Agree 100%. (And for some reason I chuckled at "wild" unicorns, as though they're much rarer than the domesticated kind.) I really want the Twins to extend Buxton, and I really don't want them to do it at $15M+ for 7+ years, guaranteed. Somebody will do it, but they'll almost certainly regret it. $10-12M/year with massive incentives to push it to $20-25M or more is the only sensible kind of deal, imo, but I certainly understand why Buxton doesn't want that. Maybe there's a deal with $25M/year player options that kick in only if he reaches x# of ABs in the prior year.
In any case, with Hernandez on board, I don't see the Sox expending significant resources on a CF this offseason.
Good points. I think it’d be great if the Twins kept him too, but hope the Sox are in if they can’t.
Indulge me this exercise. If you believe as I do that the Sox will add a middle infielder this offseason, whether he plays 2B or pushes Bogaerts there, how does acquiring (and extending) Buxton address that need compared with the alternatives?
Options by age, 2022 Steamer projections, Fangraphs median contract predictions
Seager, age 28, 134 wRC+, 7/$196 million
Correa, age 27, 132 wRC+, 8/$240
Buxton, age 28, 123 wRC+,
8/$125 (plus acquisition cost)
Semien, age 31, 118 wRC+, 4/$92
Bryant, age 30, 114 wRC+, 6/$150
Marte, age 33, 111 wRC+, 4/$72
Story, age 29, 108 wRC+, 6/$150
Taylor, age 31, 102 wRC+, 4/$60
Escobar, age 33, 99 wRC+, 2/$20
Baez, age 29, 95 wRC+, 4/$80
Look at it this way: we need a CF by ‘23 and a plus defensive RF by ‘24. If we sign a 2B/SS, say Correa or Semien, we still need those OFs. Maybe we extend Kiké (I’m into it) or Renfroe (not so much). Maybe Duran, Jimenez or Rosario, but I wouldn’t bet on it. If we sign a 2B/SS, we’d have to fit him, Bogaerts, Downs, Arroyo, Yorke and Mayer into two positions by 2025. And unless that signee is Baez, we lose a (#60 or so) draft pick.
If we trade for Buxton and extend him at his asking price (between 7/$105, as you suggest, and $7/120), then we’ll have acquired one of the plus-defensive outfielders we’ll need to get anyway, and we have a premium CF (Kiké) in house in case he gets hurt.
For 2022, we’d have options. A) We move Kiké to 2B for a year, making Arroyo the utility man. That buys us a year of development time for Downs, Mayer and Yorke, and time to hammer out an extension with X that may involve moving him to 2B in 2023. B) We trade or non-tender Renfroe, play Buxton in CF and move Kiké to RF in 2022. C) We keep Kiké in CF and move Buxton to RF, every bit the challenge as CF, with an eye toward keeping him healthy.
If Buxton’s healthy, he’s a superstar. He’s Correa (who’s also had a ton of fluke injuries) or Mookie Betts (who has chronic hip issues). He doesn’t block our forthcoming 2B/SS logjam, and he’s extremely valuable to us because of our expansive CF/RF.
The worry about Buxton’s injury history is a little overblown. It’s extensive and concerning, but it’s also unlucky. He had a hip injury after colliding with the wall in May, then he was hit on the hands by a pitch. It’s not like he’s got a muscular disorder. He’s a 28-year-old who was on pace to be a 10-win player last year and he’s potentially available for about 1/3 of the money most people wish we had paid Mookie.