Offseason rumors
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So, you’re the GM. What is your philosophy right now? Forget all this debate about which tier we are in.
First principle — do not spend over the cap for 2024 unless there is a very compelling reason to do so that gives you control at a good price in future years. They aren’t going to win the World Series in 2024. Even with the most free spenders in the world, there are actual on-field consequences to going over the cap. Maybe a bit overblown, but there is no reason to do it if you don’t need to. Or at least if you don’t have a real good reason.
So we have about $40 million to spend in 2024. How are you spending it? I would have spent $20 to $25 million of it to lock up YY for several years. But that didn’t happen. Beyond that? What’s next? There is nothing out there I want to invest long term in. I mean if the market is reasonable for Snell and Monty I look at them. Beyond that, I am looking for ways to get through 2024 with short commitments that don’t screw me for the years I really care about.
Basically, I am looking for something to fall into my lap, which happens in February or later most likely.
First principle — do not spend over the cap for 2024 unless there is a very compelling reason to do so that gives you control at a good price in future years. They aren’t going to win the World Series in 2024. Even with the most free spenders in the world, there are actual on-field consequences to going over the cap. Maybe a bit overblown, but there is no reason to do it if you don’t need to. Or at least if you don’t have a real good reason.
So we have about $40 million to spend in 2024. How are you spending it? I would have spent $20 to $25 million of it to lock up YY for several years. But that didn’t happen. Beyond that? What’s next? There is nothing out there I want to invest long term in. I mean if the market is reasonable for Snell and Monty I look at them. Beyond that, I am looking for ways to get through 2024 with short commitments that don’t screw me for the years I really care about.
Basically, I am looking for something to fall into my lap, which happens in February or later most likely.
The free agent seems really slow - and some have accepted shorter deals than maybe people would have expected.
Over the weekend I heard an interview with Mark Cuban and the NBA. He said the revenue from ESPN is really uncertain looking out 3-5 years. ESPN used to get $10 a month from 100 million people, about 40% of whom never watched ESPN. As people cut the cord this revenue will decline, and no one really knows if the NBA can replace that revenue via streaming.
This also applies to regional cable networks like NESN. NESN sees this coming which is why they are trying to sell the app, but I wonder if Henry (who is a finance guy after) looks forward and suspects there is a bubble in sports TV contracts. If other owners see the same thing it may explain why free agents are not finding the market they expected. The Dodgers local contract by the way runs through 2038 and they don't have this issue to some extent. But look what happened to Arizona.
Over the weekend I heard an interview with Mark Cuban and the NBA. He said the revenue from ESPN is really uncertain looking out 3-5 years. ESPN used to get $10 a month from 100 million people, about 40% of whom never watched ESPN. As people cut the cord this revenue will decline, and no one really knows if the NBA can replace that revenue via streaming.
This also applies to regional cable networks like NESN. NESN sees this coming which is why they are trying to sell the app, but I wonder if Henry (who is a finance guy after) looks forward and suspects there is a bubble in sports TV contracts. If other owners see the same thing it may explain why free agents are not finding the market they expected. The Dodgers local contract by the way runs through 2038 and they don't have this issue to some extent. But look what happened to Arizona.
Manage expectations. Forget about the cap, you aren't hitting the cap and you don't want to even be seen thinking about it after Bloom's disastrous four years. The fanbase, other than the most sycophantic of the Kennedy's PPs, is pissed off. There was literally no direction over the last four years other than shit fits over the market moving away from what Bloom thought it should be, cheering about being under the cap, and constantly winning silver medals with Free Agents. You can't screw around anymore.
You need to acknowledge the franchise is in the worst position it has been in 50 years and stick to a solid rebuilding plan. There are still teams like the As and the Marlins who refuse to spend money so you can grift them out of premium talent with prospects but you are going to need to rebuild the brand if you want people coming back to wanting to play for Boston. You can't charge people Dodger prices and put out Marlins results.
If the Sox find themselves in good position at the trade deadline, of course I hope that they do what Hazen did. I’d love to feel like we could compete every single year, but mortgaging any of this team’s long-term future — which appears bright — for a pipe dream of catching lightening in a bottle in 2024 in a very tough division is not optimal to me.
To the bolded... You're new here, right?Maybe it appears that way to you and others, but choosing not to sign individual players who do not want to be here, or more accurately with Gray, want to be somewhere else, doesn't signal anything of the kind. I'll also say that all the players the Sox have passed on have downside as well as upside. Not a great class.
But really, the bottom line is that what I quoted may be accurate in 6 weeks or so if nothing changes. As of now, the "small market" assertions aren't supportable, though lord knows some will try.I'd rather not see this place get bogged down in days and days unnecessary negativity every time a player signs somewhere else in the meantime.
There have been a couple of points mentioned, and @jacklamabe65 is spot on in that we need to see how this market shapes up. The market is somewhat insane right now as everyone is trying to ride on the coattails of the Ohtani trade, not only in terms of dollars, but also length of contract. Eventually the market will come back to earth, but its not going to be for the upper-tier guys as too many teams with significant cash available are chasing after them.
So if not filling out the rotation with a FA, my WAG is that Jensen gets traded for a three/four starter and Houck/Whitlock move to the pen with Houck becoming the closer.
This is right. No team other than the Dodgers has given out a long term contract this offseason. I don't think it's a coincidence that they have the most stable TV deal of any team. It looks like everyone else saw what happened to Diamond Sports and got spooked about what TV revenue is going to look like a few years down the road.
This might be true, but player salaries are actually quite low compared to other sports leagues. MLB exceeded $11B in revenue for 2023 and average team payroll was $125M or $3.75B for the thirty teams. Add in $500M in benefits and 40 man additional costs and thats still only $4.25B or less than 40%. All other sports have committed deals to provide 46-50% of revenue to the players. There is a ton of room for them to come up just to be similar to other pro sports.
This kinda ignores the fact that both NY teams and the Giants have been in on the big deals (with the Mets obviously initially beating the Dodgers initial offer) and that Montgomery and Snell are very likely to sign elsewhere no? You're placing a lot of work on the two large free agent deals that have actually been concluded.
As for a plan, it looks like right now the Sox are planning to use Roman Anthony as a piece to get a top line starter if they can and to keep Mayer. I guess this makes sense. They have a thousand OFs and 4/5/Long Relief guys. If they could get someone for Rafaela or Abreu they would but I mean Abreu doesn't have too much value. Personally I think keeping Rafaela as super sub / CF makes a ton of sense since he is a right handed bat.
If you can get rid of Story for anything at all you do it. If Giolito or Pivetta has a good first half of the season, they are gone as well. Jansen and Martin should be on the block in July as well. You need to be realistic coming into July 31st as well. Even if you can squint and see the WC, if five teams are ahead of you even by a couple of games you need to sell especially if there is a seller's market.
If you can get rid of Story for anything at all you do it. If Giolito or Pivetta has a good first half of the season, they are gone as well. Jansen and Martin should be on the block in July as well. You need to be realistic coming into July 31st as well. Even if you can squint and see the WC, if five teams are ahead of you even by a couple of games you need to sell especially if there is a seller's market.
Period? No it's not.
So now we're 2-3 years away now? Again? Weren't we 2-3 years away in 2022? And last year?
Why can't we build for tomorrow while fielding a competitive team today?
This sliding scale of perpetually being 2-3 years away is getting annoying.
I get your point, but it has not always been as bad as it gets now. It's not fun to read, drags down the discourse, and serves no good purpose.To the bolded... You're new here, right?
That's not to say that valid points about specific non-acquisitions can't be good reading, it's the circular "the sky is falling" discussions without supporting evidence of such that wrecks things.
I'm not sure if folks have noticed or not, but there's an active effort going on to clean a lot of that kind of stuff up, and improve the way we all interact around here overall. We haven't always been clear or followed up on what the expectations are here, and we are trying to be more clear in that while owning that a lot of the responsibility for where we are right now lies with us. There's no modding our way to a better place, we need the membership to feel good about the place and its direction.
Anyway, I said way more than intended, but I don't want anyone to think we are OK with the status quo, while at the same time acknowledging that a lack of structure and communication on our part is in part what led us here.
Yes, there’s a middle ground where you can build a 90 win team and still preserve a future. We aren’t getting it done currently.
Unfortunately that’s what happens when you hire the wrong guy to rebuild. They recognized that and fired him, so now they have to start the process over with someone who (hopefully) knows what he’s doing.
That's pretty much where I'm at. I don't love Montgomery. I don't think he misses enough bats as it is right now, and worry about how that contract would age. I'd be interested in Snell because I think his stuff is elite, but on a multi year, Sale type contract I would be out. If he'd somehow be interested in a shorter term deal with a higher AAV I'd be interested.
I like Soler, but I don't really see the fit with Yoshida on the roster. I like Yoshida and think he will have a better year offensively, but if somebody wanted to take his contract off of my hands and have it allow me to make a run at Soto next year, I'd explore that.
The DH bat I like the most at this point is Turner because I think there is a bigger need for a guy who can fill in, even in a limited basis, on the infield as opposed to the outfield.
I'd be ok with a guy like Stroman on a one or two year deal. I would be looking to move Martin and Jansen, but not Pivetta. I'm pretty high on Pivetta and would even try to extend him. Relievers like Martin and Jansen probably aren't going to make a huge difference for this year's team, and maybe it would allow me to get some more prospect depth in the system, while freeing up some salary.
I'd look to trade for a controllable arm (Luzardo would be my preference), but not at the expense of any of Mayer, Anthony, or Teel. Those three guys are going to need to be big parts of any future contending Red Sox team.
Lastly, if there aren't going to be any major expenditures, I'd look to lock up Bello and Casas now. You can afford the higher AAV that would count against the CBT now, and it would allow for more flexibility when it's time to really compete.
Not disagreeing, but where are you seeing this? Or what’s your reasoning?
I might have guessed that adding Grissom means that the young infielders (Mayer, Yorke, Romero) become a bit more available in trade.
Round and round we go.
After yesterday's report I'm a little more concerned now about the just how big of a back end commitment year overpay Imanaga might take to make us a "non-long shot" bidder. If we end up having to go full stupid to actually get something done I'd probably generally prefer it be Snell or Montgomery over a pure projection guy on a contract I'm going to end up hating regardless. At least get that greater "we are getting good year Snell!' joy out of the front end moment and all that jazz.
Who is the biggest free agent in the next 1-2 years, Soto?
Is it possible Breslow doesn't want to give dangerous long term deals to 30 year old pitchers but is willing to do it to a 26 year old hitting phenom who grew up rooting for Manny and Papi?
Maybe he's keeping his powder dry for Soto while he starts bringing in starting pitching through the draft and putting the Breslow/Bailey touch on what he currently has in house (and what he will continue to accumulate through trades throughout the year).
Having Soto, Devers, Casas, let's say potentially Mayer, Teel, and Anthony all in the lineup in 2-3 years is pretty damn strong. Left handed yes. But still strong and all in their 20s
In the meantime do your cubs pitching magic..and work on long term deals with Casas and Bello.
Is it possible Breslow doesn't want to give dangerous long term deals to 30 year old pitchers but is willing to do it to a 26 year old hitting phenom who grew up rooting for Manny and Papi?
Maybe he's keeping his powder dry for Soto while he starts bringing in starting pitching through the draft and putting the Breslow/Bailey touch on what he currently has in house (and what he will continue to accumulate through trades throughout the year).
Having Soto, Devers, Casas, let's say potentially Mayer, Teel, and Anthony all in the lineup in 2-3 years is pretty damn strong. Left handed yes. But still strong and all in their 20s
In the meantime do your cubs pitching magic..and work on long term deals with Casas and Bello.
I don't think Montomery and Snell are going to get the 7-8 year deals they're looking for. Teams were willing to give Shohei what he wanted because he's one of a kind. And Yamamoto at 25 years old is a lower risk on a longer term deal. But maybe there are teams that are willing to risk an almost certain bad deal with those two. It's hard to tell whether the deals aren't out there or if Boras is just playing his waiting game.
Agreed.
You also posted something earlier about how Free Agency may not always be the most prudent thing but it is fun for the fans and I couldn't agree more.
Yes and no. I've never been a big Bloom boy but there are supposedly good hitters in the minors, right? Anthony, Teel, Mayer are the headliners but there are more. Not only that but we have Cassas and Bello as well as some intriguing guys in Durran (who I'm not a fan of, but could probably be a decent leftfielder) and Abreau (who might be something). So we're not entirely at square one. Breslow insinuated that he's not afraid of trading prospects for major league stars, so that should (theoretically) put as at square two if he does a compotent job, which I have no reason to believe that he wouldn't.
I'm not saying that we're half-way there yet, but this idea that we're two-to-three years away; especially in today's MLB where teams can turn their fortunes around really quick, is flabergasting and after three of the last four season where we were in a stealth rebuild mode, the idea that we're more than two seasons away is demoralizing and depressing. Especially since the Sox have both the capital and dollars to turn this around quickly. Is Blake Snell Pedro Martinez? No. Is Jordan Montgomery Roger Clemens? Of course not. If you look at every acquisition through that prism you're going to talk yourself out of spending the cash or the prospects.
But they're much better than the flotsam we used last year in our rotation and I think that's good enough for right now.
Perhaps, but it also ignores that at the very least the Yankees and Mets (and possibly others) were willing to give Yamamoto substantially similar terms and we know the Giants offered Ohtani similar terms to LA. They both preferred LA for personal reasons.
Its very reductionist to say that only LA is participating in these markets as if there are not other participants with substantially similar bids.
I’d go monster contract for Soto but Yankees will too. And they’ll have the incumbent advantage. As others have correctly pointed out, we don’t win these battles much. I’ve tried focusing on the “why” but it’s hard to see this ownership group in their current state throwing out the $500M or whatever contract needed to land Soto.
Yeah, one result of the Yankees missing out on Yamamoto is that it keeps re-signing Soto in play for them. I think they would have made a play to extend Soto even if they had signed Yamamoto, but it would have been more difficult with Stanton, Cole, Judge, Rodon, and Yamamoto all on the books.
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1744757398961557861?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA
Another relevant piece of non-news from Morosi.
The Red Sox are among the teams in contact with Shōta Imanaga's representatives two days prior to the close of his posting window, as I reported this morning on @MLBNetwork.
11:25 am 1/9/24
Another relevant piece of non-news from Morosi.
The Red Sox are among the teams in contact with Shōta Imanaga's representatives two days prior to the close of his posting window, as I reported this morning on @MLBNetwork.
11:25 am 1/9/24
Agreed. The only way I see Soto leaving NYY is if he doesn’t like the experience, for whatever reason.
I don't know, I have a hard time seeing them have massive contracts for both Judge and Soto on the books into the 2030s. Judge is already injury prone, and while he's been a good defensive outfielder in the past, there'll be a DH logjam soon enough. Stanton's on the books through 2027, but they may just DFA him in a couple years.
There was no world in which we were 2-3 year away two or three years ago. At least from an internal minor league contribution. Yes, they could have remained at the top by signing every top FA for a $275 mill budget, but once they decided to rely on their own system, they were 4-5 year at that point. Casas and Downs, and to the much lesser extent, Bello, were the only true prospects ready to hit earlier than 4-5 years horizon. They actually got lucky by getting Kutter Crawford as another homegrown piece.
Now, Bloom could have tied to build up that wave by trades getting less ready A prospects, but higher upside kids than Valdez/Abreu. He seemed content to rely on a 4-5 horizon, even if they were telling the fans they were going for a 2 year horizon. That was my problem with his "strategy" of a super long build with only a minimal effort to either (a) create a semi-decent group of players during that wait, or (b) selling off players once the year was lost, to maximize the volume of players for that 4-5 year period.
They are now actually in a place to have a rebuild to be within grasp. I say 2-3 years, now, because even if Mayer rebounds, hits AA this year, and even joins team in 2025, his contribution will be minimal until 2026. Same with Anthony and Theel. But a deadline trade of Anthony or Mayer for a 5 year FA to be could of course accelerate that.
A lot of folks here were saying that the team was 2-3 years away 2-3 years ago, not necessarily because of prospects (although that was part), but because we were re-setting under the cap and had oodles of cash with which to flex our fiscal muscle over competitors.
They did toy with the idea of Judge at 1B last spring, right? Feels like that could potentially be the plan eventually.
Exactly. The fact that some people said it (and I'm not trying to single anyone out) didn't mean it was ever all that feasible. Sure the Sox could have hit on every move while the "meh" prospects were all undervalued and became decent and then somehow been a playoff team - same can be said for Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado, the Angles, the White Sox or any other bad team in baseball.
Which is why I hope that for the rest of this off-season, Breslow goes out and finds players that could help make the team competitive over the next 3 seasons (Hernandez could have fit here, so could have Gurriel Jr, Stroman and Imanaga still do. I'd prefer Montgomery, but that's just me. But find guys for 3+ years, not 1).
If he can't / won't / isn't able to do that then sell Jansen, Martin and PIvetta (and even Yoshida if the return is good right now) for the best prospects / young players he can get before the start of the season, then sign guys like Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris, Ryu and Soler (truthfully I don't care, whoever wants a one year deal) and then sell them at the deadline too. There is very little difference between sucking with 78 wins, sucking with 75 wins or sucking with 72 wins.
Try to double dip on the prospects. Come 5pm on 7/30 there should be nobody on the team left expiring at the end of the year unless the FO is certain they're going to offer them a QO no matter what.
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To that point, 2021 was arguably a year to do this and while they trade for Kyle from Waltham, they failed to address the biggest need at the time which was first base. It's not ridiculous to say that Rizzo and Schwarber would have been enough to put them in the World Series that year.
I think we have to remember that there's not always going to be an off/on marker between "non-competitive" and "competitive." Assuming we don't trade anyone, there's going to be a time when we have younger prospects coming up while we retain control of players like Casas and Bello. But they'll likely come up in a wave, not a block.
This year we have (potentially) Abreu, Rafaela, and Yorke. Perhaps Fitts and Mayer by year's end. Or maybe someone else gets hot.
Next year we have (potentially) Mayer, Teel, Jordan, Hickey, and Anthony. And the odds of some rando MiL making a leap for all of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 are better.
Not all will make it. Some will likely be traded. But that's a lot of potential talent to either plug in directly, or to trade for assets.
Sure, the odds of more players sticking increases with time as the talent wave matures, but If the Sox have a moderately stable rotation and some trend-up from ML players, they have a chance to be competitive this year, and certainly next.
Ehhh... they got outscored 23-3 in the last three games of that series. In your hypothetical do you put Schwarber in RF over Hunter Renfroe? I guess then Rizzo replaces Renfroe's offensive cratering with something slightly better. But the Stros starters and bullpen pushed the Sox to the breaking point, beyond what one single (also K-prone) bat could have changed.
No "much" to it. Other then it not being fun to talk about I don't understand why people have such a hard time just accepting the reality there is that a "goldilocks zone" of the very best free agency has to offer, and one that has always been beyond the Boston draw ceiling for over 20 years now. Soto as 25 year old unicorn type likely ends up falling into that zone. Same as YY did this winter.
Sox top out at great looking 29yo firstbaseman or pitchers with at least some level of restricted interest and greater long term concern. There is really no reason to believe that will ever change either under this current ownship who clearly don't have that "full Cohen" mindset in them, and/or as long as there is uncapped spending factoring itself into the equation.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1744770060621660329?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
As of yesterday, if Red Sox wanted Imanaga, they would have to step up efforts significantly before Thursday deadline. Seems like bidding is still going from teams.
As of yesterday, if Red Sox wanted Imanaga, they would have to step up efforts significantly before Thursday deadline. Seems like bidding is still going from teams.
Agreed but the issue isn’t money or resources, it’s generally philosophical or the player’s preference. If there is a player who isn’t angling for LA like Yamamoto this year, there isn’t anything preventing the Red Sox from landing them other than their own team building strategies and risk tolerance.
Exactly. And Texas? They were coming off a 68-94 season. Folks seem to be underestimating what a crapshoot MLB has been the last 3 years in particular.
I wasn't saying it was about money or resources, and again agree with the rest.
There is 2 ways to get a unicorn. Topping out on a player preference list that is always going to contain at least a few who's who teams who are simply a better face value draw then we are, or being the most desperate and wreckless spender in that bidding room. We are likely never topping that list, and Henry is likely to never be the most desperate and wreckless spender in that room.
It really does boil down to be that simple.
There was the whole thing of them signing Seager and Semien to huge deals and Gray to a very moderate deal before 2022 and then adding deGrom (on a huge deal), and Eovaldi and Heaney on minor deals before 2023. Oh yeah, and then they went and traded for Scherzer and Montgomery midseason. They basically rebuilt their entire pitching staff from free agents signings and veteran trades.
They then got really nice contributions from Jung (top 50ish prospect before 2023) and Carter (top 30ish prospect before 2023) as well as some growth from prior contributors (Taveras, Heim), but they didnt sit around for the year or two before the young guys arrived and improved trying to scrounge around for reclamation projects to build around the one existing plus player (Garcia). They brought in significant top talent. That is the path to a quick turn-around, but even in the fast cases, its usually building on multiple years of market activity.
Can they though? They are loaded with long term deals compared to us. I mean they could. But if we wanted to, we could actually win that tug of war finally.
There are a few reasons why teams win in the postseason, some of them squeak in and get hot while others dominate and try to hold form. We saw these two distant points on the spectrum in the 2013 and 2018 Sox, both of which were very well managed down the stretch. Texas is probably somewhere closer to 2013, in that they came from pretty far back.
But IMO Texas won for a few reasons. Their two expensive free agents, Semien and Seager, put up over 14 bWAR in the regular season and gave them a steady foundation. They also succeeded in the regular season for another huge reason: All but 25 of their 162 starts were by actual starting pitchers (six players when Monty was added), and all six had ERA+ over 100. Oh, and of the 25 other starts, 14 of them were by Scherzer and de Grom, who both pitched well when they could take the ball.
IMO if you can run a good starter out there every day of the week, you will win enough to make the postseason. Way back in 2004 the hot topic was that the team whose designated starters made the most starts would probably win the division. Schilling for sure said that, and for all his faults, he was right on that point. Texas had pretty good injury luck last year, in that they had backup plans for de Grom and Eovaldi that worked. Compare that to 2022 when Texas had three of the same starters -- Dunning, Grey and Perez -- but also Glen Otto (who sucked, as did Dunning), and then TEN OTHER starters taking the ball, and doing very little with it. Perez had a 137 ERA+ in 32 starts, Matt Bush and Jesus Tinoco made 7 total starts of above average quality, while Gray was exactly average (100 ERA+). All the rest of their starts were by guys underwater. Semien and Seager were both about 3 bWAR below their 2023 totals too, but running out 14 different starters, including Garrett Richards, was the difference between a 67 win team and the next year's WS winner.
Eovaldi was one difference. Andrew Heaney was another pickup, 2 years $25m. It's about no areas of the roster ready to crumble, especially the SP. Not so much about star players, though they had two of them on offense. And then it's about injury luck. The Sox might not be far off, but the horrendous injury luck has been so bad that we can't really tell.
Yup, we’re in agreement. It can be done. Do we want to ever be the most aggressive bidder for a top talent? Probably not.
They also had a major culture change with Bochy, probably the best manager of any of our lifetimes.
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