Cole also produced 19.4 fWAR between ages 25-28; the unique thing about YY is you don't typically get access to that window in a free agent.
Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years
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Which is why he’s going to get the contract he’s going to get and what makes this unique.
This has become a hornets nest where the fan assumption is this guy is 25 year old Gerrit Cole. I think that’s a very poor assumption.
I’m simply trying to reenforce we don’t really know exactly what we are trying to buy, and neither does anyone else.
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Thank you for posting the video. It appears, from what little we know, that teams are bidding for him reaching 90-95% of his potential upside. Which he may very well reach or exceed in the next 2-3 years. But there's obviously larger than typical error bars, and an adjustment season in 2024 is also not out of the question.
Why would the Sox make it though? It's putting more than 10% of the yearly budget into one pitcher.
If he's Pedroesque good, the Sox have a 3 year window to go deep into the post-season, and that's with the financial constraint he brings.
If he's only a top 15 pitcher or so, the Sox have overpaid for a necessary piece.
If he's injured, the Sox commit to a massive overpay for 10 years. It could be Chris Sale or Dice-K for a decade.
To be clear, I don't think he's going to be Cole, just continuing the comparison.
It's an interesting question. I do think locking in a top 35 pitcher as young as YY has value beyond pure WAR. I also think the top teams wouldn't have priced everyone else out of the market if they only saw him as that.
This is probably a bad idea since Breslow will, in all likelihood, be in the position of trying to convince JWH to back up the truck for Snell and/or Montgomery.
For kicks I just checked a list of pitchers and their 2023 WAR values. Number 35 on the list? Anyone? Anyone?
Brayan Bello.
I think I have been afraid the we were going to lose out on the next Pedro, or Sandy Koufax. But I'm becoming more worried that we are going to pay (insert obscene money here) for a starter with an ERA above four. I don't think he will be a Pedro, or a Bello, but I think if I'm the guy in charge I spend less on someone who is more proven, who I have to commit fewer years to. I think. And then do it again (or explore the trade market).
I think the big question for me is how Yamamoto's fastball looks by age 29-30. I think his conditioning and athleticism is terrific but 5' 10" is a very small frame for a pitcher. He's probably throwing 92-93 in a few years, which paired with below average extension could be pretty unideal.
The upside of losing out on Yamamoto is that we potentially get to do this again next year with Sasaki. And of course we'd be well positioned in the Soto sweepstakes.
But, y'know, let's see what happens.
The upside of losing out on Yamamoto is that we potentially get to do this again next year with Sasaki. And of course we'd be well positioned in the Soto sweepstakes.
But, y'know, let's see what happens.
Funny you say age 29, that's right about when Tim Lincecum turned into a pumpkin. That might be a good reference as, surprisingly & even though he's been out of baseball since 2017, Tim only just turned 39 in June.
If he didn’t make the trip up, and it’s clear that the RS are out of it (two different considerations), wouldn’t Brez have pivoted immediately to one of the ot
That’s an interesting question. How does Sasaki compare to YY? is it possible that ownership decided to keep its powder dry for the next cycle of free agency? That may be a compelling rationale for not going all out in this cycle, particularly if Cohen and the NYY were getting into a pissing contest over the New York market.
I've absolutely no idea how this may or may not have played into things, but let me ask a question to those fixated on Yamamoto visiting both New York teams on Sunday and not going to Fenway. Is it at all reasonable to consider the possibility that Yamamoto had no intention of flying to Boston on Sunday after taking two meetings in New York? And a follow up question... could the fact that weather affected 130 flights at Logan on Monday have played a part in all of this as well? I mean that's assuming that any of us has even the faintest idea of what is happening here.
MLB says it's worth $460 million. I guess if you round up to the nearest $500, it's close. But I don't think Cole would be getting Shohei's deal, never mind 10% more.
According to
@chadjennings22
and
@jcmccaffrey
, the Red Sox believe they’re still in the mix for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. “Team sources indicate the Boston Red Sox are still very much in the mix, but how the bidding war progresses is the big question.” Apparently the Red Sox seem willing to extend beyond their comfort zone, but there’s a question to whether they’ll go as far as some teams are apparently willing to go. No excuse not to be offering similar deals as any other team considering the team’s current financial situation.
https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1737468823656169847?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Yeah, by the looks of it they’re out of it.
@chadjennings22
and
@jcmccaffrey
, the Red Sox believe they’re still in the mix for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. “Team sources indicate the Boston Red Sox are still very much in the mix, but how the bidding war progresses is the big question.” Apparently the Red Sox seem willing to extend beyond their comfort zone, but there’s a question to whether they’ll go as far as some teams are apparently willing to go. No excuse not to be offering similar deals as any other team considering the team’s current financial situation.
https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1737468823656169847?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Yeah, by the looks of it they’re out of it.
Is it possible Alex Speier is simply mistaken? There’s no chance his source(s) in this tight-lipped front office misled him to keep things under wraps?
Again, I'm begging people to take age into consideration. Ohtani is 29 years old, he'll turn 30 months into his first season as a Dodger. Ohtani has been worth about 30 WAR already since turning 25. At 10 million/WAR, that's 300 million in value in those seasons alone. And those are the years you're buying with Yamamoto in hope that they'll make up for the very back end of the deal.
Well if it is really about a “bidding war,” then whether they are in it or not is up to them. If they are not in it then they should immediately turn their attention to plan B, which is, I presume, figuring out a way to move to the AL Central.
I think there are a couple of possibilities in play here.
Best case scenario for the Sox is that YY flew to NYC to more easily meet with the top brass of the east coast teams at one location, like a hotel - Phillies, Yanks, Sox, and Mets.
Worst case is for the Sox is if he went to Citifield or Yankee stadium and spent significant time there, and just took the Phillies and the Sox offers as courtesies (and to help drive up the price.)
Unless he's very comfortable with a virtual walk through, I think it's unlikely that he signs with a club where he hasn't visited the facilities and the park. That seems a reasonable given, but what do we know?
Of course, if that's true, it does not rule out a visit to Philly or Boston between now and Jan 4, should one of those teams become a finalist.
What I'd like to know (there's so much noise on this and so little signal) is what his NYC visit was actually like. Did he even go to Yankee stadium? Knowing something like that might lead to slightly better informed guessing at where things currently stand. I'd also be curious to know if he ever visited the US before and if so, where he's been.
The problem with Plan B is that everyone is locked pending YY's decision. Why would Snell for example cut any deal when a good 1/2 of his potential market is frozen elsewhere? If Brez knew the RS were out of it, presumably he would pivot quickly to his next best alternatives unless the alternatives simply were waiting out the process. The fact that he hasn't leads to 1 of 2 conclusions: either that the RS are still in it, or he can't find anyone interested in dealing pitchers. The second alternative is less likely IMO simply because he has too many other holes to fill.
Just call me Pangloss
Not sure that I read it that way. According to the link, the Sox think they're in it, or at least are saying so. They don't know how the bidding process will go -- which is obvious. They are not going to come out and say "we will outbid everyone" or "we will bid, but only up until 310 million for 11 years". The rest is Milliken trying to read between the lines.
Nobody knows anything.
My only issue with Sasaki is are we certain he'll be posted next year? From what I understand of posting rules, it is generally at the team's discretion if they want to allow the player to be posted (unless that player is a free agent, anyway). So while skipping Yamamoto in order to possibly get Sasaki is an option, it seems like there is very little certainty there. If my understanding of the posting rules is wrong, someone please let me know.
The last place team in the AL East should be relegated to the AL Central, with the AL Central "champ" promoted to the AL East to replace them. Would make the playoff races a little more fair, and Detroit and Cleveland could occasionally spend a year back in the East like in the old days.
Nobody knows nuthin. I agree with that. BUT, you have to imagine the Sox invited him to come to Fenway, right? And if the reports are true and he has not (big IF) then it's hard to see how the Sox can think they have any realistic shot to sign him. How else can you take a decline to visit given the scope of what this deal will look like?
So if all that is true then I'd have to believe the Sox are on to Plan B while paying lip-service to Plan A.
So if all that is true then I'd have to believe the Sox are on to Plan B while paying lip-service to Plan A.
This might be a super-optimistic view (which is out of character for me!), but perhaps he is waiting on visiting certain cities / ballparks until he has cut his long list to a short list? Like, why visit 8 places if only 3 are truly viable? Perhaps once he has it down to a top 3 or whatever based on contract proposals, he'll make final visits to help make his decision.
Obviously as a 25 year old foreigner about to sign a 10+ year deal, he is going to want to be comfortable in whatever city he signs. He won't sign blindly (hello, Manny; although at least Manny had been to Boston before!).
Obviously as a 25 year old foreigner about to sign a 10+ year deal, he is going to want to be comfortable in whatever city he signs. He won't sign blindly (hello, Manny; although at least Manny had been to Boston before!).
Then Fenway Sports Group should sell the team. YY is 30-60% cheaper to them than the other teams involved. If they can't competitively bid while getting a huge discount why should Red Sox sell their tickets at a premium. They aren't a top 3 product and have no intention to be so.
It is really not collusion to refuse to bid on a player, at least I’m unaware of any basis for that fear. It is also not collusion to drop out of a bidding process, at least based on anything that I’ve seen or am aware of. There are many examples of teams saying so and doing so in various ways - a quick review of recent high-profile free agents shows this pretty conclusively.
What teams cannot do based on past settlements/litigations is some more specific scenarios, like a) communicate among themselves about a decision to pursue or not pursue any individual player or b) have an agreement across all teams about categories of players to pursue or not. What got teams in trouble, for example, many years ago was agreeing not to pursue other team’s free agents.
I guess people can have more and less fear around this but collusion is a relatively defined thing and would be surprised if those experienced in assessing would draw the line anywhere near what is described in the thread. I don’t think you can really come close to a “signaling” theory on collusion based on one team dropping out of a multiteam process after a player has refused to visit them.
what I believe is more true is that there’s no realistic tactical benefit to Red Sox in removing themselves publicly from process—-it doesn’t help them other than showing spite towards the player which is briefly emotionally satisfying but otherwise also not productive. It also is more useful as they negotiate with other players or possible trades to at least be able to represent they are still in on YY even if other teams heavily discount that.
The post you are literally responding to quotes a reporter as saying "Team sources indicate the Red Sox are still very much in the mix." It sounds to me as though they have decided, just as they have all along, that they are in it.
There are three possible scenarios for Sasaki (ignoring the chance of injury):
1) He comes over in 2027 as originally anticipated, in which case the bidding/craziness will be like it was for Yamamoto this year. This is what I think will happen still.
2) He forces his way over after 2024, costing himself hundreds of millions of dollars and his team tens of millions of dollars. In this case, his FA will be like Ohtani's the first time, he will cost close to nothing and every team with any chance will be in on him.This is what @Tokyo Sox thinks will happen (apologies if that's not correct, TS).
3) MLB somehow decides to change the rules before next season, I think there's no chance of this but it is theoretically possible.
Speier is very good but he does get things wrong. I remember he was one of the first prominent media to refute the Spanish report that the Sox sent a contingent to the DR to meet with Devers…which ended up being true
Reporter: "The Red Sox are telling me they're still very much in it. In my opinion this means the Sox will go beyond their comfort zone. But I don't have information on whether they will go as far as other teams."
SOSH: "They should sell the team!"
The other problem with Sasaki is as an under 25 IFA, hes going to be subject to the amateur IFA bonus rules that Ohtani was. That effectively makes his decision entirely what city does he want to live in and what team does he want to play for. Theres no option to pay $350M instead of $320M (numbers illustrative obviously) to make that decision difficult.
If Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers, do the owners of the Yankees and Mets have to sell their teams and move into their leagues' respective central division? What about if he goes with the Yankees...do for sale signs have to go up in Queens and LA? Or, God Forbid, if he winds up with the Mets does that mean both the Dodgers AND the Yankees have to be sold?
Yup. the Ol (The Red sox are only in the DR to celebrate Devers Birthday)
That would have been one expensive birthday cake
Remember when it was said this forum is better than the whining on X/Twitter? Nope.
Not disagreeing (you tend to be one of the posters I agree with most), but if I was a 25 year old player about to make bank in a foreign country and teams were willing to fly me out to wine and dine me and put me up in the nicest hotel they can find... I would probably take nearly every one of them up on that offer to at least hear them out.
If Yamamoto has a great first year, wherever he plays, It could be reasonable to say that it would drive up Sasaki's price even more and it becomes YY 2.0. For any team hoping to get YY that loses out, I think Sasaki is a shitty backup plan given the uncertainty around his posting and what may happen to big market teams still looking to strike gold on young superstars.
Ehhh, it's not like he can't afford an elegant meal pre-contract anyway. He's not a 17yo college recruit.
I
I finally clicked through on this. This is such a shit show. This isn't even a fucking reporter's opinion! This is an associate producer for the Zolak and Bertrand HotTakez radio show. He read the quotes provided by two actual reporters--ones reporting that the Sox are still very much in the mix--and then gave his own HotTake. This is what we're basing our latest round of outrage on. Total insanity.
It bears repeating that the Red Sox have zero to gain, and lots to lose, by continuing to present themselves as suitors if they believe there's no chance they will get him. If they believe they are out, they will absolutely find a way to get that sentiment out there in an effort to minimize the PR hit of failing to land him. Not only are they not whispering that they're out, they are reportedly whispering that they're still in it. They simply have to believe that they are given all that.
Of course, that does not mean that they will get him! Only one team will. The odds are against every individual team. Even the Yankees and Dodgers can't feel particularly optimistic given that they can't both have him. But the Sox clearly believe as of 11 a.m. EST that they have at least some chance of landing him. We'll know that's changed when we start getting reports that sources are saying they're not feeling optimistic.
Of course, that does not mean that they will get him! Only one team will. The odds are against every individual team. Even the Yankees and Dodgers can't feel particularly optimistic given that they can't both have him. But the Sox clearly believe as of 11 a.m. EST that they have at least some chance of landing him. We'll know that's changed when we start getting reports that sources are saying they're not feeling optimistic.
Agreed. I am personally doubtful that we win the YY sweepstakes, but that is based on nothing other than subjective opinion and the intense nature of the competition.
There is perhaps even more intense competition to report on this topic, and I suspect there are not nearly as many guardrails now as with more traditional journalism. The goal is to be first and to get clicks, and yet at the same time the YY camp has been completely opaque and impenetrable (as have the Red Sox for that matter). What is being tossed around as red meat is likely mostly speculation from low-level sources that really know nothing, as well as self-serving 'leaks' from various camps to manipulate the PR campaign. No one really does know anything right now. And to quote the late Mr. Petty, the waiting is the hardest part.
I’m assuming the point is driving potential suitors out of the race.
Anyone who goes to the Yankees expecting a winning/“championship or bust“ culture is Rip Van Winkle.
Excellent idea.The last place team in the AL East should be relegated to the AL Central, with the AL Central "champ" promoted to the AL East to replace them. Would make the playoff races a little more fair, and Detroit and Cleveland could occasionally spend a year back in the East like in the old days.
That process is likely more of a pain in the ass
than it would be worth. If you're narrowed down to a couple of teams and are conducting final negotiations then perhaps you take a day with each and let them make their last, best pitch to win you over while you see in person some of what is important enough to you to make a decision, then I can see it.
Cleveland is already further east than Tampa/St. Pete. Bring on geographical re-alignment of the AL.The last place team in the AL East should be relegated to the AL Central, with the AL Central "champ" promoted to the AL East to replace them. Would make the playoff races a little more fair, and Detroit and Cleveland could occasionally spend a year back in the East like in the old days.
I can’t wait for a new thread one year from now entitled “Red Sox: Victorious,” an alternate reality of what the FSG brand would look like had the Sox signed Yamamoto. John Sickels will come out of retirement, dust off his Crystal Ball and give us a 10-year glimpse of what could have been had the man in the high castle (John Henry) stood up to the Evil Empire.
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