But is that worth it in the long run? Margin of victory has never mattered in the regular season before.
NBA In-Season Tournament 2023 Discussion and Gamethread
- Thread starter InstaFace
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I mean to the players (or the refs aside from the scandal obviously). Like, are the Jays going to ask to stay in the game if they're up by 20 with a minute to play so they can push the lead to 23?
I think you're forgetting just how competitive you need to be to work as hard as these guys do every single day of their lives to beat the competition.
The Celtics had a fairly easy win yesterday at home vs the Hawks. They get today off, before being 9 point (for now) favorites tomorrow vs the Bulls. They then get Wednesday and Thursday off before having a home game on Friday. Would it be shocking if they are up 15 heading into the 4th to see them try to step on the gas? Or what if they are up 20?
Given they are a team that some members of this board believe have no "heart" and aren't "mentally tough" wouldn't YOU as a fan want them to actually try to win the in-season tournament to prove to themselves that they can actually go all the way, even if it's a fairly gimicky tournament where a single loss can send you packing?
It was the results from this past Friday that made me wonder about the margins of victory. There were 10 games, seven were decided by 10 points or more (ranging from 10 to 23); one by 2 points, one by 3 and one by 6. Seems like a pretty normal distribution.
NBA Scores - November 24, 2023 - ESPN
Clearly, the Magic went all out. Cs giving up 36 in the 4th quarter the other night was brutal for their tourney chances. Wagner waltzed in for a finger roll at the end with 9 seconds; something you would never otherwise see a team do up by 15.
It was 92-104 with two minutes to play exactly. After that, the Cs got beat 9-4. It will be interesting to see if that matters.
This sums it up. If the players are motivated to run the Bulls out of the building with 48 sustained minutes than they certainty could. Remember that all of this is uncharted waters for the players approach as well.
My guess is that it will be more important to the players next season and beyond. Once they see how the NBA will market this into a big event and how valuable it would have been to their brand....I'd bet many of the players will be watching like, "Damnnn, if I had known it was gonna be all this I would have gone playoff hard in these games."
As of now, none of them have actually seen what a Vegas tournament looks like so it sounds cool and all but I suspect those views will change once they see the 4 teams and then the 2 Finalists competing in Vegas.
This is a good point. And they wont just *see* them. They'll hear about it for the next 10 months.
They will....because Silver and the NBA will be reminding us all at every opportunity. They already began the marketing with Michael Imperioli starring in the promos for the tournament.
True. I was thinking more along the lines of "so many of these players seem to be friends, etc., regardless of team affiliations."
LaVine is officially listed as quetionable. I received info that he's unlikely to play which is the info causing the number get run up.
Sharing more from my contact. LeBron and AD are still officially listed as questionable but will both play tonight.
It's a damn shame this idea didn't come to fruition during Rajon Rondo's prime. There was already National TV Rondo and Playoff Rondo, and Tournament Rondo would have been a great addition to that.
Here's something I have been wondering about. The NBA needs a tiebreaker in order, in most scenarios, to determine who makes it to the next round. But why use margin of victory when you know it's going to be problematic at best? Wouldn't it be less of an issue to have points allowed be the tiebreaker?
Point differential takes into account success at both offense and defense.
The third tiebreaker is points scored. As is the case in most global soccer tournaments (goals scored).
Whatever ills you're imagining exist with point differential, such as making teams play hard for 48 minutes in their 4 group-stage games, would probably exist double with points allowed - for example, teams would play at a much slower pace, by implicit mutual agreement.
All 5 of the Eastern Conference games tonight - which all affect who goes to the knockouts, only Indiana is already through - begin simultaneously, at 7:30pm ET. Scenarios are per my previous post. We need a RedZone channel for this stuff. It's gonna rock.
7:30pm: Milwaukee @ Miami (TNT)
7:30pm: Chicago @ Boston
7:30pm: Toronto @ Brooklyn
7:30pm: Atlanta @ Cleveland
7:30pm: Charlotte @ New York
In the western conference, there are only 3 games tonight. Group A is done playing (Lakers win group, Suns are 2nd at 3-1, +34). Group B has New Orleans (3-1, +33) in the lead right now, but HOU @ DAL (8:30pm ET) will determine if the Rockets (2-1, beat NOP) jump over them. So Houston is effectively playing an elimination game tonight: win and you're in, lose and you're out, nothing else matters. If Houston does win, New Orleans would lose the wildcard tiebreaker by a single point of differential.
Group C has two games playing, and for some reason they will not happen at the same time, the way the Eastern Conference is doing it (and most such competitions do it):
8:00pm: OKC @ MIN: Timberwolves eliminated with a loss. With a win and a GSW win, we have a 3-way tiebreaker at the top; Minnesota is currently at -3 PD, so they very likely need to win by at least 21 to even have a chance to win that tiebreaker. Any less and their elimination with a 3-1 record is a mere footnote.
10:00pm: GSW @ SAC (TNT): Sacramento wins group (and GSW eliminated) with a win. If the Warriors win and Minnesota loses, the Dubs win the group. If the Warriors and Timberwolves both win, it comes down to point differential on a 3-way tie. GSW is currently +5 and SAC is +29, so GSW would need to win by at least 12 to overtake SAC, while not also being overtaken by MIN. The Kings, meanwhile, can likely advance even with a loss, as long as it's by fewer than 12.
Because the OKC/MIN game will be finishing right as GSW/SAC is starting, we'll know what each team has to do in order to advance, at or slightly after tipoff. If Minnesota loses, GSW/SAC becomes a straight-up elimination game, winner moves on.
And it would be so because barring some truly spectacular results, the Group C runner-up will also be eliminated. They would need to finish with better than the Suns' +34 PD, while also not winning their own group on point differential. That's only possible with some very outlier results, like SAC by 7, MIN by 40. So the Suns are very likely to be the western conference wildcard.
7:30pm: Milwaukee @ Miami (TNT)
7:30pm: Chicago @ Boston
7:30pm: Toronto @ Brooklyn
7:30pm: Atlanta @ Cleveland
7:30pm: Charlotte @ New York
In the western conference, there are only 3 games tonight. Group A is done playing (Lakers win group, Suns are 2nd at 3-1, +34). Group B has New Orleans (3-1, +33) in the lead right now, but HOU @ DAL (8:30pm ET) will determine if the Rockets (2-1, beat NOP) jump over them. So Houston is effectively playing an elimination game tonight: win and you're in, lose and you're out, nothing else matters. If Houston does win, New Orleans would lose the wildcard tiebreaker by a single point of differential.
Group C has two games playing, and for some reason they will not happen at the same time, the way the Eastern Conference is doing it (and most such competitions do it):
8:00pm: OKC @ MIN: Timberwolves eliminated with a loss. With a win and a GSW win, we have a 3-way tiebreaker at the top; Minnesota is currently at -3 PD, so they very likely need to win by at least 21 to even have a chance to win that tiebreaker. Any less and their elimination with a 3-1 record is a mere footnote.
10:00pm: GSW @ SAC (TNT): Sacramento wins group (and GSW eliminated) with a win. If the Warriors win and Minnesota loses, the Dubs win the group. If the Warriors and Timberwolves both win, it comes down to point differential on a 3-way tie. GSW is currently +5 and SAC is +29, so GSW would need to win by at least 12 to overtake SAC, while not also being overtaken by MIN. The Kings, meanwhile, can likely advance even with a loss, as long as it's by fewer than 12.
Because the OKC/MIN game will be finishing right as GSW/SAC is starting, we'll know what each team has to do in order to advance, at or slightly after tipoff. If Minnesota loses, GSW/SAC becomes a straight-up elimination game, winner moves on.
And it would be so because barring some truly spectacular results, the Group C runner-up will also be eliminated. They would need to finish with better than the Suns' +34 PD, while also not winning their own group on point differential. That's only possible with some very outlier results, like SAC by 7, MIN by 40. So the Suns are very likely to be the western conference wildcard.
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Here's a much-wordier version of my scenarios preview above, but it's from ESPN.
Jimmy Butler is out vs the Bucks. This is good for Boston (and all Heat haters).
edit: LaMelo Ball is out for several weeks with an ankle sprain. This is bad for Boston, as it makes it even less likely for the Hornets to beat the Knicks in MSG.
Jimmy Butler is out vs the Bucks. This is good for Boston (and all Heat haters).
edit: LaMelo Ball is out for several weeks with an ankle sprain. This is bad for Boston, as it makes it even less likely for the Hornets to beat the Knicks in MSG.
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Masslive with a couple quotes from C's re the tournament:
Kornet: I guess there’s some awareness to it,” Kornet said. “But we’re also trying to build our habits and trying to just win every game we play in and play as well as we can. I don’t know, it’s kind of a strange situation, especially in the NBA. It’s not been a thing that’s really been a thought at all for years. ... I know we’re just trying to compete and get ready for Chicago, first and foremost go and get the win. Then we’ll see how it goes from there just in terms of building our habits.”
And Mazzulla with a similar message: Honestly, it’s not that it’s not important, but I haven’t put much thought into it,” Mazzulla said. “I think whether it’s an in-season, preseason or postseason — go back to the Orlando game, if we’re not going to rebound the basketball on both ends of the floor and we’re going to turn it over, it doesn’t matter what game it is, we’re not going to win. So just trying the best we can to stick to the process of winning.
Personally I could care less about this tournament, seems to me like something lesser tier teams should priortize and hang their hats on. Great experience for up and comers like Orlando. I hope the C's don't qualify, and can just focus on habits as Kornet puts it.
Kornet: I guess there’s some awareness to it,” Kornet said. “But we’re also trying to build our habits and trying to just win every game we play in and play as well as we can. I don’t know, it’s kind of a strange situation, especially in the NBA. It’s not been a thing that’s really been a thought at all for years. ... I know we’re just trying to compete and get ready for Chicago, first and foremost go and get the win. Then we’ll see how it goes from there just in terms of building our habits.”
And Mazzulla with a similar message: Honestly, it’s not that it’s not important, but I haven’t put much thought into it,” Mazzulla said. “I think whether it’s an in-season, preseason or postseason — go back to the Orlando game, if we’re not going to rebound the basketball on both ends of the floor and we’re going to turn it over, it doesn’t matter what game it is, we’re not going to win. So just trying the best we can to stick to the process of winning.
Personally I could care less about this tournament, seems to me like something lesser tier teams should priortize and hang their hats on. Great experience for up and comers like Orlando. I hope the C's don't qualify, and can just focus on habits as Kornet puts it.
I'm generally a fan of the tournament so far, but man you shouldn't need a PhD to figure it out. Maybe they need to add another game or two to spread teams out a bit more going into the down selection.
Maybe 78 more games in the group stage, followed by several (4?) knockout round series?
I feel like all the time I spent writing a bunch of words to assess the scenarios has been validated. Thank God I put the work in.
No but seriously this was fun. Especially since the other results tonight made the wildcard just plain out of reach.
Milwaukee vs Miami is now an elimination game, Cleveland the Knicks appear to be in position for the wildcard. 1 point game down the stretch.
Edit: fixed, per the below
Edit: fixed, per the below
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No? Cavs are at +29 and Bucks won their first 3 by 39. So realistically Milwaukee would have to get blown out in overtime to not advance
The Knicks finished at +42. We regret the error, but conclusion was right I think.
If Miami beat Milwaukee it would have been a 3 way tie at 3-1 with Miami being eliminated on point differential, Knicks winning the group and Milwaukee taking the wild card
Irrelevant now, but Knicks and Bucks are same conference. If Milwaukee had lost, they’d be tied for 1st with New York and Miami. Knicks would have won in point differential and Milwaukee would advance as wild card.
edit: jinx
Adam Silver, winner of the in-season tournament. This is already wildly fun and we haven’t even gotten to the Vegas part on a random December weekend.
Yes. Pacers at home.
Warriors can knock the Kings out if they beat them tonight; that's really turning into a fun rivalry. Gotta think that's a slugfest.
Fuck I'm just all over the place tonight. Hat tip to you sir, quite right you are.
So Celtics were always going to be the 3rd seed then, unless we had another ~15 points of differential go our way. I'll happily accept a trip to Indy.
Milwaukee and Indiana were both 4-0, so I think they're always the top two seed.