If there's one thing both of those teams need, it's a 1B/DH type...As another wrinkle, if he’s productive and healthy in July for the Royals or whomever, odds are they’ll wanna flip him to the Astros or Yankees.
If there's one thing both of those teams need, it's a 1B/DH type...As another wrinkle, if he’s productive and healthy in July for the Royals or whomever, odds are they’ll wanna flip him to the Astros or Yankees.
If he's cut, the option goes away because the contract ends at that point. If he's traded, the new team assumes the existing contract, including the option.I guess I need clarification if his option is voided if he’s traded as well as if he’s cut. If so, maybe the White Sox and Twins could be in if we pick up $15M or so of his 2018 salary.
Which seems to void any potential interest any team may have. no fringe team wants to be on the hook for that 22 million if he is even kind of good, and no contender is gonna trade for Hanley Ramirez so they can make sure his vesting option kicks in and they have to pay him 22 million next year. Those teams would be better served waiting for us to cut him than trading for himIf he's cut, the option goes away because the contract ends at that point. If he's traded, the new team assumes the existing contract, including the option.
Exactly. And his declaration today that he’s “ready to play 10 more years” could safely be interpreted as he’s not about to be a fourth outfielder.Which seems to void any potential interest any team may have. no fringe team wants to be on the hook for that 22 million if he is even kind of good, and no contender is gonna trade for Hanley Ramirez so they can make sure his vesting option kicks in and they have to pay him 22 million next year. Those teams would be better served waiting for us to cut him than trading for him
It means the Red Sox would have to be willing to subsidize 2 years of the contract if the option is triggered. They could offer to pay $15 million (other team's cost $7 million) in 2018 and $10 million (other team's potential cost $12 million) in 2019 or something, to give the other team both an incentive to take the risk, and limit their incentive to keep playing him if his value falls further.Which seems to void any potential interest any team may have. no fringe team wants to be on the hook for that 22 million if he is even kind of good, and no contender is gonna trade for Hanley Ramirez so they can make sure his vesting option kicks in and they have to pay him 22 million next year. Those teams would be better served waiting for us to cut him than trading for him
A good comp, aside from the fact that Bautista walked far more (career 14.1% to 8.0%), struck out less (18.7% to 25.2%), and was a more extreme flyball hitter (45.5% to 37.9%) and pull hitter (47.0% to 39.1%) with a gigantically lower BABIP (.264 to .341). Matt Kemp (7.4%, 23.3%, 35.8%, 42.1%, .338 on the above stats) still looks like a much better JDM comp to me--and a much less encouraging one.A good comp for JDM is Jose Bautista. Late bloomer kept himself fit like JDM. From age 30-34 he put up a 154 OPS+ and 173 HR. Not much of a fielder besides the gun in RF. That justifies the Red Sox 5 yr commitment for JDM. In Bautistas 35-36 aged seasons decline set in big time. Fitness only carries you so far I guess.
Is it a good idea to compare Martinez to players from the steroid era who may have aged quite differently after 30? Just something to throw in there.Here's an interesting article about JDM and some "comparables" from the last 4 decades:
https://www.mlb.com/news/suitors-can-rely-on-elite-bat-of-jd-martinez/c-265126418
Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of KempA good comp, aside from the fact that Bautista walked far more (career 14.1% to 8.0%), struck out less (18.7% to 25.2%), and was a more extreme flyball hitter (45.5% to 37.9%) and pull hitter (47.0% to 39.1%) with a gigantically lower BABIP (.264 to .341). Matt Kemp (7.4%, 23.3%, 35.8%, 42.1%, .338 on the above stats) still looks like a much better JDM comp to me--and a much less encouraging one.
Based on those averages, looks to me like a 4 year deal for about $25M would be fair; 4 + 1 team option would be fine too. I would say a guaranteed 5 year deal at more than $24M AAV would be generous to the player.Here's an interesting article about JDM and some "comparables" from the last 4 decades:
https://www.mlb.com/news/suitors-can-rely-on-elite-bat-of-jd-martinez/c-265126418
Yup, that's a good ballpark comp. The odd thing is that Cruz looked, for his first couple of years after hitting 30 (i.e., Martinez's age), like he was going to decline pretty quickly, and then he righted the ship and has had a hellacious mid-30s. Kinda like someone else we know, although Ortiz was a bit older when his temporary dip happened.Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp
Cruz is a confirmed user of performance enhancing drugs. Excuse me if I don’t believe he’s clean now either, rather than just one step ahead of the tests.Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp
8.5 BB 22.6 K 41.1 FB 309 BABIP, 39.1 Pull cruz
8.0 Bb 25.2 K 39.1 FB 341 BABIP 37.9 Pull JDM
JDM has a higher LD rate which explains the BABIP
Cruz has aged well as a hitter
Placing JDM's per/year value there arguably ignores the $20m/per Carlos Santana just got. You also seem to be suggesting that the Sox now lower the reported offer already on the table.I'm wondering what Lorenzo Cain's deal means for Martinez. It may bolster Boras's argument for a six-year deal, since Cain is a year and a half older. OTOH, it seems to tamp down the AAV ceiling, because Cain has been, if anything, the better player of the two overall. Granted that power gets paid better than defense and baserunning, it still seems hard to make a solid argument that Martinez should get as much as 150% of Cain's AAV, let alone more than that. So it seems like the number should be somewhere in the $20-$22M range. I would think that if Cain gets 5/80, then Martinez should get maybe 5/110 or 6/125.
Cruz makes a bit more than $16m a year with the Mariners, hitting about 10-20 points lower than Martinez in OPS+.Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp
8.5 BB 22.6 K 41.1 FB 309 BABIP, 39.1 Pull cruz
8.0 Bb 25.2 K 39.1 FB 341 BABIP 37.9 Pull JDM
JDM has a higher LD rate which explains the BABIP
Cruz has aged well as a hitter
The question is how much does JD Martinez have invested in this staredown? This is his only chance to be the focus of an offseason. Is he really willing to go into the season unsigned? I can't see that happening. He's eventually going to have to blink.Boras waited till late May, got Stephen Drew 10m, bumped X off short, while we watched him bat .175 for 2 months until we traded him to the Yankees. So I don't know if its method to the madness or madness to the method, but dude usually gets what he wants.
Don't know where you're getting that. Martinez' OPS+ for the past four years is 149. Cruz's is 147. And the difference is well under 10 whether you make it four years, three, or two (in fact with a three-year slice, Cruz comes out ahead, 151-148). The only time slice where Martinez has an advantage like you describe is the single year 2017.Cruz makes a bit more than $16m a year with the Mariners, hitting about 10-20 points lower than Martinez in OPS+.
Well, looking at Cain's and Santana's contracts suggests that either Cain's agent or the Phillies' GM has a lot of 'splainin' to do, because the better player is definitely getting the worse AAV here. The difference between five years and three explains some of that, but not all of it, I don't think.Placing JDM's per/year value there arguably ignores the $20m/per Carlos Santana just got.
I'm certainly suggesting they shouldn't raise it.You also seem to be suggesting that the Sox now lower the reported offer already on the table.
I don't either, just a reference to Boras really. I think he would be more willing to wait it out that JDM. If I'm a player, I want a normal beginning to my season, not working out at a training academy waiting for the phone to ring.The question is how much does JD Martinez have invested in this staredown? This is his only chance to be the focus of an offseason. Is he really willing to go into the season unsigned? I can't see that happening. He's eventually going to have to blink.
In spite of all the power Boras supposedly wields, he still works at the pleasure of his client. If Martinez wants to sign and get on with things, all he has to do is say the word. I can't see him sitting out just because Boras advises him to do so. If he's sitting, it's his choice.I don't either, just a reference to Boras really. I think he would be more willing to wait it out that JDM. If I'm a player, I want a normal beginning to my season, not working out at a training academy waiting for the phone to ring.
Boras would laugh in his face.What if DD said to Boras, look, every day from here on out that this goes, our offer goes down $250k/yr. So four days go by and the Sox offer goes from 5/125 down to 5/120, etc.
Right. Unless they have some other backup plan for the money that would have gone to Martinez (like signing Darvish), the best move is to just let the offer sit there.Boras would laugh in his face.
Seriously, it's not as though the Red Sox have Martinez hostage here. There are 29 other teams that would add him for the right price. If they start pulling tactics that really only serve to piss off Boras and Martinez, that not only increases the chances they go elsewhere even at a lesser return, but it also poisons the well for future negotiations with Boras clients (if not all free agents). There's a reason those kinds of things don't ever happen in free agent negotiations.
But it appears, from the information we have at our disposal (which isn't much) that DD is fine with NOT signing Martinez. And so if he's fine moving on without Martinez, who cares if Boras laughs in his face.Boras would laugh in his face.
Seriously, it's not as though the Red Sox have Martinez hostage here. There are 29 other teams that would add him for the right price. If they start pulling tactics that really only serve to piss off Boras and Martinez, that not only increases the chances they go elsewhere even at a lesser return, but it also poisons the well for future negotiations with Boras clients (if not all free agents). There's a reason those kinds of things don't ever happen in free agent negotiations.
But this only makes sense if there's a Plan B in place that requires immediate attention. Otherwise there's no pressing need to make a decision - on Boston or JDMs part.But it appears, from the information we have at our disposal (which isn't much) that DD is fine with NOT signing Martinez. And so if he's fine moving on without Martinez, who cares if Boras laughs in his face.
As for future ramifications, do you think Boras is going to not negotiate with the Red Sox in the future, given that they are one of the biggest spending teams in all of baseball with a willingness to open their checkbooks? I don't think so.
And this can be explained as a one-off thing. Look, we've had this offer out there for months now...we've been very patient but we do need to move on if Martinez isn't interested. So this is our offer, and it's only going down from here....
Let Boras be pissed. He's not going to NOT explore the Red Sox with future clients just because he's butthurt. If he does, his clients should quickly be done with him.
Apologies, BRef has three lines of 166, 163, 168 for JDM but that's his 2017 breakout by team. Though a 20 point difference in the most recent, relevant year is nothing to sneeze at.Don't know where you're getting that. Martinez' OPS+ for the past four years is 149. Cruz's is 147. And the difference is well under 10 whether you make it four years, three, or two (in fact with a three-year slice, Cruz comes out ahead, 151-148). The only time slice where Martinez has an advantage like you describe is the single year 2017.
One thing about Santana, FWIW--he has so far shown an extreme oppo tendency on fly balls. Nearly all his hard-hit balls to straightaway left are line drives that would probably go for doubles or even (since he is not apparently afflicted with speed) singles. And some of his most prolific FB power is in precisely the direction where power in Fenway goes to die. Five of his oppo home runs would have been in play in Fenway last year -- and Fenway is one of only two parks in the AL (the other being Kaufmann) where more than one of those HR would have been catchable.Sign Darvish, trade ERod for Domingo Santana?
Not true only 2 of his home runs were hit under 22 degree which is the cutoff for monster home runs.Nearly all his hard-hit balls to straightaway left are line drives that would probably go for doubles or even (since he is not apparently afflicted with speed) singles.
Ah, good catch. So most of them are line drives by Statcast's definition, but just barely.Not true only 2 of his home runs were hit under 22 degree which is the cutoff for monster home runs.
Should be plan A.Sign Darvish, trade ERod for Domingo Santana?
I’m also warming up to it, as unlikely as it may be. Don’t get JDM, get the next JDM.Should be plan A.
Kinda has a Arroyo for Wily Mo vibe to it.The only downside is that Santana probably wouldn't see much of the field And then you've moved one of your best pieces for an unproven, (though cost controlled) DH.
You would really have to bank on his break out being his new established level.
Regardless of whether they move E-Rod for anyone - if the price is reasonable for Darvish, I'd still be interested in him over JDM, since finding another cheap bat is a lot easier than finding an ace.