I think the point is that Breslow kind of needs two guys better than Lugo after letting KC outbid him there, and the list of possibilities there is shrinking with tons of other suitors still out there. The Mets still haven't signed any SPs, for instance.
Pivetta would be worth more as a trade chip if he were on a 4/$40 million deal.
Maybe he thinks there are better uses this offseason for the amount of money KC decided to pay Lugo. Maybe he prefers to trade for a pitcher. I suppose it’s possible that he simply doesn’t have a plan and/or somehow got outfoxed and outbid by the Kansas City Royals, but if that’s true than the Red Sox have much bigger problems than needing two starting pitchers for the 2024 season. I tend to think it’s not true.
Ha! I mean I wouldn’t be happy about it. But 4/$40 is nothing in this market. Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Seth Lugo type deal.
Right. Other than Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez, Jack Flaherty, and Kenta Maeda, and also the Tyler Glasnow trade, this progression has held perfectly.
Simply put, the unsatiated fan in me simply would like to see a single move of substance that improves the team. Whether it's a trade for a #1 or #2 starter or a 2B. That being said, I recognize the offseason isn't over yet. It's a lack of patience and my greater point was that a similar offseason under Bloom would be perceived as more of the same.
No this is fair. I probably I overstated my point. I don’t think Nola or Glasnow were ever in play and I don’t think those other pitchers fit the bill of what we’re looking for at the top of the rotation, but they all COULD represent useful upgrades to the staff.
Yeah, the offseason has gone pretty according to plan at the cadence we’ve expected. Where my concerns fall are that there are still a ton of teams looking for pitching and the supply is so scarce.
OK, let me back off my point a little. I understand what you’re getting at. I just think that none of the players of the caliber Breslow seems to be interested in has moved yet, so we’re really in the same pitching boat as everyone else. But I see now that you don’t actually disagree and were making a different point.
Not great. Both put up good (Gray)/respectable (e-rod) innings totals this year but that hasn't been the norm for either. The biggest thing I wanted to get away from this winter was the constant flow of <130 IP "starters" that have been such a damn plague the last couple years and get a couple reliable guys, and I don't especially trust either to do that.
"And then what" indeed. Thats the scary part. I don't think the Sox will be shut out or what remains of the FA pitching carnage will be but scraps, but if it does can you imagine being Craig Breslow? Off to a rocky start does not do justice to the narrative he will be labeled with. It would be a Horror Show.
Fangraphs Steamer WAR projections:
It seems to me that if you're one of the top 10 or so SPs in this winter's market, it's been very easy for a while for you and your agent to see the supply/demand balance is in your favor, even when Urias was still in the mix. So if a SP is genuinely focused on signing with whoever offers the most (I continue to argue this is not very often the case anymore), they would wait until after Yamamoto signs as guys like Snell and Montgomery have.
Let’s hope they transform from interest kings to putting pen to paper with their top targets.
I guess it depends on whether or not you expect him to be a complete washout. If a pitching prospect had posted Y2K's line at AAA people would be salivating over him. Only he did it at a more competitive level. And, again, the idea of the assembly line is that you can sign the studs and and move on from the rest. You just have to identify and pick the right horses.
I like Gray more than Rodriguez, further from injury and keeps the ball on the ground. I wouldn't have minded either. Generally speaking, I think the Sox have inquired on everyone. The players (and other teams) get a say in this.
Didn't Sonny Gray implode during his time in NY? I want nothing to do with any guy that can't handle the heat. He can prosper in Oak, Minn, Cincy, but there is evidence that he didn't handle the limelight. New York, Boston, Philly are just different places.
He has a meeting with the Phillies today, I think it’ll be a few more days.
+1,000,000,000 to each.
This is the way I feel as well, but some of that might be due to Doc Rivers talking to Simmons the other day about how he knew Kawhi Leonard was always signing with the Clippers because Kawhi flew out to LA to meet with them, but made other interested suitors fly to Toronto to meet with him.
In a thread that's littered with jumping to conclusions, this one is the best.
Yup. Even if he's making the east coast teams fly to him at the moment, if they intrigue him enough (read: make large enough offers) during those meetings , he'll fly east before he makes a decision.
Another way to look at it is that back end payments in years of presumably reduced performance are actually a combination of lower salary for reduced performance+deferred compensation from more productive early years.
The problem is, if it's obvious to give him $350 million, someone's going to give him $400 million.
Totally agree. My sense from what’s being reported is that it may just be more about what situation he wants to be in — factoring the immaterial stuff — rather than the relative differences in contract dollars. I think it was Rosenthal or some other mainstream reporter who framed it like the decision is his and “the money will follow.”
And each year on the back end that you have locked up is a year you don't need to fill that spot with a player in future offseasons while salaries continue to rise. He'll be 5 years in and still only 30 which is around the age of most of the FAs we're usually looking at. In 5 years the top 30 year old FAs are going to be signing for $40+ million per year and we will not bat an eye.
Well, maybe. That seems largely dependent on each teams revenue streams. Not every team has a long term local TV deal guaranteeing them $300m+ year no matter what like the Dodgers do.
While I generally agree with Rosenthal, the more you look at it and study the teams: Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, there is only one team on that list that doesn’t have multiple long term contracts with aging players. Only one with short and long term payroll flexibility.
I mean, they have to field an actual team.
I agree. I’m thinking (hoping) that Breslow is saving his ammunition for Yamamoto by passing on the others.
This is a great idea and all, but if the rest of the front line starters are waiting for Yamamoto to set the market (and that certainly seems to be the case), how do you propose getting one to sign earlier?
