I would be on board with this but I doubt it will happen. Can't see us committing to three pitchers in the same off-season. My gut tells me we will lose out on Yamamoto but might trade for Burnes. I think Montgomery's price will go beyond the team's comfort zone, but I could see them offering him around 6/$130-$150M.
Moves I'd Make
- Thread starter SouthernBoSox
- Start date
Yeah, fair points. I was just trying to match up the one deal I could think of (Castillo) to something roughly equal with what the Sox have. (For what it's worth, I'd move Anthony or Teel in a deal for Valdez instead of Mayer).
Honestly, I've been trying to steer clear of trade proposals where the Red Sox move "just" hitting prospects and get back MLB starting pitching. I really don't think that is likely to happen because all the deals with MLB pitching going out seem to require the type of pitching prospects going back that the Red Sox just don't have. I think it's going to be very difficult for them to trade for MLB starting pitching unless they're willing to include Casas, and the list of players I'd move Casas for is very short.
The Castillo deal is the best comp I can come up with, so it's a small sample from a small sample, which is always tough.
I do think Breslow is in a tough spot right now
The current rotation are Bello and all error bars. The rotation at AAA and AA have two prospects combined (Fitts and Gonzalez). Maybe Fitts is valuable enough to add in to some manner of Anthony, Teel and Mayer to get someone of consequence back, but when you're not talking about guys that are inside most top 100 lists, it's tough to have any semblance of reasonable gauge as to how they might be valued. (For all I know some team could adore Perales the way @JM3 does or they could think he's literally not worth acquiring, I have no idea).
They want Yamamoto, but I don't think he wants them.
They're likely going to have to either overpay to some degree in free agency and hope to hit or accept sucking for the next 3 years while hoping Breslow makes more "Cade Hortons" and less "Caleb Killian", "Hayden Wesneski" and "Keegan Thompson" from the current prospects and young pitchers.
I doubt either is "the plan" but they're probably the two more realistic outcomes.
Ultimately, I think they'll decide that "over paying" for a couple of FA starters and hoping for the best is the lesser of two evils than going into each season with an almost certainty of missing the playoffs as they did in 2022 and 2023, but really we have no data one way or the other at this point in time.
Honestly, I've been trying to steer clear of trade proposals where the Red Sox move "just" hitting prospects and get back MLB starting pitching. I really don't think that is likely to happen because all the deals with MLB pitching going out seem to require the type of pitching prospects going back that the Red Sox just don't have. I think it's going to be very difficult for them to trade for MLB starting pitching unless they're willing to include Casas, and the list of players I'd move Casas for is very short.
The Castillo deal is the best comp I can come up with, so it's a small sample from a small sample, which is always tough.
I do think Breslow is in a tough spot right now
The current rotation are Bello and all error bars. The rotation at AAA and AA have two prospects combined (Fitts and Gonzalez). Maybe Fitts is valuable enough to add in to some manner of Anthony, Teel and Mayer to get someone of consequence back, but when you're not talking about guys that are inside most top 100 lists, it's tough to have any semblance of reasonable gauge as to how they might be valued. (For all I know some team could adore Perales the way @JM3 does or they could think he's literally not worth acquiring, I have no idea).
They want Yamamoto, but I don't think he wants them.
They're likely going to have to either overpay to some degree in free agency and hope to hit or accept sucking for the next 3 years while hoping Breslow makes more "Cade Hortons" and less "Caleb Killian", "Hayden Wesneski" and "Keegan Thompson" from the current prospects and young pitchers.
I doubt either is "the plan" but they're probably the two more realistic outcomes.
Ultimately, I think they'll decide that "over paying" for a couple of FA starters and hoping for the best is the lesser of two evils than going into each season with an almost certainty of missing the playoffs as they did in 2022 and 2023, but really we have no data one way or the other at this point in time.
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The problem is that if they don’t land YY, Snell, or a Montgomery….there aren’t a ton of great options left. Everything else kind of looks like what they already have. They are getting pretty close to a redux of the past few years; hopefully they can get a Wacha type performance from someone.
It’s too bad they didnt get a deal done with Eovaldi and Lugo (or Eflin), like they tried last year- they’d be in a much better spot (and Chaim would be here too).
It’s too bad they didnt get a deal done with Eovaldi and Lugo (or Eflin), like they tried last year- they’d be in a much better spot (and Chaim would be here too).
I have to believe they'll over-pay for Snell or Montgomery.
I really don't think they can stomach being 5th place in Boston, but that's kind of where they're headed if they follow the same route they've taken in 2022 and 2023. Also, to be clear, I'm not saying to make moves just to make moves (that would be something like the Hanley Ramirez signing). But when they have a clear and absolute baseball need in the rotation AND it would at least get them back in the discussion of being ahead of the Bruins, they'll realize it makes sense on too many levels.
*Or, of course, I'm completely wrong about FSG and those who whine that they truly don't care about the success of the Red Sox anymore beyond selling a bunch of tickets to out of towners in May, June, July and August are completely right. But I refuse to believe that.*
I'm mixed on Burnes with everything hinging on a pre trade extention deal worked out. If the Sox where in a GFIN position absolutely, but I can't even begin to see that for the coming season. I'm also mixed on Garver. I've long been a proponent of using your DH slot as a way to rotate players and give "partial days off" which can also in effect lengthen the bench a bit. If the is an absolute masher available, by all means go after him. As the roster currently stands, I wonder if Garver would be the best use for the slot. RHH backup at 1st is definitely a plus, but as a presumed backup to Wong he's redundant in that both are RH.
Yes- I should have said Burnes with an extension, as the price would likely be outrageous for a one year rental. That is one of the reasons I'm also interested in Framber Valdez, since he has two more years of arbitration and might be more interested in an extension. As for Garver, I see him as back-up 1B, 3rd catcher, and in the DH rotation but there are a lot of options for how to fill that role.
The point is that Mayer likely will turn in a great season if he’s healed. Maybe Teal struggles. Bleis gets back to being “better than Mayer”. An injury shouldn’t derail the overall outlook on a player (unless it’s a career ending type obviously). That’s why Bleis still lingered in the top 5 at Sox Prospects who don’t rush at the shiny new thing and forget about the old shiny new thing when a little tarnish shows up. I wouldn’t be dealing Mayer for one year of anyone (and yes literally people have suggested this…) unless they are guaranteed an extension
FWIW, I totally agree with that. I haven't seen anyone in this thread say otherwise, but I'm sure people have in other threads, which could be what you meant.
Just for fun (and not saying that the other teams would do this, nor taking even a minute to consider what they have in their system), the list of even somewhat rumored as being listened on starting pitchers I'd trade Mayer, Anthony or Teel for based on their current contractual status are as follows:
Valdez (any of them)
Gilbert (any of them)
Luzardo (Mayer; Teel if they absolutely insisted, not Anthony)
Cease (Mayer, prob not Teel, not Anthony.)
*For both Luzardo and Cease, I'd try like you wouldn't believe to let them have their pick of anything in any number from the farm, including Duran, Rafaela or Abreu, but I don't think there is any prospect package that we could offer them without one of those top 3 that they'd ultimately accept.
Off the top of my head, that's it. So I'm in no way "trying to give away" Mayer.
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Like I said in my original post I wouldn’t love to give up any of those top 3 but if an extension was guaranteed with Burnes I would 100% trade Mayer. Maybe you are directing your comments more towards other on the forum suggesting giving him up for a rental, which I find it hard to believe anyone would agree with.
I really like Burnes but giving up Mayer to then give him a market rate deal seems less than ideal; especially when the 2024 Sox seem unlikely to be legit contenders. I think you have to either go for one of the FA’s, or if that fails, keep your powder dry.
With Burnes and another middle arm this team does become a legit contender in 2024 though. The only way they won’t be contenders is if they choose not to be, because they have the core talent, enough tradeable prospects, and money.
Is the core talent that impressive? They had five 2 win players last year, one of whom was traded. Hell, they only have ten 1 win players under contract. Can expect some improvement with Story, development from Casas…but let’s say this team adds Burnes, Drury, and say, Sean Manea or Ryu or whatever.
What AL East team would they be better than? If everything goes right, I could see that team contenting but would be really tough to give up Mayer and then pay Burnes as if he were a free agent.
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Okay so let’s say they get Burnes and sign a guy like Giolito, which I would say is realistic. That’s a rotation of Burnes, Bello, Sale, Giolito, and probably Crawford, who I am a big fan off. That’s a significant improvement over last year, assuming Sale can make about 20 starts, which at this point might be the best we can expect. The lineup was already really solid last year even with major injury to Duvall and others missing time. Yoshida as full time DH can allow him onto play the entire year and not run out of gas towards the end like he did last year, Casas should avoid the April and May slump, full year of Trevor Story playing above average defense at SS, along with adding another right handed bat (hopefully JD or Turner imo) and this sounds like a team that could make a run. Maybe I am just more of an optimist though.
Offensively, I think it's pretty close. They should feel good about the next 3 to 4 years of:
Casas (obviously)
Devers (obviously, with the bat)
Duran (his year last year looked a lot like his high minors stat lines)
Story (at least in a Dansby Swanson kind of way)
Yoshida (with a year of acclimation under his belt)
Connor Wong (offense and defense, I think assuming he's going to be a 2.0ish WAR catcher is pretty fair, there may even be some more offensive upside based on his high minors numbers)
Rafaela (kind of like JBJr - who was pretty valuable for his cost controlled years, tons of it on the defensive side, obviously)
I believe in Abreu as he's hit everywhere he's been, and he hasn't been all domination against RHP and worthless against LHP, he's been pretty decent against same side. I don't know if he can handle RF at Fenway (genuinely, I have no idea) but if he can, you can feel pretty good about that, and then it's 8 of 9 spots.
The pitching for the next 3 - 4 years (based on what we have right now) is an affront to baseball and possibly humanity.
Everyone should feel good about Bello as an SP2 (or better).
Between Crawford and Houck I think ONE of them can be a useful back of the rotation starter and the other a decent bull pen weapon.
So yeah, if they can add two front line starting pitchers, they should be really good - but that isn't likely.
In a hypothetical situation of adding Burnes (and a 7yr/$210m extension) and Jordan Montgomery (7/$175m) I think they'd be really good.
Realistically, I'm hoping for ONE of Montgomery (my choice) or Snell (fine, if that's the route they take) and someone else in the SP3/SP4 vein with upside (Giolito, Imanaga, Stroman, some trade I'm not thinking of). But who knows if they're even going to get those at this point.
To be quite honest I'm not sure WTF half y'all are thinking. Manea, Ryu and whatever? Are people seriously suggesting that? If not, why even go there when the more desirable free agents are still in fact free agents.
Again, I’m thinking the plan is to sign / acquire one top of the rotation starter (Montgomery, Yamamoto, Snell, Burnes), and then one other guy (like a Lugo; so someone like Manaea, Ryu, Paxton). If they can acquire someone more cost controlled via trade (say Cease, Gilbert, Kirby) than they could have two top of the rotation guys. But signing / acquiring two front end starters at market FA deals / extensions (so Montgomery-Burnes) seems unlikely to me. But who knows WTF I’m thinking, right?
I guess I'll weigh in on what I think I would do...
Free Agent Signings
SP Mike Clevinger (1 year, 16 million)
SP James Paxton (1 year, 10 million)
RP Josh Hader (4 years, 72 million)
RP David Robertson (1 year, 8 million)
OF Harrison Bader (2 years, 18 million)
Trades
Red Sox Get: IF/OF Jon Berti, LHP Dax Fulton
Marlins Get: RHP Nick Pivetta, 1B/LF Blaze Jordan, RHP Angel Bastardo
Red Sox Get: IF Luis Rengifo
Angels Get: IF Nick Yorke, OF Allan Castro, RHP Luis Guererro
Red Sox Get: RHP Corbin Burnes
Mariners Get: OF Jaren Duran, RHP Tanner Houck, OF Miguel Bleis, C Nathan Hickey
26 man roster
SP Clevinger
SP Paxton
SP Bello
SP Sale
SP Burnes
RP Josh Hader
RP Kenley Jansen
RP Chris Martin
RP Garret Whitlock
RP Kutter Crawford
RP Brennan Bernandino
RP David Robertson
RP John Schreiber
Lineup
C Conor Wong
1B Triston Casas
2B Luis Rengifo
3B Rafael Devers
SS Trevor Story
LF Tyler O'Neill
CF Harrison Bader
RF Wilyer Abreu
DH Masataka Yoshida
Bench
C Reese McGuire
IF/OF Jon Berti
OF Rob Refsnyder
IF/OF Enmanuel Valdez
Free Agent Signings
SP Mike Clevinger (1 year, 16 million)
SP James Paxton (1 year, 10 million)
RP Josh Hader (4 years, 72 million)
RP David Robertson (1 year, 8 million)
OF Harrison Bader (2 years, 18 million)
Trades
Red Sox Get: IF/OF Jon Berti, LHP Dax Fulton
Marlins Get: RHP Nick Pivetta, 1B/LF Blaze Jordan, RHP Angel Bastardo
Red Sox Get: IF Luis Rengifo
Angels Get: IF Nick Yorke, OF Allan Castro, RHP Luis Guererro
Red Sox Get: RHP Corbin Burnes
Mariners Get: OF Jaren Duran, RHP Tanner Houck, OF Miguel Bleis, C Nathan Hickey
26 man roster
SP Clevinger
SP Paxton
SP Bello
SP Sale
SP Burnes
RP Josh Hader
RP Kenley Jansen
RP Chris Martin
RP Garret Whitlock
RP Kutter Crawford
RP Brennan Bernandino
RP David Robertson
RP John Schreiber
Lineup
C Conor Wong
1B Triston Casas
2B Luis Rengifo
3B Rafael Devers
SS Trevor Story
LF Tyler O'Neill
CF Harrison Bader
RF Wilyer Abreu
DH Masataka Yoshida
Bench
C Reese McGuire
IF/OF Jon Berti
OF Rob Refsnyder
IF/OF Enmanuel Valdez
I like most of these. Not huge on Paxton because of injuries and durability, but on that deal I would be okay. Only one I disagree with is Hader, assuming we keep Kenley. Kenley has proven to be quite terrible in non save situations, so unless you could move him I don’t think you want both of them on the roster, especially with the money they’re making. Hader is amazing though. Also I think we’re probably better off playing Rafaela if Bader is the other option.
I would pay Snell 5 at 135 or Montgomery instead of Kershaw. Between he And Sale we would have 50 million on the IL as often as not. We still need a rh bopper.
I would add that they lost both Duvall and Turner, and that's the loss of a lot of RHH power. They need to replace that in this lefty heavy lineup. Maybe they can do that at second base, I dunno ...It's a strong need.
Sign Yamamoto to 13/$350M
Re-sign Justin Turner 1/$11M
Sign Michael Taylor 2/$14M
Trade Mayer, Bleis, Perales, Hickey for Logan Gilbert
Trade Rafaela, Houck, Fitts, Yorke for Ha-Seong Kim
C - Wong
1B - Casas
2B - Kim
3B - Devers
SS - Story
RF - Abreu / O'Neill
CF - Duran / Taylor
LF - Yoshida / O'Neill
DH - Turner / Yoshida
SP - Yamamoto
SP - Gilbert
SP - Sale
SP - Bello
SP - Kutter
CL - Kenley
RP - Martin
RP - Schreiber
RP - Whitlock
RP - Pivetta
RP - [insert Breslow projects]
Outfield might be sketchy, but infield defense is greatly improved. Turner, Kim, O'Neill, Story and Taylor add just enough RHH pop. With Yamamoto and Gilbert the rotation matches up with anyone in baseball and that trickles down to the 'pen.
You lose a ton of prospect depth but the three major additions (Yamamoto, Gilbert, Kim) are age 26, 26, and 28 so who cares. The other additions are all short years.
EDIT: is Kim a free agent after next season? Baseball Reference says he’s under control for 3 years but I’m seeing elsewhere he’s a rental. If so I guess that changes a bit.
Re-sign Justin Turner 1/$11M
Sign Michael Taylor 2/$14M
Trade Mayer, Bleis, Perales, Hickey for Logan Gilbert
Trade Rafaela, Houck, Fitts, Yorke for Ha-Seong Kim
C - Wong
1B - Casas
2B - Kim
3B - Devers
SS - Story
RF - Abreu / O'Neill
CF - Duran / Taylor
LF - Yoshida / O'Neill
DH - Turner / Yoshida
SP - Yamamoto
SP - Gilbert
SP - Sale
SP - Bello
SP - Kutter
CL - Kenley
RP - Martin
RP - Schreiber
RP - Whitlock
RP - Pivetta
RP - [insert Breslow projects]
Outfield might be sketchy, but infield defense is greatly improved. Turner, Kim, O'Neill, Story and Taylor add just enough RHH pop. With Yamamoto and Gilbert the rotation matches up with anyone in baseball and that trickles down to the 'pen.
You lose a ton of prospect depth but the three major additions (Yamamoto, Gilbert, Kim) are age 26, 26, and 28 so who cares. The other additions are all short years.
EDIT: is Kim a free agent after next season? Baseball Reference says he’s under control for 3 years but I’m seeing elsewhere he’s a rental. If so I guess that changes a bit.
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I’m just catching up on this thread, so apologies if this has been discussed.
I’m more bullish on Duran than it seems a lot of people are. He had significant improvements in his launch angle, hard hit %, and all expected stats last year, in addition to his obvious career best year in normal statistics. I think he’s a major league hitter, not necessarily a great one like last year (121 OPS+), but imo better than JBJ (exclusively as a hitter)
Not sure how to interpret the Brewers trading Adrian Houser to the Mets. Milwaukee needs starting pitchers, and that move was just a salary dump (and a way to clear some space in the outfield).
Are they tearing it down or clearing space/money for a bigger move?
Are they tearing it down or clearing space/money for a bigger move?
Do people on here know that Mike Clevinger has been accused of some pretty awful stuff? I'm saying that with no snark; I personally was incredulous that the Sox couldn't find some deal to acquire him at the deadline last year when the team was openly begging for pitching help and Chi was having a firesale. Then @JM3 pointed out to me the allegations against him that I had no idea about. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mike-clevinger-domestic-violence-allegations-mlb-white-sox/d0tiaa24kcehdxe33uaghuxo
I'm not trying to be the morality police, and if someone thinks he was either unjustly accused or what not, that's all well and good, I'm just genuinely unsure if people know about the issues.
As far as the "morality" aspect goes: I don't want any of those guys on the Red Sox. Full stop.
But, I'll say this, if you're going to sign the aholes anyway (Dermody) or consider signing them (German) then you might as well choose to be morally bankrupt on the guy with the actual talent (Bauer). So don't choose to be morally bankrupt. If you do, make it for an awful human being that is good at the job you need filled (ie Bauer) and not on an awful whom being who sucks at it (ie Dermody) or isn't any better than what you've got (German).
The bigger question for me would be - can he further improve defensively in CF. He improved pretty dramatically (at least via FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF). If he can continue to improve there, he'd be very valuable. If he cannot (or regresses) he's a 4th OF at best. But I do think the defense is the larger question for me than the offense.
Obviously you can't call ANYONE a major league hitter until they do it in the major leagues (the baseball world is full of Jeremy Hermida's and Bobby Dalbec's), but Duran's numbers last year weren't that far off from a reasonable projection based on his AAA stats.
The biggest question for him, at least in my opinion, are the mental health issues and how that will (or will not) cut into his playing time. On that front, I have no idea. I think that's a very reasonable concern and hope he is able to get the help he needs for a serious medical issue, above and beyond what it means for his career.
I'm not trying to be the morality police, and if someone thinks he was either unjustly accused or what not, that's all well and good, I'm just genuinely unsure if people know about the issues.
As far as the "morality" aspect goes: I don't want any of those guys on the Red Sox. Full stop.
But, I'll say this, if you're going to sign the aholes anyway (Dermody) or consider signing them (German) then you might as well choose to be morally bankrupt on the guy with the actual talent (Bauer). So don't choose to be morally bankrupt. If you do, make it for an awful human being that is good at the job you need filled (ie Bauer) and not on an awful whom being who sucks at it (ie Dermody) or isn't any better than what you've got (German).
Pretty much where I am too, but at a certain level that is only offensively. His numbers last year were not that far off from what one might expect from his high minors numbers. His AA numbers weren't good, but it was half a season of sample size (87 wRC+ in 352PA), in AAA with 641PA he put up a wRC+ of ~125. I don't think its reasonable to expect him to replicate the ~120 wRC+ he put up last year as a baseline, but based on his AAA numbers and what he did last year AND the fact that he was able to make adjustments to adjustments made to him (monthly splits https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=duranja01&year=2023&t=b) to assume he can be around a ~105 wRC+ player which is plenty valuable during his cost controlled years.
The bigger question for me would be - can he further improve defensively in CF. He improved pretty dramatically (at least via FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF). If he can continue to improve there, he'd be very valuable. If he cannot (or regresses) he's a 4th OF at best. But I do think the defense is the larger question for me than the offense.
Obviously you can't call ANYONE a major league hitter until they do it in the major leagues (the baseball world is full of Jeremy Hermida's and Bobby Dalbec's), but Duran's numbers last year weren't that far off from a reasonable projection based on his AAA stats.
The biggest question for him, at least in my opinion, are the mental health issues and how that will (or will not) cut into his playing time. On that front, I have no idea. I think that's a very reasonable concern and hope he is able to get the help he needs for a serious medical issue, above and beyond what it means for his career.
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That is quite the impressive overpay for 1 year of Ha-Seong Kim.
The Gilbert trade is one that matches up in value but there's been no indication that he's actually available.
They have other second base options and they need to start filling out the roster with pre arb production.
If they can get a good pre arb reliever and outfielder they’d do it.
Yeah that was assuming Kim was under control for 2 or 3 seasons. For 1 year, I'd still part with Houck and a non-top 10 prospect.
I would even take on the Cronenworth contract so we wouldn’t have to give up the quality of prospects just Kim would take. He brings positional flexibility and is looking to have a bounce back year.
Yeah, I probably would too, depending on the prospect. And it would make some sense from SD's perspective since they still need 2 more starters. They also need bullpen help, so maybe one of the MLB guys from the pen as a 2nd piece? I could see that working for the Padres.
I wouldn't want to take Cronenworth's contract, though. He's going to be 30 this year and his contract doesn't run out until 2030. There could be a lot of bad years left on that deal. He also adds another lefty to the lineup. His positional versatility is nice, but the Sox would have Kim and Casas at the two positions he's played most, so I don't see the fit. The bat isn't good enough for 1B or DH, either.
I don’t think the contract is really all that bad, as it’s only $11m a year. He plays solid defense at multiple positions, would be a perfect platoon guy or could fill (god forbid) for the oft-injured Story if/when he misses games. Plus if it means holding onto Rafaela I think it’s worth it.
I don't think I'd take on the Cronenworth deal for one year of Kim. Cronenworth is a pretty bad defensive shortstop and his bat isn't good enough that you'd want to play him at 1b (and have Casas DH this early in his career). At 2b he's a pretty good defensive player, and he's really not making all that much. However for just one season of Kim, I don't think it's worth it.
I do find myself wondering if Musgrove would accept a trade back east. He is from just outside of San Diego, and signed a below market extension to stay there - so my guess is no. However, that was at a time when they were looking like a team that was going to consistently be in the playoff hunt and contending for the NLCS on a regular basis, and things have clearly changed. So I think it's at least worth inquiring about with Preller.
My guess is that he still would prefer to be close to home based on all the comments from the extension, HOWEVER, if he were open to a trade, that is where I'd be willing to take on money from them. Really tough to see a match with the Padres and Sox at this point.
*On a separate note, if they'd eat like $75m of the deal to Bogaerts, I'd happily take him back, even at 10 years because then the AAV would be something like $18m a season. He is also a guy that - over the course of the next couple of years - I can see moving either to LF or 2b, and I think the bat will continue to play. Acquiring Bogie is probably not realistic though.*
I do find myself wondering if Musgrove would accept a trade back east. He is from just outside of San Diego, and signed a below market extension to stay there - so my guess is no. However, that was at a time when they were looking like a team that was going to consistently be in the playoff hunt and contending for the NLCS on a regular basis, and things have clearly changed. So I think it's at least worth inquiring about with Preller.
My guess is that he still would prefer to be close to home based on all the comments from the extension, HOWEVER, if he were open to a trade, that is where I'd be willing to take on money from them. Really tough to see a match with the Padres and Sox at this point.
*On a separate note, if they'd eat like $75m of the deal to Bogaerts, I'd happily take him back, even at 10 years because then the AAV would be something like $18m a season. He is also a guy that - over the course of the next couple of years - I can see moving either to LF or 2b, and I think the bat will continue to play. Acquiring Bogie is probably not realistic though.*
It's incredibly annoying that BBRef doesn't update that players coming over from Japan and Korea are only under control for their contract and not the 6 years typical. I had thought he was under control up until the 2027 season when thinking about him last off season - and if that were the case, absolutely take on Cronenworth. But for one year, not so much.
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Yeah you’re probably right I’m not necessarily saying I love Cronenworth as a player I just don’t like the idea of giving up big prospects for rentals unless an extension is in place. I was thinking there could be a platoon somehow where Cron could DH and Yoshida could play LF vs RHP with O’Neill on the bench just because he struggled so much against righties last year, while against lefties you’d move Yoshida back to DH and have TON play LF and bench Cron. Probably too LH heavy though against RH starters. You could also have Casas, Story or Kim even DH and Cronenworth could field instead of giving those guys full days off.
Here me out
Montgomery 7/175
Imanaga 5/100
Burnes (Houck/Duran/Gonzales/Dalbec) 7/240 ext
Bello
Sale
Espino/Brown/Wicks (Yorke/Winkowski/Walter/PaulinoRefsnyder)
Jansen
Martin
Whitlock
Crawford
Pivetta
Mata
Bernardino
Rule 5 guy
Bench
McGuire (or better)
Turner 400-450ABs
Duval 400ABs
Infielder of choice
Devers
Casas
Story
Drury
Abreu
M. Taylor
O’Neil
Wong
Yoshida
Approx Tax Level All In: Approx 260
2025 Below Tax
Montgomery 7/175
Imanaga 5/100
Burnes (Houck/Duran/Gonzales/Dalbec) 7/240 ext
Bello
Sale
Espino/Brown/Wicks (Yorke/Winkowski/Walter/PaulinoRefsnyder)
Jansen
Martin
Whitlock
Crawford
Pivetta
Mata
Bernardino
Rule 5 guy
Bench
McGuire (or better)
Turner 400-450ABs
Duval 400ABs
Infielder of choice
Devers
Casas
Story
Drury
Abreu
M. Taylor
O’Neil
Wong
Yoshida
Approx Tax Level All In: Approx 260
2025 Below Tax
I guess it depends on your definition of big prospects, but for 1 year of Kim, it wouldn't cost any of the Sox big name guys (Anthony, Mayer, Teel). Maybe someone like Bleis, but the Padres have been giving off vibes that they want cheap, near-MLB talent to stay competitive now. That leaves guys like Houck, Rafaela, etc who could potentially be a match in a Kim deal. I doubt we see something like that until the rotation gets worked out. If they strike out on the big names, I don't think they'd trade one of those guys for a year of Kim, but if they are able to land a couple big arms, they could see it as a risk worth taking to shore up 2B.
By big prospects I mean borderline top 100, which I believe would include Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Rafaela, and Bleis, maybe even Yorke. I would say that Houck straight up is a fair deal for a defense first second baseman, although his hitting did improve last season, on a rental. Probably wouldn’t look to give up more than that.
So, Yamamoto went to LA for a giant pile of money. Too bad. (Although a Dodgers/Braves playoff series, if it comes to pass, could be absolutely amazing.)
What are my next moves, if I'm Breslow? I'm not sure, but here's a possibility.
1) Sign Shota Imanaga for 5/$100m. I'm antsy about the HR rate, but... what can you do? The stuff looks nasty and the K rates are impressive.
2) Trade Tanner Houck, Enmanuel Valdez, Mikey Romero, and Chase Meidroth to Oakland for IF Zach Gelof, IF Jordan Diaz, and a Comp Balance B pick.
3) Trade Nick Yorke, Jarren Duran, and Oakland's Comp Balance B pick to Chicago for Dylan Cease (Arb2) — somebody needs to throw some innings on this staff — Gregory Santos (pre-arb) and Eloy Jimenez (signed through 24 with team options for 25 and 26).
4) Trade Kutter Crawford, Bryan Mata, and Garrett Whitlock to Seattle for SP Bryan Woo.
This leaves us the following roster:
Rotation
Cease R
Sale L
Bello R
Imanaga L
Woo R
Bullpen
CL Jansen R
SU Martin R
Multi-inning Winckowski R
Multi-inning Pivetta R
Single-inning Santos R
Single-inning Bernardino L
Single-inning Schreiber R
Single-inning Slaten R
Lineup
SS Story R
3B Devers L
LF Yoshida L
DH Jimenez R
1B Casas L
2B Gelof R
RF O'Neill R
C Wong R
CF Rafaela R
Bench
IF Reyes R
OF Abreu L
OF Refsnyder R
C McGuire L
What are my next moves, if I'm Breslow? I'm not sure, but here's a possibility.
1) Sign Shota Imanaga for 5/$100m. I'm antsy about the HR rate, but... what can you do? The stuff looks nasty and the K rates are impressive.
2) Trade Tanner Houck, Enmanuel Valdez, Mikey Romero, and Chase Meidroth to Oakland for IF Zach Gelof, IF Jordan Diaz, and a Comp Balance B pick.
3) Trade Nick Yorke, Jarren Duran, and Oakland's Comp Balance B pick to Chicago for Dylan Cease (Arb2) — somebody needs to throw some innings on this staff — Gregory Santos (pre-arb) and Eloy Jimenez (signed through 24 with team options for 25 and 26).
4) Trade Kutter Crawford, Bryan Mata, and Garrett Whitlock to Seattle for SP Bryan Woo.
This leaves us the following roster:
Rotation
Cease R
Sale L
Bello R
Imanaga L
Woo R
Bullpen
CL Jansen R
SU Martin R
Multi-inning Winckowski R
Multi-inning Pivetta R
Single-inning Santos R
Single-inning Bernardino L
Single-inning Schreiber R
Single-inning Slaten R
Lineup
SS Story R
3B Devers L
LF Yoshida L
DH Jimenez R
1B Casas L
2B Gelof R
RF O'Neill R
C Wong R
CF Rafaela R
Bench
IF Reyes R
OF Abreu L
OF Refsnyder R
C McGuire L
Is there a world where this works?
BOS gets Tarik Skubal, Javier Baez
DET gets Ceddanne Rafaela, Kenley Jansen
The Sox get an arb controlled ace and an elite defensive 2B. Skubal is under contract through 2026. Baez has 4/$98M left on his.
The Tigers get a guy who can replace Baez at short with no defensive cost, or can plug in with Greene and Meadows in that big outfield. Jansen, who knows, but they need a closer and he helps make Baez’s money work, and they can flip him if they’re not in it by August. The Tigers could use the $ to sign another starter, but they have Flaherty, Maeda, Manning, Olson, Mize, Gipson-Long and Faedo for next year’s rotation, and Jobe, Madden, and Flores graduating to the majors soon.
Skubal is probably only good for 140 IP next year, his first full year back from injury, but he’s as strong a bet going forward as there is. (We can try to extend him, but he’s a Boras client.)
By the numbers, Baez is very much not my kind of player — or hitter, anyway — but he could help. He’d immediately become our second baseman, forming the best defensive middle infield tandem in MLB alongside Story. He also gets a fresh start in a hitter’s park, and with Alex Cora, who he’s close with. He’s also a guy who loves the spotlight, so maybe getting out of Detroit will help.
For as disastrous a contract as Baez’s is, his struggles have mostly been at home. He hasn’t been that bad away from Comerica, putting up a 94 wRC+ on the road. Against lefties, he’s an asset. Maybe he forms a complicated timeshare with Valdez.
Would I do it? I don’t know. If you get absolutely nothing from Baez, it’s essentially buying, for Rafaela and $85M or so, the right to pay Skubal for three seasons (his arb salary is like 3/$30). But it likely profoundly improves the defense, and there’s a chance you get restore an older version of Baez.
BOS gets Tarik Skubal, Javier Baez
DET gets Ceddanne Rafaela, Kenley Jansen
The Sox get an arb controlled ace and an elite defensive 2B. Skubal is under contract through 2026. Baez has 4/$98M left on his.
The Tigers get a guy who can replace Baez at short with no defensive cost, or can plug in with Greene and Meadows in that big outfield. Jansen, who knows, but they need a closer and he helps make Baez’s money work, and they can flip him if they’re not in it by August. The Tigers could use the $ to sign another starter, but they have Flaherty, Maeda, Manning, Olson, Mize, Gipson-Long and Faedo for next year’s rotation, and Jobe, Madden, and Flores graduating to the majors soon.
Skubal is probably only good for 140 IP next year, his first full year back from injury, but he’s as strong a bet going forward as there is. (We can try to extend him, but he’s a Boras client.)
By the numbers, Baez is very much not my kind of player — or hitter, anyway — but he could help. He’d immediately become our second baseman, forming the best defensive middle infield tandem in MLB alongside Story. He also gets a fresh start in a hitter’s park, and with Alex Cora, who he’s close with. He’s also a guy who loves the spotlight, so maybe getting out of Detroit will help.
For as disastrous a contract as Baez’s is, his struggles have mostly been at home. He hasn’t been that bad away from Comerica, putting up a 94 wRC+ on the road. Against lefties, he’s an asset. Maybe he forms a complicated timeshare with Valdez.
Would I do it? I don’t know. If you get absolutely nothing from Baez, it’s essentially buying, for Rafaela and $85M or so, the right to pay Skubal for three seasons (his arb salary is like 3/$30). But it likely profoundly improves the defense, and there’s a chance you get restore an older version of Baez.
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Not remotely. Skubal was phenomenal in his return last year, his Stuff+ and PLV numbers were through the roof. The Tigers already have Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows to play OF, and just signed mark Danha as well. And their bullpen isnt bad with Lange, Foley and Holton, so Jansen would fill no glaring need. The Baez contract is truly horrific but with so many young players on cheap deals they can afford to eat it unless blown away by an offer they cant refuse, and Rafeal doesnt do it.
Yeah, I don't think there's any way Jansen and Rafaela come close to netting Skubal. To be honest, with where the Tigers are right now, they might be more interested in sending a mid-level prospect along with Baez just to dump his contract. I doubt the Sox would be interested in doing that, though, when there's plenty of more effective players they don't want to throw $25M down the drain for.
This is exactly the type of thing they should be looking for though. How much cash would need to go along with Jansen to make that compelling?
There is a growing sense (at least by me) that even if we take Full Throttle at face value, missing out on the remaining FA pitching means money they can’t spend wisely in traditional signings.
Definitely don’t want a long bad deal, but maybe a short ‘bad’ deal ie yields talent but only burns 1-2years of money inefficiently. Key being that would otherwise not be spent.
I don't think sending any money makes it work. The issue isn't what the Sox should do, it's that there's no way the Tigers even listen to that offer. Baez isn't tying up enough money to give them any reason to move Skubal.
It is the kind of deal the Sox should be looking for, I agree, but I think this one is too far outside the realm of possibility.
I also don’t think the Sox make that deal. Why assume $100M on Baez and give up Rafaela when you could have signed Sonny Gray for $75M? The idea that the Sox are going to take on these awful long term deals comes up every year but doesn’t seem very realistic.
I'm trying to come up with other offers in this vein: Sox absorb a bad short-term deal, trade away a piece that's not likely part of our long-term plans and, in return, net a young player who could contribute in 2025+.
If we take McCann off the Orioles' hands and send Martin to them, what's a reasonable guess about the young player we might be able to pick up?
If we take McCann off the Orioles' hands and send Martin to them, what's a reasonable guess about the young player we might be able to pick up?
