Despite the sweep, things are still quite favorable for the Sox. Various calculators have them 75-80% to make the postseason, with the Jays on the outside looking in. This is helped by the Jays/Yankees starting a 3 game series…someone has to lose at least 2 of those games.
6 games to go. 4-2 gets them to 92 wins which has been my mental “clinch” number. 3-3 or worse and you start getting down to tie breakers / etc. Last place Orioles up first, Tues-Thurs. 2/3 is mandatory, sweep ideal. Then last-place Nationals, win the first two and hopefully the last game is meaningless.
Do they?
NY (89-67): 3 at TOR, 3 with TBR.
BOS (88-68): 3 at BAL, 3 at WSN.
TOR (87, 69): 3 with NYY, 3 at BAL.
If you balance their records, in a sort of Worst-Sox scenario, NY and TOR could end up with 93 and 92 victories. That means the Sox would have to win 4 of the last 6 to tie someone with 92 wins, and win 4 of their last 5 to have a WC spot all to their own. How do NY and TOR do that Worst-Sox scenario?
92 wins for TOR means 5 wins in 6 games - e.g. at least 2 in NYY and all 3 TBR games, or a NY sweep and 2 of 3 against the Rays.
92 wins for NY means 3 wins in 6 games - they can drop all 3 with TOR and win 3 in Baltimore. Obviously NY can win one of the TOR games to go up to 93, any more wins would be at the cost of pushing the TOR win total down below 92, which is good for the Sox.
Both teams cannot win 93 games.
92 wins for BOS means 4 wins in 6 games. (However, a 92 win tie for WC2 berth would be sort of disastrous.) If BOS wins 5 or more, it does not matter what Toronto or the Yanks do, since one of those teams would be at 92 wins or below. (Also the best SEA can do is 92 games - see below.)
TOR remains the low probability team to make the post-season out of the three current WC teams.
In lower probability outcomes. Seattle and Oakland are 2 and 3 games behind the Sox.
SEA has 3 home games v. OAK and 3 home games against LAA.
OAK has 3 at SEA, and 3 at HOU.
If SEA (86-70) closes with 6 wins, they end at 92-70.
If OAK (85-71) closes with 6 wins, they end at 91-71.
Again, BOS has to win 4 of their last 6 to tie this best-case SEA scenario, or 5-6 to nullify it. (Obviously, that changes day to day with any SEA losses.)
To look at it another way:
BOS, 6 for 6: 94-68 - in
BOS, 5 for 6: 93-69 - in
BOS, 4 for 6: 92-70 - worst case tie for WC2 with one game elimination game.
BOS, 3 for 6: 91-71 - maybe out
BOS, 2 for 6: 90-72 - maybe out
BOS, 1 for 6: 89-73 - maybe out
BOS, 0 for 6: 88-72 - maybe out. TOR could also go 0-6, while SEA could win 1 and OAK 2, then lose all their games, all three teams finishing at 87 wins. But BOS is likely out in this scenario, and the 1 and 2 for 6.