Offseason rumors

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chawson

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I think it's important to remember that this offseason has been really irregular. It's been one protracted free agent market hold up after another. First was Ohtani, next was Yamamoto (tethered to a Jan. 4 posting deadline), now Imanaga (tethered to another posting deadline of Jan. 11), and then there may be another one if Boras makes a final standoff for his four guys.

I think too many people are using these vaguely sourced, "talked to someone who said"-style reports to ratify an ongoing feeling of disappointment into something much larger, almost conspiratorial. It seems like every few days, someone proffers a speculation or a feeling about what the FO might be doing, or might be mandating. That feeling gets stirred into the water until becomes a kind of fact, and we're all supposed to accept it as the common ground.

That seems wrong, to me. I don't think it's malpractice that the Sox didn't sign Nola (who wanted to stay in Philadelphia), didn't sign Gray (who wanted to sign with the Cardinals), didn't sign E-Rod (who has a complicated familial thing going on and may not get along with our manager), didn't sign Yamamoto (who wanted to play in Los Angeles), and possibly won't sign Montgomery (whose "first choice" is returning to Texas) or Snell (who wants to play on the West Coast). I hope we do sign Imanaga, but who knows. Again and again, we see that these decisions are about more than money.

What I'm seeing Breslow do is try to address our team's needs not with our prospect core, but by trading ill-fits on our 26-man roster, guys he may view as mistakes by previous GMs. I did not expect that Chris Sale would bring us our (ideally) starting 2B for the next six years. I think it'd be kind of rude to trade Yoshida, who I like as a bounce back candidate, but it's possible that a team like the Angels, Padres or Cubs value him enough that they could put together a deal with one of their own pricey players. (They are rumored to want to get rid of the Tyler Anderson contract, a guy Bailey worked with in San Francisco. Take a look at how Anderson and Montgomery compare over their 2021-22 seasons). Maybe something like Yoshida and Yorke for Anderson and Canning works for both sides?

I think we should just wait and see. I mean, I'm guilty of using a little bit of kettle logic myself ("I don't think it's true that the Sox aren't going to spend — but if it is true, then it's because they're going to spend next year"). But what I'm seeing is a mountain of evidence that the Sox intend to be competitive, like this:
  • The firing of Chaim Bloom
  • Their public statements that two consecutive last-place finishes are unacceptable
  • Their public statements that they have the resources and that finances won't be a limiting factor
  • A far better emerging prospect core than we had entering the 2022 season
  • The well documented fact that this offseason is slow to develop across the board, not just in Boston
  • The fact that despite this slowness, the Sox are among the top six or seven most active teams in MLB so far, according to the transaction log, with three major trades and one major signing (behind the Dodgers of course, and comparable with KC's four modest FA signings and one trade; and the Braves, Mariners, Giants and maybe Padres)
  • National reports that the Sox are or have been among teams interested in Yamamoto, Montgomery, Imanaga, Hernández, Soler, Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Amed Rosario, Yariel Rodriguez, and probably others I’m forgetting
  • The fact that no one heard whispers about the Sale trade until it happened
compared with the evidence we aren't not spending, not intending to compete, or becoming a small-market team:
  • Masslive's vague reports sourced almost certainly from self-interested player agents or rivals that we are "behaving like a small-market team" or intend to move players on guaranteed contracts
  • A supposed bombshell report that our payroll was not to exceed the luxury tax in 2023 in order to reset the CBT penalty — which we already knew was the plan — the spirit of which ignores and directly contradicts national reporting that we were in on a pitcher with a $43 million 2023 salary last summer
  • Unsubstantiated whispers from various Twitter personalities that Breslow is not permitted to offer contracts exceeding two years (which directly contradicts our sustained interest in Yamamoto, Montgomery and Imanaga as reported by national reporters)
 
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Auger34

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The "small market" team thing is a strawman. I don't think I have read a single thing anywhere that says that the Sox intend to be "small market".

@DeJesus Built My Hotrod said "Tampa Bay North", which means spending more money than Tampa but using the basic principles of building through the farm and not signing free agents (which most posters here seem to agree with for the time being). I dno't want to speak for him but I can almost guarantee he didn't mean that the team will cut spending by $150M.

The issue at hand is if the Red Sox intend to spend up to the 1st LT or break it. This year is a prime opportunity for them to go over and then reset when contracts come off the books next year.

I'm not going to get into the whole "national" vs. "local" or pretend that one sourced news is better than the other.

Based off of the public statements by Werner ("full throttle") and the ownership group, you would expect them to spend. Let's see if they do and how the rest of the offseason.
 

moondog80

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I think it's important to remember that this offseason has been really irregular. It's been one protracted free agent market hold up after another. First was Ohtani, next was Yamamoto (tethered to a Jan. 4 posting deadline), now Imanaga (tethered to another posting deadline of Jan. 11), and then there may be another one if Boras makes a final standoff for his four guys.

I think too many people are using these vaguely sourced, "talked to someone who said"-style reports to ratify an ongoing feeling of disappointment into something much larger, almost conspiratorial. It seems like every few days, someone proffers a speculation or a feeling about what the FO might be doing, or might be mandating. That feeling gets stirred into the water until becomes a kind of fact, and we're all supposed to accept it as the common ground.

That seems wrong, to me. I don't think it's malpractice that the Sox didn't sign Nola (who wanted to stay in Philadelphia), didn't sign Gray (who wanted to sign with the Cardinals), didn't sign E-Rod (who has a complicated familial thing going on and may not get along with our manager), didn't sign Yamamoto (who wanted to play in Los Angeles), and possibly won't sign Montgomery (whose "first choice" is returning to Texas) or Snell (who wants to play on the West Coast). I hope we do sign Imanaga, but who knows. Again and again, we see that these decisions are about more than money.

What I'm seeing Breslow do is try to address our team's needs not with our prospect core, but by trading ill-fits on our 26-man roster, guys he may view as mistakes by previous GMs. I did not expect that Chris Sale would bring us our (ideally) starting 2B for the next six years. I think it'd be kind of rude to trade Yoshida, who I like as a bounce back candidate, but it's possible that a team like the Angels, Padres or Cubs value him enough that they could put together a deal with one of their own pricey players. (They are rumored to want to get rid of the Tyler Anderson contract, a guy Bailey worked with in San Francisco. Take a look at how Anderson and Montgomery compare over their 2021-22 seasons). Maybe something like Yoshida and Yorke for Anderson and Canning works for both sides?

I think we should just wait and see. I mean, I'm guilty of using a little bit of kettle logic myself ("I don't think it's true that the Sox aren't going to spend — but if it is true, then it's because they're going to spend next year"). But what I'm seeing is a mountain of evidence that the Sox intend to be competitive, like this:
  • The firing of Chaim Bloom
  • Their public statements that two consecutive last-place finishes are unacceptable
  • Their public statements that they have the resources and that finances won't be a limiting factor
  • A far better emerging prospect core than we had entering the 2022 season
  • The well documented fact that this offseason is slow to develop across the board, not just in Boston
  • The fact that despite this slowness, the Sox are among the top six or seven most active teams in MLB so far, according to the transaction log, with three major trades and one major signing (behind the Dodgers of course, and comparable with KC's four modest FA signings and one trade; and the Braves, Mariners, Giants and maybe Padres)
  • National reports that the Sox are or have been among teams interested in Yamamoto, Montgomery, Imanaga, Hernández, Soler, Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Amed Rosario
  • The fact that no one heard whispers about the Sale trade until it happened
compared with the evidence we aren't not spending, not intending to compete, or becoming a small-market team:
  • Masslive's vague reports sourced almost certainly from self-interested player agents or rivals that we are "behaving like a small-market team" or intend to move players on guaranteed contracts
  • A supposed bombshell report that our payroll was not to exceed the luxury tax in 2023 in order to reset the CBT penalty — which we already knew was the plan — the spirit of which ignores and directly contradicts national reporting that we were in on a pitcher with a $43 million 2023 salary last summer
  • Unsubstantiated whispers from various Twitter personalities that Breslow is not permitted to offer contracts exceeding two years (which directly contradicts our sustained interest in Yamamoto, Montgomery and Imanaga as reported by national reporters)
We'll see. I'll judge by the final product. But at the moment the payroll is ~ $30 mil lower than last year, with options diminishing. You can come up with a reason for not singing each guy on an individual basis, and they all have some validity, but those reasons were there in October when Kenney and Werner ran their mouths. What did they think was going to happen?

My guess -- the Sox are waiting to have their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years, which gets them closer to the tax threshold, but it's not enough to keep "full throttle" from replacing "more days in first place" on the infamy scale.
 

sezwho

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Can they though? They are loaded with long term deals compared to us. I mean they could. But if we wanted to, we could actually win that tug of war finally.
He’s too good for us. The Yankees paid up in prospects to pay Soto 30mm this year. They aren’t losing him because the Red Sox won an open market bidding on their incumbent. If he hates NYY and whole thing goes to hell, then the Sox just lose out to a different ’bigger’ market team.

Toronto was fairly reliably in on Ohtani as well, they aren’t going away either.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We'll see. I'll judge by the final product. But at the moment the payroll is ~ $30 mil lower than last year, with options diminishing. You can come up with a reason for not singing each guy on an individual basis, and they all have some validity, but those reasons were there in October when Kenney and Werner ran their mouths. What did they think was going to happen?

My guess -- the Sox are waiting to have their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years, which gets them closer to the tax threshold, but it's not enough to keep "full throttle" from replacing "more days in first place" on the infamy scale.
Are the options diminishing though? We've seen absolutely no movement on Montgomery or Snell league-wide, for example. Same can be said for about a dozen other quality free agents (who could all have varying degrees of fit with the Sox roster). I agree with you in that the Sox are waiting, but I don't think it's necessarily to have "their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years." It could well be that they like Montgomery at, say, five years but Boras is still out there demanding 7+ for him. That demand could certainly come down the closer Montgomery gets to spring training without a contract, to the point that maybe he says yes to 5/125 or something like that.

I provide that as a wild guess example more so than what I want/hope to see happen, but the fact is that the whole market is going slow. All we're doing here is reading tea leaves being put out by guys who are trying to read tea leaves put out by teams and agents. I don't think anything is clear at all, least of all what the Red Sox actual plan is for this season.
 

Trapaholic

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I think the "Full Throttle" remark was an off-the-cuff statement made by Warner that was not pre-planned. In my view, he was out there for a big press conference to announce the new CBO and got a little ahead of himself. Problem is that we can only take people at their word, and when someone who is in the actual ownership group says that, there are going to be some expectations.

The other issue is that "full throttle" was not something leaked to news outlets. We all saw him say it.

Theo got some heat for saying the term "bridge year". If I remember correctly, the following year they signed Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Again, those 2 moves did not work out either.

Anyways, it is going to boil down to how the team on the field performs. If this 2024 squad can squeak into a Wild Card, I think it will produce a lot of good will towards ownership and the front office. They won't be over a barrel in terms of payroll, and they'll still have the top prospects waiting in the wings.

My point is this: I am not sure anyone on here expected the Red Sox to blow a half billion dollars this winter. I think the die-hards among us expect competitiveness and meaningful September games. Its a perfectly fair expectation for the Boston Red Sox. My big concern is that there are so many things that "could go either way" and players with high variance. If we are staring down the barrel of another meaningless September, that will be a gut punch.
 

moondog80

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Are the options diminishing though? We've seen absolutely no movement on Montgomery or Snell league-wide, for example. Same can be said for about a dozen other quality free agents (who could all have varying degrees of fit with the Sox roster). I agree with you in that the Sox are waiting, but I don't think it's necessarily to have "their pick of the guys willing to sign for one or two years." It could well be that they like Montgomery at, say, five years but Boras is still out there demanding 7+ for him. That demand could certainly come down the closer Montgomery gets to spring training without a contract, to the point that maybe he says yes to 5/125 or something like that.

I provide that as a wild guess example more so than what I want/hope to see happen, but the fact is that the whole market is going slow. All we're doing here is reading tea leaves being put out by guys who are trying to read tea leaves put out by teams and agents. I don't think anything is clear at all, least of all what the Red Sox actual plan is for this season.

Of course the options are diminishing. They're not completely gone. But 10 of the top 15 starters to hit FA (using Fangraphs' projections) are no longer available. They can still make impactful moves, and maybe they will. But without question, there are fewer possibilities.
 

chrisfont9

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Is there a reason nobody is talking about Mike Clevinger? He seems like an ideal candidate for a two-year deal, having bounced back from TJ to last year, where he was meh for the first month but pretty solid after that, with his velocity coming back up. He missed some time with a wrist injury too, only making 24 starts, but was fine after that. All of his peripherals are above average except k rate, and he has a long track record of success. About the only thing is that he's more of a FB pitcher, so maybe his numbers in Fenway would suffer some, but at the right price he could be useful.
Reminded below he has DV issues, ignore.
 
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chawson

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The "small market" team thing is a strawman. I don't think I have read a single thing anywhere that says that the Sox intend to be "small market".
You're forgetting this.

The issue at hand is if the Red Sox intend to spend up to the 1st LT or break it. This year is a prime opportunity for them to go over and then reset when contracts come off the books next year.
Don't disagree, necessarily. I've advocated for years for them to acquire prospects via taking on other teams' bad salaries. One problem is that teams don't quite have them like they used to, after the voluntary and vaguely collusive austerity years of in 2016-19, and then a couple of weird pandemic years.

But one problem with loading up on expensive one-year contracts — besides the obvious point that free agents are not products on a shelf and have to want to sign — is that we have a finite number of roster spots and a finite amount of playing time at the major league level. It's kind of silly to play a declining veteran (like Seth Lugo) at the opportunity cost of stalling a developing pre-arb guy (like Kutter Crawford).

I'm not going to get into the whole "national" vs. "local" or pretend that one sourced news is better than the other.
You probably should. There's a reason the local guys don't have anything but speculation: the front office doesn't leak. All of the Red Sox news so far has been broken by national reporters. I'm sure the occasional second or third-hand nugget of info gets to them, and maybe McAdam has a friend somewhere in the FO who will listen to him speculate and tell him whether he's way off base.

One clue here is that Cotillo has been willing to use verbatim quotes for anonymous sources in the past. He hasn't done that on any of his recent reporting about this. So if he hears, say, that the Sox want to trade Jansen before they spend aggressively on Robert Stephenson (a move that would have 40-man repercussions), he's able to repackage that as though the Sox want to move payroll.

Based off of the public statements by Werner ("full throttle") and the ownership group, you would expect them to spend. Let's see if they do and how the rest of the offseason.
Oh wow I hadn't heard that one.
 

TomRicardo

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  • The firing of Chaim Bloom
Congratulations on fire the worst GM in 40 years. It was a terrible hire from the get go but I guess it was somewhat defendable. Year 1 things started to look bad by Year 3 you know there was serious problem. But you gave him two more years and didn't even reasonable set expectation as he was surprised he was fired after he botched the trade deadline. Then again you needed a scapegoat to drastically cut payroll while raising prices, and by god did Bloom deliver on that front. So good job by Sam Kennedy I guess.
  • Their public statements that two consecutive last-place finishes are unacceptable
That is like saying you are against murdering puppies. Of course that is unacceptable especially when are selling tickets at $170 a pop on average.
  • Their public statements that they have the resources and that finances won't be a limiting factor
Yes, we will be willing to spend enough to be the runner up on every major free agent then spend lavishly on middling talent. Outside of Devers extension they have not signed multiyear contract that has made any sense. They have overpaid consistently for meh talent
  • A far better emerging prospect core than we had entering the 2022 season
They sat on their hands and waited for the farm to mature with only three major pick ups in the last four years. Two from being bottoming out and one they wisely over spent on in the second round. It would help if they would start developing latter round talent and going after international free agents again.
  • The well documented fact that this offseason is slow to develop across the board, not just in Boston
This reminds me of my favorite Simpsons episode, "You Only Move Twice"

  • The fact that despite this slowness, the Sox are among the top six or seven most active teams in MLB so far, according to the transaction log, with three major trades and one major signing (behind the Dodgers of course, and comparable with KC's four modest FA signings and one trade; and the Braves, Mariners, Giants and maybe Padres)
What is your definition of major trade? The Sox made one good trade but I wouldn't call it a major trade. I also wouldn't call Giolito and his pseudo multi year contract a major signing.
  • National reports that the Sox are or have been among teams interested in Yamamoto, Montgomery, Imanaga, Hernández, Soler, Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Amed Rosario
Many people on this board are interested in dating Jennifer Lawrence, Margot Robbie, Ana de Armas, and Ryan Gosling. Who knew they so eligible suitors posting here?
  • The fact that no one heard whispers about the Sale trade until it happened
Ok there William Wright.

I am fairly bullish on Craig Breslow but right I have zero evidence that Sam Kennedy and his band of merry millionaires ft. LeBron James will do anything other than to attempt to pick pocket me and try to sell me on the idea that they were trying to lighten my load. And I am going to pick on Sam Kennedy who has a track record of selling bullshit and hope to people while delivering terrible sports results. Ask the fine people of Toronto. Say what you will about Lucchiano the dude would not have put up with Bloom Ball for four years.
 

RS2004foreever

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I am not a huge believer in windows 2-3 years away - I am not sure prospects are ever that certain and there is a lot of volatility season to season that is pretty unpredictable.
A team with Soler, for example, could have at least 4 30 HR's guys (Casas, Soler, O'neil, Devers) and if Giolito recovers his form the starting pitching could be surprisingly good.
 

sezwho

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….

You probably should. There's a reason the local guys don't have anything but speculation: the front office doesn't leak. All of the Red Sox news so far has been broken by national reporters. I'm sure the occasional second or third-hand nugget of info gets to them, and maybe McAdam has a friend somewhere in the FO who will listen to him speculate and tell him whether he's way off base.
Agree with much of this post but I think you get too comfortable repeating the bolded as gospel.

First, this FO absolutely leaks, it just does so in a proactive way for favorable messaging.

Second, even if I accepted your premise (which I don’t : ) there are other sources than just the FO that can give them the ‘something’ that you quoted in the post opening.

To be fair, your posts typically reflect nuance so maybe we agree more than it first appears.
 

BeantownIdaho

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I am not a huge believer in windows 2-3 years away - I am not sure prospects are ever that certain and there is a lot of volatility season to season that is pretty unpredictable.
A team with Soler, for example, could have at least 4 30 HR's guys (Casas, Soler, O'neil, Devers) and if Giolito recovers his form the starting pitching could be surprisingly good.

If we added Imanga and Stroman to the staff and used our surplus (OF, RP, SP) to get a needed piece... maybe even at the deadline depending on circumstances, I would be happy moving into the Spring.
 

NickEsasky

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I think it's important to remember that this offseason has been really irregular. It's been one protracted free agent market hold up after another. First was Ohtani, next was Yamamoto (tethered to a Jan. 4 posting deadline), now Imanaga (tethered to another posting deadline of Jan. 11), and then there may be another one if Boras makes a final standoff for his four guys.

I think too many people are using these vaguely sourced, "talked to someone who said"-style reports to ratify an ongoing feeling of disappointment into something much larger, almost conspiratorial. It seems like every few days, someone proffers a speculation or a feeling about what the FO might be doing, or might be mandating. That feeling gets stirred into the water until becomes a kind of fact, and we're all supposed to accept it as the common ground.

That seems wrong, to me. I don't think it's malpractice that the Sox didn't sign Nola (who wanted to stay in Philadelphia), didn't sign Gray (who wanted to sign with the Cardinals), didn't sign E-Rod (who has a complicated familial thing going on and may not get along with our manager), didn't sign Yamamoto (who wanted to play in Los Angeles), and possibly won't sign Montgomery (whose "first choice" is returning to Texas) or Snell (who wants to play on the West Coast). I hope we do sign Imanaga, but who knows. Again and again, we see that these decisions are about more than money.
There was a post here just the other day speculating that the Red Sox had a secret agreement with Paxton based on nothing but the poster's hunch but speculating based on information provided by reporters is a bridge too far?
 

chawson

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There was a post here just the other day speculating that the Red Sox had a secret agreement with Paxton based on nothing but the poster's hunch but speculating based on information provided by reporters is a bridge too far?
Uhhh, yes? If I were reporting on the Red Sox, I would not publish something that I am otherwise wondering aloud on a message board.
 

NickEsasky

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Uhhh, yes? If I were reporting on the Red Sox, I would not publish something that I am otherwise wondering aloud on a message board.
But your complaint seems to be posters speculating about reports from actual reporters. Slant and spin aside, they aren't making this stuff up based on a hunch.
 

geoflin

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A team with Soler, for example, could have at least 4 30 HR's guys (Casas, Soler, O'neil, Devers) and if Giolito recovers his form the starting pitching could be surprisingly good.
Unfortunately only one of whom is able to play acceptable defense.
 

chawson

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View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1744467139665232337?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ


Spoke to some this morning who were not under the impression anything was close between Jorge Soler and the Red Sox. Believed many teams are in on him, including Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins and Blue Jays.
View: https://twitter.com/yordimlb/status/1744767434207240326?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


Soler himself says “there has been no contact with the Marlins,” partially contradicting the belief of Cotillo’s source.
 

AlNipper49

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I get wanting to emulate Texas's ring this year, but haven't their first picks the last 3 years been terrible?
I get that they have not worked out this far but I think it’s a bit unfair to put it this way. They’ve taken the consensus best pick available to them each time. Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.

It highlights why it is so risky banking those pics on arms. They picked Langford this year, OF, who could have been picked first overall many years. Like Crews taken before him he’s killed it.

I wouldn’t want to be the one building a draft strategy. You lose on pitching more than the other side of the ball yet developing high end pitching talent is essential.
 

manny

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This has to be one of the worst off-seasons I can recall in terms of reporters' accuracy in reporting rumors. And this coming off last year's Arson Judge debacle. Teams are presumably being a lot more guarded about rumors but it feels like there have been no solid rumors (aside from throwing a bunch of 'interested' teams against the wall) until after the player signs.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I get that they have not worked out this far but I think it’s a bit unfair to put it this way. They’ve taken the consensus best pick available to them each time. Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.

It highlights why it is so risky banking those pics on arms. They picked Langford this year, OF, who could have been picked first overall many years. Like Crews taken before him he’s killed it.

I wouldn’t want to be the one building a draft strategy. You lose on pitching more than the other side of the ball yet developing high end pitching talent is essential.
Another way that I'm looking at it, at least, is that often times those guys are going to have a ton of trade value.

Case in point, Texas ostensibly could use some bullpen help. I don't know about anyone else, but I'd trade them Jansen, Martin and PIvetta for Jack Leiter in a quarter of a second, and I don't think Texas would do that because they'd probably get more for Leiter. (Just as a point of reference, BTV considers Jansen, Martin and Pivetta for Leiter to be almost an exactly fair trade).
 

YTF

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Another way that I'm looking at it, at least, is that often times those guys are going to have a ton of trade value.

Case in point, Texas ostensibly could use some bullpen help. I don't know about anyone else, but I'd trade them Jansen, Martin and PIvetta covering 100% of their salaries for Jack Leiter in a quarter of a second, and I don't think Texas would do that because they'd probably get more for Leiter.
Your going to offer Texas a closer and set up guy that should go a long way toward solidifying the back end of what was a shaky bullpen as well as a solid bottom of the rotation guy/bullpen arm AND $30-32M in cash for Leiter? I'm not convinced that the guy is broken at this early stage of his career, but if we're tearing it down before the season even starts I would think that amount of talent and that amount of $$$ might be able to return something more. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like there is a huge risk against the reward that a lot of these recent top pitching picks haven't been living up to.
 

Harry Hooper

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Another way that I'm looking at it, at least, is that often times those guys are going to have a ton of trade value.

Case in point, Texas ostensibly could use some bullpen help. I don't know about anyone else, but I'd trade them Jansen, Martin and PIvetta for Jack Leiter in a quarter of a second, and I don't think Texas would do that because they'd probably get more for Leiter. (Just as a point of reference, BTV considers Jansen, Martin and Pivetta for Leiter to be almost an exactly fair trade).
I think I've mentioned this before, but Sandy Alderson when he was running the A's talked about his having solid pitching prospects in his system was "money in the bank" that he could hold onto to eventually pitch for the big club or cash in to address other needs. Having an inventory of solid pitching prospects might be an even more valuable currency now than it was then.

Of course, reducing the number of minor league teams you have in your system to save money across MLB is a nice gift from the wealthier teams to the poorer teams. You lose slots that would give you more bites at the apple in terms of young pitching.
 
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BringBackMo

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I get that they have not worked out this far but I think it’s a bit unfair to put it this way. They’ve taken the consensus best pick available to them each time. Leiter, for example, was exactly who they should have taken there.

It highlights why it is so risky banking those pics on arms. They picked Langford this year, OF, who could have been picked first overall many years. Like Crews taken before him he’s killed it.

I wouldn’t want to be the one building a draft strategy. You lose on pitching more than the other side of the ball yet developing high end pitching talent is essential.
I think this is a spot-on post. I wanted to emphasize the bolded.

The industry wide shift away from using high draft picks on arms has nothing to do with not valuing the development of elite pitching. It's more important than ever to develop high end pitching. But over time it has become clear that using first-round draft picks on pitching doesn't lead to the development of elite arms as often as you'd expect. @burstnbloom has looked at the top 100 prospect lists and it's surprising how many of the pitchers were taken after the first round, and even after the second round. I can't recall his exact findings but maybe he can share again.

None of this means that first-round pitchers never pop! It also doesn't mean that there aren't special talents worth selecting in the first round. It just means that front offices increasingly feel like pitchers don't pop at a high enough rate to justify using top draft picks on them instead of on hitters with elite potential, who on average work out more often.

What it all means is that clubs seem to believe that developable arms can be found in the lower rounds of the draft and on the international free agent market. The Sox are one of the teams that have been doing fairly well when it comes to the latter. Breslow, of course, is said to be the maker of aces, so it won't surprise me if hunts for pitching in the dustier corners of the game. Then again, I believe it was @ehaz who pointed out that the Cubs paid some big first round bonuses for pitchers while Breslow was in Chicago. So...we'll see?
 

Trapaholic

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Jan 11, 2023
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This has to be one of the worst off-seasons I can recall in terms of reporters' accuracy in reporting rumors. And this coming off last year's Arson Judge debacle. Teams are presumably being a lot more guarded about rumors but it feels like there have been no solid rumors (aside from throwing a bunch of 'interested' teams against the wall) until after the player signs.
In addition to Arson Judge, Carlos Correa signed with 3 different teams lol.

Adding to the pitching conversation, I am keeping an eye on Paul Skenes this year. The guy is as close to a slam dunk pitching prospect as you could hope for. He may even be in the big leagues this season based on his age and the maturity of his game.

It is interesting because the baseball draft takes into consideration so many different things than skill alone

- age
- ability to be signed
- % of slot money
- # of years until the guy is theoretically in the big leagues. Quicker he gets there, more years of team control, more MLB production
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Your going to offer Texas a closer and set up guy that should go a long way toward solidifying the back end of what was a shaky bullpen as well as a solid bottom of the rotation guy/bullpen arm AND $30-32M in cash for Leiter? I'm not convinced that the guy is broken at this early stage of his career, but if we're tearing it down before the season even starts I would think that amount of talent and that amount of $$$ might be able to return something more. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like there is a huge risk against the reward that a lot of these recent top pitching picks haven't been living up to.
Eating their salaries might have been a bit far (and I actually got rid of that on my own) but the players in general, yes.

At least as we stand here today.

Obvious caveat - there is a lot of off-season left and free agents are out there and on and on. I accept those arguments from people on the board. I also accept that maybe - just maybe - Speier, and McAdam and Cotillo and Mazz and basically every reporter saying that the Sox aren't going to spend could also be right.

Just for the exercise, lets assume the reporters are right. I'd still try and trade anything in any number that isn't Bello, Casas, Grissom, Anthony or Teel for "Dylan Cease." If that doesn't get it done, and we assume the Red Sox go into the season with what they have in addition to "Jorge Soler" and "Mike Lorenzen", then yes, I'd absolutely trade Jansen, Martin and Pivetta for Jack Leiter. A 78 win team vs a 72 win team is totally irrelevant in my opinion, and if you go into a season with a rotation of "Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Lorenzen and Pivetta" pitching in Fenway Park in the AL East then you've already raised the white flag anyway, so might as well get by far the best pitching prospect in your system by miles for your trouble.
 
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GPO Man

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Apr 1, 2023
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The fact that there’s been a lot of misinformation on Imanaga hopefully means we have a legit chance to sign him, and there haven’t been leaks except “general interest.”
 

ehaz

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I think this is a spot-on post. I wanted to emphasize the bolded.

The industry wide shift away from using high draft picks on arms has nothing to do with not valuing the development of elite pitching. It's more important than ever to develop high end pitching. But over time it has become clear that using first-round draft picks on pitching doesn't lead to the development of elite arms as often as you'd expect. @burstnbloom has looked at the top 100 prospect lists and it's surprising how many of the pitchers were taken after the first round, and even after the second round. I can't recall his exact findings but maybe he can share again.

None of this means that first-round pitchers never pop! It also doesn't mean that there aren't special talents worth selecting in the first round. It just means that front offices increasingly feel like pitchers don't pop at a high enough rate to justify using top draft picks on them instead of on hitters with elite potential, who on average work out more often.

What it all means is that clubs seem to believe that developable arms can be found in the lower rounds of the draft and on the international free agent market. The Sox are one of the teams that have been doing fairly well when it comes to the latter. Breslow, of course, is said to be the maker of aces, so it won't surprise me if hunts for pitching in the dustier corners of the game. Then again, I believe it was @ehaz who pointed out that the Cubs paid some big first round bonuses for pitchers while Breslow was in Chicago. So...we'll see?
It's an interesting point about the relative lack of 1st round pitching talent in the top 100, but with the way the draft is structured with bonus pools and slot savings, I think it's an incomplete way of looking at things. Especially because teams often sign top 50 caliber talent in the later rounds to above slot bonuses. So yes, plenty of the arms in the top 100 were taken outside the 1st round. But quite a few of those were 1st round talents that received 1st round bonuses. For example, MLB's highest ranked left handed pitching prospect (Kyle Harrison at #20 overall) was a 3rd rounder. But the Giants spent mid-1st round money signing him ($2.6M). Same goes for several other non-1sts in the top 100 like Jacob Misiorowski (late 2nd round, #36 overall prospect per MLB, $2.4M), Tink Hence (comp round B, #42 overall per MLB, $1.2M), AJ Smith-Shawver (7th round pick, #53 overall per MLB, $1M), etc.

Actually, of the 28 starting pitchers in MLB's current top 100 list, I struggled to find more than a handful of non-1st rounders that were not signed to overslot bonuses:
  • Nick Frasso (#65 overall, 2020 4th rounder)
  • Gavin Stone (#79 overall, 2020 5th rounder)
  • Ben Brown (#86 overall, 2017 33rd(!) rounder)
That's it. Even if you throw in Chase Hampton (overslot 6th rounder but only $497k bonus so not super high over slot), that's four guys. They are also the only pitchers that signed for less than $500k. Most everyone else were first rounders, 2nd rounders, and mid/late round guys signed to 1st or 2nd rounder money ($1M+).

Here are the highest bonuses given to pitchers from Chaim Bloom's 4 drafts. They only went over slot for a bonus once (Drohan in 2020). No one other than these four guys even got $400k.
  1. 2020, 5th round: Shane Drohan for $600k (~$230k over slot).
  2. 2021, 3rd round: Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz for $497k (~$60k under slot).
  3. 2022, 3rd round: Dalton Rogers for $447k (~$160k under slot).
  4. 2023, 5th round: Connelly Early for $400k (full slot).
In those 4 drafts, they've given bonuses of $500k or higher to 15 draft picks. 14 position players and 1 pitcher (Drohan).
 
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Jack Rabbit Slim

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Is anyone else very intrigued by Harold Ramirez? 29 year old RHH DH/1B/LF who put OPS+ of 118 and 125 the last 2 years. He is not good defensively so he should mostly DH, but he has enough experience to backup Casas and Yoshida. He has 2 arb years remaining (maybe a total of $10-12M?) and would require a trade with TB, but given his defensive limitations I am not sure he would be all that costly. Aside from being terrified of giving up anyone TB asks for, he would seem to be a great bat for a team that wants to spend its money on pitching.

A Turner reunion would also be fine, but the 10 year age difference certainly makes him at risk of an age related skills collapse.

Edit - oh and Ramirez absolutely crushed LHP to the tune of a 0.966 OPS last year.
 
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moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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I think the "full throttle" comment was off the cuff and pretty unfortunate.
You're probably right about the exact wording. But I absolutely think that both Werner and Kennedy were intentionally trying to convey that they were serious about investing in the team to ensure that the last two years don't happen again. So he gets no sympathy form me.
 

chrisfont9

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I think the "full throttle" comment was off the cuff and pretty unfortunate.
It doesn't really have much meaning, so I don't know why people are so hung up on it. Does it mean they are just trying to win this year? A lot of people seem to think it means they will spend a lot of money. But whatever, it's just language, it's not very interesting compared to their actual actions. All any sports teams do is try to tell everyone what they think they want to hear.
 

moondog80

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It doesn't really have much meaning, so I don't know why people are so hung up on it. Does it mean they are just trying to win this year? A lot of people seem to think it means they will spend a lot of money. But whatever, it's just language, it's not very interesting compared to their actual actions. All any sports teams do is try to tell everyone what they think they want to hear.
I agree, but I wish they'd all just STFU about offseason plans until they actually go down. And that includes Breslow. What's the upside of saying that you need to be willing to trade prospects? Because either you are going to do it (at which point whatever excitement you were trying to generate with the initial comment will be generated) or you won't (at which point everyone will be mad and think you are full of shit). Just go full Belichick and say "best interest of the team" and let your actions speak for themselves.
 

TomRicardo

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You're probably right about the exact wording. But I absolutely think that both Werner and Kennedy were intentionally trying to convey that they were serious about investing in the team to ensure that the last two years don't happen again. So he gets no sympathy form me.
I would say insinuate instead of convey. Convey implies actual delivery.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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You're probably right about the exact wording. But I absolutely think that both Werner and Kennedy were intentionally trying to convey that they were serious about investing in the team to ensure that the last two years don't happen again. So he gets no sympathy form me.
The other thing is that the "full throttle" statement didn't happen in a vacuum.

They fired Bloom and it seemed natural to assume it had something to do with consecutive 78-84 seasons.

Then there were the comments of Alex Cora. I don't have the exact quotes, but what he basically said was that it was great that the team's farm system was looking a lot better, but all that really mattered was getting into October. He really put himself out there in a way that's a little unusual for a manager. It was hard to imagine him saying such things if he didn't think the front office was feeling the same and that they supported him speaking out about it.

Breslow also said something at his opening press conference about there not being financial restrictions on improving the team.

There were multiple signals sent out to the fans that this was going to be an aggressive offseason.
 

chrisfont9

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I agree, but I wish they'd all just STFU about offseason plans until they actually go down. And that includes Breslow. What's the upside of saying that you need to be willing to trade prospects? Because either you are going to do it (at which point whatever excitement you were trying to generate with the initial comment will be generated) or you won't (at which point everyone will be mad and think you are full of shit). Just go full Belichick and say "best interest of the team" and let your actions speak for themselves.
I don't know why they can't be honest about certain things. If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty. I think it's the transparent misdirection and trying to tell people what they want to hear that really sets off the fanbase. [Well, the rational ones. The others... ]
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I don't know why they can't be honest about certain things. If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty. I think it's the transparent misdirection and trying to tell people what they want to hear that really sets off the fanbase. [Well, the rational ones. The others... ]
I tend to strongly agree with this, especially in a place like Boston (and pretty much all the Northeast) and with the success they’ve had. People would rather know where things stand than have their intelligence insulted by saying things like “we’re trying to win championships” and then sending out a product that it’s abundantly clear has norealistic chance of doing jack. It’s always better to under promise and over deliver.

As to the - well, they have tickets to sell and what not, here’s the thing. They’re going to sell tickets from May through August regardless of how good the team is, because people come to see the park and the area. Maybe they sell a few more April tickets if they say they’re going to win, but it’s not like anyone really thinks a rotation of Bello, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta and ”Paxton” is going to topple the Os, Blue Jays and Yankees.

The team went through “some stuff” in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 and people still tended to care. So it’s not like there haven’t been lean years. But its not even that people are pissed any more (and they were following 2011 and for most of 2012 pre Punto trade). It’s that they really don’t care.

The 2021 team got a little of that back, and then that was followed up with an entirely uninspiring off-season and basically the knowledge that signing Story probably meant Bogaerts was gone.

I really think they’d be doing themselves more favors with an approach like “we really believe in our young players, and we hope by adding a few veterans to help them learn the game, we’ll have a sustainable team long term, and hope some things break right like 2013 or 2021.”

People I think would respect that. They STILL might tune out, but they’re already tuning out anyway, so why insult those who do tune in.
 

moondog80

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If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty.
Ha ha ha.

And TBH…they weren’t in rebuilding mode. Not completely anyway. The GFIN control is a dimmer switch, not an on/off button. It was around 6 or so last year, and that’s what it looks to be this year. Which is probably appropriate. And I get why they can’t say that. But grand statements done help either.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If they were in rebuilding mode before the 2022 and 2023 seasons, nobody here was talking about it. The goal was to be competitive. It’s why they didn’t make many moves at the deadline (a rebuilding team certainly would have sold off assets), and why they were signing veterans to short term deals. This idea that the team was rebuilding seems like something decided only after they had two lousy seasons.
 

simplicio

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There's rebuilding and there's tanking. We've very clearly been doing the former since 2020, but never the latter.
 

soxhop411

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I don't know why they can't be honest about certain things. If they told people in 2022 that they were in rebuilding mode, at least we would have respected the honesty. I think it's the transparent misdirection and trying to tell people what they want to hear that really sets off the fanbase. [Well, the rational ones. The others... ]
My memory is a bit fuzzy, but I recall Theo's "bridge year" comments in December of 2009, causing a crap load of outrage in the local media.... Do you think if they said we were/are in bridge year that would go over well in todays climate? I feel like it would be like 2009, but on steroids.....
 
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