I don't know what exactly it is but the Yamamoto free agency has completely re-sparked my love of the hot stove. I think the Red Sox are in a way better position than most around baseball, there are some really talented cost controlled players at the Major League level, the farm system has some pretty extraordinary positional talent that is at the AA level, and the payroll is in a fantastic position.
My feelings on Yamamoto have become "Yea, of course I want him... but" we are talking about an insane commitment to a player who, while incredibly talented, is a projection. I am beginning to think the path forward, is to improve the core for 2025 while fighting for a playoff spot in 2024 and maintaining payroll flexibility for the 2024 Free Agent class.
I do think they need to thread the needle here, but I think it's very doable.
So with all that said, here are the moves I'd make....
TRADE
Red Sox: Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Bobby Dalbec for (Duran is projected at 1.4 WAR for 2024)
Marlins: Jesus Luzardo and Josh Bell (AAV 5.9 and 16.5 - total AAV of 22.4)
According to MLB trade Rumors, Jesus Luzardo is available for major league hitting. Duran (pre arb) gives them a dynamic left fielder to pair with Chisholm, Rafaela (pre arb) instantly becomes their opening day short stop, Bobby is a nice throw in to give time at first base, and they save 16mm towards other parts of their roster for 2024.
Boston gets 3 arbitration years of a young exciting starting pitcher (STREAMER 3.3 WAR) and can absorb the Josh Bell costs. Immediately off load Bell for anything (maybe just cut him) and absorb the cost.
SIGN
Marcus Stroman - 3 years / 48MM (AAV 16.67mm)
Stroman has experience in the league and posted a fantastic year until injuries derailed his season. He is projected to contribute 2.6 WAR according to Streamer. Due to his age he should come at a lower cost and time commitment than other top free agents. But he would instantly be a top hurler on the staff and bring experience and stability.
SIGN
Michael A Taylor - 2 years / 15MM(AAV 7.5MM)
The Red Sox desperately need defensive stability and Michael Taylor provides that in spades. Streamer projects 1 WAR with the vast majority of that coming from his defense in center. His statcast fielding page is beautiful. An outfield of O'Neil, Taylor, and Abreu is a light years level upgrade defensively to the '23 crew of Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo. Taylor has a nice pull side power profile that should also fare well at Fenway Park.
TRADE
Red Sox: Josh Winkowski and Emnauel Valdez (2024 projected .4 WAR and 1 WAR respectively)
Padres: Ha-Seong Kim (AAV 7mm)
As this article speculates, the Padres and Red Sox could be a nice fit as they shed payroll.
Kim is projected to be a 2.9 WAR player in 2024 and instantly makes the Red Sox double play combo one of the best in baseball.
_______
In conclusion, you suddenly have an all world up the middle defense of Wong, Story, Kim, and Taylor with a nice balance of left handed and right handed power. It is a major league position player net of +1.4 WAR. (Kim + Taylor) - (Duran + Valdez)
You have added two pitchers projected higher than any current starter on staff, one of which is young and controlled for 3 seasons and fits nicely in the current window. It is a major league pitching net of +5.5 WAR. (Luzardo + Stroman) - (Winkowski)
And you have successfully stayed under the 2024 CBT threshold of $237,000,000 with a projected payroll of ($181,337,500 + $53,570,000) = Approximately $235,000,000 AAV
Most importantly, the big three talent prospects of Roman Anthony, Mayer, and Teel remain under your control for the 2025+ window.
My feelings on Yamamoto have become "Yea, of course I want him... but" we are talking about an insane commitment to a player who, while incredibly talented, is a projection. I am beginning to think the path forward, is to improve the core for 2025 while fighting for a playoff spot in 2024 and maintaining payroll flexibility for the 2024 Free Agent class.
I do think they need to thread the needle here, but I think it's very doable.
So with all that said, here are the moves I'd make....
TRADE
Red Sox: Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Bobby Dalbec for (Duran is projected at 1.4 WAR for 2024)
Marlins: Jesus Luzardo and Josh Bell (AAV 5.9 and 16.5 - total AAV of 22.4)
According to MLB trade Rumors, Jesus Luzardo is available for major league hitting. Duran (pre arb) gives them a dynamic left fielder to pair with Chisholm, Rafaela (pre arb) instantly becomes their opening day short stop, Bobby is a nice throw in to give time at first base, and they save 16mm towards other parts of their roster for 2024.
Boston gets 3 arbitration years of a young exciting starting pitcher (STREAMER 3.3 WAR) and can absorb the Josh Bell costs. Immediately off load Bell for anything (maybe just cut him) and absorb the cost.
SIGN
Marcus Stroman - 3 years / 48MM (AAV 16.67mm)
Stroman has experience in the league and posted a fantastic year until injuries derailed his season. He is projected to contribute 2.6 WAR according to Streamer. Due to his age he should come at a lower cost and time commitment than other top free agents. But he would instantly be a top hurler on the staff and bring experience and stability.
SIGN
Michael A Taylor - 2 years / 15MM(AAV 7.5MM)
The Red Sox desperately need defensive stability and Michael Taylor provides that in spades. Streamer projects 1 WAR with the vast majority of that coming from his defense in center. His statcast fielding page is beautiful. An outfield of O'Neil, Taylor, and Abreu is a light years level upgrade defensively to the '23 crew of Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo. Taylor has a nice pull side power profile that should also fare well at Fenway Park.
TRADE
Red Sox: Josh Winkowski and Emnauel Valdez (2024 projected .4 WAR and 1 WAR respectively)
Padres: Ha-Seong Kim (AAV 7mm)
As this article speculates, the Padres and Red Sox could be a nice fit as they shed payroll.
Kim is projected to be a 2.9 WAR player in 2024 and instantly makes the Red Sox double play combo one of the best in baseball.
_______
In conclusion, you suddenly have an all world up the middle defense of Wong, Story, Kim, and Taylor with a nice balance of left handed and right handed power. It is a major league position player net of +1.4 WAR. (Kim + Taylor) - (Duran + Valdez)
You have added two pitchers projected higher than any current starter on staff, one of which is young and controlled for 3 seasons and fits nicely in the current window. It is a major league pitching net of +5.5 WAR. (Luzardo + Stroman) - (Winkowski)
And you have successfully stayed under the 2024 CBT threshold of $237,000,000 with a projected payroll of ($181,337,500 + $53,570,000) = Approximately $235,000,000 AAV
Most importantly, the big three talent prospects of Roman Anthony, Mayer, and Teel remain under your control for the 2025+ window.