Minor League Thread 2024

JM3

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1768820871391588837


I want to use this exciting new tool, but there isn't really an exciting trend with Castro (he was bad the last 10 games of the season, .601 OPS?).

He hit well in Salem (121 wRC+) & it was largely walk based (16.7%, .131 ISO).

He hit well in Greenville (119 wRC+) & it was largely slugging based (.163 ISO, 9.1% walk).

His k-rate remained relatively modest (17.6% to 19.4%), & generally the Greenville stint left me feeling more optimistic as those walk rates in Salem are not particularly sustainable at higher levels.

One potential issue is that he is a switch hitter, but was bad against lefties last year (.610 OPS compared to .802 against righties).

Castro, who turns 21 in May, was already Rule 5 eligible this season. It will be interesting to see if he forces himself onto the 40-man roster this off season.

Last season he played...

CF - 51 games
LF - 28 games
RF - 19 games
DH - 5 games

I am still more skeptical of him than SP & have him #22. I'm a bit concerned that he isn't quite toolsy enough.
 
JM3

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Castro looked pretty toolsy today tbh.

mwonow said:
"Shameful" is pretty strong - but hey, I'm down with another season of watching the minor league thread more closely than the Sox forum.

Too bad there isn't a similar option in the NFL, where the Pats are saying "'lack of aggressiveness in the free agent market?' Hold my beer!"
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Yeah. People are frustrated & I get that. Especially the gulf between the luxury tax threshold & the payroll.
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1769031564560580775


I am always left with the existential question of do I sleep on Meidroth because of his face.

& frankly idk. Last year he raked in 100 PAs in FCL (180 wRC+) & A-Ball (166 wRC+), & he came out this year raking in Greenville - 173 wRC+ in 97 PAs including a bonkers 21.6% walk rate (20.6% k-rate).

He came out hot in Portland, too...

1st 33 games: .861 OPS, 23 bb/24 k

Before scuffling for a while...

Next 49 games: .650 OPS, 26 bb/49 k

& then ending strong...

Final 9 games: 1.003 OPS, 10 bb/5 k

He ended up with a 119 wRC+ in Portland & flashed some glove, including earning all defense team honors in the Eastern League. I'm still a bit skeptical, but he can play 2B, 3B & kinda SS & has good bat-to-ball skills... so we shall see what happens.

I have him #24, but it's really a big tier from like 15 to 30.
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1769389112509784289


Feels like we've talked a lot about Sandlin since the trade & there's not really any new data points since then.

I have him #12.

“[His] fastball as an amateur was kind of low 90s,” explained Breslow. “In pro ball, it’s been up to 98, 99. He pitches at probably 95 to 97. He has a good breaking ball and a change that we see room to optimize. So it was a combination of kind of raw stuff, projection and a chance to maybe tweak the usage a little bit and improve performance.”
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https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/03/13/red-sox-david-sandlin-tabbed-by-mlb-pipeline-as-under-the-radar-prospect-on-bostons-spring-breakout-roster/

Pipeline has him as the under-the-radar guy on the Red Sox Spring Breakout squad.

Red Sox: David Sandlin, RHP (No. 16)
Sandlin posted a 3.51 ERA in 14 games across Single-A and High-A in the Royals' organization, but his season abruptly ended in July with an oblique strain. The right-hander struck out 87 in 66 2/3 innings in his relatively light sample size. Sandlin, acquired in a February deal for right-hander John Schreiber, is armed with a four-pitch mix -- a 93-95 mph fastball that can reach 98, a mid-80s slider, a low-80s curveball and an upper-80s splitter. His selection allowed him to post a 79/13 K/BB ratio at Single-A in 2023.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-spring-breakout-under-the-radar-prospects?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

I will note that there is a fair amount of downside here. I baked his lab gains this off season pretty heavily into my ranking. He did also suffer from a .360 BABIP in A-Ball, but 58 innings in A-Ball at 3.38 ERA is frankly sub-LDLR level while being 2 years older :)

The good news is the 12.1 k/9 & 2 bb/9 is pretty legit, & he's apparently added a few mph & some nice movement this off season.
 
LogansDad

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JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1769031564560580775


I am always left with the existential question of do I sleep on Meidroth because of his face.

& frankly idk. Last year he raked in 100 PAs in FCL (180 wRC+) & A-Ball (166 wRC+), & he came out this year raking in Greenville - 173 wRC+ in 97 PAs including a bonkers 21.6% walk rate (20.6% k-rate).

He came out hot in Portland, too...

1st 33 games: .861 OPS, 23 bb/24 k

Before scuffling for a while...

Next 49 games: .650 OPS, 26 bb/49 k

& then ending strong...

Final 9 games: 1.003 OPS, 10 bb/5 k

He ended up with a 119 wRC+ in Portland & flashed some glove, including earning all defense team honors in the Eastern League. I'm still a bit skeptical, but he can play 2B, 3B & kinda SS & has good bat-to-ball skills... so we shall see what happens.

I have him #24, but it's really a big tier from like 15 to 30.
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I didn't get to see him last year, so this spring is kind of my first look at him, but I just posted in the game thread that I really, really like the way he plays. I don't know if he cracks the MLB Red Sox because the infield kind of appears to be set for the next few years, but I really want to see him succeed wherever he ends up.
 
JM3

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LogansDad said:
I didn't get to see him last year, so this spring is kind of my first look at him, but I just posted in the game thread that I really, really like the way he plays. I don't know if he cracks the MLB Red Sox because the infield kind of appears to be set for the next few years, but I really want to see him succeed wherever he ends up.
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Hunter Noll is also a fan.

View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1769061050945593577


View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1769067627375198624


Idk, hope he's good enough that he forces himself into the lineup or into a trade. 2022 4th rounder, turns 23 in July.

That big stretch where he stalled out for a while in Portland gives me a lot of pause that there is some sort of noticeable hole in his approach & as he continues to face higher level pitching, he might not be able to keep up. But he can definitely improve his stock a ton this season if he rakes in Portland & then continues to rake in Worcester.
 
mwonow

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I've been an in-the-shadows Meidroth stan for a while - I like the way he looks at the plate.
 
mwonow

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Yeah, quick and (especially) direct was my impression too - I like his approach.
 
JM3

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Some random Red Sox 40 man stuff...

* Only 1 guy has been on the 40 since the DD era (Devers). Dalbec has the 2nd most seniority.

* 12 guys have been added under Breslow.

* How everyone was acquired:

Trade 13
Draft 7
FA 7
IFA 6
MLFA 2
Waivers 2
Rule Five 2
MiLB R5 1

* 22 pitchers, 18 hitters
 
The Gray Eagle

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JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1769031564560580775


I am always left with the existential question of do I sleep on Meidroth because of his face.

& frankly idk. Last year he raked in 100 PAs in FCL (180 wRC+) & A-Ball (166 wRC+), & he came out this year raking in Greenville - 173 wRC+ in 97 PAs including a bonkers 21.6% walk rate (20.6% k-rate).

He came out hot in Portland, too...

1st 33 games: .861 OPS, 23 bb/24 k

Before scuffling for a while...

Next 49 games: .650 OPS, 26 bb/49 k

& then ending strong...

Final 9 games: 1.003 OPS, 10 bb/5 k

He ended up with a 119 wRC+ in Portland & flashed some glove, including earning all defense team honors in the Eastern League. I'm still a bit skeptical, but he can play 2B, 3B & kinda SS & has good bat-to-ball skills... so we shall see what happens.

I have him #24, but it's really a big tier from like 15 to 30.
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With solid contact skills and some defensive versatility, Chase Meidroth has the ceiling of a contact-oriented utility player. He'll always have to hit but has shown strong contact skills and an advanced approach so far.
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But what about his contact skills?

I've been trying to think of a major leaguer who might be a comp if he hits his ceiling, but I can't think of anyone.
When I saw him in Portland, his hair for some reason reminded me of Jeff Blauser, but he was more of a pure SS than Mediroth.
Jed Lowrie maybe?
 
JM3

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SOSH is a place where SP is often quoted with their opinions held in high esteem.
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I came across this on the SP forum in a convo about the bullpen & Justin Slaten's appearance on the To Show We Go podcast because he found @byAndrewParker 's podcast on SOSH.

But my main takeaway was I'm really glad that my respect for all the great work SoxProspects does comes through, even when I disagree with certain things.
 
JM3

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Cotillo on some potential extension candidates.

Names Casas as the primary one.

Beyond him, a source with knowledge of Boston’s thinking said last week, the team’s young outfielders and promising rotation/swingman candidates, represent “obvious” candidates for deals.
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Don't expect pre-debut deals for ATM Machine:

the Red Sox aren’t likely to strike a similar deal with one of their top minor leaguers like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony or Kyle Teel in the near future.
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Article goes on to break down 9 different potential candidates (Abreu, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Grissom, Houck, Rafaela, Winck & Wong).

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/03/with-brayan-bello-signed-which-young-red-sox-could-sign-extensions-next.html
 
LogansDad

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For clarity, the article states they aren't likely to make pre-debut deals like the Brewers did with Chourio, for ATM.

I think the goal will likely be to extend them around the same time Bello got extended, if all goes well.
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1769844713060766119


YOELY

The higher up we go, the less I really have to say about these guys as the more we've already talked about them.

I have YOELY #8. Great exit velocities & results for a 17 y/o with at least some chance of sticking at SS. Played 36 games at SS & 10 at DH.

145 wRC+. Kind of an interestingly low walk rate for the DSL (6.7%). Unclear if a plate discipline issue or just wanted to attack the ball, but only struck out 11.5%.
 
Merkle's Boner

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JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1769844713060766119


YOELY

The higher up we go, the less I really have to say about these guys as the more we've already talked about them.

I have YOELY #8. Great exit velocities & results for a 17 y/o with at least some chance of sticking at SS. Played 36 games at SS & 10 at DH.

145 wRC+. Kind of an interestingly low walk rate for the DSL (6.7%). Unclear if a plate discipline issue or just wanted to attack the ball, but only struck out 11.5%.
Click to expand...
What are the chances we see YOELY in Salem this year? Do I dare dream about Greenville?
 
JM3

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Merkle's Boner said:
What are the chances we see YOELY in Salem this year? Do I dare dream about Greenville?
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95% to Salem barring injury. Guys like Johanfran & Yute did that this year, & Yoely is higher regarded than both, plus the FCL season ends earlier this year.

Like 12% to Greenville? Idk.
 
Merkle's Boner

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JM3 said:
95% to Salem barring injury. Guys like Johanfran & Yute did that this year, & Yoely is higher regarded than both, plus the FCL season ends earlier this year.

Like 12% to Greenville? Idk.
Click to expand...
If he gets to Greenville, he’s probably a top 25 prospect going into next year. Which would be nice.
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1770105678280966457


WIKELMAN

I also have him #9. Was interesting watching him in the Spring Breakout game. Didn't really seem to know where the ball was going & was down a few mph from last year... but still pitched 3 scoreless, hitless innings.

Don't really have much new to say that I haven't already said, but it will be really exciting if he can start commanding the zone & let himself cook.

He turns 22 on Monday.
 
jon abbey

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He writes for BP but mostly posts about the Yankees prospects, as he is a Yankees fan.
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1770274973191389508


Wilyer has had an up & down spring.

The up...

2 homers
16.4% bb
.196 ISO

The down...

.152 BA
34.5% k
73 wRC+

I have him #10 & I don't think he's going to be able to be an every day player anytime soon (-3 wRC+ in SSS for the Sox, .730 OPS for Worcester against lefties).

I think he plays adequate, but not plus defense insomuch as he's not fast (35th percentile sprint speed) but has a very strong arm (97th percentile).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/wilyer-abreu-677800?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

If he can cut down on his whiff rate, he would be a positive contributor, but unless he improves that, he's going to be kind of just there.
 
JM3

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Bleis gained 2 inches & 33 lbs during his shoulder rehab, & was hurt all last year, which explains a lot.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1770438822888689733

“That was something I was dealing with the whole year,” Bleis said.

He said his shoulder felt like it would “pop out” or “dislocate” every time he swung and missed.
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“I think when you gain weight and muscle, everything gets easier (with generating power),” he said. “When you don’t have that power, sometimes you tend to change your mechanics at the plate and you try to generate more power from other sources. So for me getting bigger, it definitely helps me to keep it simple.”
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/03/top-red-sox-prospect-gained-33lbs-during-rehab-i-needed-to-get-stronger.html
 
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View: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1770453952045133891


“There are certain players that we really try hard to get in those places together,” said Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham. “Whether it be providing food or housing, we’ll do everything that we can under the umbrella of Major League Baseball to support these guys and let them feel comfortable away from home together. … I think really a selling point is saying, hey, Kyle, Roman, Nick Yorke, Miguel Bleis, all of our players, you're going to be working together, competing against each other, supporting each other. So let's get better together.”
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“When you have the top players training hard, competing, failing and then making the adjustments to improve,” Abraham said, “it allows for the rest of the 180 players to do the same and say, ‘I want to be like Marcelo. I want to be like Roman.’”
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https://www.mlb.com/news/boston-red-sox-spring-training-prospect-report-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
 
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JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1770590059076415668


PERALES is a tough one for me, because he hasn't pitched that much, & his results haven't been amazing... buuuuut he's still someone I'm excited about (& have #6).

Perales was one of the last signings of the DD era for $75k in July 2019, too late to join the club for that season, & then '20 was obviously a lost season due to the Pandemic.

Since then...

'21 - 2 IP (DSL)
'22 - 35.2 IP (FCL & A)
'23 - 89.2 IP (A & A+)

So he's trending in the right direction, but we still haven't seen a ton of him. & when we have seen him, he's walked a lot of people (5.0 bb/9 each of the last 2 seasons).

I think with Perales the main thing is the flashes of unhittability & the knowledge that if we can get his mechanics right, there is a pitcher in there who can throw up to 99 with big movement, a nice slider, & potential to throw a useful cutter & changeup.

Last year Perales pitched 4 games where he allowed 0 runs in 5+ innings & allowed 1 or 2 hits in all 4 of them. But he only pitched 3 games all season without a walk.

View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1675580428328087560


View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1682498825200517121
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1770831193086292141


Quiet Tools: The Nick Yorke Story

I have Yorke #11 for ceiling reasons, but he's part of a tier which includes 6 to 11 for me, so I don't really feel strongly that SP is wrong or anything.

After a supa great '21 (146 wRC+ in A & 158 in A+), Yorke had an injury plagued '22 in A+ & only put up an 84 wRC+, before bouncing back last year with a 116 wRC+ in AA. Which is fine & a perfectly competent age 21 season (Yorke turns 22 on April 2nd), but not like omg wow.

The good thing is he has turned into a solid defender at 2B, but he has been 2B & DH only in his MiLB career, & they want him to get more positional flexibility, apparently in LF.

It will be interesting to see if Yorke starts the season in Worcester. I'm kind of feeling like he's younger than I think of him as, & I should probably give him a bit more of a benefit of the doubt. We shall see, though. He had a rough spring before being sent to MiLB camp...2 for 26 with 2 singles, but he looked good in the Spring Breakout game.

Oddly, last season Yorke, a RHH, was much better against righties (.818 OPS) than lefties (.636 OPS). The reverse split has been the case in all 3 of his MiLB seasons.
 
mwonow

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Gotta admit, I'm one of those bandwagon flip-floppers who was off the Bleiswagon until ST started. I'm now settling back into a seat, and imaging how much fun an outfield with 90th percentile outcomes for Roman and Bleis would be for the next 6/more years.
 
LogansDad

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mwonow said:
Gotta admit, I'm one of those bandwagon flip-floppers who was off the Bleiswagon until ST started. I'm now settling back into a seat, and imaging how much fun an outfield with 90th percentile outcomes for Roman and Bleis would be for the next 6/more years.
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You might be forgetting Rafaela, too.
 
mwonow

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Wasn't forgetting him, just trying to see if he might be 'the one' who survives the Spinal Tap drummer curse on Red Sox 2Bs.
 
Sin Duda

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I don't want to go all "calm eyes" intangibles here, but it appears the Red Sox have either intentionally chosen high character guys, or got lucky, or the press is too fawning for MTA. I like that Cora said "Our SS is the captain" of the Breakout game. A guy who loves baseball, has great talent at the plate and in the field, and who speaks English and Spanish sounds like a legitimate potential leader to me. And Teel was bred to be a leader by his dad and fields the position where leadership is expected.
 
JM3

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So how's this for a hot take...Jordan Montgomery is starter Brennan Bernardino & the Red Sox clearly aren't that into Bernardino so this is not surprising.
 
LogansDad

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JM3 said:
So how's this for a hot take...Jordan Montgomery is starter Brennan Bernardino & the Red Sox clearly aren't that into Bernardino so this is not surprising.
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Here's mine, from some research I was doing earlier. (You can ignore the third guy, jon abbey thinks he's cool, though)

80009
 
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simplicio said:
That's a spicy one. Bernardino not exactly a workhorse though.
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Nope. But they are both lefties in their early 30s who are better against lefties, greatly outperformed their underlying metrics, have below average movement on their pitches & below average velocity.

& as a capper, they both had exactly a 3.20 ERA last year & both are sinker, curveball, changeup pitchers.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-montgomery-656756?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brennan-bernardino-657514?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
 
JM3

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That's not a value judgment or anything & I'm not saying they're right or wrong, but it doesn't seem like their favorite archetype. New FO loves hard throwers, high IVB, & sweepers/cutters/sliders, so it's not too surprising if they didn't bid heavily on Montgomery.

They're almost certainly at least a pitcher short, but YOLO. They have a lot more usable, optionable depth this year than they did last year at least.
 
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