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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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https://www.cubsinsider.com/2024/01/12/christopher-morel-not-attending-cubscon-speculation-ensues/

Literally no idea on the validity of the source in question, but Morel has been mentioned on the block a ton. Especially after the acquisition of Michael Busch and the rumored continued interest in a Berlinger reunion. The Cubbies have also been loosely linked to Jansen and needing BP help.

Jansen, Martin, Bleis and $16m to ChC
Morel to Boston
(Shows as an overpay by Boston, which makes me think ChC would consider it.)

They are set at LF, CF, RF long term (Happ, PCA, Suzuki) and Berllinger could DH and play any OF spot as well but mitigate time in the OF (like Springer).

Jansen and Martin immediately make their BP very good at the back end (with Alzolay). Bleis is there to off set the long term value and ostensibly be ish ready for when Happ and or Suzuki are done (3 and 4 years of control). Boston could also send either O’Neill or Refsnyder as either one makes a heck of a lot more sense on a contending team than in Boston - which looks very much like a non contender in 2024.

Morel isn’t great in RF, but he grades out like last year’s Duran out there (not atrocious). He also has plus speed and arm strength, which lead me to believe he could become slightly below average out there if he was given one spot and not used in a super utility role. Plus, he destroys the baseball.

Yoshida (L) - DH, Grissom (R) - 2b, Devers (L) - 3b, Story (R) - SS, Casas (L) - 1b, Morel (R) - RF, Abreu (L) - LF, Wong (R) - C, Duran / Raráela - CF. That’s a pretty nice line up for 2024-2027.

Frees up one of Duran / Rafaela to pair with Yorke and lets say Perales to get a mid / back of the rotation piece (Cabrera? Detmers?)

Bello, Gio, Detmers, Crawford, Pivetta (extended, hopefully)
Houck, Whitlock, Slaten, whatever else… (maybe even sign a Neris type).

Not bad, actually.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Hm. Why Cora? Because that should have been a coaching priority for him and his staff? I'm just not remembering the context in how you blamed Cora for this.
Mental preparation, practice repetition, in-game focus for me is something that can be taught/coached. I don’t like COra and felt he didn’t have the players focused. Sure a lot of that is on them but a good coach can definitely help there
 

The Gray Eagle

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Devers still has time to improve. Looking at last year's team, he is younger than guys like Wong, Arroyo, Reyes, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, and Verdugo, and a month older than Duran.
If Devers hadn't made the majors till he was 23, he would be considered a player who is still developing. But he was good enough early enough that he has been around a long time but isn't that old. He needs to get better defensively but he has the tools and is still young enough to become decent. Way back in 2022, he was a little bit below average defensively by the stats: -1.9 UZR/150, -2 OAA and -2 RAA.

Last year he dropped down significantly, to -3.6 UZR/150, -9 OAA and -6 RAA.

But in 2019 in 1353 innings, the most he's ever played in the majors, he was +2.4 UZR/150, +17 OAA and +13 RAA. He has been a good defender before, and was not bad just 2 years ago. And his numbers looked better when a good defensive SS played next to him last year.

Devers has been both bad and good by the defensive stats over the years, but has the capability to be good or at least decent. He just needs to get back to where he was the season before last to be clearly better defensively. Beyond the stats, by the eye test, his problems seem like concentration, and also footwork issues on his throws (which could very well be due to concentration issues.) He's had the footwork to make the throws in the recent past, and is still young.

Health and no disastrous seasons from the infielders this year and the defense should be much better, even if it's not great. Last year was not just bad, but historically bad. Getting to average would be a huge leap, but it's definitely possible.

2B was -12 runs last year. Getting that to 0 would be gigantic improvement. Story was way better when he came back than everyone else before him. Casas had terrible OAA and RAA numbers but was +1.3 UZR/150. By the eye test, he was bad early in the season but looked solidly improved in the second half.

Devers has the capability to be better. It won't take a miracle or even anything shocking to have a solid infield defense this year, just health and some reasonable improvement.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Devers still has time to improve. Looking at last year's team, he is younger than guys like Wong, Arroyo, Reyes, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, and Verdugo, and a month older than Duran.
If Devers hadn't made the majors till he was 23, he would be considered a player who is still developing. But he was good enough early enough that he has been around a long time but isn't that old. He needs to get better defensively but he has the tools and is still young enough to become decent. Way back in 2022, he was a little bit below average defensively by the stats: -1.9 UZR/150, -2 OAA and -2 RAA.

Last year he dropped down significantly, to -3.6 UZR/150, -9 OAA and -6 RAA.

But in 2019 in 1353 innings, the most he's ever played in the majors, he was +2.4 UZR/150, +17 OAA and +13 RAA. He has been a good defender before, and was not bad just 2 years ago. And his numbers looked better when a good defensive SS played next to him last year.

Devers has been both bad and good by the defensive stats over the years, but has the capability to be good or at least decent. He just needs to get back to where he was the season before last to be clearly better defensively. Beyond the stats, by the eye test, his problems seem like concentration, and also footwork issues on his throws (which could very well be due to concentration issues.) He's had the footwork to make the throws in the recent past, and is still young.

Health and no disastrous seasons from the infielders this year and the defense should be much better, even if it's not great. Last year was not just bad, but historically bad. Getting to average would be a huge leap, but it's definitely possible.

2B was -12 runs last year. Getting that to 0 would be gigantic improvement. Story was way better when he came back than everyone else before him. Casas had terrible OAA and RAA numbers but was +1.3 UZR/150. By the eye test, he was bad early in the season but looked solidly improved in the second half.

Devers has the capability to be better. It won't take a miracle or even anything shocking to have a solid infield defense this year, just health and some reasonable improvement.
Eye test for Casas definitely showed significant improvement after Kike and Arroyo were gone and he got locked in at the plate. I’m not worried about him- Sox prospects had him as a decent 1B in the minors unlikely to need to be moved.
Devers can improve with better players and coaching. SS and 2B is way better. Rafaela in CF (he’s not improving against AAA pitchers), Duran in LF, Abreu/Oneill in RF- the team is way better than ‘23 already.
Their 2 needs only cost money and they have that in abundance- Montgomery or Snell and Turner- and they’re an 88-90 win team
 

Yo La Tengo

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Small quibble - they would also get worse compensation picks for any QOs they offer.
Thinking about this some more. After 2024, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, and O'Neil could potentially get a qualifying offer from the Sox. After the 2025 season, Refsnyder and McGuire are the two potential free agents. And who know how things will work after 2026. But I'm guessing there is a good chance the Sox won't be impacted by the drop in compensation picks for any qualifying offers they offer. (and, again, thank you for making your point, which is right on target)

So, Sox should spend up to $277 million this year- the penalties are minor and the time to open the competitive window is now!
 

moondog80

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Thinking about this some more. After 2024, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, and O'Neil could potentially get a qualifying offer from the Sox. After the 2025 season, Refsnyder and McGuire are the two potential free agents. And who know how things will work after 2026. But I'm guessing there is a good chance the Sox won't be impacted by the drop in compensation picks for any qualifying offers they offer. (and, again, thank you for making your point, which is right on target)

So, Sox should spend up to $277 million this year- the penalties are minor and the time to open the competitive window is now!
This is a good point but to make it even stronger, Jansen can't receive a QO, the Dodgers offered him one in 2016.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Thinking about this some more. After 2024, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, and O'Neil could potentially get a qualifying offer from the Sox. After the 2025 season, Refsnyder and McGuire are the two potential free agents. And who know how things will work after 2026. But I'm guessing there is a good chance the Sox won't be impacted by the drop in compensation picks for any qualifying offers they offer. (and, again, thank you for making your point, which is right on target)

So, Sox should spend up to $277 million this year- the penalties are minor and the time to open the competitive window is now!
Not that I am necessarily disagreeing that the Sox should go over the threshold, but Giolito could definitely get a QO at the end of the year. The fact that they set the deal up so he would only be a free agent if he had a good year (and thus would likely get a big contract) makes me think they do not intend to be over this year specifically for his comp picks.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Hm. Why Cora? Because that should have been a coaching priority for him and his staff? I'm just not remembering the context in how you blamed Cora for this.
Hasn't Cora said that he doesn't think it's necessary to have major league players engage in practicing defensive drills--the kind that, for example, Ron Gardenhire was known for?
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I think Sale trade was a bold move by Breslow, and that's very encouraging. I think the only really bold move by Bloom was trading Betts, which was foisted on him by the front office. The Sale trade makes me think that Breslow will be willing to deal Jansen and Martin at the deadline if the Sox aren't realistic contenders.
What about the Sale trade was bold? He got 6 years of a controllable asset for an oft injured #3 starter?
 

DavidTai

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Hasn't Cora said that he doesn't think it's necessary to have major league players engage in practicing defensive drills--the kind that, for example, Ron Gardenhire was known for?
Honestly, I hadn't heard that one, if so, it's very understandable why STT would be putting the onus on that staff. I just hadn't remembered what STT had said in the past, though.
 

JCizzle

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Hasn't Cora said that he doesn't think it's necessary to have major league players engage in practicing defensive drills--the kind that, for example, Ron Gardenhire was known for?
That doesn’t appear to be the case, at least last year. There’s only so much you can do with an expanding roster of DHs (if they nab Soler!).

https://theathletic.com/4569728/2023/05/31/red-sox-bad-defense-kike-hernandez/?amp=1
The team has made defensive drills a priority since spring training and continues to do them regularly before batting practice.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Not that I am necessarily disagreeing that the Sox should go over the threshold, but Giolito could definitely get a QO at the end of the year. The fact that they set the deal up so he would only be a free agent if he had a good year (and thus would likely get a big contract) makes me think they do not intend to be over this year specifically for his comp picks.
I'm right there with you... if he is worth a QO at the end of this season, I'd surmise that the Sox have performed well as a team and would benefit from full buy-in, since Giolito is probably the highest variance player on the team this year.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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I don't remember ever hearing that. Can you find a reference?
Sorry I don't have the reference, I just recall it in the past (it might have been an off the cuff comment), but in any event that's why his verbal about-face on needing to focus on defense last year was notable to me. But given how futile they've been, one wonders how effectively they are actually practicing defense and whether Cora is the right guy for that (I know they have coaches, but it starts with the direction of the manager, especially this manager). Cora was always gifted at defense, he was a natural with good hands and good instincts. Sometimes folks like that have a hard time teaching others without such tools.
 

kazuneko

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I don't think he needs to be great or even good at third to stick there, though he's shown potential to do that in 2019. He just needs to not be terrible like last year and 2021; the rest of his time is mostly just below average and not an extreme liability. It's not like his D has been in progressive decline; it's fluctuated pretty significantly year to year. Let's get him a year next to a competent SS before before writing him off as a lost cause.
At this point it’s hard to see 2019 as anything other than a statistical anomaly. In that remarkable season, he was one of the best fielders in all of baseball; his next best season was in 2022, when he was a 37th percentile defender (per statcast). From there it gets worse. He's never had any season outside those two seasons when he was better than 18th percentile.
So in his career he's had one year when he was good (very good even), and one year when he was merely bad. Every other season he's been a complete disaster.
For his career, he has been the 2nd worst 3rd basemen in all of baseball (outside of Vlad Jr.). In fact, if not for his remarkable 2019 performance, he would be (by far) the worst fielder at any position since 2017 (when he debuted).
 
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curly2

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What about the Sale trade was bold? He got 6 years of a controllable asset for an oft injured #3 starter?
With the team's biggest weakness being starting pitching, he dealt a guy who still showed flashes of dominance last year and could be very good for the Braves for a player who is talented but not a sure thing. I think it's gutsier than Bloom would have been.
 

cantor44

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With the team's biggest weakness being starting pitching, he dealt a guy who still showed flashes of dominance last year and could be very good for the Braves for a player who is talented but not a sure thing. I think it's gutsier than Bloom would have been.
We know it's gutsier than Bloom would have been. By all accounts - he hesitated to pull the trigger on trading Sale and making a variety of other deals..

“The Sox also had deals on the table for James Paxton — multiple industry officials said they could have acquired major league-ready pitching, perhaps with the ceiling of a back-end starter, despite the injury risks involving the lefthander — and Kenley Jansen.”
“Perhaps most notably, according to major league sources, the Sox were deep in talks with the Marlins on the day of the deadline about a deal that would have sent Justin Turner to Miami for Edward Cabrera — a 25-year-old righthanded starter with a potentially dominant fastball — and more.”

“According to a major league source, at the 2022 trade deadline, the Rangers were willing to take all but $14 million of Chris Sale’s remaining contract while also sending two prospects to Boston, but the talks died. “
 

kazuneko

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Devers has been both bad and good by the defensive stats over the years, but has the capability to be good or at least decent.
I think it's more accurate to say he's been very good one year (2019) subpar one year (2022) and terrible every other year. So in 7 season he's been better than average once just once and terrible 5 times. Not good. Sure 2019 was remarkable but take that away and he's been the worst fielder in baseball at any position (by OAA).
 

The Gray Eagle

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I think it's more accurate to say he's been very good one year (2019) subpar one year (2022) and terrible every other year. So in 7 season he's been better than average once just once and terrible 5 times. Not good. Sure 2019 was remarkable but take that away and he's been the worst fielder in baseball at any position (by OAA).
I didn't say he was good, I was talking about whether he has the ability to improve, and he does. OAA and UZR had him as about 2 runs below average in 2022-- he wasn't terrible. If he gets back to that level, that would be a big improvement. He's young enough that it wouldn't be very surprising if he did.
 

YTF

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I've been fairly critical of Cora, particularly pertaining to the team's defense. Yes he can only work with what he's been given and the MI defensive shit show of '23 is pretty hard to pin solely on him, but the overall defense of this team has been poor for the past couple of years. We debated the manager's role previously. Some argue that his role is to "manage" the team, and that coaches are responsible for teaching and instructing. Some say that players should have certain skills before being promoted and there is little reason to think they will learn once they arrive in the majors. My position is that the manager IS responsible for setting the tone for the ball club and that includes his coaching staff. He should have a philosophy about all aspects of the game and his coaches and players should carry that philosophy out to the best of their abilities. Everyone should be on the same page, but ability is a huge part of the execution of said philosophy AND different people learn differently. That said we have watched some pretty poor defensive issues that for long periods of time have shown little to no improvement form certain players. Poor positioning and foot work certainly seem to be things that can be coached up. Those are not ability issues, but are things that can help players improve their defense. Yet we see so many of the same mistakes being made over and over and IMO those failures reflect on the coaching staff and it is up to Cora to facilitate the improvement of those failures.

Press conference after press conference we repeatedly hear "we need to be better", yet "we're" not. The final straw for me was the declaration that the team is going to work on getting better defensively during spring training. To me this is a huge admission of failure but we're going to wait until the start of a new season to address it? Sure a team's manager has a ton of responsibilities before, after and during a game and getting the absolute best out of his player's abilities is a part of that.

As a side note, focus/bad decisions seems to be the big issue with Devers and when he struggles in the field it often seems to affect his hitting. I've no idea if the team employs a sports psychologist or not, but if they don't I think Devers is a guy that might benefit from that availability in an attempt to lessen how his or any player's deficiencies affect the rest of his game. This is a different sort of coaching that would be above what Cora might offer, but IMO Cora should give some input as to what sort of improvements he might like to see. Is this already something that's in place? I don't know, but if it's not it should certainly be on the table.
 
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HfxBob

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With the team's biggest weakness being starting pitching, he dealt a guy who still showed flashes of dominance last year and could be very good for the Braves for a player who is talented but not a sure thing. I think it's gutsier than Bloom would have been.
Bloom traded Mookie Betts.
 

chawson

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Bloom traded Mookie Betts.
https://theathletic.com/4863711/2023/09/14/mccullough-chaim-bloom-mookie-betts-deal/

The idea of trading Betts did not originate with Bloom. In the summer of 2019, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman engaged in lengthy discussions with Dombrowski about a deal. The negotiations fizzled when the Red Sox went on a brief winning streak. But that winter, after Dombrowski got canned, Friedman connected with Bloom, his former lieutenant in Tampa Bay. The Red Sox wanted to reduce their luxury-tax payroll after exceeding the competitive-balance threshold in 2018 and 2019. Bloom was charged with dealing Betts to make that happen.
 

CR67dream

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Bloom traded Mookie Betts.
They're not really analogous, though. I don't think we even know if Bloom wanted to trade Mookie, and please let's not use this to rehash that. Trades such as that one come from the top, we're talking about what's done in the regular course of doing business. Let's keep it there.
 

CR67dream

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I was not here at the time - were there similar posts about Lester after he left (Until they won in '18 that is)
How is that relevant to the here and now? Let's not get sidetracked. But yes, oh yes, to answer your question.

I didn't say he was good, I was talking about whether he has the ability to improve, and he does. OAA and UZR had him as about 2 runs below average in 2022-- he wasn't terrible. If he gets back to that level, that would be a big improvement. He's young enough that it wouldn't be very surprising if he did.
Yeah one of the maddening things is that he's shown flashes of brilliance at times, even for a pretty good stretch. It's been overall pretty ugly, no denying that, but I'm hopeful we haven't seen the finished product. Sometimes I forget how young he still is. I think/hope any talk of moving to DH is years premature.
 

HfxBob

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They're not really analogous, though. I don't think we even know if Bloom wanted to trade Mookie, and please let's not use this to rehash that. Trades such as that one come from the top, we're talking about what's done in the regular course of doing business. Let's keep it there.
OK, the topic in question was Breslow showing that he's not afraid to be bold with the Sale trade. We all want the guy to succeed, but I think it's a little early to give Craig praise in that area. Because in total the moves so far are not really getting Red Sox fans excited. And of course we have no clue what kind of directives and budget room the man has been given. All we have is mostly discouraging rumors.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah one of the maddening things is that he's shown flashes of brilliance at times, even for a pretty good stretch. It's been overall pretty ugly, no denying that, but I'm hopeful we haven't seen the finished product. Sometimes I forget how young he still is. I think/hope any talk of moving to DH is years premature.
Devers is young but his body type is not one that generally ages well. I’m trying to think of similar comps who got materially better on defense in their late 20s with a body type like his but can’t really think of anyone so wondering if anyone else may have some ideas.
 

CR67dream

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All we have is mostly discouraging rumors.
I just said I thought the trades he's made so far are a good sign, and I appreciated the creativity. I certainly respect that you're not ready to praise him, that's perfectly within your rights. We disagree, big deal.

All we have is rumors, and not everybody reads them the same way. Just as you are free to be mostly discouraged, and yes, many are, others are free to see it differently. There are no trophies for being right.
 

Robert Plant

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I'd like to read your thoughts on this.
Having enough arms to pitch quality innings was a major issue last year. This makes it more likely we can get those quality innings out of our starters. Other than Montgomery, there is not a free agent starter that I am aware of who has shown the ability to pitch a lot of quality innings.
 

effectivelywild

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Having enough arms to pitch quality innings was a major issue last year. This makes it more likely we can get those quality innings out of our starters. Other than Montgomery, there is not a free agent starter that I am aware of who has shown the ability to pitch a lot of quality innings.
A 6 man rotation can make sense if it a. allows your starters to go deeper into outings and b. If there isn't a big change in skill level between the top of your rotation and the bottom (because otherwise you are taking starts away from your top guys). My main concern is with "a." I don't know if reducing the frequency of starts for our guys increases the innings they can throw per start, because one of the reasons why guys (especially lower tier starters) get pulled is the third time through the order penalty. I'm not sure that a six man rotation helps get around that problem, unless the starters are able to mix up their approaches/add a new pitch to help mitigate that. Maybe a slightly fresher pitcher can have less of an issue seeing a batter a third time that day but....that's an issue that would have to be addressed.
 

LogansDad

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Having enough arms to pitch quality innings was a major issue last year. This makes it more likely we can get those quality innings out of our starters. Other than Montgomery, there is not a free agent starter that I am aware of who has shown the ability to pitch a lot of quality innings.
The big issue with a 6 man rotation these days is that it leaves you with a 7 man pen due to roster limits of 13 pitchers.

Also, I would like to avoid Clevinger, if at all possible.
 

absintheofmalaise

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Couldn't the starters make a low leverage relief appearance between starts? Thus mitigating the smaller pen issue.
Are you talking about pitching on the day they would normally throw a side session between starts? One thing you need to consider when asking starters to do this is that is usually very far outside their comfort zone. They are used to their pre-game warm up routine and this would totally disrupt that. And how would you ensure that the situations you would want them to throw in are low leverage? Relievers are used to going you at a moment's notice. Starters are not.
 

Robert Plant

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Are you talking about pitching on the day they would normally throw a side session between starts? One thing you need to consider when asking starters to do this is that is usually very far outside their comfort zone. They are used to their pre-game warm up routine and this would totally disrupt that. And how would you ensure that the situations you would want them to throw in are low leverage? Relievers are used to going you at a moment's notice. Starters are not.
We could leave it up the the individual starter. Some of them may like this. I can only imagine there's got to be movements of boredom on the road for starters. But great point, maybe they don't pitch between starts. We could also rotate in our long relievers on day 6.
 

sezwho

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Are you talking about pitching on the day they would normally throw a side session between starts? One thing you need to consider when asking starters to do this is that is usually very far outside their comfort zone. They are used to their pre-game warm up routine and this would totally disrupt that. And how would you ensure that the situations you would want them to throw in are low leverage? Relievers are used to going you at a moment's notice. Starters are not.
Thats certainly the logical conclusion of the discussion, and baseball players are seemingly creatures of habit, but I can’t help thinking someone might challenge that status quo.

Someone forward thinking, seeking every possible edge, and maybe not so so so concerned with long term health (cough Rays cough).
 

Robert Plant

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Thats certainly the logical conclusion of the discussion, and baseball players are seemingly creatures of habit, but I can’t help thinking someone might challenge that status quo.

Someone forward thinking, seeking every possible edge, and maybe not so so so concerned with long term health (cough Rays cough).
If we're signing damaged goods like Paxton and Clevinger, its reasonable to expect them to be open minded.
 

Rovin Romine

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We could leave it up the the individual starter. Some of them may like this. I can only imagine there's got to be movements of boredom on the road for starters. But great point, maybe they don't pitch between starts. We could also rotate in our long relievers on day 6.
Has any MLB starter done this routinely? Like for half a season or something?
 

Rovin Romine

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Very likely it is not doable. But I still think if we aren't going to sign a top starter, then the benefits of signing a couple of older starters and going with a 6 man rotation may help us to stay competitive.
Those tend not to work well with all staffs. They mean you're effectively one man down in the bullpen. Unless you have a starter giving you complete games (rare), the pen will pitch every game day. Two of the pen members, Jansen and Martin are not guys you want pitching back to back days at this point of their career. That gives you 5 other pitchers to carry all the remaining innings. I don't think that's doable.
 

jon abbey

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Those tend not to work well with all staffs. They mean you're effectively one man down in the bullpen. Unless you have a starter giving you complete games (rare), the pen will pitch every game day. Two of the pen members, Jansen and Martin are not guys you want pitching back to back days at this point of their career. That gives you 5 other pitchers to carry all the remaining innings. I don't think that's doable.
Plus it means your best starter/s pitches less often, which you usually don't want.
 

sezwho

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Plus it means your best starter/s pitches less often, which you usually don't want.
First off, just want to concede it’s not happening, but it seems genuinely likely to me that there are more than just two types of potential training goals and methods for maximizing pitchers performance and innings (SP vs RP).

I harbor the suspicion that there’s a training/usage program evolution out there that could break down the traditional patterns. Like 4 innings x 4 days, or 3x3, or both or neither or whatever.

I’ll drop it though, both because it’s not germane and because I’ve clearly got zero actual data supporting the position.

Please news soon : )
 
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