The Pats defense has been terrible in the clutch this year. I count 7 games when either of the following 2 scenarios happened: 1) Pats defense needs one stop to protect a late lead, 2) Pats defense needs one stop to get the ball back in a one score game. How many times did they succeed? Once. And even that one comes with a rather large asterisk.
- Game 1, vs Miami: Pats driving for the win, Damien Harris fumbles and Miami takes over on the 11. Miami takes over on their 9, 3:31 left. A stop gives the Pats a shot to win. Miami successfully runs out the clock.
- Game 4, vs Tampa: Pats kick a go ahead field goal with 4:34 left. A stop wins the game. Pats allow Tampa to drive for the game winning FG.
- Game 6 vs Dallas: Mac bounces back from a pick six to hit Kendrick Bourn for go ahead TD with 2:11 left. After Meyers catches a 2 point conversion, Pats lead 29-26. Dallas drives for a tying FG. After Pats receive the ball and fail to score, defense gives up the TD.
- Game 13 at Buffalo: This is the bad weather game, and it is the one time all year the D can be said to have made the stop. Buffalo takes over on its 20 with 5:47 left down by 4 in the 4th quarter. Buffalo drives to the Patriots 13, takes a false start, and then facing 3rd and 4th and 14 from the Pats 18, throws 2 incompletions, turning the ball over on downs with 2 minutes left. I'll reluctantly give them a win here, since their defense got a big assist from the gale.
- Game 14 at Indianapolis: Pats score with 2:21 left to cut the Indy lead to three. Defense gives up a 67-yeard TD run to seal the win for Indy.
- Game 15 vs Buffalo: With 7:37 to go in the 4th, Damien Harris scores a TD to cut Buffalo's lead to 5. A stop gives the Pats a chance to win. Instead, the Pats give up a 5 minute, 75 yard TD drive.
- Game 17 at Miami: Pats score to cut the Miami lead to 3 with 2:57 left. Miami gets 2 first downs and runs the clock down to 14 seconds, pinning the Pats deep in their own end for good measure.
I mark that as the defense getting the needed stop just once in 7 opportunities. There are two other somewhat close situations that I did not count:
- Game 5 at Houston: Pats score a tying FG with 9:31 left. Pats D forces Houston to go 3 and out. Pats take over with 7:15 left and go on a 7 minute drive for a go ahead FG. Houston takes over in a Haly Mary situation and blows it.
- Game 8 at Chargers: Pats kick a FG to extend their lead to 10 with 2:19 left. SD scores a TD to cut the Pats lead to 3. Pats recover onside kick and run the clock out.
In the Houston game, the D got a 3 and out in a time game with over 9 minutes left, then the Pats offense ran out almost the entirety of the reamining time on the clock with a 7 minute drive. I don't think this counts as a close and late success.
In the SD game, the Pats D gave up a late score but they were protecting a 10 point lead so it did not affect the outcome. So I don;t count this as a close and late fail.
Also, in the Dallas game, the D caved in OT. I did not count this because most OT games end with a defnesive failure. I did give the Pats D a fail in regulation in Dallas because they has a chance to make a game ending stop.
The overall defensive numbers are pretty good for this Patriot team. But this defense also has a strong track record for failing in the clutch. If they get stops on half of the chances they blew, it probably means a win or two.