Right! At least there I think the Sox are in good shape, Cora is the least of our issues.They also had a major culture change with Bochy, probably the best manager of any of our lifetimes.
Right! At least there I think the Sox are in good shape, Cora is the least of our issues.They also had a major culture change with Bochy, probably the best manager of any of our lifetimes.
We'll see. I'll judge by the final product. But at the moment the payroll is ~ $30 mil lower than last year, with options diminishing. You can come up with a reason for not singing each guy on an individual basis, and they all have some validity, but those reasons were there in October when Kenney and Werner ran their mouths. What did they think was going to happen?I think it's important to remember that this offseason has been really irregular. It's been one protracted free agent market hold up after another. First was Ohtani, next was Yamamoto (tethered to a Jan. 4 posting deadline), now Imanaga (tethered to another posting deadline of Jan. 11), and then there may be another one if Boras makes a final standoff for his four guys.
I think too many people are using these vaguely sourced, "talked to someone who said"-style reports to ratify an ongoing feeling of disappointment into something much larger, almost conspiratorial. It seems like every few days, someone proffers a speculation or a feeling about what the FO might be doing, or might be mandating. That feeling gets stirred into the water until becomes a kind of fact, and we're all supposed to accept it as the common ground.
That seems wrong, to me. I don't think it's malpractice that the Sox didn't sign Nola (who wanted to stay in Philadelphia), didn't sign Gray (who wanted to sign with the Cardinals), didn't sign E-Rod (who has a complicated familial thing going on and may not get along with our manager), didn't sign Yamamoto (who wanted to play in Los Angeles), and possibly won't sign Montgomery (whose "first choice" is returning to Texas) or Snell (who wants to play on the West Coast). I hope we do sign Imanaga, but who knows. Again and again, we see that these decisions are about more than money.
What I'm seeing Breslow do is try to address our team's needs not with our prospect core, but by trading ill-fits on our 26-man roster, guys he may view as mistakes by previous GMs. I did not expect that Chris Sale would bring us our (ideally) starting 2B for the next six years. I think it'd be kind of rude to trade Yoshida, who I like as a bounce back candidate, but it's possible that a team like the Angels, Padres or Cubs value him enough that they could put together a deal with one of their own pricey players. (They are rumored to want to get rid of the Tyler Anderson contract, a guy Bailey worked with in San Francisco. Take a look at how Anderson and Montgomery compare over their 2021-22 seasons). Maybe something like Yoshida and Yorke for Anderson and Canning works for both sides?
I think we should just wait and see. I mean, I'm guilty of using a little bit of kettle logic myself ("I don't think it's true that the Sox aren't going to spend — but if it is true, then it's because they're going to spend next year"). But what I'm seeing is a mountain of evidence that the Sox intend to be competitive, like this:
compared with the evidence we aren't not spending, not intending to compete, or becoming a small-market team:
- The firing of Chaim Bloom
- Their public statements that two consecutive last-place finishes are unacceptable
- Their public statements that they have the resources and that finances won't be a limiting factor
- A far better emerging prospect core than we had entering the 2022 season
- The well documented fact that this offseason is slow to develop across the board, not just in Boston
- The fact that despite this slowness, the Sox are among the top six or seven most active teams in MLB so far, according to the transaction log, with three major trades and one major signing (behind the Dodgers of course, and comparable with KC's four modest FA signings and one trade; and the Braves, Mariners, Giants and maybe Padres)
- National reports that the Sox are or have been among teams interested in Yamamoto, Montgomery, Imanaga, Hernández, Soler, Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Amed Rosario
- The fact that no one heard whispers about the Sale trade until it happened
- Masslive's vague reports sourced almost certainly from self-interested player agents or rivals that we are "behaving like a small-market team" or intend to move players on guaranteed contracts
- A supposed bombshell report that our payroll was not to exceed the luxury tax in 2023 in order to reset the CBT penalty — which we already knew was the plan — the spirit of which ignores and directly contradicts national reporting that we were in on a pitcher with a $43 million 2023 salary last summer
- Unsubstantiated whispers from various Twitter personalities that Breslow is not permitted to offer contracts exceeding two years (which directly contradicts our sustained interest in Yamamoto, Montgomery and Imanaga as reported by national reporters)
He’s too good for us. The Yankees paid up in prospects to pay Soto 30mm this year. They aren’t losing him because the Red Sox won an open market bidding on their incumbent. If he hates NYY and whole thing goes to hell, then the Sox just lose out to a different ’bigger’ market team.Can they though? They are loaded with long term deals compared to us. I mean they could. But if we wanted to, we could actually win that tug of war finally.
Are the options diminishing though? We've seen absolutely no movement on Montgomery or Snell league-wide, for example. Same can be said for about a dozen other quality free agents (who could all have varying degrees of fit with the Sox roster). I agree with you in that the Sox are waiting, but I don't think it's necessarily to have "their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years." It could well be that they like Montgomery at, say, five years but Boras is still out there demanding 7+ for him. That demand could certainly come down the closer Montgomery gets to spring training without a contract, to the point that maybe he says yes to 5/125 or something like that.We'll see. I'll judge by the final product. But at the moment the payroll is ~ $30 mil lower than last year, with options diminishing. You can come up with a reason for not singing each guy on an individual basis, and they all have some validity, but those reasons were there in October when Kenney and Werner ran their mouths. What did they think was going to happen?
My guess -- the Sox are waiting to have their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years, which gets them closer to the tax threshold, but it's not enough to keep "full throttle" from replacing "more days in first place" on the infamy scale.
Are the options diminishing though? We've seen absolutely no movement on Montgomery or Snell league-wide, for example. Same can be said for about a dozen other quality free agents (who could all have varying degrees of fit with the Sox roster). I agree with you in that the Sox are waiting, but I don't think it's necessarily to have "their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years." It could well be that they like Montgomery at, say, five years but Boras is still out there demanding 7+ for him. That demand could certainly come down the closer Montgomery gets to spring training without a contract, to the point that maybe he says yes to 5/125 or something like that.
I provide that as a wild guess example more so than what I want/hope to see happen, but the fact is that the whole market is going slow. All we're doing here is reading tea leaves being put out by guys who are trying to read tea leaves put out by teams and agents. I don't think anything is clear at all, least of all what the Red Sox actual plan is for this season.
You're forgetting this.The "small market" team thing is a strawman. I don't think I have read a single thing anywhere that says that the Sox intend to be "small market".
Don't disagree, necessarily. I've advocated for years for them to acquire prospects via taking on other teams' bad salaries. One problem is that teams don't quite have them like they used to, after the voluntary and vaguely collusive austerity years of in 2016-19, and then a couple of weird pandemic years.The issue at hand is if the Red Sox intend to spend up to the 1st LT or break it. This year is a prime opportunity for them to go over and then reset when contracts come off the books next year.
You probably should. There's a reason the local guys don't have anything but speculation: the front office doesn't leak. All of the Red Sox news so far has been broken by national reporters. I'm sure the occasional second or third-hand nugget of info gets to them, and maybe McAdam has a friend somewhere in the FO who will listen to him speculate and tell him whether he's way off base.I'm not going to get into the whole "national" vs. "local" or pretend that one sourced news is better than the other.
Oh wow I hadn't heard that one.Based off of the public statements by Werner ("full throttle") and the ownership group, you would expect them to spend. Let's see if they do and how the rest of the offseason.
He's a DV guy and I don't want to talk about him, let alone watch him pitch.Is there a reason nobody is talking about Mike Clevinger?
Oh! Totally missed that. Never mind, I agree with you.He's a DV guy and I don't want to talk about him, let alone watch him pitch.
Agree with much of this post but I think you get too comfortable repeating the bolded as gospel.….
You probably should. There's a reason the local guys don't have anything but speculation: the front office doesn't leak. All of the Red Sox news so far has been broken by national reporters. I'm sure the occasional second or third-hand nugget of info gets to them, and maybe McAdam has a friend somewhere in the FO who will listen to him speculate and tell him whether he's way off base.
…
I am not a huge believer in windows 2-3 years away - I am not sure prospects are ever that certain and there is a lot of volatility season to season that is pretty unpredictable.
A team with Soler, for example, could have at least 4 30 HR's guys (Casas, Soler, O'neil, Devers) and if Giolito recovers his form the starting pitching could be surprisingly good.
There was a post here just the other day speculating that the Red Sox had a secret agreement with Paxton based on nothing but the poster's hunch but speculating based on information provided by reporters is a bridge too far?I think it's important to remember that this offseason has been really irregular. It's been one protracted free agent market hold up after another. First was Ohtani, next was Yamamoto (tethered to a Jan. 4 posting deadline), now Imanaga (tethered to another posting deadline of Jan. 11), and then there may be another one if Boras makes a final standoff for his four guys.
I think too many people are using these vaguely sourced, "talked to someone who said"-style reports to ratify an ongoing feeling of disappointment into something much larger, almost conspiratorial. It seems like every few days, someone proffers a speculation or a feeling about what the FO might be doing, or might be mandating. That feeling gets stirred into the water until becomes a kind of fact, and we're all supposed to accept it as the common ground.
That seems wrong, to me. I don't think it's malpractice that the Sox didn't sign Nola (who wanted to stay in Philadelphia), didn't sign Gray (who wanted to sign with the Cardinals), didn't sign E-Rod (who has a complicated familial thing going on and may not get along with our manager), didn't sign Yamamoto (who wanted to play in Los Angeles), and possibly won't sign Montgomery (whose "first choice" is returning to Texas) or Snell (who wants to play on the West Coast). I hope we do sign Imanaga, but who knows. Again and again, we see that these decisions are about more than money.
Uhhh, yes? If I were reporting on the Red Sox, I would not publish something that I am otherwise wondering aloud on a message board.There was a post here just the other day speculating that the Red Sox had a secret agreement with Paxton based on nothing but the poster's hunch but speculating based on information provided by reporters is a bridge too far?
But your complaint seems to be posters speculating about reports from actual reporters. Slant and spin aside, they aren't making this stuff up based on a hunch.Uhhh, yes? If I were reporting on the Red Sox, I would not publish something that I am otherwise wondering aloud on a message board.
Unfortunately only one of whom is able to play acceptable defense.A team with Soler, for example, could have at least 4 30 HR's guys (Casas, Soler, O'neil, Devers) and if Giolito recovers his form the starting pitching could be surprisingly good.
View: https://twitter.com/yordimlb/status/1744767434207240326?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDAView: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1744467139665232337?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
Spoke to some this morning who were not under the impression anything was close between Jorge Soler and the Red Sox. Believed many teams are in on him, including Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins and Blue Jays.
They could have 4 players who are natural DHs. Wasn't that the secret to their success last year?Unfortunately only one of whom is able to play acceptable defense.
I get that they have not worked out this far but I think it’s a bit unfair to put it this way. They’ve taken the consensus best pick available to them each time. Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.I get wanting to emulate Texas's ring this year, but haven't their first picks the last 3 years been terrible?
Another way that I'm looking at it, at least, is that often times those guys are going to have a ton of trade value.I get that they have not worked out this far but I think it’s a bit unfair to put it this way. They’ve taken the consensus best pick available to them each time. Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.
It highlights why it is so risky banking those pics on arms. They picked Langford this year, OF, who could have been picked first overall many years. Like Crews taken before him he’s killed it.
I wouldn’t want to be the one building a draft strategy. You lose on pitching more than the other side of the ball yet developing high end pitching talent is essential.
Your going to offer Texas a closer and set up guy that should go a long way toward solidifying the back end of what was a shaky bullpen as well as a solid bottom of the rotation guy/bullpen arm AND $30-32M in cash for Leiter? I'm not convinced that the guy is broken at this early stage of his career, but if we're tearing it down before the season even starts I would think that amount of talent and that amount of $$$ might be able to return something more. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like there is a huge risk against the reward that a lot of these recent top pitching picks haven't been living up to.Another way that I'm looking at it, at least, is that often times those guys are going to have a ton of trade value.
Case in point, Texas ostensibly could use some bullpen help. I don't know about anyone else, but I'd trade them Jansen, Martin and PIvetta covering 100% of their salaries for Jack Leiter in a quarter of a second, and I don't think Texas would do that because they'd probably get more for Leiter.
I think I've mentioned this before, but Sandy Alderson when he was running the A's talked about his having solid pitching prospects in his system was "money in the bank" that he could hold onto to eventually pitch for the big club or cash in to address other needs. Having an inventory of solid pitching prospects might be an even more valuable currency now than it was then.Another way that I'm looking at it, at least, is that often times those guys are going to have a ton of trade value.
Case in point, Texas ostensibly could use some bullpen help. I don't know about anyone else, but I'd trade them Jansen, Martin and PIvetta for Jack Leiter in a quarter of a second, and I don't think Texas would do that because they'd probably get more for Leiter. (Just as a point of reference, BTV considers Jansen, Martin and Pivetta for Leiter to be almost an exactly fair trade).
I think this is a spot-on post. I wanted to emphasize the bolded.I get that they have not worked out this far but I think it’s a bit unfair to put it this way. They’ve taken the consensus best pick available to them each time. Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.
It highlights why it is so risky banking those pics on arms. They picked Langford this year, OF, who could have been picked first overall many years. Like Crews taken before him he’s killed it.
I wouldn’t want to be the one building a draft strategy. You lose on pitching more than the other side of the ball yet developing high end pitching talent is essential.
In addition to Arson Judge, Carlos Correa signed with 3 different teams lol.This has to be one of the worst off-seasons I can recall in terms of reporters' accuracy in reporting rumors. And this coming off last year's Arson Judge debacle. Teams are presumably being a lot more guarded about rumors but it feels like there have been no solid rumors (aside from throwing a bunch of 'interested' teams against the wall) until after the player signs.
Eating their salaries might have been a bit far (and I actually got rid of that on my own) but the players in general, yes.Your going to offer Texas a closer and set up guy that should go a long way toward solidifying the back end of what was a shaky bullpen as well as a solid bottom of the rotation guy/bullpen arm AND $30-32M in cash for Leiter? I'm not convinced that the guy is broken at this early stage of his career, but if we're tearing it down before the season even starts I would think that amount of talent and that amount of $$$ might be able to return something more. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like there is a huge risk against the reward that a lot of these recent top pitching picks haven't been living up to.
Phillies have a ton of DHs. Big difference is that have a couple top of the rotation pieces.They could have 4 players who are natural DHs. Wasn't that the secret to their success last year?
Shaping up to be a lousy summah!We've been put in a position where we will have to deal top level prospects for pitching, when we could have signed pitching. At this point, I'd be absolutely stunned if they signed anyone of any real meaning.
It's an interesting point about the relative lack of 1st round pitching talent in the top 100, but with the way the draft is structured with bonus pools and slot savings, I think it's an incomplete way of looking at things. Especially because teams often sign top 50 caliber talent in the later rounds to above slot bonuses. So yes, plenty of the arms in the top 100 were taken outside the 1st round. But quite a few of those were 1st round talents that received 1st round bonuses. For example, MLB's highest ranked left handed pitching prospect (Kyle Harrison at #20 overall) was a 3rd rounder. But the Giants spent mid-1st round money signing him ($2.6M). Same goes for several other non-1sts in the top 100 like Jacob Misiorowski (late 2nd round, #36 overall prospect per MLB, $2.4M), Tink Hence (comp round B, #42 overall per MLB, $1.2M), AJ Smith-Shawver (7th round pick, #53 overall per MLB, $1M), etc.I think this is a spot-on post. I wanted to emphasize the bolded.
The industry wide shift away from using high draft picks on arms has nothing to do with not valuing the development of elite pitching. It's more important than ever to develop high end pitching. But over time it has become clear that using first-round draft picks on pitching doesn't lead to the development of elite arms as often as you'd expect. @burstnbloom has looked at the top 100 prospect lists and it's surprising how many of the pitchers were taken after the first round, and even after the second round. I can't recall his exact findings but maybe he can share again.
None of this means that first-round pitchers never pop! It also doesn't mean that there aren't special talents worth selecting in the first round. It just means that front offices increasingly feel like pitchers don't pop at a high enough rate to justify using top draft picks on them instead of on hitters with elite potential, who on average work out more often.
What it all means is that clubs seem to believe that developable arms can be found in the lower rounds of the draft and on the international free agent market. The Sox are one of the teams that have been doing fairly well when it comes to the latter. Breslow, of course, is said to be the maker of aces, so it won't surprise me if hunts for pitching in the dustier corners of the game. Then again, I believe it was @ehaz who pointed out that the Cubs paid some big first round bonuses for pitchers while Breslow was in Chicago. So...we'll see?
Right, Leiter hasn't been great so far, but I think many, many teams would've taken him in their shoes, even with Mayer still on the board.Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.
You're probably right about the exact wording. But I absolutely think that both Werner and Kennedy were intentionally trying to convey that they were serious about investing in the team to ensure that the last two years don't happen again. So he gets no sympathy form me.I think the "full throttle" comment was off the cuff and pretty unfortunate.
Full throttle is this year's Pessimist wineI think the "full throttle" comment was off the cuff and pretty unfortunate.
It doesn't really have much meaning, so I don't know why people are so hung up on it. Does it mean they are just trying to win this year? A lot of people seem to think it means they will spend a lot of money. But whatever, it's just language, it's not very interesting compared to their actual actions. All any sports teams do is try to tell everyone what they think they want to hear.I think the "full throttle" comment was off the cuff and pretty unfortunate.
I agree, but I wish they'd all just STFU about offseason plans until they actually go down. And that includes Breslow. What's the upside of saying that you need to be willing to trade prospects? Because either you are going to do it (at which point whatever excitement you were trying to generate with the initial comment will be generated) or you won't (at which point everyone will be mad and think you are full of shit). Just go full Belichick and say "best interest of the team" and let your actions speak for themselves.It doesn't really have much meaning, so I don't know why people are so hung up on it. Does it mean they are just trying to win this year? A lot of people seem to think it means they will spend a lot of money. But whatever, it's just language, it's not very interesting compared to their actual actions. All any sports teams do is try to tell everyone what they think they want to hear.
I would say insinuate instead of convey. Convey implies actual delivery.You're probably right about the exact wording. But I absolutely think that both Werner and Kennedy were intentionally trying to convey that they were serious about investing in the team to ensure that the last two years don't happen again. So he gets no sympathy form me.
The other thing is that the "full throttle" statement didn't happen in a vacuum.You're probably right about the exact wording. But I absolutely think that both Werner and Kennedy were intentionally trying to convey that they were serious about investing in the team to ensure that the last two years don't happen again. So he gets no sympathy form me.
I don't know why they can't be honest about certain things. If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty. I think it's the transparent misdirection and trying to tell people what they want to hear that really sets off the fanbase. [Well, the rational ones. The others... ]I agree, but I wish they'd all just STFU about offseason plans until they actually go down. And that includes Breslow. What's the upside of saying that you need to be willing to trade prospects? Because either you are going to do it (at which point whatever excitement you were trying to generate with the initial comment will be generated) or you won't (at which point everyone will be mad and think you are full of shit). Just go full Belichick and say "best interest of the team" and let your actions speak for themselves.
I tend to strongly agree with this, especially in a place like Boston (and pretty much all the Northeast) and with the success they’ve had. People would rather know where things stand than have their intelligence insulted by saying things like “we’re trying to win championships” and then sending out a product that it’s abundantly clear has norealistic chance of doing jack. It’s always better to under promise and over deliver.I don't know why they can't be honest about certain things. If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty. I think it's the transparent misdirection and trying to tell people what they want to hear that really sets off the fanbase. [Well, the rational ones. The others... ]
Ha ha ha.If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty.
My memory is a bit fuzzy, but I recall Theo's "bridge year" comments in December of 2009, causing a crap load of outrage in the local media.... Do you think if they said we were/are in bridge year that would go over well in todays climate? I feel like it would be like 2009, but on steroids.....I don't know why they can't be honest about certain things. If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty. I think it's the transparent misdirection and trying to tell people what they want to hear that really sets off the fanbase. [Well, the rational ones. The others... ]