NFC Championship: Falcons vs. Packers (Discussion and Game Thread)

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I very much enjoyed the result of the first game last week after starting the equivalent thread for the Divisional Round games, so I'll try again this week.

Rodgers is legitimately terrifying, but so is the entire Atlanta offense - e.g., if Adams and Nelson are both out for Green Bay (quite possible), it could be that the best five or six receivers in the game will all be Falcons. Atlanta's defense still isn't good, but what it does have is playmakers, and a few sacks plus a turnover or two could be all it takes given the state of the GB defense. I expect a high-scoring game, but for the first time, I believe the Falcons are justifiably favored to reach the Super Bowl. (I also wonder if the Packers may just run out of gas; yesterday's game must have been very draining for them, and they haven't had a bye since Week 4.)

 

[ethangl]

Rodgers drew up that last play in the dirt, er, rubber pellets:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18490003/one-greatest-plays-2-minute-drill

 

[Soxy]

I just don't see how Green Bay's defense stops Atlanta's offense. Like, at all. Atlanta may not punt.

As great as Aaron Rodgers is, and he's legitimately great, he's always been a bit of a front runner. He's only had ten 4th quarter comebacks in his career, including playoffs. I get that a lot of that is because, you know, he's so good that he's not often trailing in the 4th quarter. But that's still a surprisingly small number compared to his peers. Russel Wilson has 17 fourth quarter comebacks in four fewer seasons as a starter. The immortal Mark Sanchez has 10 fourth quarter comebacks. And it's not like the Packers have been an invincible juggernaut that's constantly steamrolling their opponents. Since Rodgers became the starter in 2008 they've had two seasons with 12 or more wins. The Packers average win total with Rodgers is 10.3. They're always good but they're rarely great. One would think that a QB as good as Rodgers would have a few more comeback wins under his belt. When you think of the best NFL QBs throughout the years, you always think about their great 4th quarter comebacks. You just don't get that with Rodgers. I honestly can't remember any dramatic comeback wins of his, besides a couple late bombs to beat the Bears.

All of that is to say that this feels like the kind of game that Green Bay needs to control from the outset if they're going to win. And even that may not be enough. As we saw yesterday, no Green Bay lead is safe with that secondary and that running game. Especially against an offense like Atlanta's. If the Falcons get a lead, Atlanta's running game is good enough to help salt it away but they're also not afraid to keep throwing it to keep the pressure on either. And Rodgers hasn't exactly been the comeback king.

The Falcons simply have more paths to victory than Green Bay, who are basically relying solely on Rodgers and a roll of duct tape. That could end up being enough but I think the Falcons advance.

 

[Toe Nash]

How many wins does he have in the last two minutes of a tie game or in OT (Like last week)? That seems just as "clutch" as comebacks. Or, how many times did he go ahead late and his defense blew it at the end? I'm not sure if they move the needle but these should be included.

I agree with your other points about the game though. Atlanta seems on another level unless Ryan makes some mistakes.

 

[dcmissle]

I expect Atlanta to win this game. But this is Brady on Rodgers:

“I think he does things that no one in the league has ever done, or can do, just because of his physical ability,” Brady said on WEEI. “Some of the plays he makes are just — they’re just phenomenal. Not just the throws but the scrambles.”

Brady said he makes a point of watching the Packers, even if they’re on late and he has an early practice the next day.

“Everything really looks effortless with him, which is probably the amazing part. He’s definitely working hard, but he’s making hard look easy. It’s a very effortless style he plays with. The velocity of the ball, the placement of the ball, he’s just an incredible player. He works very hard at it, he’s a very talented player, and he’s just having an incredible season. It’s fun to watch him play I always love watching him play. Whenever he’s on, I usually stay up and watch.”

And he is right. No one else makes this play. If I'm a Falcons fan, I'm borderline terrified.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

If I'm a Falcons fan, I'm borderline terrified.

I am, and I am.

I'm verrry interested to see what the Packers injury report looks like later in the week. A lot of borderline cases there to keep an eye on.

 

[Marciano490]

Not sure if it helps or hurts, but those "Rodgers doesn't talk to his family" stories are percolating again. Maybe he'll be distracted, or maybe he'll take it out on Atlanta.

 

[dcmissle]

I am, and I am.

I'm verrry interested to see what the Packers injury report looks like later in the week. A lot of borderline cases there to keep an eye on.

This report is almost certain to be more upfront than Seattle's.

Have not looked forward to a game this much in a while. (The Pats' games come with stress that lessens the enjoyment).

 

[coremiller]

I just don't see how Green Bay's defense stops Atlanta's offense. Like, at all. Atlanta may not punt.

As great as Aaron Rodgers is, and he's legitimately great, he's always been a bit of a front runner. He's only had ten 4th quarter comebacks in his career, including playoffs. I get that a lot of that is because, you know, he's so good that he's not often trailing in the 4th quarter. But that's still a surprisingly small number compared to his peers. Russel Wilson has 17 fourth quarter comebacks in four fewer seasons as a starter. The immortal Mark Sanchez has 10 fourth quarter comebacks. And it's not like the Packers have been an invincible juggernaut that's constantly steamrolling their opponents. Since Rodgers became the starter in 2008 they've had two seasons with 12 or more wins. The Packers average win total with Rodgers is 10.3. They're always good but they're rarely great. One would think that a QB as good as Rodgers would have a few more comeback wins under his belt. When you think of the best NFL QBs throughout the years, you always think about their great 4th quarter comebacks. You just don't get that with Rodgers. I honestly can't remember any dramatic comeback wins of his, besides a couple late bombs to beat the Bears.

All of that is to say that this feels like the kind of game that Green Bay needs to control from the outset if they're going to win. And even that may not be enough. As we saw yesterday, no Green Bay lead is safe with that secondary and that running game. Especially against an offense like Atlanta's. If the Falcons get a lead, Atlanta's running game is good enough to help salt it away but they're also not afraid to keep throwing it to keep the pressure on either. And Rodgers hasn't exactly been the comeback king.

The Falcons simply have more paths to victory than Green Bay, who are basically relying solely on Rodgers and a roll of duct tape. That could end up being enough but I think the Falcons advance.

I think a lot of the stuff with Rodgers' lack of comeback wins and game-winning drives is flukey randomness. Just on Sunday, he had two GWDs in two minutes. In the playoffs, he's had a number of games where he came back late to tie the game and then the defense blew it: the 2009 51-45 game against Arizona (GB scored late to tie the game, AZ won in OT), the 2013 wildcard game against SF (GB scored late to tie the game, SF won with a FG as time expired), the 2014 Conf Championship against Seattle (GB kicked a late FG to tie the game, then lost in OT), the 2015 Hail Mary against Arizona (AZ won in OT).

 

[Al Zarilla]

This report is almost certain to be more upfront than Seattle's.

Have not looked forward to a game this much in a while. (The Pats' games come with stress that lessens the enjoyment).

Things go our way a LOT, but I wish Pats were playing first on Sunday so we could really get out the popcorn for Packers-Falcons with no worries (assuming we win).

 

[TFisNEXT]

It is hard to imagine the Packers defense holding Atlanta to under 35. Dallas shot themselves in the foot for 3 possessions to start the game and still put up 31. Atlanta is more explosive. I think Rodgers will have to be flawless for them to win or they hope for some fluke turnovers by Atlanta.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Yeah, I suck at NFL predictions but I think the GB defense in its current form may be one of the worst defenses in the league (I'm assuming Burnett doesn't play or is limited). I'd take the under on 1.5 punts for the Falcons. I can't see how GB can keep pace...

 

[tims4wins]

I don't think this ends up being all that close. I think the Packers will get theirs, scoring into the upper 20s. But I think Atlanta gets to the upper 30s or low 40s in this one. Something like 38-27 or 41-27.

 

[coremiller]

Yeah, I suck at NFL predictions but I think the GB defense in its current form may be one of the worst defenses in the league (I'm assuming Burnett doesn't play or is limited). I'd take the under on 1.5 punts for the Falcons. I can't see how GB can keep pace...

I think the over on 1.5 punts is the better bet. One pretty likely outcome has ATL up a lot in the 2nd half and running to kill clock, leading to more punts. They punted on 3/9 drives against Seattle while scoring 36 in very low-possession game. With two good passing offenses ATL will more likely have 12 or 13 possessions. They could punt twice and still score 40.

This is a game where McCarthy's conservatism is going to hurt. GB should be going for all marginal 4th downs in this game: with two great offenses, field position matters less and scoring TDs rather than FGs matters a lot more. But that's never been McCarthy's style.

 

[Stitch01]

He sometimes button clicks aggressive 4th down decisions, but he's a lock to do dumb stuff like

• 1st and 10 at DAL 35
  (1:52 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 33 for 2 yards (D.Lawrence).
  
  
• (1:48 - 4th) Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:48.
• 2nd and 8 at DAL 33
  (1:48 - 4th) T.Montgomery left tackle to DAL 38 for -5 yards (D.Lawrence).
• (1:44 - 4th) Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:44.

 

[TFisNEXT]

He sometimes button clicks aggressive 4th down decisions, but he's a lock to do dumb stuff like

• 1st and 10 at DAL 35
  (1:52 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 33 for 2 yards (D.Lawrence).
  
  
• (1:48 - 4th) Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:48.
• 2nd and 8 at DAL 33
  (1:48 - 4th) T.Montgomery left tackle to DAL 38 for -5 yards (D.Lawrence).
• (1:44 - 4th) Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:44.

Yep, that was awful. Very nearly cost GB the game too if Crosby hadn't bailed him out by hitting a 56 yard FG. If he misses that FG, then DAL gets the ball near midfield in a tie game with about 1:35 left and a timeout. They would have likely taken the air out of the ball a bit with Zeke once in FG range and won the game on the last play.

With the way Rodgers is playing, there is no excuse not to throw...especially since your own running game is pretty crappy anyway.

This is even more reason why Rodgers will probably have to be flawless to win. The GB defense is already awful enough, but throw in one or two dumb McCarthy moves to overcome as well.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

The flip side of the McCarthy bashing is that Dan Quinn hasn't yet proven himself to be a good late-game tactician. I give you "the worst timeout the NFL has ever seen", from the Falcons game in Philadelphia this year:

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/the-atlanta-falcons-blew-it-again-calling-the-worst-timeout-the-nfl-has-ever-seen-111316

And how about that decision to go for it on 4th and 1 in Atlanta territory in overtime against San Diego? I didn't mind that decision in principle, but a halfback dive into a stacked line was beyond stupid. So if the game is close late in the fourth quarter, don't be surprised if McCarthy benefits from a bad coaching decision, instead of committing it himself.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

That is one LONG injury report for the Packers:

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2017/1/20/14341696/packers-falcons-injury-report-jordy-nelson-davante-adams-geronimo-allison-morgan-burnett

Oh, and there's a viral bug going around the Packers locker room - and Rodgers has it:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776975/article/aaron-rodgers-says-hes-under-the-weather

 

[InstaFace]

I think Atlanta gets to the upper 30s or low 40s in this one. Something like 38-27 or 41-27.

Yeah, that'd be a good score in a conference championship game. I wonder if it's ever been done before.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

First the injuries, then the sickness bug, and now travel delays:

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0614579052409264119-4

TSA agents at the Milwaukee airport are setting up for the Packers, who had to bus nearly two hours from Green Bay after fog prevented them from taking off. That means a much later arrival in Atlanta than originally thought.

Feels like this is all setting up a miracle Green Bay win or an Atlanta blowout.

 

[tims4wins]

First the injuries, then the sickness bug, and now travel delays:

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0614579052409264119-4


Feels like this is all setting up a miracle Green Bay win or an Atlanta blowout.

The way the week has gone feels the same for the Pats game

 

[Michelle34B]

Aaron Rodgers is on a tear right now, but his 2011 playoff game against the Falcons is the best QB performance I have seen.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

don't overlook Matty Ice Ryan making a couple boneheaded picks tomorrow.

 

[dcmissle]

Based on the season to date, I wouldn't bet on that.

But I am having a hard time remembering when a QB has had so much riding on a game or two. Maybe it was Rodgers winning SB MVP.

If Ryan wins tomorrow and plays well in the SB, he will be catapulted into the very thin rank of elite QBs in public estimation. If he soils himself in either of these games, all we'll hear is "the moment was too big." This isn't fair necessarily, but that's how these things tend to play out. If there were any elite defenses in the League this year, maybe a big if, they are all home watching at this point. Ryan has no excuses.

 

[Ale Xander]

Saints are playing in this one?

 

[bankshot1]

now that's just showin off

 

[Kliq]

That was a really kickass anthem.

 

[crossdog]

Farve should be in the Necessary Roughness reboot.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

That was a really kickass anthem.

Really good

 

[Kliq]

You know, it wouldn't surprise me if Atlanta won this game like 38-17 and GB was never in it. I think people have been sleeping on their offense.

 

[snowmanny]

You know, it wouldn't surprise me if Atlanta won this game like 38-17 and GB was never in it. I think people have been sleeping on their offense.

Yes. It also wouldn't surprise me if Rodgers didn't make five ridiculous throws this time. regression to the mean and all that.

 

[DJnVa]

You know, it wouldn't surprise me if Atlanta won this game like 38-17 and GB was never in it. I think people have been sleeping on their offense.

People have been sleeping on the #1 offense and likely NFL MVP?

 

[Schnerres]

Will they again open the game with a touchdown drive (now 7 consecutive)?
I say: FG.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Did Buck say Ryan was 31 for 36 in 3rd downs the last something games? Holy shit!

 

[Kliq]

Yes. It also wouldn't surprise me if Rodgers didn't make five ridiculous throws this time. regression to the mean and all that.

People seem to forget that Rodgers threw two costly picks against Dallas and let them back into the game. I don't buy all the "nobody has played this well ever" chatter.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Too high of a pass there Matty.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Lol GB cannot stop a 3rd down

 

[pokey_reese]

Packers defense has no ability to stop this Falcons team, it would appear.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

Rodgers will need 40 to win this.

 

[RoyHobbs]

Packers are porous.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Why running Shanny?

 

[bigsid05]

Wow. Great catch by Sanu. Let's see if it stands.

 

[snowmanny]

Ryan could have run that in.

 

[pokey_reese]

Even with the terrible drop, that drive was way too easy. That ATL offense is scary good.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

He looked Hyde off on that play. Wow.

 

[Freddy Linn]

Big penalty for the kickoff too.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Not sure there is a defense left that can stop this ATL offense, and that includes the Pats.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Overcame a huge drop and converted three third downs.

Eight opening drive touchdowns in a row I think.

 

[RoyHobbs]

Not sure there is a defense left that can stop this ATL offense, and that includes the Pats.

Greatest shows on turf, etc....

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Nice start.