Mookie vs Xander: Battle of the B's

Curll · Dec 2, 2014

Getting rid of either for someone not named Kershaw or Trout is a terrible, horrible, Valentine-esque idea.

That's not homerism, either. There's no need to move either, there's no need to choose. They're both young, elite-level talents that play premium positions.

foulkehampshire · Dec 2, 2014

Betts

Superior athleticism gives makes him a dynamic player on the basepaths and gives him a better chance to positively contribute defensively.
Elite contact and patience at the plate gives him a very high floor offensively, even if the power doesn't materialize at the major league level.
Also, I really like good defensive SS's. Not convinced that Xander will become more than passable - and he's only going to slow down as ages.

snowmanny · Dec 2, 2014

Bogaerts may have a better career because of his power. Betts I think wins in overall value because of versatility AND he has an extra year of (cheap) control and there is some chance he could be further extended.

MakMan44 · Dec 2, 2014

Good topic Snod, thanks for starting it.

I think I choose Betts over Xander. I'll concede that Xander has the higher ceiling as a player, because a 30 HR SS is incredibly valuable even if he's not playing the position well.

I personally am a bigger fan of high floor prospects, especially since Mookie's ceiling is still pretty high. I think that Mookie's got the higher floor because I'd argue he's shown some ability to make adjustments in the majors and he's done that far quicker than Xander did.

If you look at Mookie's wRC+ by month there's a clear rise 35, 94, 137, 140 (June-Oct). His BB/K ratio is pretty great as well in the same time span and I wouldn't be surprised if he settled in around his Sept/Oct numbers which were 9.5% and 16.7% respectively. It matches up pretty well with his MiL ratios.

I think he's going to be a great table setter, something they lacked last season. I don't want to trade either one, and again, Xander's ceiling is much harder to replace but I think Mookie is more likely to reach his and that's why I'm going with him.

LahoudOrBillyC · Dec 2, 2014

Mookie seems like a good top-of-the-order guy, while I think Xander (edit: ugh) ends up in the middle of the lineup. Both excellent cornerstone players.

The unusual three-tiered baseball salary structure (pre-arb, arb, free agents) puts an extraordinary premium on pre-arb guys, who allow you to go out into the market and essentially overpay to fill out your roster. Having three minimum wage guys in the starting lineup (counting catcher) is like having gold. I agree with Dave Cameron -- I would not trade either player for Hamels straight up.

As per the thread. Gun to my head I pick Bogaerts. for the power.

PrometheusWakefield · Dec 2, 2014

Betts by a lot, at least until Boegats demonstrates that he can be an above average defensive player somewhere.

Pozo the Clown · Dec 2, 2014

foulkehampshire said:
Betts

Superior athleticism gives makes him a dynamic player on the basepaths and gives him a better chance to positively contribute defensively.

Elite contact and patience at the plate gives him a very high floor offensively, even if the power doesn't materialize at the major league level.

While not a fan of moving either, if I have to choose which one I'd move, it's Xander. In addition to what Foulke posted above, and putting positional redundancy aside (lots of outfield options and Pedey at 2nd), I'd rather hold on to Betts than Bogaerts. To me, the biggest strike against Bogaerts is the fact that he's repped by Boras. Bora's track record indicates that there's essentially a zero percent chance of any contract extensions with Bogaerts (especially if he blossoms). Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic, but I'd like to see Betts still in Boston on a Pedey-like extension (or some reasonable extension) long after Xander has cashed in on the inevitable Boras-Fueled Free Agent Feeding Frenzy.

Dave Cameron did an interesting piece on why the Sox shouldn't deal Betts: http://www.foxsports...ox-trade-092414

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 2, 2014

I pick Betts because of his precocious contact and plate discipline skills. The list of players in baseball history who have had an age-21 season with at least 200 PA, an OPS+ over 120, and a K/BB under 1.5 is a short and distinguished one. Not everybody on it turned out to be an All-Star, but there are no washouts on it either. As foulkehampshire says, the floor here appears to be very high. And the ceiling is something on the order of Tim Raines.

Bogaerts may have an even higher ceiling; that will depend not only on the power developing into the .500-SLG range but also on his ability to stick at SS and play passable defense there through his offensive prime. But I think he has a much lower floor.

MakMan44 · Dec 2, 2014

LahoudOrBillyC said:
Mookie seems like a good top-of-the-order guy, while I think Xavier ends up in the middle of the lineup. Both excellent cornerstone players.

:rex:

PrometheusWakefield said:
Betts by a lot, at least until Boegats demonstrates that he can be an above average defensive player somewhere.

I choose Betts, but why does it matter if Xander is above average or just average? He's here for his offensive ability, and that's my concern, his ability to reach that potential. If he hit 30 HRs, why does it matter if he's only average or slightly below at SS?

JohntheBaptist · Dec 2, 2014

"Boegats" was worse than "Xavier."

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Dec 2, 2014

I pick Mookie. They're both great prospects and it wouldn't be surprising at all for either one to end up with the better career. But, based on the totality of the evidence, I don't see much argument for picking Bogaerts as the one you'd expect to provide more value.

What it comes down to is this:

(1) Mookie has been the more productive hitter at A+, AA, AAA, and the Majors by almost any metric.
(2) While SS might have more positional value than wherever Mookie ends up, Mookie is much more likely to be a plus defender than Bogaerts.
(3) Mookie provides a lot more value on the basepaths.
(4) Xander has more power potential from a scouting standpoint (and thus potentially a higher ceiling as a hitter) but in terms of production there hasn't been much of a power difference between them.
(5) Mookie's floor as a hitter is a lot higher because of his control of the strike zone.

I think there's a reasonable middle ground where we don't get too carried away with Betts or assume that he's locked on to become a superstar while at the same time acknowledging the data in front of us, which all suggests that he's a more valuable player in expectation than Bogaerts.

foulkehampshire · Dec 2, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
Bogaerts may have an even higher ceiling; that will depend not only on the power developing into the .500-SLG range but also on his ability to stick at SS and play passable defense there through his offensive prime. But I think he has a much lower floor.

That floor being eerily reminiscent of Asdrubal Cabrera. I'd be fairly disappointed if that's what he amounted to.

MakMan44 · Dec 2, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
Because he has to play a position....and if he can't play SS, he has a lot less value?

Obviously, if he hits 30 HR, he can play anywhere, but that's hardly a given.

That's not my argument. I'm asking why he has to be ABOVE average defensively. If he's passable as a SS, isn't that good enough?

ivanvamp · Dec 2, 2014

Great, great topic, Snod.

First, soxprospects.com scouting reports on each guy:

Betts: [SIZE=11pt]Athletic infielder who had committed to play at Tennessee prior to signing. Excelled in four sports in high school. Plus-to-better speed. Ability to impact a game with his legs. Compact, level swing. Fluid load. Quick hands, strong wrists. Plus hit tool. Solid overall approach for someone his age, works counts, and isn’t overly aggressive. Consistently makes solid contact to all fields. Plus strike zone judgment. Potential to produce high levels of contact as he continues to develop. Fringe-average power potential. Small-framed, but strong for his size. Solid-average arm. Fluid and smooth actions defensively. Soft hands. Former shortstop transitioned to second base as a professional. Tends to stay back on balls rather than charge. Excellent instincts and profiles as a plus defender at second base. Played some center field in high school, began seeing some game action there in May 2014.[/SIZE]

Bogaerts: [SIZE=11pt]Athletic, filled-out frame with potential for more physical development. High baseball IQ with impressive maturity. Smooth, fluid swing that generates lift. Elite batspeed. Strong and explosive hands with good separation during stride. Stays balanced. Creates solid post-contact extension. Shows the ability to drive the ball to all fields with backspin and carry. Ball jumps off bat. Improving using hands during swing to stay inside the baseball. Shows strong fluidity going with pitches the other way for being age-advanced. Plus-to-better power ceiling. Potential 30 home run bat. Developing the makings of a solid plate approach. Pitch recognition improving, especially against off-speed offerings. Overall, a potential plus hitter at the big league level. Plus arm. Solid-average range, but may lose footspeed as he gets bigger. Needs to slow the game down defensively and resist the feeling to rush plays. Inconsistent with footwork and staying down on the ball. Choppy at times with his movements and reactions. Improvements in the field and physical development should allow Bogaerts to stick at shortstop for the outset of his big league career. If he needs to move off the position, has the tools to play either third base or left field. Highly coachable and displays strong work ethic. MVP ceiling.[/SIZE]

Looking at these two, the scouting reports are obviously bullish on each guy. They call Betts a plus player. Xander, though, has an MVP ceiling.

Now, I don't know when these were written. But they seem to favor Xander.

I, however, look at it this way. Xander's ceiling, IMO, based on his minor league numbers and the potential he's flashed at the major league level, is a definite MVP kind of player. 30 hr, solid OBP, league-average fielding kind of SS. Betts, meanwhile, has the potential to be a superduperstar. By that I mean a guy who is a 7 WAR player. I think Mookie could be a 20 hr, 30 sb, .900 ops, outstanding fielding, versatile, generational kind of player.

I don't want to move either guy.

That said, Chris Sale is also an elite, elite, elite talent.

SoxFanForsyth · Dec 2, 2014

It's a really really tough decision, and I wouldn't trade either of them for anyone who isn't elite elite (which I should mention I do consider Sale to be).

If I had to trade one or the other, I trade Bogaerts, and that is hard to type because I absolutely love the kid.

My reasoning is pretty simple. Even when Bogaerts was crushing the ball early in the season, he was doing it with a crazy high BABIP (near .400). Betts, meanwhile, posted his numbers with extremely sustainable peripherals so no regression can be projected based on artificially inflated peripherals.

I really have a hard time with this because RH pop is so, so, so valuable. I keep going back and forth on this, I don't think there is a right answer, and now I'm sad for having thought about it

bankshot1 · Dec 2, 2014

An interesting side-bar is that almost without exception, we all think both these players have huge upside, most of us see Betts as a lead-off hitter, X as a power/middle of the order guy, but very few of us can pin-point what positions these guys will play.

grimshaw · Dec 2, 2014

If we aren't using projections it's tough for me to evaluate Xander, so I'll go with my favorite.

Since 1980, 17 2B have played at least one season between their years of 19-23

Here are the great: Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg and Robinson Cano

Here are the good (I/e starters for several years): Carlos Baerga, Gregg Jefferies, Delino Deshields, Edgardo Alfonzo, Steve Sax, Asdrubel Cabrera, Jose Altuve, , Luis Castillo, Omar Infante, Chuck Knoblauch

And here are the fringy guys: Jerry Browne, Ruben Tejada, Luis Rivas

Almost every one of those guys became better than average big leaguers, 2 of them are HoF, 1 of them is probably following them, and 11 of the 17 were all-stars at one point.

His closest comp to me looks like Altuve.

I think Betts has a few things working in his favor to project him as an above average player going forward. He has speed, he can play multiple positions, he has a great batting eye, his hands are lightning quick, and he can put the ball in play.

Put me down as him having multiple all-star seasons.

Xander has tremendous power and quick hands and plays a premium defensive position that lacks power and could play 3B or LF eventually. He already has playoff experience and played well, yip-free. He hasn't yet shown the ability to adjust to certain pitches (outside sliders or fastballs up) or adapt to a new position quite as quickly as Betts.

Same as above. The power and patience is there, we just need to see him make the adjustment. September was a great sign.

jimbobim · Dec 2, 2014

This is a great comparison topic. I've read in varying places Mookie compared to McCutchen and X to Tulo. Those are obviously incredibly high ceilings and optimistic projections.

Mookie-
Advanced bat that has performed across all levels
Versatility Athleticism
Less Service time accrued then X
Make up - pretty much off the charts

X
Advanced bat that disappeared for an uncomfortably long stretch last year
Athletic - may have to switch positions
Power potential- still hasn't fully tapped but has natural power
Struggled immensely at 3b so ticketed for LF if he can't learn SS
Boras Client- will have to pay top dollar to sign before FA

I would take Mookie because of versatility but I really like both as cornerstones.

HillysLastWalk · Dec 2, 2014

Snodgrass'Muff said:
This discussion is going on in the trading for starting pitching thread right now, but is probably worthy of its own thread. People have been pointing to Betts' major league success last season as a reason he's more valuable than Xander as a trade chip, or at the very least, why he's the better player to bet on if they are going to move one of the two. That may well be true, but I don't think it's cut and dry, and there is probably a very interesting debate to be had about the two young phenoms.

I think this is a faulty premise. I do not think that people are focused just on those 200 at bats. You keep saying that, but I don't think that's correct.

I think people like Betts because of his insane skillset, his athleticism, his minor league numbers, his major league numbers - all combined.

67WasBest · Dec 2, 2014

For me they are both extremely high value players with near equal value.

Mookie advantages are speed, and a more complete all around game,
Mookie disadvantage is we have yet to reach that point when a book is written on him and how he adjusts

Xander's advantages are power and consistency (mid year slump be damned). His disadvantage is he thinks he's a shortstop, when he's just marginal, and handled a move off the position poorly

I like Mookie more, but with Castillo we already have a speed guy for the top of the rotation.
I like Xander almost as much, but when we move him to 1B or a corner, his value drops

I'm voting Mookie because I like the contact and speed component holding up long term.

JohntheBaptist · Dec 2, 2014

HillysLastWalk said:
I think this is a faulty premise. I do not think that people are focused just on those 200 at bats. You keep saying that, but I don't think that's correct.

Yeah, completely agree, and I'd go further and suggest that you can "draw conclusions" on those 200 ABs--it's just the nature of the conclusions that come into question. If someone is stating anything with certainty with those numbers (which I've personally yet to see from anyone), that's a conclusion you really can't draw yet. If you're taking that record and projecting Betts as the superior bet of the two, that is absolutely a conclusion you can draw, in conjunction with the rest of their respective records. Basically what this thread is looking to do.

I get it's a thread based on a hypothetical, but I feel really strongly the potential in both is such as to make gambling on the unknown in any sort of return short of Kershaw or Trout ultimately not worth it. I would keep both absolutely in all but the most unlkely scenarios, and not even consider offering either in the Hamels, Cueto, Zimmerman iterations. Yes, in theory, either should probably go if you're getting Chris Sale, but my preference in that scenario would be to skip Sale and go with keeping both while targeting SP that only cost money.

smastroyin · Dec 2, 2014

The Red Sox have a good relationship with Boras though. I don't know why we equate our own hatred of the man with the fact that the Red Sox have gotten every Boras client I can remember they have wanted in the uniform.

For versatility, I do think you have to give Xander more time than people here have to adjust to positions he has never played before. You can argue that Mookie adjusts faster and I can't argue with you, but I could argue that the Red Sox have already determined that Betts can't play the left side of the infield, so their versatility, right now, seems to be basically even (Mookie - 2B and OF, Xander, SS and OF).

I think people calling Xander a marginal shortstop rely too much on their own biases (anecdotal against large framed SS in general) to make this conclusion. However, his defense really did slump quite a bit when he was moved off position last year (and stayed that way when he moved back), and maybe that is not coincidence and a mark against him. As well, he seemed to have trouble remaining as engaged as he should be when it was clear the team was a loser.

All of that said, as much as people's eyes may hate Xander defense unfairly, my eyes love his swing just as unfairly. It is not going to happen and I'm not saying it is going to happen, but his swing evokes Manny Ramirez. Meanwhile, Betts has an unsual hitch that I worry will fall apart quickly if any part of his body gets impacted (thumb injuries, eyesight, etc.). To be fair, I also felt this way about Pedroia, but he has managed to avoid injury enough that it hasn't depressed his great career too much.

Gun to my head in a neutral environment I would prefer Xander. This is because I believe he can play SS with a little bit more instruction and training (it's also why I continue to think it was dumb to re-sign Drew but that's ca. 1985 Boston Harbor water under the bridge) and a little more engagement on his part. I'll be honest in my worry that I'm not sure the current staff are the guys to provide this instruction, and this more than anything would make me lean toward the 2015 Red Sox having Betts as opposed to Bogaerts because the staff isn't going away.

ivanvamp · Dec 2, 2014

How does this conversation change (not to throw off the thread) if we add Swihart into the mix? Who would you rather have: Betts, Bogaerts, or Swihart, who looks like he might be a generational talent at catcher?

twothousandone · Dec 2, 2014

For 2015, I believe Betts is more expendable than Bogaerts. Since Ramirez could play shortstop, that gap is lessened, but I don't think the Red Sox really want that. There's still talent to play every position, both ways, without Betts. Without Bogaerts, there's a hole at SS. I can't figure how that math on that works, but it seems to me that, all else being equal, the argument is stronger for keeping Bogaerts because his absence in 2015 will hurt more than Betts' absence in 2015.

ivanvamp · Dec 2, 2014

By the way, this kind of conversation - which young stud is better - gets me all kinds of fired up. The Sox have so many quality prospects right now, it's almost overloading my senses.

plucy · Dec 2, 2014

Betts.

Mookie has superior defensive and base running skills, and gives up the offensive side due to X's power potential. But it will not be by much, as his contact and speed will give him a high OBP.

As for Bogaert's edge due to playing slightly below average at the top of the defensive spectrum, I don't have confidence that the advantage will last for long. A lack of quickness and a fringe-average arm will push him backwards into LF. Mookie could move up the scale to CF (assuming Rusney starts in CF in 15).

MakMan44 · Dec 2, 2014

ivanvamp said:
How does this conversation change (not to throw off the thread) if we add Swihart into the mix? Who would you rather have: Betts, Bogaerts, or Swihart, who looks like he might be a generational talent at catcher?

I don't know. Both Mookie and Xander have MLB success under their belt, Swihart has yet to get here. I think I'd have to give him of the 3 because of that but I'm splitting hairs to find a reason.

grimshaw · Dec 2, 2014

smastroyin said:
I'll be honest in my worry that I'm not sure the current staff are the guys to provide this instruction, and this more than anything would make me lean toward the 2015 Red Sox having Betts as opposed to Bogaerts because the staff isn't going away.

Is that an indictment of Butterfield specifically or a lack of emphasis organizationally? All I've heard about him is that he never stops coaching and talking defense, but I have no idea if he's actually effective at teaching or if players listen. I'm on the record as thinking Bogaerts still has a few years to improve his defense since he's still at Low A age and believe he can stick there as long as Hanley has, assuming he doesn't get too huge.

Merkle's Boner · Dec 2, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
I pick Betts because of his precocious contact and plate discipline skills. The list of players in baseball history who have had an age-21 season with at least 200 PA, an OPS+ over 120, and a K/BB under 1.5 is a short and distinguished one. Not everybody on it turned out to be an All-Star, but there are no washouts on it either. As foulkehampshire says, the floor here appears to be very high. And the ceiling is something on the order of Tim Raines.

Bogaerts may have an even higher ceiling; that will depend not only on the power developing into the .500-SLG range but also on his ability to stick at SS and play passable defense there through his offensive prime. But I think he has a much lower floor.

I believe you are overvaluing that list. Other than Richie Ashburn, I would be disappointed if Betts doesn't have a better career than all of those guys, including Brunansky.

I am surprised how many people are siding with Mookie on this, and I love Mookie. What has changed since this time last year? Are people down on Xander due to his poor 21-year old season? Or are people really taken by Betts' great year? I'll take Xander and the chance to have a middle of the order bat for the next six years.

TheoShmeo · Dec 2, 2014

twothousandone, why is your frame of reference limited to 2015? To me, this question has to take into account how these two might stack up long term, and includes the notion that Betts will be under their control cheaply for longer.

But even looking at 2015 in isolation, I don't think it's obvious that Boegarts is more valuable than Betts. Betts is more versatile and seems like he will be a better overall hitter, albeit with less pop.

Boegarts' absence would of course create an issue at SS but (1) his D was rather uneven last year and I join those questioning whether he will ever be adequate and (2) between Marrero, Ramirez, possibly Betts and Holt, they should be able to cover SS (and I don't mean on a rotating basis).

I'd take Betts, and it would not be a hard decision. Not that I'm itching for a Xander trade.

geoduck no quahog · Dec 2, 2014

There are a couple of t hings that make comparisons difficult.

- I believe Bogaerts was hurt last year (wrist). There were veiled discussions about how it was impacting his top hand through the strike zone. If true, that would provide some explanation for his improvement later in the season (along with adjusting to the opposing team's adjustments)

- Betts hasn't had enough appearances to respond to opponents adjustments, although from what I read - his bat control, batting eye and style makes finding holes in his swing more difficult than the average high average / low slugging hitter.

Bogaerts has more defensive options as he ages...SS - 3B - Corner Outfield - 1B vs. Betts: CF - 2B - Corner Outfield

A Hobson's choice.

smastroyin · Dec 2, 2014

grimshaw said:
Is that an indictment of Butterfield specifically or a lack of emphasis organizationally? All I've heard about him is that he never stops coaching and talking defense, but I have no idea if he's actually effective at teaching or if players listen. I'm on the record as thinking Bogaerts still has a few years to improve his defense since he's still at Low A age and believe he can stick there as long as Hanley has, assuming he doesn't get too huge.

Work ethic doesn't equal results. The fact is that Xander has not shown improvement in his time in the majors (and in fact got worse at 3B in his second year). But more, unless they are going to approach this year differently, the staff jerked Xander around for no reason other than their own indecision. Betts meanwhile did have success even playing on a somewhat crappy team and being asked to play multiple positions. So specific to the Boston Red Sox immediate future, it seems Betts might be a better fit.

semsox · Dec 2, 2014

I think a weird consideration in all of this is that due to Pedroia's presence on the roster for the foreseeable future, they're forced to artificially depress Betts' value. In a vacuum without other player considerations, there's no question that playing Mookie at 2nd is the correct move in terms of maximizing his value. So from that perspective, it's possible that Mookie is the more valuable overall player, but is less valuable to this Red Sox team as currently constructed.

phenweigh · Dec 2, 2014

A very tough choice, but I would trade Mookie before Xander. The tiebreaker for me is Xander's power, because to my eye it's easy power. The swing is so fluid it looks effortless, but when he hits one on the screws ... WOW! I don't recall the exact game early last season, and who knows when watching on TV it could be a function of microphones or some guy in the truck had the amplifier on 11, but the sound was more like a cannon shot than a bat on ball sound. The thought of potentially trading that away makes me very, very, very sad.

geoduck no quahog · Dec 2, 2014

smastroyin said:
...Betts meanwhile did have success even playing on a somewhat crappy team and being asked to play multiple positions. So specific to the Boston Red Sox immediate future, it seems Betts might be a better fit.

There's 2 sides to that immediate future coin, because today the Red Sox own Yoenis Cespedes - meaning Betts could be camped in AAA for a season if absolutely necessary. There's really no good alternative to Bogaerts at SS (I'm not buying Ramirez at that position).

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Dec 2, 2014

Snodgrass'Muff said:
Another thing to keep in mind about their minor league track records is the age at which they were playing at each level.

Mookie:

RK: 18
A-: 19
A: 20
A+: 20
AA: 21
AAA: 21
MLB: 21

Xander:

DSL: 17
A: 18
A+: 19
AA: 19, 20
AAA: 20
MLB: 20, 21

So while Mookie's minor league numbers may be slightly more impressive overall, Xander was doing it at a younger age at every level. He made Portland's roster in his age 19 season and Pawtucket and the major league roster in his age 20 season. At 19 Mookie was in the NYPL, and at age 20 he topped out with Salem in the Carolina League (A+). Given the two minor league track records, even though doing what Mookie did at age 21 was very impressive, I'm more impressed with Xander's overall minor league career.

This is a good point although I think "slightly more impressive" is understating things. Mookie's wRC was 20+ points higher than Xander's at every level from A+ onward in the minors. Whether one thinks doing it a year earlier makes up for that consistent 20-30 point difference is a matter of opinion, but there is pretty significant difference in their production.

I never realized until looking into this post that they were born only six days apart. That's pretty cool.

sackamano · Dec 2, 2014

I really hope the Sox don't feel the need to deal either. Watching these two come through the ranks is kind of reminding me of the Lynn and Rice early days, when you just knew there was no way the Sox weren't going to win a World Series soon with those two guys in the lineup everyday. Oh wait.

I love what Betts brings everyday in terms of OBP and speed, but as it was pointed out upthread, the Sox are suppressing his value by playing him in the OF.

Tough to choose between the two.

twothousandone · Dec 2, 2014

TheoShmeo said:
twothousandone, why is your frame of reference limited to 2015?

But even looking at 2015 in isolation, I don't think it's obvious that Boegarts is more valuable than Betts. Betts is more versatile and seems like he will be a better overall hitter, albeit with less pop.

Well, I mention Marrero in 2016, so it's not "limited" to 2015. But that is the clearest scenario where the absence of Bogaerts hurts more than the absence of Betts to the 2015 Red Sox. 2016 is less clear (what if Castillo can't handle CF? Will Craig bounce back?) , 2017 less clear still. If the question is "who will have a better career?" that's immaterial. But if the question is "who should the Red Sox trade now?" (and neither isn't an answer) I think there's more clarity on the negative impact Bogaerts absence in 2015 will have, versus the impact the absence of Betts in 2015 will have.

The further out we go from here, the greater variability gets added to the equation.

sackamano said:
Watching these two come through the ranks is kind of reminding me of the Lynn and Rice early days, when you just knew there was no way the Sox weren't going to win a World Series soon with those two guys in the lineup everyday. Oh wait.

Does it ever remind of you of 1992, with Mo Vaughn and trying to find a spot for Scott Cooper?

Doctor G · Dec 2, 2014

I'll take Mookie based on his Hit tool. He swings at fewer pitches in the strike zone than X, which I translate to a greater ability to wait for his pitch and to hit it with authority.
Mookie has had consistent success at every level he has played. Xander got buried last summer in the months when pitching is at its best and most competitive.

E5 Yaz · Dec 2, 2014

Given the roster construction for the next few seasons (particularly in lieu of the Hanley and Panda signings), I'll take Mookie because of his defensive flexibility, his pitch recognition and his base-running ability. If he fulfills the promise shown last season, he gives the team positives that they don't have in abundance elsewhere.

If I had my druthers, I'd keep them both; but if Lester signs elsewhere, I could see parting with Xander in a deal for a No. 1

OCD SS · Dec 2, 2014

E5 Yaz said:
Given the roster construction for the next few seasons (particularly in lieu of the Hanley and Panda signings), I'll take Mookie because of his defensive flexibility, his pitch recognition and his base-running ability. If he fulfills the promise shown last season, he gives the team positives that they don't have in abundance elsewhere.

If I had my druthers, I'd keep them both; but if Lester signs elsewhere, I could see parting with Xander in a deal for a No. 1

If the Sox need to deal one of them for a #1, wouldn't it be for 2015? Otherwise they can just try to sign someone from the 2016 pitching class.

In that event X looks much harder to replace in the short term.

MakMan44 · Dec 2, 2014

OCD SS said:
If the Sox need to deal one of them for a #1, wouldn't it be for 2015? Otherwise they can just try to sign someone from the 2016 pitching class.

In that event X looks much harder to replace in the short term.

Why? Hanley slides to SS this season and Marrero's glove is probably ready at some point soon.

Actually, Marrero's glove might be ready now.

Mighty Joe Young · Dec 2, 2014

Let's see .. Projecting both guys .. I see X being the better hitter .. Definitely more power. But Mookie has a much better rounded set of skills.

A lot of Xander's future value is tied to being a SS and I'm not all that confident that he can stay there long term.

As for Betts , he has lots of areas where he can get better .. His speed should help becoming a better OF .. And as he learns the league's pitchers his SB totals should increase. His plate discipline should greatly enhance his hit tool. But to become a true superstar he will have to get the power numbers up .. Probably in the vicinity of 30 bombs a year and I don't think he has that in him. I see him with power akin to Pedroia in his prime.

If I had to choose I'd keep Betts for his broader skill set.

But I don't want to choose .. I don't want either one traded.

Mookie vs Xander: Battle of the B's

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