Red Sox get Aaron Hill for Wilkerson and Rijo

[joe dokes]

I think people are way overthinking this. Hill is likely an upgrade over Rutledge/Hernandez/Marrero. Shaw has scuffled against LHPs this year and is likely to blow past his career high in playing time. The Sox have 42 games betweeen July 18 and Sept 1 with 2 days off. Maybe it gets Pedroia an extra day off as well along the way.

As for being a malcontent, I recall Dave Roberts and Doug Mientkiewicz sucking it up for a few months. Hill's going from the outhouse (again) to a team with a chance. He'd have to the world's biggest asshole to be a clubhouse problem.

Sox get an actual major league ballplayer for their bench and the first thing a lot of people do is to wonder what's "really" going on. I think its pretty clear that with two OFs on the DL for at least some time longer, Holt's IF time is necessarily limited. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

When Swihart is healthy again, I think he goes right back to AAA to catch. That's presuming his ankle returns to health which I'm not sure we should count on this year.

This, unfortunately.

Swihart -- if he remains a Red Sox past the trade deadline, which I hope he will -- might be able to contribute in September, but only in LF, if one is actually needed. But with Vazquez's gag job at the plate this year, though, the much better option is to let him take as much time as needed before starting to catch full-time again.

With all this "down time" caused by the injury, the Sox and Blake should be dedicating a good deal of it to working with Varitek in Boston: sharpening the mental side of his game, using advance scouting reports effectively, game-calling within a plate appearance, learning to set up hitters for multiple times through the order, charting pitches at Fenway, etc.

LF will be okay -- some combination of Holt, Brentz, Young (once healthy), a July or August pickup, or even Benintendi, should be sufficient to hold down the bottom of the order. It may not be classic LF thunder, but that's being brought up-the middle from SS and CF.

 

[smastroyin]

I also don't think Blake was as bad as people have made themselves think he is. We have a much larger sample size now to say that the problems with the pitching staff this year have basically nothing to do with the guy behind the plate.

 

[Max Power]

You can't have both Vazquez and Swihart catching full time at Pawtucket. Is the assumption that Vazquez learns how to hit and Leon turns back into a pumpkin before Swihart is ready to come back?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Hill has been a starter all of his career and the main assumption here is that he becomes a utility guy with the Sox, and mainly platoons with Shaw at 3B. I guess you do what you're told, but that means he gets to play 20-25% of the time, if that's the % of LHP. OK, he can also back up at second and short, but the guys that play there don't like to sit very often. So, unless Shaw is leaving and Hill gets 3B to himself, are we going to have a happy camper on our hands?

He's a 34-year-old infielder who hasn't been a really good player in four years, and who has exactly one (losing) postseason series on his resume, coming to a team where he'll be playing part-time because the team is really good and has a solid shot at making the playoffs (which he can help actualize). If in spite of that, he's going to be pouting because he'll be starting 30 games the rest of the way instead of 70, he's a fool.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Anyone else concerned about Hill's last two years in Arizona? His numbers are quite poor. Tough pitching in that division, but Chase Ballpark is supposed to be pretty hitter friendly.

Tough pitching and tough parks. His home splits have actually been pretty consistent the past three years, in the neighborhood of .700-.730. The big difference this year is that he's gotten to do more of his road work in hitter-friendly parks. Last year he got hurt by Dodger (.545) and absolutely destroyed by AT&T (.235) and Petco (.217).

 

[simplicio]

This is true... and his downturn in production coincided with an injury.
Shaw has really impressed me and it looks like he's healthy again (coinciding with the his upturn in production). He's versatile (1st, 3rd, LF) with a great eye.... but I suspect he's actually undervalued not just by us, the FO, but also by other teams. He seems like a guy who will be a consistent 20HR, .850 OPS guy with some hot streaks and good (not great defense). With his versatility and the impending loss of Ortiz, he's the perfect fit to rotate through those positions- and one game at DH- without losing focus-

Fangraphs has his defensive rating at 4th highest among MLB 3b. He's got more errors than I'd like, but his range is excellent and his barehand play has looked really solid. Where's the line between good and great? I think he's close to it if not across it already, and this is still just his first full season.

Teheran's having a BABIP fueled career year, plus it's a seller's market for pitching so it would never happen, but in a vacuum I see Shaw as the more valuable player overall.

 

[dynomite]

Hill has been a starter all of his career and the main assumption here is that he becomes a utility guy with the Sox, and mainly platoons with Shaw at 3B.

FYI, this isn't true -- last season he was a utility guy for the Diamondbacks. He only started 73 games (played in 116) and spent about equal time at 2B and 3B.

As for whether he's "happy" to be here, I certainly hope he's motivated by the prospect of making the playoffs for only the 2nd time in his 12-year career, especially in comparison to playing out the string for a bad Brewers team.

Edit: Saw Savin covered some of this above.

 

[Al Zarilla]

On NESN today, there was a Dombrowski clip in which he said he'd talked to Hill, who said he was happy to be coming to the Red Sox and looked forward to contributing however he could.

For the record, I did know he's 34 (getting toward the end) and that he was playing for a team going nowhere. Just bringing out the playing time concern, which looks like DD did. You have to consider everything.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I also don't think Blake was as bad as people have made themselves think he is. We have a much larger sample size now to say that the problems with the pitching staff this year have basically nothing to do with the guy behind the plate.

Exactly. The bad pitches were thrown by Carl Willis

 

[Drek717]

You can't have both Vazquez and Swihart catching full time at Pawtucket. Is the assumption that Vazquez learns how to hit and Leon turns back into a pumpkin before Swihart is ready to come back?

Swish art can take the small side of the platoon and get extra time in at LF or DH. He has even very few AAA plate appearances and in his last full mL season posted an .840 ops in AA at 22. He needs more development in general, but a half season of playing every day instead of only 70% like most full time catchers would only help his offensive maturation.

He caught full time in the majors for over half a season last year and was not especially bad at it. There is room for him to be a better catcher but the same is true for his hitting and no matter who he plays for and at what position the later has value.

Brentz has earned the chance to stick around as the LHP side of the LF platoon at least until Young is healthy. Having him in that platoon with Holt full time while Hill reduces the reliance on Shaw and Hanley at the corners only makes the team better, for very little cost. Maybe the FO finds a deal involving Shaw or Holt, maybe not, but either way they're a better, more flexible club after the deal than they were before it.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

maybe Wilkerson turns out to be worth something, but very possible he won't. DD got a major league player for 2 guys who I believe were not even ranked in the Red Sox top 25 prospects. I am intrigued to see if he can get anything for Henry Ramos...sell high on that impressive AAA debut and promise of tools...

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Tough pitching and tough parks. His home splits have actually been pretty consistent the past three years, in the neighborhood of .700-.730. The big difference this year is that he's gotten to do more of his road work in hitter-friendly parks. Last year he got hurt by Dodger (.545) and absolutely destroyed by AT&T (.235) and Petco (.217).

Is even .725 enough of an upgrade over Shaw? Shaw actually has a career OPS against lefities of .800. Even if this year is more reflective of his true abilities against left handed pitchers, what are we talking about -- a handful of extra bases per month? I guess the answer is a few months of the upgrade over Shaw from left side + upgrade of utility guy when Holt starts in left = making the trade worth it. Defensively, he seems to be about a push.

(Here, by the way, is a fangraphs article from last year using Hill as an example of how overall metrics can be down even for a player who occasionally makes spectacular plays. There are some good gifs in there. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-hills-polarizing-defense/ )

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

There's also the possibility that Ortiz will need more days off in the second half, and those days are most likely to come against LHP. Hill makes it easier to field a strong lineup on those days: Hanley to DH, Shaw to 1B, and Hill to 3B. So he'll probably pick up some starts from Shaw and some from Papi.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I give this trade an A+ so far.

 

[Average Reds]

Can't agree. No home runs, so maybe an A.

 

[tims4wins]

After a 2 hit debut Hill is now at 6 for 36 with the Sox. Has really hurt the bottom of the order production

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't know if he just isn't being utilized correctly or what... But all he's done so far is take Shaw out of the lineup.

 

[Plympton91]

Wilkerson had to be traded because he just didn't fit in with the Red Sox pitching strategy. He throws too many strikes.

 

[Mookies Lip Curl]

Wilkerson had to be traded because he just didn't fit in with the Red Sox pitching strategy. He throws too many strikes.

No he would have fit in perfectly, having allowed 13 runs in 18 innings in his new AAA home.