During the semifinal i think they said the last guy to throw for 4500 yards in 2 straight seasons was Mahomes. Not sure what other qualifiers were on it.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I would not object to MHJ at 3, but if Caleb is gone, I hope we trade down. Even if just 1 spot.
Do not want Maye at 3 at all. Daniels could be a risk too given his weapons at LSU (but I have him as #2 QB by far) Don''t have either tackle better than the other, and think we can have the 2nd one at 6 or 7.
Do not want Maye at 3 at all. Daniels could be a risk too given his weapons at LSU (but I have him as #2 QB by far) Don''t have either tackle better than the other, and think we can have the 2nd one at 6 or 7.
The thing with Penix, too, is he kept getting better and the team continued to get better around him from last year to this year. It's no surprise they are in the title game.
Just caught a bit of Felger's wrap-up show. Ted Johnson is a huge Penix fan, citing his wins over other ranked programs where Caleb Williams hasn't fared as well. Breer said a lot of evaluators have doubts about Penix, particularly about his accuracy on short & intermediate passes. One scout called him a great 3-point shooter who misses too much on shorter stuff.
Addendum: Age for Penix was another concern.
Addendum: Age for Penix was another concern.
Last edited:
I am no QB evaluator, my neighbors don't have any vcrs but I watched most of Penix snaps this season. I didn't see a noteworthy number of misses on short throws. What I saw is that Washington played better teams as the season went along and Penix made whatever throws needed to be made to win games.
I have no idea if he can play up with whatever his flaws are but his arm is special as is his competitive drive. Those two things alone are enough to love but from what I've seen he does process well. His ability to pick defenses apart is pretty elite (sorry)too. He is good at eluding pressure and can run when needed. I get that his OL is amazing and his wealth of weapons makes his job a lot easier - but win or lose in the CFP championship I would be thrilled if the Pats nabbed him, even at three.
I get that they likely won't and his age, injury history etc are great reasons but I would take him over Daniels or even Maye. But I am not a QB evaluator.
I have no idea if he can play up with whatever his flaws are but his arm is special as is his competitive drive. Those two things alone are enough to love but from what I've seen he does process well. His ability to pick defenses apart is pretty elite (sorry)too. He is good at eluding pressure and can run when needed. I get that his OL is amazing and his wealth of weapons makes his job a lot easier - but win or lose in the CFP championship I would be thrilled if the Pats nabbed him, even at three.
I get that they likely won't and his age, injury history etc are great reasons but I would take him over Daniels or even Maye. But I am not a QB evaluator.
So, 4 months out, is the consensus top 4 Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Daniels?
Do we spend the next 4 months talking ourselves into and out of these guys? Do any of the tackles rise to #3 worthy?
Do we spend the next 4 months talking ourselves into and out of these guys? Do any of the tackles rise to #3 worthy?
We already see mocks (of course, pre-workouts and medicals) with Penix and Bo Nix in the first round. If they don't take a QB with their first pick, I don't think we get a reasonable QB prospect at all - which would be a really, really tough sell to the fans.
I think, right now, most people are *anticipating* Daniels rise into top 4 or 5 consideration. Not sure if he's all the way there yet.
Probably not, but pretty likely. Decent chance one of the QBs (most likely Daniels) could drop a bit
Tackles are just not worth it this high imo. I’d take a QB with a 50% Pro Bowl hit rate over a Tackle with a 99% Pro Bowl rate. There are too many QB options in this draft to waste a top pick on a Tackle.
Barring some kind of injury or major revelation that removes one of the QBs or MHJ from the board, I can't imagine the Patriots sticking at 3 and taking a tackle.
Obviously you go through your evaluation and do it with an open mind. But T is so much lower value from a positional standpoint than QB or even a stud WR that I just can't really see it happening. It would require being pretty negative on at least two of the three QBs (assuming you would always take MHJ over a tackle) and if that happens I think you trade down rather than stick.
Having watched ~30 minutes of highlight videos I've settled on Daniels being the guy. Seems to have similar athletic traits as Caleb Williams but stays on platform more.
I don't think Daniels makes it to 3 and I think post-combine, he'll potentially go #1.
Drake Maye or Penix? Trade down? Offense has a lot of holes.
Drake Maye or Penix? Trade down? Offense has a lot of holes.
Oh one thing I do think is very possible in the top 5........
I wouldn't count on MHJ being the first non-QB off the board.
I wouldn't count on MHJ being the first non-QB off the board.
I think depending how QBs fall that one of the tackles may go before him. People pencilled him in like 3 months ago, but WRs often slide, even the top one, and this draft is WR deep.
Fashanu and Alt should be people the Patriots seriously look at over the QBs especially Maye. The Pats interior line is god awful any QB they draft is going to get brutally destroyed and have a serious risk of going Mac Jones aka getting happy feet and regressing to nothing.
There is not that big a gap Williams and Penix. The difference is going to be the environment they are brought into. Right now the Pats are complete wasteland for a college QB to enter.
Ah, I thought you might be a Nabers guy. There is a ton of talent in the top 6-7 picks this year. I’m pretty excited about where we sit.
The really good news - especially if you're BB running things - is that with so much talent available, they could probably trade back several spots and still get a tremendous player while adding additional draft capital. If Daniels surpasses Williams and Maye, it's entirely possible that the Pats could get Maye at #6 or #7 if they trade back a few places.
I would guess by re-signing Onwenwu and sliding him back inside, Strange/Andrews/Onwenwu with Sow as the 4th guy is a pretty solid interior.
Not that it matters. They 100% should take a QB, you are far more likely to get what you need at QB/OT by taking the QB at the top of the 1st and whatever OT is left in the 2nd (or slide up to late 1st) than the other way around.
The Athletic had a pretty brutal analysis of Penix the other day. https://theathletic.com/5180257/2024/01/06/michael-penix-jr-nfl-draft-2024-cfp-playoffs/
They didn't like his processing speed or touch on short passes or ability to throw outside the pocket. Weren't particularly sold on the arm talent either. My personal concern is that he has had forever to throw (with Washington, not earlier with Indiana) and won't handle an NFL pass rush well (especially behind the Patriots line). Couple that with the injury history and I don't think you can take him in the top half of the first round.
They didn't like his processing speed or touch on short passes or ability to throw outside the pocket. Weren't particularly sold on the arm talent either. My personal concern is that he has had forever to throw (with Washington, not earlier with Indiana) and won't handle an NFL pass rush well (especially behind the Patriots line). Couple that with the injury history and I don't think you can take him in the top half of the first round.
Yea, they can shift some of the guys they have been using at tackle to guard.
As for your second point, you really aren't. Mac Jones was a top ten rookie season of a first round pick QB of all time. Because of the economics of the situation and the growing disparity between college and pro schemas, teams have been picking QBs much higher than they probably should. QB has the highest bust rate of any position picked in the top five over any other position especially recently.
I'm skeptical. From the 2016 draft onward only one tackle has gone Top 5 (Andrew Thomas #4 in 2020). Teams in general these days just don't seem to value the position enough to want to take swings at the very top of the draft.
Sure, QBs bust a lot, but you're more likely to get a starting QB or better with one of the first 3 QBs drafted than the 4th through 7th, particularly once you're out of the 1st.
Last time you can argue the best QB in the class came outside top 3 guys taken was... 2018 (Lamar vs. Allen), before that it was 2016, which is also the last time you could argue a guy taken outside the top round was the best QB (and only Hurts was even a viable QB after the 1st since then)
If you think a guy can be a franchise QB you draft him 1st round.
Chase is the only WR in the last 6 drafts to go top 5 (#5) as well though. Usually the top non-QB off the board is a DE or CB. I don't see one this year.
Starting in 2018--- #1 OT went over #1 WR (as did #2 and #3 OTs)
2019- #1 OT went over #1 WR (as did #2, #3 OTs)
2020- #1 OT went over #1 WR (as did #2 and #3 OTs)
2021- #1 WR went over #1 OT (as did #2 WR)
2022- #1 OT went over #1 WR (as did #2 OT)
2023- #1 OT went over #1 WR (as did #2, #3 and #4 OT)
The argument for MHJ is that he's Chase in 2021, but generally recent history says OT are more valued than WR in the top half of the 1st round.
I would have to think that by late April, one of the QB or LT spots will be answered so I doubt there will ever be a real consideration of Maye vs Alt/Fashanu
that said, Joe Thomas and Washington era Trent Williams are good examples of a hall of fame caliber tackle being wasted for a lack of QB just the same as a David Carr/Tim Couch being wasted due to lack of OL
and generally speaking, I’d feel more confident in finding a OT somewhere in the next 2 years outside of a top 5 pick than finding a franchise QB. And you’re more likely IMO to succeed with a decent LT and franchise QB than franchise LT and decent QB
In Patriot Reign, there was a section about how the Pats under Belichick re-wrote their scouting manual, in particular for QBs (this is not the old typewritten notes from the Browns/Ravens days that Daniel Jeremiah put up on Twitter). It may as well have been a profile of Brady-QB has to be the hardest worker in the room, accountable, takes criticism/hard coaching, acts like a leader. The guy who has the physical gifts, but without those attributes, ends up being JaMarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf. If Williams, Maye or Daniels don't show those qualities, then don't take any of them. You'll be looking for another QB in 3 years. If you are building a team to be competitive in the playoffs, you sure as shit need the guy who is going to nut up and rally and lead the team in a road playoff game when he doesnt have his best stuff, not the guy who throws for 3 and runs for another at home in September against that year's version of the 2023 Panthers.
If anything, this is where the Pats "missed" on Mac Jones-it's less about him having NFL level physical traits (although I dont feel that he does) and more about him not being able to take what he's being taught and translate it to the field, and rally the team around him. I wonder if BB had discussions with Saban about Jones, and what Saban said. Or if BB just trusted that because Jones played at Alabama, he had those traits (I cannot imagine playing for Nick Saban is easy). BB has always leaned on "his guys", like Pat Hill with Mankins and Greg Schiano with McCourty, to find quality guys. It is interesting to me that BB didnt draft a single tOSU player from the Urban Meyer years (even though they put a ton of guys in the pros) after his experiences with Hernandez, Spikes, et. al. out of Florida.*
Losing Brady on the field sucked. Losing Brady in the locker room might have had an even greater impact. I think this team lacked guys like that on offense this year, but there were some leaders on D who seemed to be able to rally the team. They need some offensive guys who can do that, and it starts with the QB.
*Not sure if I should include Chad Jackson as a "Florida Bust" or a "WR Bust" , since he fits both categories.
If anything, this is where the Pats "missed" on Mac Jones-it's less about him having NFL level physical traits (although I dont feel that he does) and more about him not being able to take what he's being taught and translate it to the field, and rally the team around him. I wonder if BB had discussions with Saban about Jones, and what Saban said. Or if BB just trusted that because Jones played at Alabama, he had those traits (I cannot imagine playing for Nick Saban is easy). BB has always leaned on "his guys", like Pat Hill with Mankins and Greg Schiano with McCourty, to find quality guys. It is interesting to me that BB didnt draft a single tOSU player from the Urban Meyer years (even though they put a ton of guys in the pros) after his experiences with Hernandez, Spikes, et. al. out of Florida.*
Losing Brady on the field sucked. Losing Brady in the locker room might have had an even greater impact. I think this team lacked guys like that on offense this year, but there were some leaders on D who seemed to be able to rally the team. They need some offensive guys who can do that, and it starts with the QB.
*Not sure if I should include Chad Jackson as a "Florida Bust" or a "WR Bust" , since he fits both categories.
There also haven’t been a lot of really good tackles coming out of school. Alt and Fashanu, while I’m skeptical both will end up top 6-7 picks, are two of the best tackles to come out in the last decade.
But are they 2 of the best because there haven't been any really good tackles coming out?
Honestly I think Mac Jones was a case of partly not having other options, but also looking for a Brady. Mac Jones was the guy who didn't have prototype tools, but had good size, was supposed to be smart, read the field well, be a hard worker in the film room and practice, "gritty" etc.
The problem of course is you never got to see how he translated that onto the field in adverse situations because he played at Alabama where the blocking was amazing every down and guys were running open all the time.
I think in many ways you're more likely to miss focusing on intangibles. Oh some things matter... if a guy skips meetings, doesn't put in work... sure. If a guy has substance abuse issues... yep. If he hangs out with gang members from back home and maybe is committing murders and/or trafficking cocaine... well get your 3 seasons.
Bit most intangibles stuff is just dumb, like some of the Caleb Williams criticisms we're seeing already, usually what they really mean is the guy is really good and you can't find real things to pick at.
Or Gonzo last year... not enough of an asshole apparently, like you have to act like Deion Sanders to cover like him.
I don't know how anyone would have looked at Mac in college and concluded that he didn't have "it". The physical tools were iffy but his makeup? He came in as a sophomore to spell Tua and played great, including a bowl win over Michigan where he threw for 327 yards, 3 td, and 0 int. Then as a junior he was absolutely incredible, including these last 5 games (which included conference wins over LSU and Arkansas, then a conference title win over Florida, then a national semifinal win over Notre Dame, then a national championship win over Ohio State):
138-175 (78.9%), 1,772 yds, 10.1 y/a, 18 td, 1 int
There was no indication that he didn't have "it".
I read this and the data cited cannot be ignored but that piece didn't show how he compares to the other top players in the draft. It feels like a piece that was written with the conclusion already in mind. And again, none of these evaluations or mock drafts mean anything anyway. Teams have their own evals and Penix is probably not going where most mocks have him at present.
Finally, as preposterous as it seems if he struggles tonight his draft stock will likely take a hit so there's that too. But I don't think he is lasting into the second round and I will go on the record as saying he goes higher than most people have him at present.
It should! The reward at QB is the biggest, teams should be taking the most risk there, accordingly.
I’m also utterly bereft of the ability to project college guys to the NFL. I did watch a few UNC games and I didn’t come away wowed by Maye. He’s good, no doubt. But he struck me one of those guys who looks like Peyton in shorts and a t-shirt, but may not be Peyton when there are NFL sized linemen and NFL speed defensive backs playing against him.
Penix definitely wowed me much more in the handful of games I saw from him.
Given the history of first round QB drafting, it seems that among Williams, Maye, Daniels and Penix only 1 is going to really pan out.
They might have thought he didn’t have “it” outside of those numbers, though. I seem to recall the big debate was not about his production, which of course was record-setting at Bama. But about his physical tools. And I also believe there was talk about his maturity early in his time there, although Saban said he worked on that.
That’s the challenge, obviously. College stats are not predictive of NFL success. Especially for QBs at powerhouses where a good 75% of their games are against hopelessly overmatched opponents. And at Bama that might be closer to 90%.
Agreed and none of them might. Given the risk/reward of the pick as noted by @Super Nomario above, I want my team to take a swing here - and if that means going after the player who has the intangibles as well as the skills but also carries a lot of baggage, I feel like you have to really think about it. To me that's Penix but there is a reason I am in my mom's basement and not working for an NFL blog, podcast or team.
Only one or at most two. Denials looks awesome but he's about as sturdy as Tyquan Thornton. I really worry about his durability. Maye has all the tools but who knows about his mental processing. Williams plays with his food. Penix could come apart physically at any moment. It's a good class to have a high pick but the uncertainty is still immense.
Don’t sell yourself short Judge, you’re a tremendous slouch.
Seriously, all those guys don’t know that much more. They have access to better info, but they still miss on far more picks than they hit.
I mean, some expert picked Zach Wilson and JaMarcus Russell and Akili Smith, etc. Those guys generally know the difference between a first rounder and a fourth rounder. But #2 vs. #6? Nope, not really.
I feel like the draft has been WR deep every year, but the Pats manage to keep not drafting anyone who can catch the darn ball....
I'm already looking forward to the #3 for #4, #71 and #86 trade with ARI so ARI can take MHJ and NE can take QB3 or OT1.
Picking a QB in the top 3 is more like 20% Pro Bowl rate (Mac Jones made the Pro Bowl). Only two of 15 QBs picked in the top 5 over last 10 years have reached more Pro Bowls than Mac Jones. There are options, but I think there is a serious question about how good they are if Caleb Williams is your leader.
So I was saying it more to make a point, but even at those odds, I'd pick the QB. The way to becoming a Superbowl contender is to use your lottery tickets on the highest odds to get a perennial Top 10 QB. The flameout rate in the Top 5 at QB might be 10X that of Tackle in the same position, but I'd still go for the QB. I'd have WR second on the list. I'm also 100% on board with drafting 2 Top 7-8 QB prospects in the same draft, if the opportunity is there. If the Pats are picking in the 3rd and Bo Nix is still there, for example, I'd probably take him, too.
Yep, cuz, guess what?
1--Mac Jones type stats in college: "He was never challenged, that won't translate when playing against better players."
2--JJ McCarthy type stats in college: "I mean, his numbers are blah, the team never asked him to do much."
3--Bailey Zappe type stats in college: "Sure, he threw for 400+ yards a game, but it's against ODU and MTSU."
4--Josh Allen type stats in college: "Why didn't he dominate at a lower level?"
There's always gonna be some issue if we look hard enough.
That's why you hope your FO talks to these guys, works them out, and gets a feel for the player, because just checking stats won't do it.
Well the good part of your strategy is that you like drafting QBs so you will get draft them for years.