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RS2004foreever

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Ohtani makes sense for the Jays - they were the only team in baseball I believe to have 4 starters make over 29 starts and can afford to be patient with him.

Kind of a dark moment. The Yankees are better and the Jays are getting Ohtani. The Orioles are young and can expect to get better and the Rays have two elite pitchers who might be ready to join Efflin and Glasnow.

Worth remembering though the Sox biggest weakness is one that is easy to fix - two starting pitchers can make an enormous difference and they don't have to be named Yamamoto. The sense in the moment is the Red Sox do not have enough talent top to bottom - but that can change.

As of this moment though a playoff bid seems a long way away.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ohtani makes sense for the Jays - they were the only team in baseball I believe to have 4 starters make over 29 starts and can afford to be patient with him.

Kind of a dark moment. The Yankees are better and the Jays are getting Ohtani. The Orioles are young and can expect to get better and the Rays have two elite pitchers who might be ready to join Efflin and Glasnow.

Worth remembering though the Sox biggest weakness is one that is easy to fix - two starting pitchers can make an enormous difference and they don't have to be named Yamamoto. The sense in the moment is the Red Sox do not have enough talent top to bottom - but that can change.

As of this moment though a playoff bid seems a long way away.
Glasnow is likely to be traded due to payroll issues. Who knows what happens with Wander. If Jays get Ohtani, you’ll likely have at least 3 teams better on paper than the Red Sox within their division alone. They really, really need an impact guy like Yamamoto.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Glasnow is likely to be traded due to payroll issues. Who knows what happens with Wander. If Jays get Ohtani, you’ll likely have at least 3 teams better on paper than the Red Sox within their division alone. They really, really need an impact guy like Yamamoto.
Yamamoto and a trade for Burnes and Adames and I'm liking this team much more. These moves make us at least competitive.
 

chawson

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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I don't love the potential ripple effects of Ohtani to Toronto, if it happens. Makes YY to LA more likely, which in turn could shift the other big YY suitors to prioritize Imanaga, etc etc.
Which is why I've been saying for a while to back the brinks truck up for Montgomery. Ask Boras what the number is to have him sign right now and give it to him.

Of course, this assumes Boras would give a number, but I'd assume he would (my guess has always been around $175m).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Which is why I've been saying for a while to back the brinks truck up for Montgomery. Ask Boras what the number is to have him sign right now and give it to him.

Of course, this assumes Boras would give a number, but I'd assume he would (my guess has always been around $175m).
How good is this team, with Montgomery added, though? He helps but he’s not especially young, and is hardly the missing piece. Need to have a realistic assessment of where the team is at and where it’s headed. Sox only had 14 1+ win players last year, they’ve traded one and three others are free agents. Ton of work to do, giving a guy like Montgomery a big chunk money may not really solve anything.
 

BigSoxFan

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How good is this team, with Montgomery added, though? He helps but he’s not especially young, and is hardly the missing piece. Need to have a realistic assessment of where the team is at and where it’s headed. Sox only had 14 1+ win players last year, they’ve traded one and three others are free agents. Ton of work to do, giving a guy like Montgomery a big chunk money may not really solve anything.
I’m really horrified at the thought of giving Montgomery a market deal, especially for a team that is looking more towards 2025 and beyond.
 

nattysez

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Brandon Belt had a renaissance last year with the Jays. He might be a good Justin Turner replacement on a 1-year deal. He'd be mostly redundant in Toronto if they bring in Ohtani.
 

JCizzle

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How good is this team, with Montgomery added, though? He helps but he’s not especially young, and is hardly the missing piece. Need to have a realistic assessment of where the team is at and where it’s headed. Sox only had 14 1+ win players last year, they’ve traded one and three others are free agents. Ton of work to do, giving a guy like Montgomery a big chunk money may not really solve anything.
I see what you're saying, but at the same time - when do you start adding good players to prevent it from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy? For the record, Montgomery doesn't really do it for me either.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I see what you're saying, but at the same time - when do you start adding good players to prevent it from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy? For the record, Montgomery doesn't really do it for me either.
Yeah, that’s a good point too. If they keep waiting for the perfect deals and perfect players, they will never do anything.
 

cantor44

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I see what you're saying, but at the same time - when do you start adding good players to prevent it from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Yeah, precisely. It may be helpful to get a good #2/high end #3 rotation arm prior to landing an ace. Yamamoto says he wants to go to a winner. If he sees the Red Sox are already adding talent, maybe that incentivizes him a bit.
 

simplicio

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I’m really horrified at the thought of giving Montgomery a market deal, especially for a team that is looking more towards 2025 and beyond.
Montgomery is the (non-YY) guy I'd be happiest to overpay for, cause I think he's the likeliest to make every start he's hired for. Even if he's a backend guy by the end of it, that's still really valuable in a way that doesn't show up in WAR alone.
 

chrisfont9

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What are we "meh" about with Montgomery? Just that he's gonna get paid like an ace when he's really more of a #2? I see a high-floor, durable guy, the type the Sox have really been lacking, who doesn't walk a lot of guys and just steadily pumps out quality starts. I get that a lot of his contact is league average, but he's also had a FIP under 4.00 for a while. He plus a high-ceiling, riskier guy like Imanaga would be a nice pairing IMO, if we can't get Yamamoto.
 

SouthernBoSox

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What are we "meh" about with Montgomery? Just that he's gonna get paid like an ace when he's really more of a #2? I see a high-floor, durable guy, the type the Sox have really been lacking, who doesn't walk a lot of guys and just steadily pumps out quality starts. I get that a lot of his contact is league average, but he's also had a FIP under 4.00 for a while. He plus a high-ceiling, riskier guy like Imanaga would be a nice pairing IMO, if we can't get Yamamoto.
Agreed. People want the name and the fact that in peoples mind Yamamoto is the best pitcher in baseball at 25, even though we don’t know if that’s true.

Also, if it’s Montgomery + Teoscar vs. Yamamoto alone, there’s definitely a case for the former rather than latter.
 

simplicio

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How good is this team, with Montgomery added, though? He helps but he’s not especially young, and is hardly the missing piece. Need to have a realistic assessment of where the team is at and where it’s headed. Sox only had 14 1+ win players last year, they’ve traded one and three others are free agents. Ton of work to do, giving a guy like Montgomery a big chunk money may not really solve anything.
It's not like there's going to be a boatload of younger guys if we wait a year, we're looking at Burnes (30), Wheeler (34), Fried (30), Bieber (29), Buehler (30), Glasnow (31), Woodruff (31) and Scherzer (methuselah) next winter.
 

BigSoxFan

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What are we "meh" about with Montgomery? Just that he's gonna get paid like an ace when he's really more of a #2? I see a high-floor, durable guy, the type the Sox have really been lacking, who doesn't walk a lot of guys and just steadily pumps out quality starts. I get that a lot of his contact is league average, but he's also had a FIP under 4.00 for a while. He plus a high-ceiling, riskier guy like Imanaga would be a nice pairing IMO, if we can't get Yamamoto.
Career 3.83 FIP in the AL with 1.22 WHIP. He turns 31 in a few weeks. He’s either peaked or is close to it. If I’m spending $170-200M on a guy, I want higher upside. He’s definitely a valuable player but he’s not a guy I pay market rates for. At Story money, it would be much different but I think he’ll surge past that.
 

chrisfont9

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Career 3.83 FIP in the AL with 1.22 WHIP. He turns 31 in a few weeks. He’s either peaked or is close to it. If I’m spending $170-200M on a guy, I want higher upside. He’s definitely a valuable player but he’s not a guy I pay market rates for. At Story money, it would be much different but I think he’ll surge past that.
Isn't that a different market -- younger, higher ceiling? TBD I guess.

I could be wrong, but in my head there's a trickle down effect to having Montgomery roll out 20 quality starts in 30-something tries. Not just the obvious benefits to the bullpen, but how that benefit relieves some of the pressure on Sale (boom or bust), Bello and Crawford (good but volatile), and whoever else. Just as there was a very negative trickle down effect to all the missed or shortened starts this year. Montgomery might be worth more to the Sox than to some other teams.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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How good is this team, with Montgomery added, though? He helps but he’s not especially young, and is hardly the missing piece. Need to have a realistic assessment of where the team is at and where it’s headed. Sox only had 14 1+ win players last year, they’ve traded one and three others are free agents. Ton of work to do, giving a guy like Montgomery a big chunk money may not really solve anything.
@chrisfont9 and @SouthernBoSox beat me to it.

To answer the question, I dunno. This is (I'm sure) shot down somehow analytically, but it's the way I look at it.

You absolutely need guys in the top half of your rotation that are good pitchers, that can eat innings, that the manager can bank on to take the ball every 5 days and to give you a decent chance to win the 30 games they start per season, as it helps everyone else fill lesser roles.

I think Bello is one. I think there is literally nobody else on the MLB level, in AAA or in AA that I think is capable of that (Crawford is fine as a 5th starter and to see if he could be more, no problem with him, to be clear). I think Montgomery does that and provides instant credibility to the rotation. I also think you can reasonably give him a 7 year deal because he only has about 700ip on his arm. Unlike someone like Rodrgiuez or Snell that constantly misses time, Montgomery missed time with Tommy John (certainly a danger for literally every pitcher and now hitters too) but otherwise has been very durable.

I want to be clear, I don't think he's an ace. I think he's somewhere between John Lackey and John Lester (a really good and durable #2 starter). What does he win you, I dunno, maybe the team wins 4 more games because unlike Paxton or Sale it's Jordan Montgomery pitching those extra 10 games and not Kyle Barraclough or Matt Dermody or whatever scrub opener is used. So now you're 83-79 instead of 78-84 AND other free agents see that you're actually trying to win games by signing good MLB players again in 2025.

Then when the positional prospects ostensibly start coming up (2025) you're only looking at filling 2 spots in the rotation and only one has to be a top half guy instead of the 3 spots, 2 top half we're at now. It's really difficult to fill that many rotation spots in one year, no matter how much money a team has. It's also tough to do it with trades when you have no pitching to send back for pitching.
 

BigSoxFan

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Isn't that a different market -- younger, higher ceiling? TBD I guess.

I could be wrong, but in my head there's a trickle down effect to having Montgomery roll out 20 quality starts in 30-something tries. Not just the obvious benefits to the bullpen, but how that benefit relieves some of the pressure on Sale (boom or bust), Bello and Crawford (good but volatile), and whoever else. Just as there was a very negative trickle down effect to all the missed or shortened starts this year. Montgomery might be worth more to the Sox than to some other teams.
Agreed. These are all reasons to want Montgomery. If you could get him for the Nola contract, I’d probably do that. I just worry about what his market will look like if Yamamoto goes for $300M or more. He also may be a bit of a late bloomer, which could factor into the valuation. And obviously having WS experience wouldn’t hurt. For me, it’s all about the price. Would still rather gamble on upside with Yamamoto at a premium.
 

chrisfont9

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@chrisfont9 and @SouthernBoSox beat me to it.

To answer the question, I dunno. This is (I'm sure) shot down somehow analytically, but it's the way I look at it.

You absolutely need guys in the top half of your rotation that are good pitchers, that can eat innings, that the manager can bank on to take the ball every 5 days and to give you a decent chance to win the 30 games they start per season, as it helps everyone else fill lesser roles.

I think Bello is one. I think there is literally nobody else on the MLB level, in AAA or in AA that I think is capable of that (Crawford is fine as a 5th starter and to see if he could be more, no problem with him, to be clear). I think Montgomery does that and provides instant credibility to the rotation. I also think you can reasonably give him a 7 year deal because he only has about 700ip on his arm. Unlike someone like Rodrgiuez or Snell that constantly misses time, Montgomery missed time with Tommy John (certainly a danger for literally every pitcher and now hitters too) but otherwise has been very durable.

I want to be clear, I don't think he's an ace. I think he's somewhere between John Lackey and John Lester (a really good and durable #2 starter). What does he win you, I dunno, maybe the team wins 4 more games because unlike Paxton or Sale it's Jordan Montgomery pitching those extra 10 games and not Kyle Barraclough or Matt Dermody or whatever scrub opener is used. So now you're 83-79 instead of 78-84 AND other free agents see that you're actually trying to win games by signing good MLB players again in 2025.

Then when the positional prospects ostensibly start coming up (2025) you're only looking at filling 2 spots in the rotation and only one has to be a top half guy instead of the 3 spots, 2 top half we're at now. It's really difficult to fill that many rotation spots in one year, no matter how much money a team has. It's also tough to do it with trades when you have no pitching to send back for pitching.
Agreed. These are all reasons to want Montgomery. If you could get him for the Nola contract, I’d probably do that. I just worry about what his market will look like if Yamamoto goes for $300M or more. He also may be a bit of a late bloomer, which could factor into the valuation. And obviously having WS experience wouldn’t hurt. For me, it’s all about the price. Would still rather gamble on upside with Yamamoto at a premium.
Good stuff. I think we all see it about the same apart from maybe price sensitivity. Guessing the high end contract could lead to a crunch down the road, although right now the current salary commitments are very light. If he's who we think he is, and he doesn't get really hurt, then that contract is probably movable later on. I can't picture him entering Giancarlo-rotting corpse contract territory.
 

JM3

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The recency bias on "this guy is always healthy" guy compared to "this guy is always injured guy" is kind of interesting.

In his 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Montgomery has averaged 118.5 innings per season.

In his last 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Sale has averaged 111.8 innings per season, & from 24 to 30, the age range covered in Montgomery's career to date, Sale averaged 191.9 innings per season.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It's not like there's going to be a boatload of younger guys if we wait a year, we're looking at Burnes (30), Wheeler (34), Fried (30), Bieber (29), Buehler (30), Glasnow (31), Woodruff (31) and Scherzer (methuselah) next winter.
Right, and this will be the case pretty much every year until/unless the current structure of cost controlled years changes. Outside of the occasional phenom, usually a Latin American 16 year old signee who cruises through the minors, guys are not hitting FA before 28-29.

You don't always have to attract prime-aged professional-ready players from Japan or Cuba. You don't always have to sign the top of market guys for a large fortune into their late 30s. or the next-tier guys for a middling fortune into their mid-30s. You don't have to trade a premium for high end starters or volume for innings eaters. You don't even always have to develop pitchers.

But if you're doing none of those* and instead just rotate through scrap-heap older guys and reclamation projects because you can sign them for one year and they represent the "best value", something has to change. I do think the recent hires suggest that the org would like to make pitching development more of a baseline core organizational principle, which in turn allows you the flexibility to do some of the other stuff. But it takes a lot of moves and a lot of time so that is difficult to sit through while there are players on the table who could help.

*Bello is obviously a start and there are some promising arms that are very far away from appearing for Boston, but that's only a start. They did turn around the system's offensive potential pretty quickly even with a huge focus on high school bats, so it's not hopeless.

I just don't see any way that walking away from this offseason without a multi-year commitment from a new quality pitcher who is a fair bet to start 30 games can be considered acceptable.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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The recency bias on "this guy is always healthy" guy compared to "this guy is always injured guy" is kind of interesting.

In his 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Montgomery has averaged 118.5 innings per season.

In his last 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Sale has averaged 111.8 innings per season, & from 24 to 30, the age range covered in Montgomery's career to date, Sale averaged 191.9 innings per season.
Wasn't Monty missing one large chunk of time because of TJS (which is a risk for literally every pitcher)? Sale seems to get hurt with something different every single year. Sometimes more than once per year. To be clear, if Sale had "just" missed the time from TJS, then came back to make 30 starts in 2022 and 30 more in 2023 there is no way I'd be so bearish about his ability to start a full season. Absolutely none.

It's kind of like I don't think Trevor Story will miss the same amount of time as Christian Arroyo just because they've both played in approximately 145 games (or averaged 70ish) for 2022 and 2023.
 

simplicio

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That meant by age 30, Sale had about twice the mileage on his arm.
The recency bias on "this guy is always healthy" guy compared to "this guy is always injured guy" is kind of interesting.

In his 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Montgomery has averaged 118.5 innings per season.

In his last 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Sale has averaged 111.8 innings per season, & from 24 to 30, the age range covered in Montgomery's career to date, Sale averaged 191.9 innings per season.
 

chrisfont9

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The recency bias on "this guy is always healthy" guy compared to "this guy is always injured guy" is kind of interesting.

In his 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Montgomery has averaged 118.5 innings per season.

In his last 6 (non-Covid) seasons, Sale has averaged 111.8 innings per season, & from 24 to 30, the age range covered in Montgomery's career to date, Sale averaged 191.9 innings per season.
Hey, I'm as big an opponent of the term "injury prone" as anyone! Even in Sale's case, people tend to assume that some other thing will happen to him to cause a new injury, which is a weird thing to assume. But in Montgomery's case, it's pretty straightforward -- He came up, he had TJ, he recovered from TJ, and he's made basically all of his starts ever since (three years). Sale? Last year I think we had a poll on his # of starts and my answer was mid-20s. I'd be bullish again except the shoulder strain makes me a bit nervous. But he's not blowing out his elbow again, or falling off his bike or whatever.
 

nighthob

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I don't love the potential ripple effects of Ohtani to Toronto, if it happens. Makes YY to LA more likely, which in turn could shift the other big YY suitors to prioritize Imanaga, etc etc.
I mean even if the Mets hand out a 6/165 deal to Imanaga you can always just trade for him next summer when the Mets season collapses and they’re willing to pay half the contract freight in a trade.
 

sezwho

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I mean even if the Mets hand out a 6/165 deal to Imanaga you can always just trade for him next summer when the Mets season collapses and they’re willing to pay half the contract freight in a trade.
True, but they only pay half the freight if we deal from our precious pile o' prospects and the cycle continues.
 

JM3

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A ton of the injury conversations are small sample-size nonsense & vibes. Remember "Fragile" Fred Taylor? Who went on to have a long, illustrious & unusually healthy career after some early career setbacks? Some of it is biomechanics & genetics, but it's a really big fallacy to say that Montgomery has been mostly healthy for the past 3 years from 28-30, so he's super likely to be healthy from 31 to 36.

Or that Chris Sale is injury prone because he fell off a bike & got hit with a baseball so he's more likely to suffer future injury. The data points for that are the TJ & the shoulder, not the random nonsense. Just like Tanner Houck isn't more injury prone because he got hit in the eye with a line drive. & I'm not going to ding Montgomery for missing a couple starts with COVID in '21 (that's what you get for hanging out with Gerrit Cole).
 

YTF

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Yamamoto and a trade for Burnes and Adames and I'm liking this team much more. These moves make us at least competitive.
I'm assuming that you have Adames playing 2B? I'm not suggesting that he can't, but in 11 seasons of professional baseball Adames has played in 1269 games starting 19 at 2B at the major league level and just 10 in the minors. Perhaps it's just as simple as he's filled a need at SS, but I'm curious if anyone has any insight at all about his ability or willingness to play at second.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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A ton of the injury conversations are small sample-size nonsense & vibes. Remember "Fragile" Fred Taylor? Who went on to have a long, illustrious & unusually healthy career after some early career setbacks? Some of it is biomechanics & genetics, but it's a really big fallacy to say that Montgomery has been mostly healthy for the past 3 years from 28-30, so he's super likely to be healthy from 31 to 36.

Or that Chris Sale is injury prone because he fell off a bike & got hit with a baseball so he's more likely to suffer future injury. The data points for that are the TJ & the shoulder, not the random nonsense. Just like Tanner Houck isn't more injury prone because he got hit in the eye with a line drive. & I'm not going to ding Montgomery for missing a couple starts with COVID in '21 (that's what you get for hanging out with Gerrit Cole).
I'm not trying to be snarky, but I've literally never heard of this guy. Was he a pitcher or position player? Possibly a different name? The only one I found on BBRef was some guy from the 1950s.

Either way, it's really an argument that neither side will ever give up on. For every Stanton, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Sale, Snell, Rodon there are probably tons of guys that have shaken an "injury plagued" label, and both sides will just find a litany of players (self included) to fit their argument because it's professional sports and lots of injuries happen.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm assuming that you have Adames playing 2B? I'm not suggesting that he can't, but in 11 seasons of professional baseball Adames has played in 1269 games starting 19 at 2B at the major league level and just 10 in the minors. Perhaps it's just as simple as he's filled a need at SS, but I'm curious if anyone has any insight at all about his ability or willingness to play at second.
Not that I'm necessarily advocating for this, but couldn't Adames cover short while Story moves back to second since we know he can play the position? I think Story is probably the better defender either way, but Adames isn't exactly a butcher at SS. He's posted positive DRS and UZR the last few years.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm not trying to be snarky, but I've literally never heard of this guy. Was he a pitcher or position player? Possibly a different name? The only one I found on BBRef was some guy from the 1950s.

Either way, it's really an argument that neither side will ever give up on. For every Stanton, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Sale, Snell, Rodon there are probably tons of guys that have shaken an "injury plagued" label, and both sides will just find a litany of players (self included) to fit their argument because it's professional sports and lots of injuries happen.
Fred Taylor
 

JM3

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I'm not trying to be snarky, but I've literally never heard of this guy. Was he a pitcher or position player? Possibly a different name? The only one I found on BBRef was some guy from the 1950s.

Either way, it's really an argument that neither side will ever give up on. For every Stanton, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Sale, Snell, Rodon there are probably tons of guys that have shaken an "injury plagued" label, and both sides will just find a litany of players (self included) to fit their argument because it's professional sports and lots of injuries happen.
Lol he was a running back.

& yup, injuries happen. & some people are more likely to suffer injuries because they play the game a certain way, or aren't in shape, or put too much of a strain on their body, or they are getting older, or are genetically predisposed for whatever. But conflating fluke injuries with those things is the part where people lose me & most likely science loses them.
 

YTF

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Not that I'm necessarily advocating for this, but couldn't Adames cover short while Story moves back to second since we know he can play the position? I think Story is probably the better defender either way, but Adames isn't exactly a butcher at SS. He's posted positive DRS and UZR the last few years.
I've no issue with that, but for whatever reason the team has repeatedly shut down any talk of Story playing 2B. Perhaps that changes with the new faces in the FO.
 

ehaz

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Part of the problem with Montgomery is you're paying a 7-year, near $200M contract with the expectation that the value he provides in the first few years will make up for the burden of the last few years. If Bello is the only other guy in the rotation they can count on right now to make ~30 starts and give them a decent chance to win every 5 days, what is all that value in the early years contributing to? A couple of 86 win seasons in 24 and 25?

I like Montgomery as a piece of a larger off-season where they acquire another pitcher like Yamamoto/Burnes/Gilbert + a legitimate 2B. I like him a lot less if he's the primary addition/back-up plan for missing out on Yamamoto.
 

simplicio

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I've no issue with that, but for whatever reason the team has repeatedly shut down any talk of Story playing 2B. Perhaps that changes with the new faces in the FO.
The reason could be that his defensive metrics at SS this year were wildly insanely good. Like best in baseball per inning played at any position good (by DRS).
 
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