I'd drive either Duran or Dalbec to the airport for Merrfield. Good fit with Yorke's timeline. Mike Minor can become Martin Perez.
If you’re trying to say that you think Buxton’s injury history is predictive, this is not a convincing way to do that.Do you get tired moving the goalposts as much as you do?
I'm pretty sure he said this.Buxton made his MLB debut in 2015. He's played in 100 or more games in a season ... once.
I'm not a huge fan of Merrifield's .317 OBP and sub .400 slugging last year. Is it a decline or a bad year?I'd drive either Duran or Dalbec to the airport for Merrfield. Good fit with Yorke's timeline. Mike Minor can become Martin Perez.
I'd say decline if only because he's entering his age 33 season. He's been durable as anyone the last few years but the trend in his numbers aren't rosy.I'm not a huge fan of Merrifield's .317 OBP and sub .400 slugging last year. Is it a decline or a bad year?
Molitor is axiomatic to injury prone players coming into free agency the same way Joe Morgan is for short 2Bmen: if your argument requires that the compared player in question follow a HOF career path, the sheer unlikeliness of that outcome is an argument against it as an outcome, rather than for it IMO. Just because somebody wins the Powerball jackpot is no reason to argue that it's likely to be a specific person.Before 2021, this was also basically true of Correa (played in >110 games once), and I’d be pretty happy if we gave him $300 million. Paul Molitor’s another top 3 draft pick who had extremely bad injury luck through his age-27 season.
Buxton’s injuries seem flukey to me. A couple years-old concussions from a HBP and collision, a HBP fractured hand, a HBP wrist contusion, a fractured toe. The only one that seems worrisome is his 2019 left shoulder subluxation, which clearly hasn’t affected his hitting since (.288/.326/.622 for a 152 wRC+, the same wRC+ Shohei Ohtani posted last year).
These are good points. I don’t mean to say that Molitor rebounded from an early injury bug 35 years ago to have a long career, ergo Buxton will. I’m trying to say that all it takes is one healthy year for Buxton to change the narrative.Molitor is axiomatic to injury prone players coming into free agency the same way Joe Morgan is for short 2Bmen: if your argument requires that the compared player in question follow a HOF career path, the sheer unlikeliness of that outcome is an argument against it as an outcome, rather than for it IMO. Just because somebody wins the Powerball jackpot is no reason to argue that it's likely to be a specific person.
Are there any other players who had such a reputation for poor health and then corrected later in their careers? In this regard how close do you think Molitor is Buxton? I think it's probably worth pointing out that Molitor's reputation for health is set against standards for earlier eras; if you compare games played and PA (1st 7 seasons):
Granted 2020 mucks this up a bit, depending on how you want to look at how you want to look at Correa playing in 58 out of 60 games and Buxton playing in only 39, and you have Buxton not getting a full season in 2015, but in the end given the comparison you've set up I don't think it's reasonable to expect that Buxton was going to get healthy and close that gap. (If you just chuck each players 2 worst years the games played is still 688/ 519/ 380).
- Molitor: 765 G/ 3479 PA
- Correa: 752 G/ 3223 PA
- Buxton: 493 G/ 1758 PA
The bottom line isn't that anyone is arguing that Buxton isn't as talented as anyone in the game when he's on the field, it's that he's just not on the field often enough. I'll leave aside being happy about the Sox giving Correa $300M; I suspect that is going to be subject to a wide variance across the board and I don't think you can use that as a crux for an argument in favor of Buxton. That Buxton's injuries may seem largely flukey also doesn't really matter IMO. These are the sorts of things that happen when one plays baseball, which is what he's going to be expected to do. These things happen to every player and it doesn't necessarily keep them off the field...
A team that is going to sign Buxton to a large contract is not only going to have to try to keep him healthy, they're also going to have to have a plan for what to do when he inevitably isn't. The opportunity cost with Buxton isn't just tying up the money, it's also the roster spot and machinations to get another player on the field in his place, and I'm not sure I can see how to do that.
Further, it's possible they're not. There are lots of HBPs in the injury list upthread. Is that flukey or does it have something to do with his stance or approach?That Buxton's injuries may seem largely flukey also doesn't really matter IMO.
Well, the Met's got Marte. Not sure if Chaim was interested or not, but I'm sure that 4 years at $78M wasn't doable here.If the Sox decide to pursue an outfielder there's a CF out there that I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox pick up. I'm wondering what it takes to sign Starling Marte. Four man rotation with Kike', Verdugo and Renfroe. Marte's a good on base guy, has some speed, 3x GG OF and has played nearly 600 games in LF. This also lengthens the bench with one of these guys or Arroyo available off the bench everyday.
No reason other than Gausman’s 2021 performance being completely consistent with his previous two years since leaving Atlanta.really no reason to believe that Gausman is anything other than a one year wonder.
Hey. At least we have Wacha.Wow, I really did not see this type of market developing. It’s definitely not breaking right for us. Damn.
Don’t forget TOR lost Semien and likely Ray.Gausman to Jays for 5/110. Definitely seems to make them the most complete team in the division right now on paper, will be interesting to see if this affects the Sox and their plans as I imagine they had been poking around him.
Still would scare me that he was so mediocre in the AL East with his stuff and he's had his share of injuries. I think his deal is fair given he was so important to the Giants phenomenal season but I'm surprised he didn't stay in the NL if he had a similar offer there.No reason other than Gausman’s 2021 performance being completely consistent with his previous two years since leaving Atlanta.
Gausman was much better than mediocre during his time in Baltimore with the exception of his last full season for the Orioles, when he was soundly mediocre due in part to a BABIP .030 higher than his career average.Still would scare me that he was so mediocre in the AL East with his stuff and he's had his share of injuries. I think his deal is fair given he was so important to the Giants phenomenal season but I'm surprised he didn't stay in the NL if he had a similar offer there.
We also don't have that much to do to keep a competitive team on the field.Wow, I really did not see this type of market developing. It’s definitely not breaking right for us. Damn.
I largely agree with this, though the Sox won't be competitive enough without a couple more blue chip arms, as you say. Even 3 ...a starter and two relievers. Or at least 2 of those. That seems like a must to me.We also don't have that much to do to keep a competitive team on the field.
A couple of bullpen arms could do it at this point.
Locks: C (Vazquez), SS (Xander), 3B (Devers), LF (Verdugo), CF (E.Hernandez), RF (Renfroe).Quasi-Locks: 1B (Dalbec), 2B (Arroyo).Low priority ? marks: UT IF, 4th OF.Rotation: Sale, Eo, Pivetta, Houck/Whitlock, Wacha.Bullpen: Whitlock(?), Barnes(?), J.Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Valdez, Brasier, a few MiLe
So let's put aside a situation where something lands in Bloom's lap (e.g. getting a below market rate prime OF, then flipping one of our 3 starting OF for value.) But if we assume he's basically getting value for value, what would we upgrade? Our main weak points are 2B, C, and 1B depending on Dalbec.
So in reverse order, 1B. Bat-signings really hinged on JD. He's staying, so we still have the DH-heavy problem, and that pretty much rules out signing Schwarber, unless we contemplate a mid-season trade. By that I mean, we have JD at DH, Dalbec at 1B and Casas knocking on the door. If Casas comes up this year, we've got the same juggling problem. So why add Schwarber ahead of time (and at much $) so Bloom will have to do a mid-season trade if all 4 of those pieces are hot. I'm also pretty sure he won't trade for a 1B upgrade over Dalbec (this assumes Dalbec's inconsistency at the plate is thought a risk by the Sox.) What do you do with that upgrade 1B guy if Casas is ready? (As it is, Dalbec might find time at 1B/3B/DH/LF, and segue to DH in 2023 when JD is a free agent.)
Part of this hinges on whether we view 2022 as a competitive year. I don't see why we wouldn't. Even so, I just don't see Bloom wanting to create potential log jams, even if only for a year. It's a waste of on-field production and burns out contract years by reducing at-bats of prime players and stalling development (if they're riding pine in the majors.) Then maybe you have to dump someone for next-to-nothing and you lose value. (In 2021, Bloom held onto broken pieces till very late in the season.)
2B. After a potential Dalbecian cold-start, our biggest "hole" is 2B, but we have Arroyo (knock wood) and Downs. If they think Arroyo's something of an illusion, or injury prone, and Downs has plateaued, maybe that's a good upgrade point for a trade or long term signing. No shuffling required. But both Arroyo and Downs have multiple years of control left. . .and given the value holding tendencies. . . I wouldn't rule it out, but I don't think we'd see a primo multi-year 2B signing unless Bloom is convinced both those guys won't be a starting 2B.
The next biggest production hole is C. But that's pretty much a thin market in terms of clearly upgrading without paying through the nose. Also, Vaz is a Cora favorite, and hit a bit in the final months. Plawecki seems the ideal shorter-half starting catcher. Perhaps some of the Vaz problem would be minimized if Cora played Plawecki more, or managed Vaz better, so he does not crater mid-season. I don't see anything being done here. And maybe it does not have to be.
As far as Utility IF/OF guys again, we have them as Arauz, Downs, Duran fill the Iglesias/Santana utility roles. But if the Sox think that crew isn't ready, they'll likely sign a couple of place-holders, like Iglesias and Santana. (They'd strike gold if they managed to get what they thought they were going to get with Santana in 2021.)
We seem fully stocked with break-in prospects (Downs, Duran), lottery tickets, and break-glass guys who can play the positions in case of emergency: Ryan Fitzgerald (SS), Cameron Cannon, etc. Heck, there's even Franchy Cordero who we retained on a 1 year MiL deal.
Cheer for the laundry and not the players?So….Seagar at 10/325, how does this impact Bogaerts? Does 8/200 get him to not opt out? Is that a deal the Sox even want to make? (Pretty sure I know the answer).
Same goes for Devers, who has to be thinking about a 10+ year deal with multiple opt outs.
What the heck are the Sox going to do here?
Can someone talk me off the ledge here?
As I have said before, MLB may claim there is no salary cap in baseball, but the Luxury tax and penalties that go with it, pretty much make it a Salary cap
If Bogaerts wants to pursue free agency because he wants Seager/Lindor type money, then 8/200 will be laughed out of the room. It's going to take Seager/Lindor money to keep him.So….Seagar at 10/325, how does this impact Bogaerts? Does 8/200 get him to not opt out? Is that a deal the Sox even want to make? (Pretty sure I know the answer).
Same goes for Devers, who has to be thinking about a 10+ year deal with multiple opt outs.
What the heck are the Sox going to do here?
Can someone talk me off the ledge here?
Will it though? X is 2 years older than both at time of signing, and not necessarily considered to be long for the SS position (although frankly I'd love to know how to diplomatically convince him of that while trying to resign him).If Bogaerts wants to pursue free agency because he wants Seager/Lindor type money, then 8/200 will be laughed out of the room. It's going to take Seager/Lindor money to keep him.
Link that shows they weren't?Ray.... 5 - 115 mil.... Is it just me or does that seem like a bargain that the Sox should have been in on?
Take a look at his stats by year. With the exception of two seasons, those ERA and WHIP numbers don't scream $23M per season to me.Ray.... 5 - 115 mil.... Is it just me or does that seem like a bargain that the Sox should have been in on?
If he's intent on opting out, yes, that's what it will take because if it wasn't, he wouldn't be opting out. Unless you're suggesting that his age and "not being long for SS" will suppress his market, in which case why not let him opt out if he's going to and if he doesn't find what he wants, re-sign him to a more reasonable (defined however you want) deal.Will it though? X is 2 years older than both at time of signing, and not necessarily considered to be long for the SS position (although frankly I'd love to know how to diplomatically convince him of that while trying to resign him).
Yeah we really need to be better with this.Link that shows they weren't?
Stroman seems pretty concrete. Mentioned multiple times.Multiple reports suggest the Sox reached out to Ray and expressed interest. Haven’t seen any that say they made an offer but who really knows. So far, it’s been reported that they made offers to Matz and Heaney (and obviously Wacha), haven’t seen anything concrete on anyone else.
I'm with you on signing Bogaerts for 8 years at 200 mill. He has also indicated recently that he is open to moving out of shortstop in the future. I continue to believe that Bogaerts and Devers want to stay together in Boston. The Sox should guarantee them at least five years here. The deal with Bogaerts and $250 mill to Devers for 10 with an opt out after five should get it done. This package should be their priority this winter. Who knows? Maybe Chaim is working on that now.Will it though? X is 2 years older than both at time of signing, and not necessarily considered to be long for the SS position (although frankly I'd love to know how to diplomatically convince him of that while trying to resign him).
This is a fair point -- though by today's standards, it's hard to argue against $23M per for the reigning Cy Young winner. But you're right, he has some pretty mediocre seasons mixed in with those two stellar ones.Take a look at [Robbie Ray's] stats by year. With the exception of two seasons, those ERA and WHIP numbers don't scream $23M per season to me.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml
One might say it's Cy Young worthy LOL. So the $115M question is, Can Ray continue to preform close to this level for the next few years or was it a one off? I've no idea, but heading into the 2021 season Ray pitched in 161 games, 157 of them as a starter. His career ERA at that point was 4.29 and his career WHIP was 1.44.This is a fair point -- though by today's standards, it's hard to argue against $23M per for the reigning Cy Young winner. But you're right, he has some pretty mediocre seasons mixed in with those two stellar ones.
For the record, his 2021: 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 248/53 K/BB ratio across 193 1/3 innings (32 starts). That's pretty solid production.
If Xander is signed long term to eventually move to 3B, why sign Devers to be a 1B with Casas in line to be that guy? It seems more likely that we have another few years with Devers and Xander, then we are looking at a Casas/Yorke/Mayer core, maybe Duran in CF if he pans out. Devers has been a great but not transcendent offensive player. He is an alright 3B but not particularly good at it.I'm with you on signing Bogaerts for 8 years at 200 mill. He has also indicated recently that he is open to moving out of shortstop in the future. I continue to believe that Bogaerts and Devers want to stay together in Boston. The Sox should guarantee them at least five years here. The deal with Bogaerts and $250 mill to Devers for 10 with an opt out after five should get it done. This package should be their priority this winter. Who knows? Maybe Chaim is working on that now.
Of course *you'd* like him at 8/200. That's a no brainer from the team's standpoint. I can't fathom any scenario where that is entertained as a serious offer. Maybe he doesn't get 10 year's like Seager, but I think he gets 8/280 or somewhere in that range.I'm with you on signing Bogaerts for 8 years at 200 mill. He has also indicated recently that he is open to moving out of shortstop in the future. I continue to believe that Bogaerts and Devers want to stay together in Boston. The Sox should guarantee them at least five years here. The deal with Bogaerts and $250 mill to Devers for 10 with an opt out after five should get it done. This package should be their priority this winter. Who knows? Maybe Chaim is working on that now.
Fun fact... Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched in 159 games, 153 of them as a starter. His career ERA is 4.16 and his career WHIP is 1.39. May not mean a whole lot, but I found it interestingOne might say it's Cy Young worthy LOL. So the $155M question is, Can Ray continue to preform close to this level for the next few years or was it a one off? I've no idea, but heading into the 2021 season Ray pitched in 161 games, 157 of them as a starter. His career ERA at that point was 4.29 and his career WHIP was 1.44.
Not to be nitpicky, but you mean the $115M question ... If we were talking $155M, I'd definitely be out (that is, if I had several hundred million dollars lying aroundOne might say it's Cy Young worthy LOL. So the $155M question is, Can Ray continue to preform close to this level for the next few years or was it a one off?