Yeah, I’m afraid @YTF has bingo here. Our ‘program’ has led to not drafting pitching high, not developing starting pitching successfully, and not making big FA investments (since Sale).
I don't necessarily disagree, but here's the thing that sticks in my brain...we're now discussing $35-$40M per year for 9-10 years for a guy who's yet to throw a single MLB pitch.
By "people" you may mean me, I've bungled this twice. OK, hope to keep it straight from here.
They said the same about Contreras and Matsuzaka. Who were solid enough pitchers. Giving any pitcher a 10+ year deal is really risky, and this org has been incredibly risk averse for quite awhile now. May be the right path to take- but it also results in rarely making moves of any significance.
A contract of this magnitude definitely carries some risk, but like someone mentioned, it’s the cost of doing business. They can afford Yamamoto and still not be financially strapped. They have to spend money on the right players.
You’re absolutely right. Shit’s ridiculous but it seems like that’s how things work now so I think we’ve got to adjust if we’re ever gonna compete for top of the line free agents again. I’m not super excited at that level of risk myself but that’s where we are.
If the Red Sox top priority is a player that has no in interest playing for the franchise, I have to wonder what exactly is going on in the front office. I have to believe Yamamoto is open to Boston or Henry will look like a fool no matter how the spin doctors try to spin it. As was mentioned in a prior comment, the Red Sox have fallen to a point where they are competing with American soccer in the hierarchy of New England sports. They need Yamamoto for more reasons than one. I am hopeful it gets done.
OK, but here are the top 10 pitchers by bWAR this year: Cole, Snell, Webb, Gray, Bradish, Senga, Gallen, Wheeler, Montgomery, Luzardo. Of those ten, only Cole, Senga and Wheeler were acquired in competitive free agent markets. Webb, Bradish and Gallen are all guys who passed through 2-3 draft rounds before someone bothered to pick them. Snell, Gray and Monty were all nice trade pickups, and Luzardo was an out of nowhere late bloomer. Pitching is just so incredibly fickle. A flashy free agent is nice but it usually isn't the way to go.
Weren't people excited in 2021? I sure was, very cool team. I don't think the world is all that different; IMO the Sox are just in a more difficult, unpleasant stage of the rebuild and a certain class of Sox fans are incredibly impatient. Bloom may or may not have bungled some potential trades, depending on what you decide to take at face value, but as soon as they can build up a rotation again, the public conversation (to the extent people actually care about it) will change.
I think that this is a terrific point when it comes to wondering whether Yamamoto is worth it. If LA, both NY teams, SF, Toronto, Philly and Boston want this guy, he must be pretty good.
Now that we’ve had so many pitchers leave Japan for America, I think there is a better understanding of what things to look for. One key statistic has been HR/ 9 innings. Japanese pitchers who have been elite with this have done far better than those that haven’t been.
And I think Breslow has a pretty good idea of Yamamoto’s worth, especially looking at the Sox from a prospective outside the organization with a keen eye for pitching. What remains to be seen if Henry & Co. are truly going to give Breslow the financial resources he needs to cook.
I agree with the overall point, and in general, I think that is the main benefit of the Breslow hire. I trust that at some point he and Bailey will be able to get more out of pitchers without having to pay top dollar, but that's going to take time, and in the meantime, the rotation has a ton of holes to fill.
But Yamamoto's situation is not comparable to a free agent pitcher signing. That's why he's going to get an insane contract. The whole issue with free agency is that you're overpaying someone with few if any prime years left because that's just how the MLB pre-arb/arb structure works out. No pitcher would hit FA at that age unless they broke into the big leagues at like age 19.
I get that he's unique in that way. It's a valid point. But he's also unique in that he has never thrown one pitch in MLB. I don't know how to square those two things. He's also small, the kind of frame that doesn't always age well. Steamer projects him as having the 22nd highest WAR for pitchers in MLB next year (behind Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, barely ahead of Eduardo Rodriguez), I dunno. If they sign him I'll be all in hoping that it works out (and likely, convincing myself that it will). But my instinct is that it's too much unknown to make that kinds of a long term risk.
Sure, I get all that, it's what you pay a premium for, although it's not that far off from Cole hitting the market at age 28 and getting essentially 10/$360. He's more like a typical free agent in the sense that he is subject to an open bidding war and teams have relatively little control over the eventual outcome, especially if they aren't the Yankees or Dodgers. But the Yankees and Dodgers don't have a lot of banners to show for their investments of late. Basically they lose almost every year to a team that had to get more creative with their rotation, and did. By no means is all hope lost if we don't sign the glittering prize.
Agreed with all this. I’m a little perplexed why the Braves or the Rangers aren’t involved in the bidding. Apparently they didn’t make the cut from the initial 13-team Zoom calls.
But Breslow promised they were foot on the gas! The glittering prizes and endless compromises shatter the illusion of integrity.
FWIW, there is another class of fan (or at least one fan in another class). Those who believe Bloom built “only” an average farm system (closer to 16 where MLB ranks them vs 3rd on FG) and while a good hitting core, that the MLB pitching and upper minors pitching is so atrocious on balance that waiting for the farm isn’t a tenable plan. Compounded with the fact that I think he misread the market and over estimated the ability to trade hitting prospects for MLB pitching. (I’m not saying he’s the only one to do this, for the record.)
Glasnow is an interesting example of the risks inherent in committing to young talent like Yamamoto. How much would he have been worth in an open bidding war at age 25? His talent is undeniable and from that perspective everyone would have been right who had high expectations. Then, in his age 25 season, he began the season looking like the second coming of Bob Gibson before an arm injury ended it early. He’s continued to be consistently amazing whenever he’s pitched since, but he’s never thrown more than 21 starts, and his career high in innings is only 120 with only one other season reaching 100.
I think the simple reality is that all pitchers are serious injury risks. TJ injuries have been so common that you basically expect them at some point. So, teams have to decide whether or not they are comfortable with those risks. When you have a steady flow of cheap and effective pitching, taking those risks is obviously much easier. Clearly, we don’t, which is why we’re in this bind.
If Pivetta would take 10 per, I’d do it in a heartbeat. That’s a low price to pay for stability considering he hasn’t been anything worse than serviceable over a full season since we got him. Not sure that does it these days, though.
The thing is all those cheap positional prospects give you the flexibility to sign someone like Yamamoto because you can fill all those roster spots with cost controlled players. If Anthony keeps going nuclear and Teel fulfills his destiny as an offensive asset and great defensive catcher, you potentially have two 5-6 win players making peanuts. That makes it much less risky to pay Y2K market rates.
I approve of this message. Sox need to find a way to leverage their financial advantages and they need to be creative if boatloads of money is not enough to win the free agent bidding wars. Sign Woodruff and give Paxton a two year deal while we're at it.
Interesting that the deal appears to be contingent on Glasnow signing a long term extension. Paging Corbin Burnes.
Glasnow is from Santa Clarita, near Los Angeles.
But if YY is signing a 10-12 year deal, it may get harder to resign these young studs when they aren’t making peanuts and want to get paid.
It sounds to me like the Sox can’t do anything until YY signs. Guessing if they miss out on him, they move on to Montgomery or Snell; and try to get one of them and then someone cheaper (Manea or someone?). As it is now they can’t commit to a Lugo or E-Rod because signing one of them woildnt leave them enough budget for YY? Is that somewhat logical? Otherwise I can’t figure out why, if they need two starters, they can’t acquire the 2nd one before the first.
What activity would you like to have seen by the Sox at this point in the off season beyond what you have already seen? Everyone paying attention when the season ended knew that Ohtani would go first to help establish the market, then Yamamoto, to be followed by everyone else. Such a progression is how baseball has always worked, only the names of the free agents change. Given that the Sox, MLB, the media, and this entire board all agree that the Sox needs are largely to be filled in the starting pitching market, what would you like the team to have done at this point that it hasn't already done?
I’m in all the way to $1.2 billion. Who says no?
That’s fine, I’m not a farm system expert, so I’m comfy saying that they have a solid top three and some big ceiling hitters further down, so if the pitching help doesn’t come from within, then they will have to trade position player talent to cover it. Or make big moves in free agency. Or a little of both. They are hardly out of options, particularly with a staff that was league average in a supposedly terrible year. The rotation needs help but it’s not a tear-down.
