A little early for this thread although it will inform decisions made at the trading deadline, but for now I just wanted to cut and paste a good starting post from the always very well informed 'Go Win' on the RAB blog:
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As the trade deadline comes closer the Yankees have to keep an eye on roster construction for next year. In this context I analyzed a projected base case scenario considering the current 40 man roster, excluding the players that will leave to free agency (Sabathia, Walker, Robertson and Warren) and including some assumptions regarding who should be protected for the next Rule V draft.
- Starting Pitchers (13): Severino, Tanaka, Grey, 1 Starter (trade or free agency), German, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Cessa, Abreu, Acevedo. Sheffield, Adams and Tate are Rule V eligible and “must be protected” in my point of view. Unprotected: Rogers, Swanson, Green, Vargas, Rosa, SanMartin and Cortes amongst others. I would expect them to trade Swanson, Rogers and may be Green as they are starters that should be close to ready for the Majors by year end. Another option would be to trade Cessa who does not have options remaining for next year and instead protect someone like Nick Green or Swanson. The rest of the names in this list represent little Rule V risk.
- Reflief Pitchers (10): Chapman, Betances, Green, 1 reliever (trade or free agency), Kahnle, Holder, 3 of Shreve / Cole / Heller and Gallegos. Carroll has to be protected in my point of view. As a consequence the Yankees will trade one of Shreve / Cole / Heller / Gallegos and leave unprotected Feyereisen, Harvey, Espinal and Angelo Gomez amongst others. Also three lefties are pitching very well in AA and are Rule V targets (Frare, Tarpley and Reeves). If unprotected and healthy any of those guys could be taken, so its likely that at least a few of them could be traded to secure a return rather than losing them for nothing.
- Catchers (3): Sanchez, Romine, Higashioka. This assumes they leave unprotected Sands which is ok as he is still pretty raw and far away from the majors.
- Outfielders (6): Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton, Frazier and McKinney. This assumes they pick the option on Gardner and cut ties with Ellsbury. The biggest names unprotected are Amburguey, Palma and Pablo Olivares. Amburguey is very toolsy, with a lot of potential but still raw. Alexander Palma and Pablo Olivares are too far away to represent a risk. Hendrix, Zehner and Jhalen Jackson are also rule V eligible but with no risk at all in my point of view.
- Corner infielders (3): Bird, Andujar and Drury. This assumes they lose Walker to free Agency and trade Tyler Austin (just no place for him in the roster) and that they leave McBroon, Ford, Gittens, Dermis Garcia and Wagner unprotected. I’d say that McBroon has some risk but there is just no place for him in the roster. Garcia has upside but is still very raw. Wagner is killing righties but still pretty far away to justify the pick. The rest should be generally safe.
- Middle infielders (5): Torres, Gregorius, Torreyes, Wade, Estrada. This assumes they leave Avelino, Kyle Holder, Park, Castillo and Wilkerman Garcia unprotected. Because they are very good defensive middle infielders and close to the majors Avelino and Holder are risks. The Yankees might just bet that they would not stick and keep them or otherwise trade them if they can get something in return.
As you can see at the very least the Yankees might have to trade Tyler Austin, Swanson, Rogers, Green and one of Shreve / Cole / Gallegos / Heller. They would also have to let Ellsbury go. In terms of players to protect from the Rule V draft they would have to focus only on the 4 musts: Sheffield, Adams, Tate and Carroll. As a comsequence they would have to leave a pretty interesting group unprotected including multiple attractive relievers. There’s just no place in the roster for names like Avelino, Park, Holder, Feyereisen, Swanson, Rogers, Harvey, Espinal, Frare, Tarpley, Reeves, McBroom to name a few that could well be taken.
That is clearly a base case though. In the most probable scenario the team will trade multiple pieces in order to get a starter to solidify the top of the rotation. In that case their roster construction problem might just go away, at least partially. Also the Yankees might need to trade a few pieces for international bonus pool money lowering the number of prospects exposed to the Rule V draft. Needless to say that if they feel strongly that a prospect will be lost to the Rule V draft and has no place in the roster Cashman will be proactive in securing a trade (see Rumbelow, Caleb Smith, Ben Gamel, Ronald Herrera, etc) for a lower minors prospect. In any case the above background should be an interesting piece of information to keep in mind while we see the front office operate in the coming months.
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As the trade deadline comes closer the Yankees have to keep an eye on roster construction for next year. In this context I analyzed a projected base case scenario considering the current 40 man roster, excluding the players that will leave to free agency (Sabathia, Walker, Robertson and Warren) and including some assumptions regarding who should be protected for the next Rule V draft.
- Starting Pitchers (13): Severino, Tanaka, Grey, 1 Starter (trade or free agency), German, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Cessa, Abreu, Acevedo. Sheffield, Adams and Tate are Rule V eligible and “must be protected” in my point of view. Unprotected: Rogers, Swanson, Green, Vargas, Rosa, SanMartin and Cortes amongst others. I would expect them to trade Swanson, Rogers and may be Green as they are starters that should be close to ready for the Majors by year end. Another option would be to trade Cessa who does not have options remaining for next year and instead protect someone like Nick Green or Swanson. The rest of the names in this list represent little Rule V risk.
- Reflief Pitchers (10): Chapman, Betances, Green, 1 reliever (trade or free agency), Kahnle, Holder, 3 of Shreve / Cole / Heller and Gallegos. Carroll has to be protected in my point of view. As a consequence the Yankees will trade one of Shreve / Cole / Heller / Gallegos and leave unprotected Feyereisen, Harvey, Espinal and Angelo Gomez amongst others. Also three lefties are pitching very well in AA and are Rule V targets (Frare, Tarpley and Reeves). If unprotected and healthy any of those guys could be taken, so its likely that at least a few of them could be traded to secure a return rather than losing them for nothing.
- Catchers (3): Sanchez, Romine, Higashioka. This assumes they leave unprotected Sands which is ok as he is still pretty raw and far away from the majors.
- Outfielders (6): Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton, Frazier and McKinney. This assumes they pick the option on Gardner and cut ties with Ellsbury. The biggest names unprotected are Amburguey, Palma and Pablo Olivares. Amburguey is very toolsy, with a lot of potential but still raw. Alexander Palma and Pablo Olivares are too far away to represent a risk. Hendrix, Zehner and Jhalen Jackson are also rule V eligible but with no risk at all in my point of view.
- Corner infielders (3): Bird, Andujar and Drury. This assumes they lose Walker to free Agency and trade Tyler Austin (just no place for him in the roster) and that they leave McBroon, Ford, Gittens, Dermis Garcia and Wagner unprotected. I’d say that McBroon has some risk but there is just no place for him in the roster. Garcia has upside but is still very raw. Wagner is killing righties but still pretty far away to justify the pick. The rest should be generally safe.
- Middle infielders (5): Torres, Gregorius, Torreyes, Wade, Estrada. This assumes they leave Avelino, Kyle Holder, Park, Castillo and Wilkerman Garcia unprotected. Because they are very good defensive middle infielders and close to the majors Avelino and Holder are risks. The Yankees might just bet that they would not stick and keep them or otherwise trade them if they can get something in return.
As you can see at the very least the Yankees might have to trade Tyler Austin, Swanson, Rogers, Green and one of Shreve / Cole / Gallegos / Heller. They would also have to let Ellsbury go. In terms of players to protect from the Rule V draft they would have to focus only on the 4 musts: Sheffield, Adams, Tate and Carroll. As a comsequence they would have to leave a pretty interesting group unprotected including multiple attractive relievers. There’s just no place in the roster for names like Avelino, Park, Holder, Feyereisen, Swanson, Rogers, Harvey, Espinal, Frare, Tarpley, Reeves, McBroom to name a few that could well be taken.
That is clearly a base case though. In the most probable scenario the team will trade multiple pieces in order to get a starter to solidify the top of the rotation. In that case their roster construction problem might just go away, at least partially. Also the Yankees might need to trade a few pieces for international bonus pool money lowering the number of prospects exposed to the Rule V draft. Needless to say that if they feel strongly that a prospect will be lost to the Rule V draft and has no place in the roster Cashman will be proactive in securing a trade (see Rumbelow, Caleb Smith, Ben Gamel, Ronald Herrera, etc) for a lower minors prospect. In any case the above background should be an interesting piece of information to keep in mind while we see the front office operate in the coming months.