is more than he threw all of last year, and Owens is at 158, having thrown 159 last year. In a lost season, there is no reason not to give them an extra day's rest here and there.Cumberland Blues said:
I saw Hill pitch on Sunday, and it was his crappy outing with Pawtucket: 7 runs, 6 earned on 10H 5K 1W in 6+ innings. His numbers for the year in AAA are good, but yeah 15-20 innings from Rich hill over the next few weeks won't mean anything more than 15-20 innings fewer innings thrown by the kids.
Yes, they've been talking about going to a six-man rotation for a while. Barnes was supposed to be the sixth, but with his sore elbow they weren't sure who it would be.Cumberland Blues said:
Heating up in the bullpen said:
I was thinking it would be Wright, but apparently his concussion is pretty bad. A little Google searching suggested Steven may be out for the season.
Cumberland Blues said:
Heating up in the bullpen said:
It does, but I'm sure they will be watching carefully to see if he has anything left. He's had some very good MLB years (and some not so good as well). Considering the "quality" of the current bullpen, they best be considering all possibilities, and this is one who has strong ties to the team and would not be expensive.
Granted it was against a weak AAA lineup, but boy oh boy did I enjoy watching him and that curveball today!
I always liked Rich Hill as a reliever. If we actually included him in the rotation in 2016 - highly unlikely - he would burn out quickly. In the bullpen he would be our best lefty, one who can handle both RH and LH - better than Layne and Breslow. I' m for keeping both him and Ross- Hill for 2-3 innings of middle relief, Ross as one 8th-inning alternative.
I am totally up for keeping him as our primary lefty. Or if Ross is the primary lefty, Hill as the second, Layne as loogy, once Koji and Taz are back to normal that's a bullpen that doesn't necessarily suck.mfried said:
As great as he looked today, I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves to start talking about Hill being a part of the 2016 team, in the rotation or in the pen. This is a guy who was making his season's debut in a big league game today. A guy who was pitching in the independent leagues 6 weeks ago because he'd been unable to stick with four different big league organizations (including the Sox) since the start of last season.
Not saying he can't be a contributor in 2016, but let's see what he does with another start, maybe against a reasonable MLB lineup, before we go penciling him in for anything going forward.
Not saying he can't be a contributor in 2016, but let's see what he does with another start, maybe against a reasonable MLB lineup, before we go penciling him in for anything going forward.
All that said, he sure looked like a plausible sixth starter today. He's in a situation where the Sox can get another two or three chances to make a judgment for next year.
Here's his pitchFX for the day. His fastball was consistently 91 mph, and his movement and location both looked great -- busting RHB inside with the fastball, then painting them away with the backdoor curve. His arm slot has moved back up to three-quarters from sidearm: it's not quite as much fun to watch LHB bailing away from his curveball in terror, but it seems to give him more resources against RHB.
The main reason why the Red Sox shouldn't count on Hill in any capacity in 2016 is that he'll be 36 and has missed most of his baseball career with injuries. Still, it's great to have him back, and here's hoping he gets blessed with health and durability in his late 30s, because there's no doubting that he's got the stuff to help a decrepit pitching staff.
I'd be happy to see the Red Sox go into April 2016 with Ross, Layne and Hill all on the staff. Ross has a reverse split, and Layne and Hill are both capable of handling LRL sequences without giving the pitching coach a heart attack.
The main reason why the Red Sox shouldn't count on Hill in any capacity in 2016 is that he'll be 36 and has missed most of his baseball career with injuries. Still, it's great to have him back, and here's hoping he gets blessed with health and durability in his late 30s, because there's no doubting that he's got the stuff to help a decrepit pitching staff.
I'd be happy to see the Red Sox go into April 2016 with Ross, Layne and Hill all on the staff. Ross has a reverse split, and Layne and Hill are both capable of handling LRL sequences without giving the pitching coach a heart attack.
He's certainly making himself an attractive and relatively cheap option for some team in 2016. Not sure it's here though.
gryoung said:
The Sox have likely built up some goodwill with Hill throughout the various years, and his family's local. That gives the team a better chance.
But let's be honest: even with 4 good starts this September, Hill's not going to make that much money on a one-year deal no matter where he goes, at 36 he won't be handed either a rotation spot anywhere in MLB, and he won't cost prospects.
Considering their other needs and pre-existing budget constraints, the Sox should have him top-3 on their short list of LHP to sign to replace Breslow.
I'm not sure I understand the sentiment that Hill may not be a fit in Boston. I realize Dombrowski is going to acquire some pitching this offseason, but the Sox could use the depth a guy like Hill provides as much as anyone. At a bare minimum, he's a nice flier to help a pen that has a lot of holes.
twibnotes said:
Yeah, I agree. How quick we are to dismiss.
You have to 1)make some assessment as to whether what he's doing is sustainable for a bit and 2)if there's a sense that it is, you have to keep throwing him out there until he can't do it any more, then you can send him to the pen or release him. He wouldn't cost you that much, and (subject to condition 1), there certainly seems to be some upside there. If anything, it gives you a little more cushion in the event you trade one of the younger pitchers (e.g. Owens) for a top/near top of the rotation guy.
I don't know if the ill-fit is necessarily on the Sox side so much as it could be what Hill wants to do...start or relieve. As a starter, he'd be in a tight competition for the fifth spot with a lot of the kids, and that's before considering who else DD might add to the top end of the rotation mix.twibnotes said:
If he's willing/wishing to relieve, there's more chance of him having a place on the big league roster in 2016. In such a case, I can see him coming to camp as a starter and sliding to the pen if he doesn't make the rotation. But otherwise he might find his best opportunity for a job is elsewhere.
Of course, it really comes down to the type of contract he gets. If he finishes the season like he's looked in his first two starts, he might get a big league offer or two rather than a minor league deal with an spring invitation. It might be hard for the Sox in particular to give him a minor league offer if he finishes as spectacularly as he's begun. At least from a PR standpoint.
The most important consideration for me, though, is that he's showing that, when healthy, he can still get outs against both LH and RH batters.
With Ross showing relatively good late-inning effectiveness, signing Hill for short money and short years gives the Sox a second good LHP out of the pen (as well as Layne, who I still think is most effective when limited to LOOGY work); that both allows more flexibility with their three young LHSP, and also (with Wright) gives the Sox much better multi-inning options than they had at any time this season.
Hill won't be handed a starting job or a contract longer than 2 years, so if he stays healthy he should be a good deal.
With Ross showing relatively good late-inning effectiveness, signing Hill for short money and short years gives the Sox a second good LHP out of the pen (as well as Layne, who I still think is most effective when limited to LOOGY work); that both allows more flexibility with their three young LHSP, and also (with Wright) gives the Sox much better multi-inning options than they had at any time this season.
Hill won't be handed a starting job or a contract longer than 2 years, so if he stays healthy he should be a good deal.
I have to agree with Red: we've seen the good Rich Hill the last couple starts, but he's been a nightmare out of the pen before and probably will be again.
Although he's been exceptional when it comes to command the last couple starts, Rich Hill can make Matsuzaka seem like Greg Maddux. I don't want a guy like him as my primary option against lefthanders.
That said, his curveball is a thing of beauty.
Although he's been exceptional when it comes to command the last couple starts, Rich Hill can make Matsuzaka seem like Greg Maddux. I don't want a guy like him as my primary option against lefthanders.
That said, his curveball is a thing of beauty.
Well .. They have a couple more starts to do some evaluation .. If satisfied I can see a MLB contract offer in the offing .. One year at 2m plus a club option .. Something like that. I think he'd be hard pressed to turn that down right now.Fishy1 said:
Fishy1 said:
Would you rather convert Brian Johnson to full-time relief?
I've been outspoken this season that I think the pen's where he'd be best able to help the MLB club. That being said, taking a 1-year flyer on Hill while the Sox confirm whether Johnson's elbow can physically withstand pitching 2-out-of-every-4 days or 3-days-in-a-row doesn't sound like a bad course of action.
After all, there's really not that many good LH relief pitchers out there who don't walk guys. If they didn't walk guys, they'd most likely still be starters. And if they're not starters, and don't walk a bunch of guys, and are somehow available, then they're still going to cost a ton at a moment in time the Sox are already bloated with deadweight guaranteed contracts.
The best way to get a guy like Zach Britton or Brett Cecil or Andrew Miller is, as always, to develop him to become that guy. But sometimes, it's smart to take on a devalued asset like Hill for a short-term benefit that bridges the gap caused by making a long-term bet.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
I'd like to see Johnson get a shot in the bullpen, absolutely. I'd also love to see him get a shot at starting, but there's probably no room for him in the rotation moving forward. It'd be a similar use of an asset as Tazawa was all those years ago.
With regards to Hill: I think there's a difference between "left handed pitchers who walks guys" and "walked 5 per 9 innings in triple AAA this year." The former certainly are legion in MLB, the latter, although they exist in the majors, often struggle mightily. A quick look at fangraphs of relievers (not just LHP) with BB/9 over 4.5 this year, surprised me a little there's quite a few guys there with decent pedigrees who have been quite successful. Most of them have either had skill/luck with suppressing HR/FB or just plain luck with LOB%, are some are strikeout artists (Chapman), some have found the Yankees-prospect-pixie dust (Shreve -- just kidding, he's praying to the LOB% gods). 16/32 with a minimum of 30 innings are sporting ERAs north of 5.
I'm totally fine with taking him on as a flyer, and I understand too that flyers/converting starters is probably the best way to build a bullpen. Hill and his curveball fit that mantra. What I was advocating against was Rasputin's position that we should move forward with him as our primary lefty. I could totally see him breaking out next year, but far more likely is another season where he can't find the plate and ends up drifting around from team to team.
Why Johnson and not Owens?Buzzkill Pauley said:
I mean, Johnson has a wider repertoire of pitches, has shown himself to have a more advanced approach to pitch selection, is older and therefore closer to the theoretical sweet spot to avoid serious arm injury (assuming he isn't dealing with such an injury already), he was out-pitching Owens in AAA as a starter this year, and he's always shown superior command and therefore the ability to work deeper into starts.
Meanwhile Owens has better raw stuff and more strikeout ability thanks to his great off-speed pitches.
Not to mention that Johnson could likely benefit from a more controlled workload to start next season even if his arm does check out fine, which isn't available at the ML level and is at the AAA level.
Drek717 said:
It was in response to Fishy1 posting that he worried Hill would walk too many guys. Based on their respective track records, that's also a significant concern for Owens.
Johnson, however, maintained a BB/9 rate under 3.00 from hi-A ball on up the ladder, with consistently good ERAs. But he doesn't have consistently great strikeout numbers in the minors, which speaks to his command of a diversified repertoire that keeps batters wondering what's next, and therefore allows him to suppress slugging by generating defensive swings, even without a swing-and-miss pitch. The two other recent Sox pitchers with most similar profile are Tazawa and Workman.
And like them going into their age-25 season, Johnson can either look forward to languishing as a sixth starter riding the Pawtucket shuttle until his options run out, or who could instead begin taking the ball in the 6th or 7th inning when there's two men on, a gassed starter on the ropes, and the other team sniffing a rally.
Converting such a pitcher makes him "less valuable" than keeping him a starter. And as a mid-innings reliever he wouldn't ever see the big salaries given to starters or closers.
But those pitchers help a team win games.
[edit for clarity]
Brandon Workman's two AAA samples saw him pitch to a 4.52 and 4.76 FIP. Brian Johnson's AAA sample (almost the exact same number of innings) had him sporting a FIP of 3.22. Workman's career mL ERA is 3.58. Johnson's is 2.32. Johnson and Workman are about as analogous to each other as Eduardo Rodriguez and Edwin Escobar.Buzzkill Pauley said:
Also, Henry Owens has a career mL BB/9 of 4.0 flat with that number heavily weighted to his early low minors career when he was in the mid-4's every season. Across the high minors and MLB in 2014 and 2015 he's consistently been in the mid-3's with his AAA samples last year (2.8) and this year (4.1) as the major deviations. Rich Hill's BB/9 has bounced all over the place, frequently landing in the high single digits. His last four ML samples (prior to this season) of any size at all saw BB/9 rates of 6.8, 5.0, 6.2, and 8.2. He's a wild card. When he's healthy and pitching right he's nearly unhittable, but it takes just about nothing to get him off track and he can't stay healthy. In short, he's an ideal veteran bullpen flier to bring into ST next year and I doubt a few good starts to close out 2015 is going to dramatically change that.
Johnson should be in AAA to start next season, as a starter, preparing to replace the first guy who gets hurt. He's very possibly one of the five best starters in the organization now excusing health and the biggest variables in the way of him proving it are health and opportunity. Owens meanwhile is absolutely electric in bursts but can't manage pitch counts and can lose command over the course of his outings. If the Sox want a late innings bullpen option, especially a lefty one, they should consider bringing Owens along on the Carlos Martinez plan and let him acclimate to ML pitchers out of the bullpen.
I wonder if racking up all these consistent innings as a starter over the second half of this season will help Hill recover a reasonable command of the strike zone even if he goes back to relief. As a lefty specialist, you're never getting into a game finding a grove, and I'd think you can never do too much side work because you're always on call to pitch to a batter or two every night. This stretch of starting. If it doesn't cause his arm to fall off, might be just what he needed to regain peak effectiveness as a middle reliever. Whatever peak effectiveness is for a 36-year-old journeyman.
Drek717 said:
CAREER MINOR LEAGUE:
Tazawa ---- 7.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 9.0 K/9 (reached AAA age 23, fastball/curve/change/slider)
Workman -- 8.5 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.5 K/9 (reached AAA age 24 fastball/curve/change/cutter)
Johnson --- 6.5 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.4 K/9 (reached AAA age 24, fastball/curve/change/slider)
If you assume a pitcher can't actually control which batted balls fall for hits, which is after all the founding premise of FIP, they sure look analogous to me.
1. FIP includes HR rate (which has a massive difference here, FYI), so no, it doesn't treat all batted balls as out of a pitcher's control.Buzzkill Pauley said:
2. FIP isn't perfect and pitchers do have some level of control on the quality of contact made on them. Are you trying to act like a 2.0 H/9 differential in their career mL numbers isn't significant?
3. Why are you lumping Taz in with this all of a sudden? He blew his arm apart and lost all of his age 24 season. Who knows what he would have been if that hadn't happened, he is a completely unique scenario until it is confirmed that Johnson is out for the next 12 months.
4. What do the ages of reaching AAA have to do with anything? They were both collegiate draftees. College kids are either A. so clearly better than the field that they're leaped multiple levels in a single year or B. going to spend about one year in the low minors, one year for the A+ to AA transition, and one year for the AA to AAA transition. Both Johnson and Workman followed the same condensed path that most college pitchers in the organization are hoping to follow.
I simply don't see how someone can look at the track records of these two pitchers and then think they're analogous to one another. Johnson actually made it into the Baseball America top 100 prior to this season and was in many top 50 lists at mid-season, in some cases leapfrogging Henry Owens. He's shown an ability to dominate in the minors that Workman has never come close to. Workman is the kind of solid starter you hope takes a step up when given a chance as a back end starter or out of the bullpen. Without it he's a middle reliever. Johnson already profiles as a solid back of the rotation starter with the potential to be more like a #2/#3 starter.
I mean, 30% fewer hits per nine innings isn't an insignificant difference, and even if you consider BJ's minor league BABIP numbers unsustainable (I would agree), just remember that H/9 number has nothing to do with batted ball type. Given that he also has a large advantage in HR/9 (which pitchers do have some control over, certainly more than HR/FB), he could potentially be seen as a guy who might walk the same number of players as BW/Taz, but prevent more of them from scoring because he doesn't give up a lot of fly balls/bombs.Buzzkill Pauley said:
Not really saying that I disagree with you in general, just that 'per nine' stats are sometimes a little more dependent on batted ball data for context, and I don't have the mL numbers at hand, other than BABIP.
edit: I guess Drek said some of the same things while I was typing.
pokey_reese said:
I chose those numbers as a specific response to Drek's use of AAA FIP a measure to compare Workman and Johnson. Not because I think it's the best tool. Because here's the rub: Brian Johnson has pitched 96 innings in AAA. Brandon Workman 96 2/3, which was split over two seasons. Using a tool like FIP to compare two sample sizes that small is like using a sledgehammer to mount a picture hook on the wall.
Here's the FIP formula: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. Johnson walked 32 in AAA and struck out 90; Workman walked 30 and struck out 89. But Workman allowed 10 HR to Johnson's 6.
Those four home runs signify the entire difference between Johnson's 3.22 FIP and Workman's 4.60 FIP.
Four home runs, that's it.
So I laid out the raw data in rate-per-nine form. Even that's not really perfect, since we're dealing with different fielders, different hitters, different years. But it's still better than FIP.
FWIW, I ended up including Taz because not only has he been the Sox most recent successful transition from "not quite good enough" starter to "very good enough" reliever, but also because his minor league scouting report, pitch mix, velocity, and ability to limit walks historically matches up well with both Johnson and Workman.
But all that has nothing to do with Rich Hill, so unless this part of the thread gets split off, I'm just going to let it drop from here.
That makes sense, really the issue here is that looking at the AAA numbers doesn't give us enough of a sample size for all of the rate stats that go into using FIP (K rate stabilizes quickly, but HR rate takes 1300+ batters faced, etc.). My point was simply that K rate and BB rate, while stabilizing more quickly, don't necessarily tell us more about the similarity of pitcher profiles, but I think I was having the wrong discussion, if we were just talking about whether FIP was a good tool for the situation. Carry on.Buzzkill Pauley said:
Rich Hill tie-in: Given how few innings he has pitched due to injuries over the last few years, with big gaps, and now the changed arm angle, it's virtually impossible to tell how predictive these early returns are. It's like we are starting from scratch statistically, with a 40-year old.
Today on .com, Ian York does what only Ian York can do, using his unique visual analysis to look at Hill's repertoire.
I mean, seriously? Not sure if he'll go out for the 9th, but 8IP, a walk, a hit and 9 Ks.
What a story. You have to think he's earned himself a major league contract for next year, from someone.
ETA - oh, and Mookie's not bad either
What a story. You have to think he's earned himself a major league contract for next year, from someone.
ETA - oh, and Mookie's not bad either
So at this point, if the Sox want to keep Hill, they better offer him an extension before he hits free agency.