We have multiple threads for Teoscar Hernandez. The other FA who's been consistently linked with the Red Sox is Lucas Giolito, so let's give him a thread, too. There's discussion of him already, quoted below!
If we sign Giolito, I'm going to be angry. Putting him in Fenway will probably be a disaster, as he will give up loads of doubles in addition to all the home runs.
Ask a fan of any of the 3 teams he pitched for last year if they would want him back and they will laugh.
White Sox: 4.90 ERA in 2022, 3.79 in half of 2023, followed by a 6.89 ERA with the Angels, who couldn't get rid of him fast enough, followed by a 7.04 with Cleveland.
But I'm sure he will do great moving to the second-best hitter's park in the game, sure.
Just sign Montgomery and you really improve the entire pitching staff for several years. He is a way better bet than this guy.
Heyman: Red Sox showing “big interest” in Lucas Giolito.
Robert Murray on YT says Giolito will command upwards of $20 million/year.
Could *maybe* see this on a one year deal. Otherwise I’m banging the under all day.
What a country!
I actually find Giolito very intriguing, assuming the cost bakes in his poor performance.
Check out the statcast progression on this guy:
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and then this:
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It doesn't really represent your typical "decline" but rather a cliff over the 2021 offseason. He's lost some fastball velocity (about 1 mph over the last 5 seasons) but he was never an elite fastball velocity guy. The value in the pitch was in it's movement. The run on the pitch is gone, though. He's not lost any significant velocity on his breaking pitches and he still gets elite extension. For those reasons, I don't believe he has declined because of a broken arm. If it was, you'd see a more uniform decline in velocity, but his stuff is obviously way diminished. All of this happened in the season he turned 28, not 32. So what happened? I have no idea tbh. But I think Breslow, Willard and Bailey do. Or at least if they are pursuing him, they believe they have the answer. I'm inclined to believe them given the gap between my pitching knowledge and theirs. He seems like a prime candidate for a stuff enhancement based on data.
I could see the consternation if this were the only move they make to bolster their pitching before spring training, but in a vacuum, I'm pretty intrigued by the opportunity. There's a sizable risk that he can't be fixed but if he can, he would represent a pretty large step forward for the pitching staff. Giolito turns 30 in July and from what I understand, has been through some major personal issues in the past 18 months that could have led to a lack of focus and/or lack of preparation. Maybe they can solve it. If they think they can, I'd be interested in him at a discount. I just don't want him to be the only thing they do.
I've no doubt that if Tampa Bay signed Giolito, he'd quickly become a guy posting an era around 3.00 with good peripherals.
There is speculation that Giolito was impacted by the crackdown on sticky substances. The data seems to support this as not only did his fastball lose an MPH from 2021 to 2022 but it also lost about 200 RPMs of spin. This caused his fastball to gain about 2 inches of vertical drop (less vertical drop is better as it gives the batter the “rising” effect).
Interesting. Where are you finding spin rate stats and is there any explanation for Giolitos good run in June last year?
Spin rates are tracked by statcast.
I don't know your source here, but how do they account for him maintaining spin rate throughout 2021? The crackdown happened June 1st that year (remember how Garrett Richard went from stud to '23 Kluber overnight?) but Giolito's spin rates held for the full year.