looking at that sortable table, Fangraphs really believes in the offense (again, I think this is sensible) and thinks the pitching will be middle ground. I'm skeptical on the latter.
Even granting all that — the computer doesn't really understand the full set of circumstances surrounding, say, Sale, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi, and who knows what adjustments they had to make to accommodate the weird 2020 season — I don't see how that vaults us into first place.looking at that sortable table, Fangraphs really believes in the offense (again, I think this is sensible) and thinks the pitching will be middle ground. I'm skeptical on the latter.
I think depth is a big separation for the red sox here. I wouldn't be surprised if that distribution for that projection is wide and weird. 7.6 of the projected 13.1 pitching WAR is distributed to Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nathan Eovaldi -- yet they are only projected for 415 of the 1458 or so innings pitched, and (like in 2020) there are no replacements for them.Even granting all that — the computer doesn't really understand the full set of circumstances surrounding, say, Sale, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi, and who knows what adjustments they had to make to accommodate the weird 2020 season — I don't see how that vaults us into first place.
Isn't that also true of the Yankees — good pitching (17.7 WAR, without Tanaka or Paxton), great lineup (22.4 WAR, without LeMahieu) — except that they look to be deeper on both sides of the ball? By my math that makes NY ~6 wins better, and that squares much better with my sense of the world.
I know it's sort of pointless to quibble about projections before we even have real rosters, but I guess I'm anxious for news.
At one point, I believe he made it to the Top Ten on Sox Prospects..... no expectations at this point for him to see ML action ever.Red Sox have traded CJ Chatham to the Phillies for a player to be named. I imagine this is to make room for Perez on the roster.
View: https://twitter.com/M_Montemurro/status/1351228485285662723
They seem to have fixed this (plus NY signed DJ/Kluber).New FanGraphs 2021 projections are out, and... they weirdly love the Red Sox? (Also the Angels...)
Padres .590
Dodgers .579
Mets .560
Astros .541
Red Sox .541
Yankees .539
Braves .538
Athletics .529
Angels .528
White Sox .528
Does anyone know what 2021 Red Sox roster they're projecting to tie the Yankees for the AL East crown? Are they projecting us to sign a bunch of starting pitching? Has some spreadsheet somewhere decreed that Tanner Houck is an ace? Matt Andriese, 2021 Cy Young award winner?
The numbers don't appear to square with the FanGraphs depth chart projections, which have our current roster worth 34 WAR, or .500ish, on the strength of 21 WAR from the hitters and 13 and change from the pitchers. That seems much more realistic to me, and closer to our general sense that we have a pretty strong position player group, but a mediocre pitching staff unless everything goes perfectly healthwise.
make Pedeythe next Remy Even if Nesn needsto pay him asmuch money as is in his sox contract"Did some checking. Pedroia is not planning a comeback and a resolution could come this month. Given Dustin's status, they'll want to do this correctly Also fair to say they haven't dropped anybody off the 40-man they saw as having an impact. But they're running low on those " - Pete Abe
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1351252543641415690
That isn’t how MLB contracts work. Also, based on your most recent posts, I think your space bar is broken.make Pedeythe next Remy Even if Nesn needsto pay him asmuch money as is in his sox contract
Jarren Duran'sthread title onsox prospects is Hungry like the wolf, That might be what convinced himto make that hiswalkup song when he got promotedt to portland seadogsin 2019
Heseems to be aclose to
theage when his kids grand parents are getting somuch older that becomes more important to movecloser to them'
Can you explain what you mean by this? What is your definition of lately, and have they really drafted so badly?And it's over, Blue Jays ponied up 6/150. And I agree, never a chance. Glad he's finally signed, maybe Benintendi market moves.
I think if everything goes right with ERod and Sale, they could contend this year. But they're looking towards 2022-23 when hopefully the farm is top half of the league again. It kinda sucks since X is at his prime right now and might opt out, but that's again the Red Sox' fault for drafting so bad lately.
I highly doubt that it's henry telling bloom not to spend money and more the other way around of bloom not seeing any high priced free agents that he thinks are worth signing right now. But I know that doesn't fit the narrative of the ownership group that spent as much as anyone all of a sudden turning cheap overnight.Why are we even discussing Springer?? There is ZERO chance the Sox are signing him and I agree with that decision. Springer is 31 years old and will command likely a 5 yr deal at least 125 million and cost our 2nd round pick.. He is a great player but he won't put the Sox into contention and he is WAY WAY WAY over what the Sox are paying these days. Henry and Bloom will not come out and say it but 2021 is ANOTHER bridge year for the Red Sox. Bloom has clear instructions from Henry not to sign any of these long term type FA deals. Sox will be looking for a bargain in pitching along the lines of Sanchez, Teahren, and Matt Moore along with other low cost pitching options. Then when they are out of contention by the deadline Bloom will look to deal the likes of Eovaldi, JDM, and Vasquez for prospects. This is ALL ABOUT rebuilding the Sox through the farm and keeping the payroll down. Anyone who thinks any different is simply deceiving themselves. I only wish John Henry would come out publicly and have the jam to admit this to the loyal Red Sox fans.
OK, I have been waiting for a Sox fan mod but I can't watch this anymore. Bye bye bye RRS.
Honestly, I love the signing ... as a Red Sox fan.Toronto just made competing in 2021 even harder by signing Springer - man the AL East is relentless.
Oh I agree that it helps the Sox in a couple years, but not for 2021. I was never that interested in Springer, and am glad they didn't go for him. It's a good point that the Blue Jays have so much young talent that their window was likely to overlap with the next Sox window, so its OK if they try to pull their window forward a bit.Honestly, I love the signing ... as a Red Sox fan.
Life would be easier if we weren’t in a division with two other big-market teams. Given that the Jays have the resources they have, however, I’m delighted to see them commit $120M to a guy who is never getting into Cooperstown without buying a ticket and plays a position where the Jays have gotten solid production on the cheap the past two seasons. Springer is likely to be a poor use of the Jays’ resources, especially by the time the Sox are ready to contend again (which I don’t think will be 2021).
You were definitely right about him getting close to his mark, but is he really that close to Rendon? Similar ballpark maybe, but I'd say Rendon is not just a half-step better. Springer was great in 2019 with 6.5 fWAR and very solid last year with 5.14 fWAR per 600 PA. Before that though he put up seasons of 2.9 and 4.5 fWAR. Meanwhile Rendon clocked in at 6.7, 6.2, 7.0 fWAR in 2017-2019 and 6.98 fWAR per 600 PA in 2020. So that's something like 19 fWAR vs. 27 fWAR over 4 years. Going based on projections depending on the system you look at Rendon is projecting at about a win to a win and a half better.Someone else compared Springer to Rendon, and they‘re in a similar ballpark as players. Maybe Rendon (who was a year+ younger) is a half-step better, but he got 7/$245M last year. If Springer goes for 5/$125M, that’s a huge relative bargain.
That said, I don’t think the Sox will go there. They’d lose the #34, as Grimshaw notes, and they’d likely be using up the cash that could be otherwise available to steal a prospect in another team’s salary dump. Plus they still need more pitching.
I’m sure it’s tempting, but let’s see what he ultimately goes for. I think he ends up getting close to that $150M.
Just for completeness, bWAR has them much closer: Rendon at 31.2 WAR over 8 seasons, Springer at 27.5 over 7.You were definitely right about him getting close to his mark, but is he really that close to Rendon? Similar ballpark maybe, but I'd say Rendon is not just a half-step better. Springer was great in 2019 with 6.5 fWAR and very solid last year with 5.14 fWAR per 600 PA. Before that though he put up seasons of 2.9 and 4.5 fWAR. Meanwhile Rendon clocked in at 6.7, 6.2, 7.0 fWAR in 2017-2019 and 6.98 fWAR per 600 PA in 2020. So that's something like 19 fWAR vs. 27 fWAR over 4 years. Going based on projections depending on the system you look at Rendon is projecting at about a win to a win and a half better.
Regardless, I'm also happy that the Sox didn't pay this price. 6/150 will look like a bargain if the Jays get a couple of 6 win seasons out of him, but if he ends up being closer to a 4-5 win player for the first two years and then a 1-3 win player over the rest it doesn't look so great. There's certainly upside there, but the Jays are a lot better positioned to benefit from that upside than the Sox are, and the Sox would likely suffer more than the Jays in the downside scenario.
Thank you.OK, I have been waiting for a Sox fan mod but I can't watch this anymore. Bye bye bye RRS.
(edit: I deleted most of the back and forth, sorry to the posters who took time to write considered answers.)
I know it's a discussion for another board - feel free to move it there - but, when and why was the decision to go this path made?Well, he was given every guidance and chance to turn things around, and listened to none of the good advice he was given from many posters. There comes a time when any further attempts become obviously futile. I try to give newbies time to feel the place out but that was the wrong call on this one.
There is a 'dope' forum where all mod actions are logged, and discussed if needed. It's only visible to 'dopes'.I know it's a discussion for another board - feel free to move it there - but, when and why was the decision to go this path made?
I also think that Arroyo is more likely to start at 2nd than ChavisNot that this matters one way or the other, but I think Peraza is with the Mets.
Oh ok. CBS sports' web site needs to update things then.Not that this matters one way or the other, but I think Peraza is with the Mets.
If they're not going to bolster the pitching staff I really hope they find out what they have in Houck/Seabold/Mata this year. Using them out of the bullpen wouldn't be as useful as seeing how their skill set plays going through an MLB lineup multiple times.
They're definitely not a division champ in current form, and frankly I don't see what signings they could even make at this stage to get them there absent a blockbuster trade out of left field. I think the question for this season is more whether this is another total rebuilding season where we continue to trade away older ML talent for younger assets (JDM is an obvious trade-deadline candidate if he returns to form this year but the Sox suck overall) or whether they can "pull a Rays" and cobble together a wild card spot contender and hope they get hot at the end of the year/in the playoffs.Oh ok. CBS sports' web site needs to update things then.
And maybe @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat is right about Arroyo. Either way...we aren't talking about a division champ here. Especially if the pitching is as bad as I think it might be.
On the other hand...
If Rodriguez is back and better than ever, and Eovaldi does what we think he's capable of, and Sale returns and is dominant Sale, then the pitching staff looks a lot better. But that's a lot of "if"s.
I'm with you on the team's prospects and best case scenario. In a division with the Jays loading up, the Yankees being the Yankees, and the Rays always finding a way to contend, winning the division is a tall task even in the best of circumstances. I think the Red Sox have plenty of talent, though some of it is shrouded in question marks (Martinez, ERod, Sale, Eovaldi). They're going to score runs even if they don't add any more significant offensive pieces. They have the potential for a decent pitching staff.They're definitely not a division champ in current form, and frankly I don't see what signings they could even make at this stage to get them there absent a blockbuster trade out of left field. I think the question for this season is more whether this is another total rebuilding season where we continue to trade away older ML talent for younger assets (JDM is an obvious trade-deadline candidate if he returns to form this year but the Sox suck overall) or whether they can "pull a Rays" and cobble together a wild card spot contender and hope they get hot at the end of the year/in the playoffs.
At the rate things are going, they're probably not relying on two of those guys - they're going to churn their way through them all just like last year, hoping to ride a hot hand or see one or two of them suddenly develop. There will probably be other flotsam given the ball as well, plus the inevitable openers.They really need to address the pitching staff. As things stand, they're relying on two of Pivetta/Houck/Seabold/Mata. I'm willing to ride with someone from this group filling one rotation slot at least until Sale is ready, but I think relying on two from this group is too much to expect, especially at the start of the season. We need another starter - preferably on a one or two year deal (so as not to commit too much money and also not to block these or others that may be ready by '23, such as Song or Groome).
Right now, here's what I think we're looking at:
C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Chavis
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Benintendi
CF - ??
RF - Verdugo
DH - Martinez
Bench - Plawecki, Peraza, Arroyo, Arauz, Renfroe
SP - Sale (IL), Eovaldi, Rodriguez, Pivetta, Andriese (Mazza in for Sale to start the year?)
RP - Barnes, Brice, Valdez, Brasier, Hernandez, Walden, Brewer (then guys like Houck and Seabold possibly)
Huge hole in CF still. 1b is uninspiring. If Benintendi stays and gets back to what he was his first two years, the offense should be fine (actually, a lot rides on JD's return to form). And I like Eovaldi and ERod, but right now the rest of the rotation is yuck. And the bullpen....yikes. Not liking it at all, UNLESS Barnes gets back to 2017-2019 form, Hernandez takes another step forward, and one of the other guys emerges.
But this....isn't a very good team.
Yep good catch. Completely blanked on Perez even though he was signed recently, and I even contributed to that thread. hahaYou are missing Martin Perez in the rotation, which is significant but not a huge difference maker. They still need to add at least 1 more SP.
I'm in the re-sign JBJ camp. It stabilizes the OF situation and going defensive is a good way to help offset the weak pitching staff. If Duran looks ready to step in, that's a good problem to have. You have an asset to flip for another need.
I'm actually starting to feel optimistic about this team- yes.... lots of "ifs" but every team has them, just the Degree of Iffyness on the Sox is pretty high compared to the MFY's and other teams.You are missing Martin Perez in the rotation, which is significant but not a huge difference maker. They still need to add at least 1 more SP.
I'm in the re-sign JBJ camp. It stabilizes the OF situation and going defensive is a good way to help offset the weak pitching staff. If Duran looks ready to step in, that's a good problem to have. You have an asset to flip for another need.
I really, really don't understand when people say this.Hard to be excited about the season right now, that's for sure.
Last year's team had the worst winning percentage of any team since I was a year old (1965), and the second worst since 1932, which is before my now-deceased parents were born. We may have had the worst pitching staff in franchise history, certainly in the last 75 years. The team has made only very modest changes since last year and is pretty much entirely dependent on a return to health of Sale and Rodriguez and a return to form of JDM to avoid another catastrophic season.I really, really don't understand when people say this.
It's the Red Sox.
It's Baseball.
I'm always excited for each season.
Would we even wang JBJ on a deal longer than maybe 2 years? Duran is going to be ready soon, and with Verdugo that only leaves one spot available in the outfield long-term. I'd take JBJ over Benintendi for a year, but long-term I'd prefer Benni. Of course it's a pretty good chance they don't have either of them to start the season.I'm actually starting to feel optimistic about this team- yes.... lots of "ifs" but every team has them, just the Degree of Iffyness on the Sox is pretty high compared to the MFY's and other teams.
I'm betting Beni sticks and turns it around.... JDM rebounds. JBJ signs a 4 year deal. One of Pivetta, Seybold and Houk turn in a surprisingly very good year and make Bloom look like a genius. Team ends up around 88-90 wins, gets a WC slot and gets bounced out. A good year. Not great of course... but a good step forward into the future