Kyle Schwarber goes to WAR

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,852
As noted in this MLB.com article written by Mike Lupica, Kyle Schwarber is having a very unusual season. Schwarber is set to become the first player in MLB history to hit 40 homers, score 100 runs, strikeout 200 times and bat below .200 (currently he is hitting .198).

What Lupica doesn't mention in his article is despite having cracked 45 home runs and scored 102 runs, and sporting an OPS+ of 122, Schwarber is functionally a replacement level player by WAR. bWAR has him at 0.5 WAR this season, and climbing that high has been a pretty recent development, for most of the season he was flirting with being below replacement level.

Schwarber's real issue is not the strikeouts or the low batting average, it's his abysmal defense. Schwarber really should be a DH, but with Bryce Harper occupying that spot on the Phillies, he has been forced to make 101 appearances in the outfield, were he has massive negative value using pretty much any advanced metric you want to look at. Baseball-Reference has Schwarber with an oWAR of 2.7 and a dWAR of -2.9.

Yet despite the advanced metrics showing Schwarber should be of minimal value to a team, that isn't anywhere close to functionally important he feels. He's hitting leadoff for a good team that has a great offense, and despite the high strikeout rate and low batting average, I imagine most fans would be excited to see him in the lineup each day, and opposing fans fearful of what he might do at the plate. The Phillies signed him to a 4/$80 million contract after the Red Sox declined to bring him back, and you never hear about that being a bad deal despite Schwarber bringing back minimal value by WAR metrics.

I wonder if this is the case of Schwarber's terrible defense being forgotten about because he occasionally hits a ball into New Jersey, if fans/managers/front offices are once again underrating the value of strong defensive play in favor of slugging. At the same time, it seems impractical to think that Schwarber is truly providing minimal value despite what the advanced metrics are saying. I know their was a debate about whether or not the Sox should have brought him back, and the last thing the Sox need is another butcher in the field, but I can't also deny the team would be more exciting if Schwarber was in the lineup.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,912
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Shwarber has 45 home runs.

He has 46 singles.

He really is that terrible in the field. They aren't even playing him at 1B where he might be a neutral defensive player, he's in LF and butchering everything that goes his way.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
24,644
Let me preface this by saying that I am not an old man screaming at clouds and that generally the numbers are usually right. However in the last two years, Schwarber has hit 91 home runs (and counting). I know that his defense is absolutely atrocious and adding him to a team that is already fielding five DHs might not be the best idea, but 91 home runs is still pretty useful, I think. Even if it's from an aesthetic POV where you get excited because a guy like Schwarber is coming up and it's fun to watch a guy mash a ball to Jupiter.

At the end of the day baseball is supposed to be fun, not some sort of McKinseyian ode to value and usefulness.

IDK, I'd like to have Schwarber on the Sox.
 

billy ashley

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,233
Washington DC
I think WAR is an incredibly useful stat for providing a quick high level summary of a player. I don't think it should be seen as the only definitive metric to be used.

I think Schwarber (and to a lesser extent Yoshida) are underrated by WAR because their teams can't/won't utilize them correctly. As a DH, he's fine. Not just fine but excellent. Probably close to 2 WAR. But yeah, the D is so bad.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,274
I'm guilty of using WAR as a catch all description of a player's value. But we all kind of take for granted that it accurately weighs offense and defense into one measure. Does it? The fact that bWAR and fWAR can be very different based on defense is a red flag for me. My WAG is that oWAR reasonably correlates with how teams evaluate hitting, but they see dWAR as kinda useless. ( I don't think they "use" oWAR either, but they at least look at is and say "yeah, that's kinda right".)

All that said, there was no space for Schwarber on a long term deal on a roster that already had JD Martinez and many other pressing needs.
 
Last edited:

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,912
Deep inside Muppet Labs
I think WAR is an incredibly useful stat for providing a quick high level summary of a player. I don't think it should be seen as the only definitive metric to be used.

I think Schwarber (and to a lesser extent Yoshida) are underrated by WAR because their teams can't/won't utilize them correctly. As a DH, he's fine. Not just fine but excellent. Probably close to 2 WAR. But yeah, the D is so bad.
Harper has to DH for Philly so Schwarber has to play the field. It's not ideal.

Like JMOH I like to see a guy crush 485 foot home runs, and Schwarber's OBP is very good so hitting him leadoff makes a lot of sense. But the defense is abysmal, it's worse than anything you've ever witnessed. Mike Greenwell was Roberto Clemente compared to Schwarber out there.
 

yeahlunchbox

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 21, 2008
788
To me Schwarber would be a case where the defensive WAR should be attached to the manager or the GM and not the player. It's not Schwarber's fault that he's either a square peg in a round hole on that roster (poor roster construction by the GM) or he's being played in a position he doesn't belong in (bad fielding lineup by manager).
 

billy ashley

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,233
Washington DC
Totally agree that he's a horriic fielder and that this negates much of his offensive value.

I just think that when you're evaluating a player, you should probably not hold it against him that he's being asked to do something he absolutely should not do. Kyle Schwarber is a good but incredibly limited baseball player. His value is entirely on offense and even there, it's a good package not an amazing one.

But yeah, I think I'm less likely to be hung up on the WAR metric here, because he shouldn't be in the field. Again, it's the same deal (to a lesser extent) with Yoshida. Yoshida had a successful rookie year. Dude shouldn't play the field, though.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,912
Deep inside Muppet Labs
You can only rate players on what they do, though. Yes, context is important, and we can add context that he shouldn't be in LF.

But he is in LF, and his play there is actively harming his team.

Stats matter, WAR matters, context matters. Put all three together, always.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,274
To me Schwarber would be a case where the defensive WAR should be attached to the manager or the GM and not the player. It's not Schwarber's fault that he's either a square peg in a round hole on that roster (poor roster construction by the GM) or he's being played in a position he doesn't belong in (bad fielding lineup by manager).
To be fair, they didn't anticipate Harper needing to DH. Though signing a guy with the intent being a full time DH does remove flexibility when it comes to things like this.
 

Sad Sam Jones

Member
SoSH Member
May 5, 2017
2,563
Scwarber's stolen base numbers across his career are bizarre as well. Last season he successfully swiped 10 bases in 11 attempts. Even with the rule and equipment changes, he has zero successful attempts this year... and had just one two years ago. Outside of 2022, he's only stolen 12 bases in 25 attempts (presumably that includes several botched hit-and-run plays).
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
8,027
Boston, MA
The Phillies are 13 games over .500 and comfortably in the playoffs. I think they're happy with Schwarber as he is.
 

jbupstate

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2022
614
New York, USA
How many more wins do the Sox have this season with average or better defense?

How many extra pitches/innings have the SPs thrown because of extra outs?

Defense matters. Schearber and his HRs don’t make the Sox better. He creates the rally that leads to a loss and ends the rally because he strikes out so much.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
6,016
I would love to have Schwarber as a regular season player. But if he continues to play in the field in the playoffs, that's what would scare the hell out of me. In the end, there are so many variables on the defensive side where a terrible fielder may or may not show himself on a game to game basis. Depending on factors like style of pitcher on the mound, type of opposing hitters, etc.

His terrible defense is only costing the Phils a tiny fraction of a "win" per game which you deal with over the course of a long season with his offense. But if Schwarber has a particularly "unfortunate" day where he gets hit the ball/multiple balls in a key situation and blows the game, that is only one game out of a short series and his hitting may not overcome the miscue (although he has been a beast in past playoff series!) even playing adequate defense the rest of the series.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,912
Deep inside Muppet Labs
How many more wins do the Sox have this season with average or better defense?

How many extra pitches/innings have the SPs thrown because of extra outs?

Defense matters. Schearber and his HRs don’t make the Sox better. He creates the rally that leads to a loss and ends the rally because he strikes out so much.
He's got a .345 OBP this year because he walks so much, and a K isn't necessarily any worse than any other type of out and in some cases is preferred (Verdugo grounding into that game-ending DP comes to mind immediately).

He'd be a fine addition to the lineup as a DH. He'd likely be a tolerable one as a 1Bman. As a LFer he is a net negative.
 

cannonball 1729

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 8, 2005
3,578
The Sticks
He really is that terrible in the field. They aren't even playing him at 1B where he might be a neutral defensive player, he's in LF and butchering everything that goes his way.
Truth. BBRef has his offensive WAR at 2.7 and his total WAR at 0.5. So the moral of the story seems to be that he is indeed that good at the plate and that bad in the field.

It's hard to overstate how bad he is in the field. He's not, like, "Manny Ramirez has no range" bad. He's "a pop-fly to the outfield is a white-knuckle event" bad, or "not able to catch batted balls at the level expected of a professional ballplayer" bad, like what would happen if you took someone from the local rec league and told them to go stand in left field. In 101 games this year (and in the Year of "Everything Is A Hit!") he has five errors in left; there are only seven teams in baseball that have more than five errors in left field this season.

Just for fun, here's one of the "'Best' of Kyle Schwarber" fielding videos on the internets.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rCFu7FXlPE
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,317
It’s interesting how similar Yoshida and Schwarber’s value is, considering how different they seem to be as players.

There’s a few really high K / low average players in the league (Schwarber, Muncy, Gallo, Burger) to an extent that I can never remember.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,852
Yeah, Muncy as a hitter is similar to Schwarber in that he hits for a lot of power, but has a low average (actually up to .210 after being below the Mednoza line for most of the year) and a high OBP (relative to his average). The difference is Muncy provides real utility as an average fielder at multiple positions.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
27,121
Newton
Yeah, Muncy as a hitter is similar to Schwarber in that he hits for a lot of power, but has a low average (actually up to .210 after being below the Mednoza line for most of the year) and a high OBP (relative to his average). The difference is Muncy provides real utility as an average fielder at multiple positions.
Is Muncy average in the field? He looked absolutely terrible at 3B against the Red Sox earlier this month.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,932
Maine
Is Muncy average in the field? He looked absolutely terrible at 3B against the Red Sox earlier this month.
Mostly positive career numbers at every infield position he's played (1B, 2B, 3B). UZR doesn't like him as much, but otherwise I'd call him average overall. He probably is slipping a bit as he ages though.

career DRS (2023 number)
1B +4 (0)
2B +6 (0)
3B +7 (-2)

Career Total Zone (2023 number)
1B +10 (0)
2B +7 (0)
3B +12 (-3)

UZR (2023 number)
1B +2.2 (0)
2B -0.3 (0)
3B -12.5 (-5.3)
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,852
Yeah he's not tremendous, but the fact that he can play multiple positions at a non-terrible level gives him a lot more value than a player like Schwarber who really can't play anywhere except DH. Gallo is interesting in that he is actually a good outfielder, but he's sunk even below what has been acceptable for his style of hitter, he's only hitting .181 the last four seasons and averaging 22 homers a year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,932
Maine
I wish someone could post a compilation of Masa's awful plays in LF, so that I could see them. I have seen him being average, but not awful, and I watch most of the games. It's possible my standards are too low.
I don't think your standard is low. He's not a gold glover by any means but he makes the basic plays. Playing half his games in front of the Monster is going to negatively impact his defensive stats and make him look worse than he is. It's happened to every LF the Sox have had in the advanced metric era.

Neither would be anywhere near my first choice defensively but I'd take a full season of Masa in LF over Schwarber every time.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,219
I don't think your standard is low. He's not a gold glover by any means but he makes the basic plays. Playing half his games in front of the Monster is going to negatively impact his defensive stats and make him look worse than he is. It's happened to every LF the Sox have had in the advanced metric era.

Neither would be anywhere near my first choice defensively but I'd take a full season of Masa in LF over Schwarber every time.
Well, sure, but that’s the difference between horrible and pretty bad.

As for the every LF thing, Benintendi’s defensive numbers look pretty identical for all four teams he’s played for, I don’t buy the ‘defensive stats don’t understand Fenway LF’ narrative (not just you, it gets brought up a lot here). Yoshida’s rep coming from Japan was that he was bad defensively, and he’s been bad defensively.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beninan01.shtml
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
3,211
Truth. BBRef has his offensive WAR at 2.7 and his total WAR at 0.5. So the moral of the story seems to be that he is indeed that good at the plate and that bad in the field.

It's hard to overstate how bad he is in the field. He's not, like, "Manny Ramirez has no range" bad. He's "a pop-fly to the outfield is a white-knuckle event" bad, or "not able to catch batted balls at the level expected of a professional ballplayer" bad, like what would happen if you took someone from the local rec league and told them to go stand in left field. In 101 games this year (and in the Year of "Everything Is A Hit!") he has five errors in left; there are only seven teams in baseball that have more than five errors in left field this season.

Just for fun, here's one of the "'Best' of Kyle Schwarber" fielding videos on the internets.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rCFu7FXlPE
After seeing that, 5 errors seems rather low.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
43,027
AZ
Phillies are 30-12 when he hits an HR (.714).

Not a hugely meaningful stat. I think if you take most players and ask what a teams' record is when they hit an HR, it will be skewed -- because they hit an HR. And, so, they will have a losing record in the games he doesn't. So, I get all that.

But 30-12 is really good. Just to pull a couple of comparisons out of a hat, the Braves are 29-15 when Olsen hits an HR, the Red Sox are 16-13 when Devers hits one -- it's a team stat as much as anything.

All that said, when a guy has 42 games with a home run, and you are highly likely to win when he hits one, well beyond your season win percentage, it's hard to take .5 WAR seriously as a measure of value.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,231
Portland
Yeah, Muncy as a hitter is similar to Schwarber in that he hits for a lot of power, but has a low average (actually up to .210 after being below the Mednoza line for most of the year) and a high OBP (relative to his average). The difference is Muncy provides real utility as an average fielder at multiple positions.
This is my take as well. Schwarber is also relatively station to station. They are both 20% above league average as hitters via wRC+. He's basically Justin Turner but being paid a whole lot more and not able to play anywhere in the infield.

He's very much living on the edge with that strikeout rate too. I don't want that kind of boring ass player on my team.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,219
Phillies are 30-12 when he hits an HR (.714).

Not a hugely meaningful stat. I think if you take most players and ask what a teams' record is when they hit an HR, it will be skewed -- because they hit an HR. And, so, they will have a losing record in the games he doesn't. So, I get all that.

But 30-12 is really good. Just to pull a couple of comparisons out of a hat, the Braves are 29-15 when Olsen hits an HR, the Red Sox are 16-13 when Devers hits one -- it's a team stat as much as anything.

All that said, when a guy has 42 games with a home run, and you are highly likely to win when he hits one, well beyond your season win percentage, it's hard to take .5 WAR seriously as a measure of value.
This reads to me like one of those ‘how bad could Jeter’s defense be if NY keeps winning’ attempted defenses of him from back in the day.

Jeter’s defense was indeed quite bad, but Schwarber has literally been the worst defensive player in MLB by DRS this year.

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,274
Phillies are 30-12 when he hits an HR (.714).

Not a hugely meaningful stat. I think if you take most players and ask what a teams' record is when they hit an HR, it will be skewed -- because they hit an HR. And, so, they will have a losing record in the games he doesn't. So, I get all that.

But 30-12 is really good. Just to pull a couple of comparisons out of a hat, the Braves are 29-15 when Olsen hits an HR, the Red Sox are 16-13 when Devers hits one -- it's a team stat as much as anything.

All that said, when a guy has 42 games with a home run, and you are highly likely to win when he hits one, well beyond your season win percentage, it's hard to take .5 WAR seriously as a measure of value.
Would the flip side of this be that when he doesn't hit a HR, the Phillies are more likely to lose? Because Olson, Devers, etc. are more likely contribute without hitting a HR?
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,852
This is my take as well. Schwarber is also relatively station to station. They are both 20% above league average as hitters via wRC+. He's basically Justin Turner but being paid a whole lot more and not able to play anywhere in the infield.

He's very much living on the edge with that strikeout rate too. I don't want that kind of boring ass player on my team.
This is something interesting when you look at players with similar profiles--they basically need to keep hitting 40 homers per year in order for them to have any value, and a lot of guys crashed quickly out of the league once they stopped hitting homers at that rate, which is very hard to sustain over multiple seasons. Chris Carter hit 41 homers and then was out of the majors two years later. Khris Davis hit 40+ homers for three straight seasons and then was pretty much done two years later. Other Chris Davis would have been done sooner if he didn't have a giant contract. Miguel Sano flamed out quickly. Gallo would probably be out of the majors if he wasn't a plus glove, which gives him more value than most of the other guys.

Adam Dunn seems like the only guy who really sustained that kind of hitter profile for a lengthy career, and I believe Schwarber is probably a better hitter than most of the guys I named above. Completely different era, but Dave Kingman I guess would be another one.
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
8,357
Manchester, N.H.
So, others have absolutely followed this better than I have - how much confidence do we hold in fielding weighting and WAR numbers in general? Like, to the eye Schwarber is a butcher in the field - that's hard to deny - and likewise I know defensive metrics and tracking have had huge advances in quality even from a generation ago with public tools like statcast and any proprietary tools, but do we feel confident that the defensive deductions taken beyond a positional adjustment for a guy like Schwarber are roughly accurate or could there be an issue in measuring that? I don't know the answer at all on this to be honest, I just have some trouble looking at all bat / no glove type guys and reconciling that someone like a 2009 Adam Dunn or 2023 Kyle Schwarber might only be roughly as valuable on a per rate basis as a guy like 2023 Rob Refsnyder who is combining below average defense with below average offensive numbers. It just feels like individual player fielding may be overweighted a bit potentially in the formula?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,219
So, others have absolutely followed this better than I have - how much confidence do we hold in fielding weighting and WAR numbers in general? Like, to the eye Schwarber is a butcher in the field - that's hard to deny - and likewise I know defensive metrics and tracking have had huge advances in quality even from a generation ago with public tools like statcast and any proprietary tools, but do we feel confident that the defensive deductions taken beyond a positional adjustment for a guy like Schwarber are roughly accurate or could there be an issue in measuring that? I don't know the answer at all on this to be honest, I just have some trouble looking at all bat / no glove type guys and reconciling that someone like a 2009 Adam Dunn or 2023 Kyle Schwarber might only be roughly as valuable on a per rate basis as a guy like 2023 Rob Refsnyder who is combining below average defense with below average offensive numbers. It just feels like individual player fielding may be overweighted a bit potentially in the formula?
Different stats are better than others, my impression is that DRS is pretty accurate and that's the only one I look at anymore.

They are working to improve those stats all the time, offensive stats have issues too (for instance, it doesn't come up so much, but hits/HRs off position players in blowouts should not be lumped into regular offensive numbers but separated out somehow).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
43,027
AZ
This reads to me like one of those ‘how bad could Jeter’s defense be if NY keeps winning’ attempted defenses of him from back in the day.

Jeter’s defense was indeed quite bad, but Schwarber has literally been the worst defensive player in MLB by DRS this year.

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
I wasn't trying to say that Schwarber is good at things that he's terrible at. My post was mostly aimed at WAR.

I think it would be closer to saying that Jeter's poor defense didn't matter that much, not that he wasn't bad at defense.

Home runs and runs matter, Schwarber hits a lot of them, and they usually win when he does. I'm skeptical given his impact on a subset of games that the Phillies would truly be 82.75-69.25, instead of 83-69, if they had a replacement level player playing instead of him. Maybe, and maybe I'm just fighting a battle against a tried and true statistic, but I just find it very hard to believe.

Would the flip side of this be that when he doesn't hit a HR, the Phillies are more likely to lose? Because Olson, Devers, etc. are more likely contribute without hitting a HR?
It's a good point.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,219
Home runs and runs matter, Schwarber hits a lot of them, and they usually win when he does. I'm skeptical given his impact on a subset of games that the Phillies would truly be 82.75-69.25, instead of 83-69, if they had a replacement level player playing instead of him. Maybe, and maybe I'm just fighting a battle against a tried and true statistic, but I just find it very hard to believe.
Does it help if I tell you that Schwarber has a 1.008 OPS in the 81 games he's played (before today) that PHI has won and a .595 OPS in the 69 he's played that they've lost?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=schwaky01&year=2023&t=b
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
43,027
AZ

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,231
Portland
So, others have absolutely followed this better than I have - how much confidence do we hold in fielding weighting and WAR numbers in general? Like, to the eye Schwarber is a butcher in the field - that's hard to deny - and likewise I know defensive metrics and tracking have had huge advances in quality even from a generation ago with public tools like statcast and any proprietary tools, but do we feel confident that the defensive deductions taken beyond a positional adjustment for a guy like Schwarber are roughly accurate or could there be an issue in measuring that? I don't know the answer at all on this to be honest, I just have some trouble looking at all bat / no glove type guys and reconciling that someone like a 2009 Adam Dunn or 2023 Kyle Schwarber might only be roughly as valuable on a per rate basis as a guy like 2023 Rob Refsnyder who is combining below average defense with below average offensive numbers. It just feels like individual player fielding may be overweighted a bit potentially in the formula?
To me it's the artificial fielding adjustments built in by position that are unreliable when calculating defensive WAR. What happens when your pitchers have huge strikeout numbers, or have a huge flyball split and you play first base. It's just saying, "well you're playing first, but you're not playing shortstop, so here's our best guess at how things would go if you tried to play there."

Rafaela can certainly play CF, but has never played 2b before this season and it's affecting his value, but not how good he is as a player.

A-Rod (fuck that guy) is another example. He would have had more value at short and could certainly have played their longer, but he is dinged because he was forced to play 3rd and that affected his WAR.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,219
A-Rod (fuck that guy) is another example. He would have had more value at short and could certainly have played their longer, but he is dinged because he was forced to play 3rd and that affected his WAR.
This makes logical sense but if you look at his career year by year, I'm not sure it had much of an impact. It's not like he moved to DH, you still get a positional bump for 3B and moving there allowed him to bulk up and add muscle as he started to get older. If you sort his career by dWAR per season, it's not so obvious that it had a huge impact.
 

derekson

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2010
6,254
To me it's the artificial fielding adjustments built in by position that are unreliable when calculating defensive WAR. What happens when your pitchers have huge strikeout numbers, or have a huge flyball split and you play first base. It's just saying, "well you're playing first, but you're not playing shortstop, so here's our best guess at how things would go if you tried to play there."

Rafaela can certainly play CF, but has never played 2b before this season and it's affecting his value, but not how good he is as a player.

A-Rod (fuck that guy) is another example. He would have had more value at short and could certainly have played their longer, but he is dinged because he was forced to play 3rd and that affected his WAR.
The position adjustment built into WAR that doesn't make sense to me is the DH one. Why should a DH be considered as valuable as a -5 run defensive first baseman (IIRC that's the number). He simply doesn't play defense, and the lineup requires a DH. The position adjustments in general seem a bit subjective or even arbitrary though.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,298
I hope if the Phillies ever sour on Schwarber that they trade him to Colorado so we can play tape measure games at least.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,231
Portland
The position adjustment built into WAR that doesn't make sense to me is the DH one. Why should a DH be considered as valuable as a -5 run defensive first baseman (IIRC that's the number). He simply doesn't play defense, and the lineup requires a DH. The position adjustments in general seem a bit subjective or even arbitrary though.
That's not even taking into account that you have much less wear and tear by batting only vs playing the field. Hard to imagine that David Ortiz would have held up as long as he did had he played 1st.
 

GrandSlamPozo

New Member
May 16, 2017
105
The position adjustment built into WAR that doesn't make sense to me is the DH one. Why should a DH be considered as valuable as a -5 run defensive first baseman (IIRC that's the number). He simply doesn't play defense, and the lineup requires a DH. The position adjustments in general seem a bit subjective or even arbitrary though.
I think that's just a weird quirk in how BBRef calculates WAR. If you subtract their offensive WAR calculation from their total WAR then that gives you a more meaningful measure of their defensive value. If somebody is exclusively a DH then this number should always equal zero.
 

azsoxpatsfan

Does not enjoy the go
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
4,816
This makes logical sense but if you look at his career year by year, I'm not sure it had much of an impact. It's not like he moved to DH, you still get a positional bump for 3B and moving there allowed him to bulk up and add muscle as he started to get older. If you sort his career by dWAR per season, it's not so obvious that it had a huge impact.
Sure, that’s what allowed him to bulk up.

For real though, you mentioned you only use DRS, which is interesting because starting this year I basically only use OAA. We apparently agree the UZR isn’t great, and this might be a different, broader discussion about advanced defensive metrics, but how did you land on DRS?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,219
For real though, you mentioned you only use DRS, which is interesting because starting this year I basically only use OAA. We apparently agree the UZR isn’t great, and this might be a different, broader discussion about advanced defensive metrics, but how did you land on DRS?
Dunno, I see that cited by writers more and it's very easy for me to find? I don't think I spent much time thinking about it, honestly, but you're right, we probably should have a new thread about defensive metrics and how they compare.
 

Sandwich Pick

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2017
713
Harper has to DH for Philly so Schwarber has to play the field. It's not ideal.

Like JMOH I like to see a guy crush 485 foot home runs, and Schwarber's OBP is very good so hitting him leadoff makes a lot of sense. But the defense is abysmal, it's worse than anything you've ever witnessed. Mike Greenwell was Roberto Clemente compared to Schwarber out there.
Harper has been playing 1B a bit this year, as well (29 games) due to the Hoskins injury. I don't know when or if he'll ever return to RF.

Schwarber has been the DH 49 games and Castellanos 8.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,845
Honolulu HI
Harper has to DH for Philly so Schwarber has to play the field. It's not ideal.

Like JMOH I like to see a guy crush 485 foot home runs, and Schwarber's OBP is very good so hitting him leadoff makes a lot of sense. But the defense is abysmal, it's worse than anything you've ever witnessed. Mike Greenwell was Roberto Clemente compared to Schwarber out there.
Why does Harper need to DH? His numbers in the field aren’t good but still far better than Schwarber..